[kristopolous]

Facebook continues to follow the Yahoo and AOL trajectory of exceptional and generous engineering contributions amidst an increasingly disliked suite of commercial offerings.

Reminds me of a project idea where you list out all the big companies that have GitHub projects like Comcast, Walmart, Verizon, Target and even https://github.com/mcdcorp

[ldjkfkdsjnv]

Actually think that behind the scenes facebook is rapidly innovating on ai and integrating it into its ad targeting. Mets is on fire

[KevinAgain]

Sounds squarely within the "increasingly disliked suite of commercial offerings"

[omeze]

Instagram and Whatsapp? Even Quest as a platform has tens of millions. All of these are still up and to the right in terms of user numbers and revenue

[IshKebab]

Instagram maybe, but do WhatsApp and Quest actually make money? WhatsApp is free and has no advertising (so far). Quest is very niche.

Yeah I looked it up. Quest costs Meta $5.7bn for $1bn in revenue.

[kleinsch]

Click-to-message is $10B/year, click-to-message in WhatsApp alone was $1.5B 1.5 years ago. They make buckets of money from business services on WhatsApp.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/15/metas-next-profit-...

[solardev]

What are those? (In the US, only used WhatsApp for DMing Europeans).

[kredd]

I guess, WhatsApp business just never caught up on our side of the world, but every time I’m outside of US/Canada, there will be some sort of business (like a restaurant) that will contact me through it. Assuming they’re making some pennies from WhatsApp Business.

[nuthje]

Their commercial offering is advertisement, which seems to be liked.

[kristopolous]

Does it? All the stuff I've read complains about abysmal performance on Facebook and how it's money spent poorly unless you're trying to scam naive consumers.

There was a time where I'd see Coca cola advertising on Facebook. That time is gone.

Last post from coca cola is August 2022 https://m.facebook.com/profile.php/?id=100064359142431

The number of top tier brands engaging is going down

[kredd]

I just opened Facebook to see what I’d see on the app, and just a couple of scrolls gave me: Planet Fitness, Expedia and a bunch of airline ads.

People will always complain how something doesn’t work, how they pulled out their ad money and etc. But then you see ad spend growth on every big platform.

[riskable]

It's a simple equation: Money spent on ads will go where the users (ears and eyeballs) are. By providing fine-grained targeting an advertising platform can extract more money from "the long end of the tail" which is where most of the money lives.

The rule for selling ads is: Know your users.

The rule for buying ads is: Know their users.

[alex_chang]

You're using a brand advertiser as an example when you should be using direct response advertiser as your example. Brand advertisers pay the least since their advertising is predicated on reaching a lot of people cheaply multiple times while direct advertisers pay the most since their advertising is predicated on getting people to convert immediately and judge their return accordingly.

The fact that you don't see Coca Cola ads means that Meta is able to find advertisers willing to pay more than them to reach you that you are more likely to convert immediately on.

[RugnirViking]

weirdly, for my link that redirected to my countries' local coca-cola facebook brand page (denmark) which has its latest post 1 hour ago (8th feb 2023). I didnt know that kind of location-based redirect was a thing on facebook, interesting.

[subtra3t]

Plenty of brands still advertise om Instagram.

[NBJack]

Can say with certainty that it's on fire alright, in the sense that the ad data is burning away.

The rapid innovation is a survival tactic. They know the ads boat is sinking, and unlike other tech companies, they don't have much diversity in their revenue. Hence the Metaverse, AI, etc. which although neat, are not exactly making the same level of money for the organization (at least not yet). In Q4 2023, ads had a revenue of ~$38B, while the Quest revenue was a loss of $4B. AI hasn't been directly monetized directly, so it's harder to say how that's doing.

Given how critical good data is to a model, I'm not optimistic this will work for them.

[riskable]

It's sad, really: Meta could be making amazing VR headsets and transforming the way people use them by making them more general-purpose (like PCs) but instead they're making VR headsets into toys. Even the Quest Pro, which was meant to be for business use, was a locked-down, hard-to-hack (aka hard for developers to fully utilize) Android toy. And when I say "toy" I mean, it's the software equivalent of a hard plastic device with tamper-resistant screws and "no user serviceable parts" intent.

Their dead-set focus on data collection and advertising is sabotaging their ability to make (potentially billions in) revenue from traditional models. I know Zuckerberg and many other CEOs want their "core business" to be just one thing with all the other businesses being offshoots of that one thing but the reality is that they've become too big for that. Zuck needs to give up on the idea of, "our business is data collection and targeted ads for consumers" and realize the truth: Their business is technology.

[PaulHoule]

Personally I miss a lot of features in the Meta Quest 3 which would be helpful for making location based experiences (turn your local natural history museum into "Jurassic Park") such as having a persistent SLAM model and being able to at least use the camera to read and locate QR codes or, say, compute the pose of a person and overlay them with a video game character. I think though Meta is worried about the privacy implications of those things.

On the other hand, those LBEs have an antagonistic relationship with headset adoption. If everybody had a headset than there would be nothing special about MR experiences. For LBEs to be viable you want headsets to be capable and inexpensive but not widely adopted. (I almost wish it could be Winter 2024 forever) I'd imagine a headset vendor would like to charge me more for using a headset for an LBE than they would want to charge a ordinary user but on the other hand people who are blown away by an LBE (very possible) might go home and buy their own headset.

As for their vision, Meta seems to be doing really well running an app store for single-player games. I haven't seen a real multiplayer hit yet but I guess Demo Battles comes close. Meta knows what they'd like to do if they could create something like OASIS from Ready Player One but a close analysis of how Horizon Worlds falls short of that reveals how difficult that is. I guess anybody who can afford a seat of Dassault 3DExperience can also afford an AVP, maybe many Blender users can afford an MQ3. It's not clear to me at all what, past games and entertainment, is going to be a mass market in XR.

[ysofunny]

because they wanna get into the video game business

alas, microsoft owns that space

[riskable]

Actually, Valve owns that space. They have 132 million active monthly users. For comparison, Xbox has 120 million. Seems like only a minor lead until you look at the revenue: Steam (Valve) brings in ~$8 billion in revenue whereas Xbox brings in ~$4 billion.

Microsoft's operating overhead with Xbox is also vastly greater than Steam. Supposedly they make ~$28 every time they sell an Xbox One. That's based on just the manufacturing/parts cost of the hardware and doesn't include the costs associated with developing the hardware itself where they don't just take off-the-shelf chips and throw in an existing OS (like the Steam Deck) but instead custom-engineer a processor/architecture and make their own custom operating system.

[PaulHoule]

If anybody wanted to take a dominant place in the industry they’d buy Valve but Valve is not for sale. For instance, if Gamestop has bought Valve at the top they’d have an answer to the problem of digital downloads eliminating both the buy and sell sides at Gamestop.

[ysofunny]

yea, you're technically correct

what I was trying to say is that microsoft owns the developer space, Valve has been a tough contender but also, microsoft has never gone straight against valve probably because the business wigs consider videogames less important than microsoft's other businesses.

so I should have said that while Valve may own the marketplace (the "app store") microsoft still owns what it takes to make a game in the first place. which is why facebook doesn't really stand a chance against MS. this also explainss how it came to pass that nobody cared about zuckerberg's metaverse... the metaverse didn't get access to the really cool graphic engines

[ysofunny]

Meta should buy (merge with, gobble up) Valve

I bet Microsoft would hate this

[robotnikman]

Please no. Valve is doing fine on its own as a privately owned company.

[ysofunny]

I'm not saying it'll be good for people, users, and gamers. but my business intuition says it's a good corporate move

[treyd]

What good do you suppose would come of that?

[te_chris]

Meanwhile high earning millennials quit instagram because the product mostly sucks. Hell of a cathedral they’re building though.

[eru]

Wouldn't be the null-hypothesis be that it's just a generational thing?

[ysofunny]

instagram is only one of their brands, it's like people quitting Budweiser... the corporation owns most other beer brands so they aren't really affected

[te_chris]

They all left facebook for IG. Whatsapp doesn't monetise and basically can't.

[zer00eyz]

>> innovating on ai and integrating it into its ad targeting.

Summer child.

No one who has add space to sell wants an efficient, accurate market. Those inefficiencies create competition, create volume create profit for those with ad space to sell.

The ad market had more effective targeting and better ROI 10 years ago than it does today.

Go and try to run a CPA campaign at any cost... you can't. It's all display add's CPM garbage, carpet bomb for pennies.

[ysofunny]

exactly,

when Facebook actually did do this, Cambridge Analytica happened which is how they were forced to let 'higher order' (i.e. shady) players have the tweak-able ad-targetting marketplace they know and love

[queuebert]

Meanwhile, still no cure for cancer.

[daavidhauser]

+1

[paxys]

Funny how people "hate" them yet they have 4 billion active users and generate $135 billion in annual revenue. A better explanation is that outside of the HN bubble Meta's product offerings are insanely popular.

[sirpunch]

I find it fascinating how much Meta's business and HN sentiment towards anything Meta are mutually exclusive.

[yedava]

At one time cigarettes were also as popular as Meta's products.

[paxys]

So were toothpaste and laundry detergent and diapers, and demand for those hasn't exactly gone away.

[yedava]

When you buy diapers you are paying for the manufacturing cost and the profit margin. When you use Meta's products, what are you paying for? That's what makes them closer to cigarettes. Tobacco companies sold a lie to their customers.

Meta too sells the lie that its products are paid for by ads. Its products are paid for by surveilling users, building behavioral profiles from the data that is collected, and then giving other companies access to that behavioral data in order to manipulate users to specific ends. In this quest to build better behavioral profiles, the products are made to be as addictive as possible, eating away people's time which could have been utilized in objectively better ways.

[sirpunch]

Not sure why you're making it sound like a conspiracy theory. User behavior profiling is common strategy for all personalized IR products, including recommender systems, targeted ads, web search, e-commerce, and many more. A bunch of major tech companies rely on it. Do you think Google AdSense is also an evil empire? What about Apple and Amazon ramping up their own ads businesses? More people use YouTube than Meta products and even spend more minutes per day there. Do you also think YouTube is also equivalent to cigarettes? What about TikTok, Twitch, and other streaming platforms? Was Doordash also wrong for setting up personalized ads and recommendations?

[yedava]

User behavior profiling wouldn't be bad if and only if users owned the data and had complete control of what is done it. Currently the legal/political system isn't equipped to handle this new technological assault on digital property and it will remain that way as long as long people keep hand waving it away. Imagine the same callous attitude being applied to real estate or other physical property.

[ynx]

You're only minorly wrong in that they don't sell access to the behavioral data [1] , but you do realize that you sound absolutely unhinged about it, right? Is HN surveilling my post because I typed here and pressed the 'reply' button?

I've never convinced someone of flaws in ethics by framing the perpetrator as a big bad boogeyman to the nth degree. It's unproductive self-satisfaction.

[1] They sell visibility to people queried against proprietary behavioral data.

[yedava]

There is mounting evidence that social media harms mental health[1]. I'm pretty sure when links between smoking and cancer were being established, there were plenty of people calling that evidence "unhinged", particularly if the evidence hurt their paychecks. Not saying that such people were willfully malicious, but that there are strong cognitive biases in favor of ignoring anything that can hurt their livelihoods.

https://www.afterbabel.com/p/the-teen-mental-illness-epidemi...

[ksec]

HN Hated Facebook since its inception. There used to be people on HN defending Facebook, as a stock, or as an ad platform. Post 2015 on HN all ads are evil. Barely anyone defending them or Online ads anymore.

[yedava]

Facebook is also one of pioneers in making mass surveillance the norm. The promise of technology has been used to prey on society.

[ahoka]

By dumping over-engineered crap nobody actually needs while becoming the Nestle of software companies?

[sirpunch]

This HN bandwagon again. Meta has had an astounding yoy growth. Did you even see their Q4 report.

[kristopolous]

And AOL's stock had a 500% return in the 2010s... Yahoo had 300%.

Are you saying people like Facebook's new features like the suggested posts and what they've done to Instagram? Was their VR product line secretly a success?

These things eventually catch up.

There's also a number of fairly bad bets they've made, such as the $1 bln kustomer acquisition they spun out at a 75% loss after a year https://techcrunch.com/2023/05/16/kustomer-meta-spin-out/

They have enough capital and trust to stumble around for a while but they sure look like they're yahooing

[sirpunch]

I absolutely love Instagram app and my friend circle actively uses it. I'm not a big fan of Facebook, but I come back to Facebook groups and marketplace fairly frequently. What's your metric to measure this general propensity? DAU? MAU? Vibes?

Sure, the company may not exist 10 years from now. But there's no downfall indicator yet for this trillion dollar giant. All companies that size have headwinds and tailwinds. The self-assurance you see on this platform for Meta's sure shot upcoming decline is just absurd.

[kristopolous]

People on https://www.reddit.com/r/Instagram/top/?t=month hate what Facebook has done. Click around a bit

This brand looks extremely vulnerable

[firtoz]

I know a lot of people who really love Instagram and I'm a big fan of Threads as well as the VR. I know it's anecdotal, but AMA.

[sofixa]

YoY growth and quarterly earnings report don't give you a full picture of how much a company is liked (which is important for b2c companies like Facebook) and how well it is actually performing for the medium/long term.

GE and Boeing also had amazing YoY growth and great quarterly reports, until the underlying dumpster fire they were nurturing for years exploded in their faces and now they don't have growth nor profits anymore.

[sirpunch]

You could say the same thing about every big company. Apple has headwinds from sales in China and US-China trade wars, Tesla is trailing BYD and seeing declining EV demand, and so on. Every large company has something or the other going on. But I find it funny that every new project from Apple is reminiscent of iPhone 1 while it's the Yahoo path for everything from Meta.

[test6554]

If they are relying on headset sales… competition is about to heat up. Ive been waiting for anyone but meta to come out with a decent, affordable kit and I think were almost there.

[ksec]

This got me thinking if anyone interested in starting a HN Hedge Fund. HNHF? XD

[lukevp]

What did yahoo and AOL contribute?

[ralph84]

Hadoop, AOLserver, early support for Mozilla

[speedgoose]

Yahoo had YUI which fell out of fashion.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/YUI_Library

[mtmail]

Yahoo released their geographic data catalogue under open license and it still lives on as https://whosonfirst.org/

Afaik https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apache_ZooKeeper started at Yahoo

https://vespa.ai/ was Yahoo's search engine for news and other content product, now spinned off (https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/04/yahoo-spins-out-vespa-its-...)

[therein]

Apache Traffic Server, AOLserver (no idea why I used this a long time ago)

[bemusedthrow75]

AOLServer was interesting, yeah. A useful counterpoint to Netscape Application Server, and quite influential over mod_perl and PHP.

[fragmede]

yahoo pipes

[ysofunny]

all because they aren't in the data-center cloud provider business