@dang anything mentioning Wagner group is being flagged off the main page, I could see why some people would react that way when there’s a 20 articles shared about the same thing in an hour, but it’s a bit disturbing that there’s currently zero articles on the front page about this
There is a more and zero chance that those flags are not from general user accounts. Also @danf doesn't actually taf him from what I have read, there is an option at the bottom of the page(apparently, I've never used it XD)
I would bet it’s almost entirely authentic flagging. News about Russia’s invasion has a lot of propaganda and unverified reporting, and I imagine HN users are tired and skeptical of anything on the news about it.
For context, I’m not at all denying the invasion or how awful it is. I’m only saying there is extreme hyperbole at times in the same way there is about controversial political figures in the US
There is precedent for hackernews covering unusually large and important events. Covid, Jan 6th, the start of the Ukraine War. I don't see the problem with some general news of large scale importance, e.g., a hostile mercenary force is a 4 hour drive away from the capital of the state with the largest supply of nuclear weapons
Agree we shouldn't lose focus but this seems rare and important enough to be worth discussing.
From the guidelines of what is off-topic
"Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, or celebrities, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon."
Slashdot used to get complaints like this all the time (maybe still does, wouldn't know). They would be followed by a recitation of the Slashdot motto: "News for nerds, stuff that matters. This is a story that matters." Usually shut people up immediately. HN also suffers nerds not wanting to hear about anything except nerd shit, but we don't have a handy shorthand to shut down these tedious complaints.
I mean, I get your point that others programmers are not usually were I go for political wisdom. But it's not like mainstream news website have a better alternative for discussion either. Their comment sections tend to be completely saturated with far right incel fanaticism and low brow outrage. HN, at least, is not that.
I didn't know about swiftcentre, or metaculus and I'm fascinated by it. That's exactly the software engineer approach to this topic i like to see when i come here.
What you’re implying is not true at all. I am massively critical of online moderation and dang and his team definitely curate a lot but it’s done very transparently when potentially controversial and he has an extremely reputable track record
This like AOE2, where an enemy quietly cuts through the huge forest and the enemy suddenly appears in your base when most of your army is at the front. Your front is wrecked if you run back, and your game is wrecked if you don’t.
I am seeing a lot of conjecture and not a lot of substance. Is this whole thing based on a couple telegram videos? Is there anything to suggest they aren’t just propaganda deepfakes?
The fog of war over Ukraine does continue to frustrate. You really wish there was live, perfect info sources to keep you in the know, but even ten years from now there are sure to be questions.
Edit: just got through the most recent episode and want to warn that it’s a bit crazy conspiratorial, but interesting…
Here’s a pretty good source of almost realtime updates, one of the large pro-war Tg channels. If you are on paid Telegram membership, I think it allows to translate all content.
Not a fan of such media, but I’m from Rostov area so had to subscribe today to stay tuned.
It definitely is real, that the head of Wagner, which acted as Putins man of brute shadow force - is now an enemy of Putin. This was coming since a while, since Prigoshin stepped over the line many times and he refused the ultimatum by the Russian Ministry of Defence, to put Wagner Forces tightly under MoD control. And now things are escalating.
Everything else is filled with deepfakes, old footage and co
But Wagner forces are around 25 000. It is not clear how loyal the bulk of them are towards Prigoshin personally (I have my doubts) but many russian russians share the hate for the MoD.
And there is solid evidence, that they control some area.
Not him, but for the last two years, I aggressively unfollowed all sources that posted wrong or premature information. I kept only those who limited themselves to what was confirmed and openly admitted error in case of mistake.
It is doable. With that strategy, I get more cautious news, not the hottest of the hot stuff, but I am pretty sure thing is happening now.
If you put it into Google, you will find exactly that from multiple sources.
I do not know which accounts or news agencies you find reputable, so I do not know which one to link so you trust it. But you yourself should know which journals or accounts you trust.
I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".
They are still hundreds of miles away from Moscow. In a textbook coup you seize centers of power and media stations as fast as you can but this attempt is on the slow side (certainly the physical size of Russia is helping too).
For now it is "only" an armed rebellion, I guess. And depending on how it unfolds it could be a lot of things.
I think that this sort of thing is not very frequent in contemporary, or even modern, history, but it is very reminiscent of Roman history.
If I understood correctly, the leader was (originally?) claiming to be attacking an element in the military leadership he felt was responsible for a major friendly fire incident. It appears things have progressed from there, and it's possible or even likely that a coup is and always was the intent, but it's not _certain_.
The way i see a coup is usually people are in the capital. Here it's the equivalent distance of austria from Paris so there's just no "coup" at all, it's at best a "publicized attempt to stage a coup"...
I can't speak for a Russians perspective of saving face, as I'm an unrelated outsider.
Nonetheless, if Russia ceases their aggression after this then it wouldn't have been defeated by Ukraine. You'd basically end up with non-patriots having caused the loss, as such you'll have a group of people to blame.
This. Especially now that after Putins speech/plea on national TV[0] for the army to put a stop on the rebellion, Wagner in telegram appears to have stated: “Putin made the wrong choice. ... Soon we will have a new president".[1]
So by this logic this is just a mutiny? To become a proper coup they would have to replace the government and the president who if I understand correctly is formally the leader of the military. In order to do that they should be marching towards the capital. Since this is what appears to be in progress, is it unreasonable to call it a "possible coup in progress"?
Not sure about mutiny, because he is not a soldier, technically. He is the leader of illegal but tolerated private mercenary company. (Yep Wagner are theoretically illegal per Russian law)
I am definitely not blaming anyone for calling it "possible coup" or "coup" or even "an attempt to start civil war". The original intent was to explain that coup in quotation marks is also alright term to use.
Edit: every single time I write "wagner are technically illegal in Russia" I get downvoted in HN. It is pattern at this point. So, guys, if that was reason for downvote, yep they are illegal per Russian law.
I suppose you could call it a mutiny in the sense that Wagner is being told by the state that it is now explicitly under the command of Shoigu, and Prighozin is refusing, which has led to what is now happening: an attempt to put down a rebellion and a mutiny.
That was Prigozhin originally position. He offered support to the president and the government, just not Shoigu.
But things might have changed since that first statement, because since then Putin has now come out on Russian TV denouncing the uprising and calling it high treason.
So, it would appear things are starting to escalate.
Personally, if this was a coup, I’d say Wagner would have taken control of important infrastructure by now (e.g. the Kremlin, state tv, military depots, Putin / defence minister). Or been killed/arrested himself.
This feels more like a civil war. It might not last long of course. We’ll see.
Wagner Group [1] is a mercenary company, by the way, named after German composer Richard Wagner [1]. Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin [2] is reportedly the founder and owner.
(Wagner is not a person. Or am I misreading: who does "himself" refer to?)
If January 6th disorganized mob breaching into government building can be considered a coup, then organized military force taking control over 2 major cities in Russia is definitely a coup.
It's also not entirely clear that Prighozin can get from here to there. Not least because he's a madman.
My uninformed read is that what he's enraged about (a Russian strike on a Wagner encampment) actually took place, and he knows he's now a dead man walking anyway, so he's going to see what he can do with the time he has left.
I think Prighozin is as insane as the idiots who thought they could interfere with the count, and I have no idea if he's seriously considering taking out Putin.
But let's be clear, the crowd breaking into the Capitol wasn't the entirety of the coup attempt, and even to write that part down as just a disorganised mob is incorrect.
What was going on is better understood as an autogolpe -- a self-coup. It had several prongs -- violent, parliamentary (in the congressional sense of the word) and judicial. So, fake electors, lawsuits, attempt to persuade Pence not to count, interfering with results in several states, and the physical insurrection.
The aim was to create a scenario where the handover just didn't happen, through all these interlocking parts.
But the crowd could only ever have created the circumstances that delayed certification (and might have pulled that off, had Pence got in the car).
It was much more co-ordinated than we have yet seen documented in courts, but that time is coming.
This always being left out by those decrying the classification as a coup attempt is a tacit admission of the whole scheme actually being a coup. Only by leaving it out they can make it seem like it was anything less.
Right. And I think it's often misunderstood that these parts don't actually need to have been under strict, detailed co-ordination to work, because the whole thing just needs to be set in motion when you have teams of people who can react on the ground.
But some people had advance plans to create pressure in the knowledge that it might lead to disorder, and then exploit the uncertainty in the moment. It could really all have happened, and it hinges on small moments of bravery that are well documented now but that many of those involved seem hesitant to admit to in public, which shows you that the landscape of threat still exists.
To clarify: the fact that I think Prighozin is insane shouldn't be read as support for Putin.
But he's a madman whose organisation has committed atrocities in several countries; if he is Russia's hope for an end to Putin, that is not a good scenario.
I am curious on how this will reflect on the Ukraine invasion: as far as I understand, Wagner was a huge source of soldiers on the front lines.
I am sure this coup, however it will ends, is a major source of distraction from the war. Meanwhile, Ukraine is pushing east: will they be able to use this coup to liberate some territories?
What is the state of decentralized betting platforms where people can place crypto on their predictions?
Shouldn't that give us the best possible predictions? Everybody with expertise or inside knowledge who sees the probabilities are off would rush in, place bets and "correct" the probabilities while making a profit.
The people who have legitimate inside information are billionaires and I doubt the market would be that deep. And it's a genuine coup, so the outcome is fundamentally unknowable. But yeah, historically prediction markets are great for stuff like this.
As of 11:05 cest, 2023-06-24, manifold thinks Russia will curb wagner group, and reaching moscow is at 10%. It id considered a serious attempt (95%). Expect a civil war by July 14 (70%).
They are in Voronezh now on their way to capture local airfield - regular Russian units backfilled with conscripts (the good ones were all decimated in Ukraine) won't take on Wagner troops on the ground.
Multiple videos from apartment dwellers in Voronezh of a KH-52 destroying a tank farm. Either Wagner was fueling up there or the Russian military is trying to deny fuel to Wagner, or both.
A modern Russian meme is "to bomb Voronezh". A typical joke went like: "Obama ordered new sanctions on Russia; Putin retaliated by bombing Voronezh". Voronezh, a quaint provincial town south off Moscow, is unremarkable by itself, an Anytown, Russia. Bombing Voronezh is a hyperbola describing the favorite game of Russian ruler, - to punish his citizens for his own mistakes. T
Ed Nash is a military analyst who has provided factual information in the past. This video includes a translated statement from the leader of Wagner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIY3OfSU1VY
Will current regime resort to use of nuclear weapons against Wagner formations as they approach Moscow? After all, the state and the power regime are facing an existential risk.
While russia nuking themselves would be hilarious end of the current clown fiesta, I don't think they are that stupid, there is no way to explain that to public in favourable way to whichever side is left standing
> While russia nuking themselves would be hilarious end of the current clown fiesta
Oh dropping nuclear bombs on place-where-I-don’t-live is so funny hahahaha it’s not like nuclear weapons have been a genuine threat since WWII and still is hahaha.
I'm quite disturbed that you think a nuclear genocide on the Russian people would be "hilarious". It would be a humanitarian disaster and an almost unprecedented tragedy.
Let's not participate in the vilification of the Russian people.
Sorry, I ran out of fucks somewhere in the middle of COVID. Them nuking their own army/PMC themselves would be small price if that ended Ukraine's conflict
> Let's not participate in the vilification of the Russian people.
I'm vilifying their leadership. But I'm still amazed there is no revolt there
At what point are the citizens of a country responsible for what the country's military is doing?
Note: not advocating for a nuclear genocide, but I do feel that citizens become culpable if they are allowing their country to stop on others and they aren't protesting or emigrating (if possible)
Nope, I'd think that if ever something so bizzare would happen it would be tactical nuke targeted at bigger gathering of wagner forces. Little hitler at power there wouldn't care of a village or two got wiped if alternative was coup succeeding.
Russia nuking themselves does not imply that tho. It would be same humanitarian catastrophe as Russia nuking Ukraine, Russia blowing up that nuclear plant in Ukraine they are currently likely planning to blow, Russia blowing up the damm.
Meaning, it would be exactly the same humanitarian disaster as Russia is comiting elsewhere right now. Only difference is that a.) nationality of innocent victims b.) event that harms Russia itself as opposed event that harms countries around Russia.
I'm not sure what you mean here. I'm not saying we should somehow care more about Russians than about anyone else. I just don't think Putin nuking cities with millions of people would be hilarious in any sense of the word, and I don't see how that changes based on which side of the border it's on.
Basically, you say that if two killers will shoot each one, then it's the exact same tragedy as when they shot innocents. In your eyes, offender and defender are both innocent people.
They haven't started killing people for using VPNs yet so I think more correct statement is that they are too stupid to look for that access, or too ignorant or brainwashed to keep believing official propaganda.
Nuclear genocide != nuclear suicide. Russian people started the war. Majority of Russians support war with Ukraine even today, with hope that they kill all Ukrainians and occupy their territory, to show their power to Rotten West. They sad that their leader is too weak to nuke Washington and London.
"...it is distressing to see the [British] press grovelling in the gutter as low as Goebbels in his prime, shrieking that any German commander who holds out in a desperate situation (when, too, the military needs of his side clearly benefit) is a drunkard, and a besotted fanatic. ... There was a solemn article in the local [Oxford] paper seriously advocating systematic exterminating of the entire German nation as the only proper course after military victory: because, if you please, they are rattlesnakes, and don't know the difference between good and evil! (What of the writer?) The Germans have just as much right to declare the Poles and Jews exterminable vermin, subhuman, as we have to select the Germans: in other words, no right, whatever they have done."
J.R.R. Tolkien, 1944, in a letter to his son, commenting on British war-time propaganda.
Regarding your Ask HN thread - some years ago I used (well, tried to) a small smartphone stylus which 'docked' in the headphone socket so it would be always with the phone. It wasn't good for me, because it wasn't sensitive enough for sketching, but overall it was fine for navigating the UI.
If your phone has no 3.5 jack but you use a case it can be attached to the case.
Maybe you can try to use a notebook style case, so your palms would sweat the case, not the phone and therefore you would have a bit less trouble with false touches.
Point of nukes is deterring other country. If your opponent is not country than there is little use for nukes because there is no target. That is why terrorism was such big topic for US/Russia for last two decades.
It might be strange to say, but Putin is not an absolute dictator. He could not order the use of nuclear weapons on a whim, and have that obeyed throughout the chain. The Russian system will be much more sophisticated than that.
https://thebulletin.org/2022/03/read-the-fine-print-russias-...
No direct attack is needed. Both Dems and Reps said they would trigger article 5 on the event of a nuclear accident or attack in Ukraine that would result in irradiation of NATO territory.
Would the new regime resort to the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine or anyone else?
As unpredictable and irrational as he's become, there's some comfort in Putin's track record of staying off the button. I really hope these events don't cause him to start getting YOLOy
I've had the exact thought, it looks as if we are further descending into apocalyptic territory.
You have people capable of extreme destruction being cornered into an existential state, leaving them with very little rational options. This is when the irrational options starts appearing very rational..
True or not, what if this appears like a western backed coup to Putin and his inner circle. The kind of retaliations such an action would call for is unimaginable.
I'm not sure the Kremlin is full of irrational individuals ready see their country totally annihilated.
I suspect the Kremlin is full of self-serving individuals determined to look after their own self-interest. They'll be happy to see Putin hang on, provided of course his success aligns with their success.
But if their interests could be better served supporting someone else, they will quickly flip allegiances.
I'm inclined to agree with your line of thinking but my comment was on the second and third order consequences of what just happened.
When you put rational people in extremely chaotic situations, they tend to make very irrational choices.
As of just a few hours ago we just entered a world where the following is an actual possibility, albeit an unlikely possibility:
Prigozhin closes in, creating an existential crises for Putin and his inner circle.
They believe this is a western backed coup where defeat isn't just personal but also defeat for Russia.
Putin & his inner circle are put in a position to consider retaliation under the context of a rapidly deteriorating existential crises.
I'm a voracious consumer of history and I can tell the one thing you learn from history is how a set of seemingly unrelated harmless dominos change the world overnight whether if its the death of a duke from a second tier power or the ambition of a failed artist.
I could see the probability of a deranged Putin ordering nuclear strikes within Russia going up, but I think the probability of his order being followed will go down accordingly. It's not as if Putin can actually launch the nukes unilaterally.
It was other city far from Moscow. What I see is civilians are split in 2 camps , young ones that follow social media will probably be in one camp and old people that only follow TV will be in other camp. Let's see what is next.
And I see that a few started blaming USA, Israel and nazis for this.
Long term it will lead to substantial power movement.
Most of the young nationalistic russians are Wagner fans and despise the ordinary military, they view as corrupt and incompetent (which might be very true).
But they have been the fuel of the war. If Wagner is no more, or just a soulless hulk, this fuel is gone and moral will drop significantly.
And the current options for Prigoshin are
a) become a marty
b) submit to "justice" and public trial (but he knows this will likely not happen, but rather bullet or poison)
c) defect to Ukraine
He already made clear statements, that the war was wrong from the beginning, there was never a threat from Ukraine and the evil military commanders gave Putin wrong information. This sounds to me like building a bridge.
In either case, for the russian empire it is a desaster. And if it becomes a true desaster, there are chances it will become a disaster for everyone, as russian think tanks openly discussed the possibility of "preemptive counter nuclear strike". If they are about to die, they are willing to take everyone with them.
Mostly this is surely bluffing, as they made that statement, while they the internal power struggle was already ongoing as a message to the west: "don't exploit our weakness, we still have nukes". But partly I think it is a legit threat of cornered bullies.
Me currently neither. But this seems to be his only choice, where he would go on living. I am sure, there are secret negotiations taking place behind the scenes.
But he knows, that he will confirm in the eye of the russian public, that he is a traitor then. But officially he already is and his loyal forces can never take Moscow.
It gets pretty weird, apparently there is now some kind of deal where he gets to abscond to Belarus and Wagner soldiers will be placed under regular Russian command.
Vova will have to purge whatever is left after this coup.
Doing so will make an already paper-tiger of an army/bureaucracy even worse off, as paranoia and shows of loyalty will be paramount, not effective fighting ability. Think North Korea, but even more so.
Whatever command structure of the army is left will have even worse of a time in Ukraine and, especially, in Crimea.
Vova is running out of cards to play, Wagner having now taken some double-digit percent of his remaining deck.
When Ukraine pushes into Crimea, the chances of nukes going off goes up a lot now.
Is that actually confirmed? As in, is there a reason to believe it happened and that it is not some old video from elsewhere resurfacing? (People always post old videos on twitter claiming they relate to current situation.)
It was inevitable - this is what happens when you allow private armies as a business. Nearly a century ago, when the British government decided to take control of a private army the British empire ultimately collapsed because of the backlash from the corporates who ran it. Putin is right to act swiftly and harshly against this kind of behaviour before they become an actual threat to the nation - Mercenaries, unlike national armies, tend to prioritise money and power. (In fact, the harsh action against them seems to suggest that is exactly how the Russians are looking at it - that this group has been paid to rebel).
The reason they had a private army was to do dirty stuff in Africa that would cause an international incident if the Russian military was involved directly. Without Wagner, it'd have been much harder for Russia to force project.
The core problem is the poorly managed war; Wagner'd be unlikely to rebel if the war was going well and everyone was satisfied with the Russian leadership.
Private Armies or Private Military Contractors are desired by governments who want to deflect political accountability, and, to that end, Russian leadership isn't any different to the west on how they've been using them. In the Ukraine conflict, the Wagner group has often been used as cannon fodder. Especially in Bakhmut, where the Ukranians recently lost the bulk of their real soldiers, good soldiers, while the brunt of Russian losses was borne by the Wagner group and not the Russian military. (That is one explanation of why the Wagner group is pissed at Russian military, and, thus, the mutiny).
I agree with your perspective that certain aspects of the war weren't managed well by Russia, but disagree that war isn't going well for Russia - they appear to have achieved 80% of their strategic objectives by annexing Crimea and bordering areas of Ukraine, and holding on to it while Ukranian counter-offensives have failed to dislodge the Russians. In fact military experts in both US (Ukraine’s Chances of Victory in 2023 are Vanishingly Small - https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/06/ukraines-chances-of-vict... ) and India (Final Battle In Russia-Ukraine War? - https://youtu.be/D0oA-Y5eTs4 ) agree that the chances of a Ukraine counter-offensive being successful are quite low.
Can someone tell me why Putin let it get this far? It seems pretty foreseeable that when you have two independent militaries in constant conflict with each other, and when the heads of both are publicly insulting and threatening each other that eventually this will boil over. Did he just need Wagner that badly that he tolerated the open insults to his military as long as they were winning battles in Ukraine?
Didn't the head of Wagner have close ties to Putin? I guess those are pretty much severed now?
Apparently he prefers to work by having his subordinates and departments fighting with each other (Hitler used the same "management" tactic). What worked in the past for him may not work in the future.