[TekMol]

What is the state of decentralized betting platforms where people can place crypto on their predictions?

Shouldn't that give us the best possible predictions? Everybody with expertise or inside knowledge who sees the probabilities are off would rush in, place bets and "correct" the probabilities while making a profit.

[shusaku]

Metaculus has regime change at 16% right now: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10246/russian-coup-or-re...

[jacquesm]

up 3% in one hour

[55555]

The people who have legitimate inside information are billionaires and I doubt the market would be that deep. And it's a genuine coup, so the outcome is fundamentally unknowable. But yeah, historically prediction markets are great for stuff like this.

[PartiallyTyped]

As of 11:05 cest, 2023-06-24, manifold thinks Russia will curb wagner group, and reaching moscow is at 10%. It id considered a serious attempt (95%). Expect a civil war by July 14 (70%).

[stavros]

This sounds like a "length of the emperor's nose" situation.

[foverzar]

Came here to ask the same question.