[logicchains]

I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".

[danpalmer]

It’s not a coup it’s a “special paramilitary operation”.

[koonsolo]

All jokes aside, Prigozhin says it's "not a military coup but a march for justice".

Incredible.

[sharikous]

They are still hundreds of miles away from Moscow. In a textbook coup you seize centers of power and media stations as fast as you can but this attempt is on the slow side (certainly the physical size of Russia is helping too).

For now it is "only" an armed rebellion, I guess. And depending on how it unfolds it could be a lot of things.

I think that this sort of thing is not very frequent in contemporary, or even modern, history, but it is very reminiscent of Roman history.

[LeoPanthera]

"So far this is not a coup, as there has been no bid to seize power from the government."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006880

[cwillu]

If I understood correctly, the leader was (originally?) claiming to be attacking an element in the military leadership he felt was responsible for a major friendly fire incident. It appears things have progressed from there, and it's possible or even likely that a coup is and always was the intent, but it's not _certain_.

[jiggywiggy]

Yeah he is being smart, positioning himself as pro Russian. Which he probably is. But doesn't not make it a coup.

Putin calling him a traitor is a death sentence. If he didn't already plan to, now his only option seems to be to move against Putin.

In don't see how they can both stay in power for much longer. One of them has to go.

[davidguetta]

The way i see a coup is usually people are in the capital. Here it's the equivalent distance of austria from Paris so there's just no "coup" at all, it's at best a "publicized attempt to stage a coup"...

[krona]

Because its a staged rebellion to end the war while saving the face of the current leadership, and hopefully avoid civil war.

[autoexec]

You know, if it were, then I'm perfectly fine with that. Whatever makes him feel better so long as the fighting stops.

[hutzlibu]

How are they saving face?

Internal power struggles are a sign of weakness. Putin does not like to appear weak.

Now while it certainly has staged elements, the power struggle between Wagner and the regular army is very real.

But the outcome hopefully will actually lead to ending the war (blaming it on the Wagner traitors). Or worst case, all out nuclear war.

[411111111111111]

I can't speak for a Russians perspective of saving face, as I'm an unrelated outsider.

Nonetheless, if Russia ceases their aggression after this then it wouldn't have been defeated by Ukraine. You'd basically end up with non-patriots having caused the loss, as such you'll have a group of people to blame.

[rixrax]

This. Especially now that after Putins speech/plea on national TV[0] for the army to put a stop on the rebellion, Wagner in telegram appears to have stated: “Putin made the wrong choice. ... Soon we will have a new president".[1]

[0] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fjBVFL0k_-0 [1] https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16725113220832706...

[ZiiS]

Because it depends who wins.

[watwut]

He explicitly claimed he is not against Putin, but against military leadership. So, it is totally not a coup per Prigozhin.

It is kind of elementary school level of logic if you ask me, but it is the logic/argument Prigozhin is using.

[ithkuil]

So by this logic this is just a mutiny? To become a proper coup they would have to replace the government and the president who if I understand correctly is formally the leader of the military. In order to do that they should be marching towards the capital. Since this is what appears to be in progress, is it unreasonable to call it a "possible coup in progress"?

[watwut]

Not sure about mutiny, because he is not a soldier, technically. He is the leader of illegal but tolerated private mercenary company. (Yep Wagner are theoretically illegal per Russian law)

I am definitely not blaming anyone for calling it "possible coup" or "coup" or even "an attempt to start civil war". The original intent was to explain that coup in quotation marks is also alright term to use.

Edit: every single time I write "wagner are technically illegal in Russia" I get downvoted in HN. It is pattern at this point. So, guys, if that was reason for downvote, yep they are illegal per Russian law.

[bemusedthrow75]

It's certainly a novel situation.

I suppose you could call it a mutiny in the sense that Wagner is being told by the state that it is now explicitly under the command of Shoigu, and Prighozin is refusing, which has led to what is now happening: an attempt to put down a rebellion and a mutiny.

[jussij]

That was Prigozhin originally position. He offered support to the president and the government, just not Shoigu. But things might have changed since that first statement, because since then Putin has now come out on Russian TV denouncing the uprising and calling it high treason. So, it would appear things are starting to escalate.

[jiggywiggy]

Yeah interesting to see.

His videos are consistently insisting he is just defending and not hostile to Russia. Which is of course how he should position himself.

But Putin essentially gave him the death sentence so one or the other has to go.

[dave4420]

Personally, if this was a coup, I’d say Wagner would have taken control of important infrastructure by now (e.g. the Kremlin, state tv, military depots, Putin / defence minister). Or been killed/arrested himself.

This feels more like a civil war. It might not last long of course. We’ll see.

[jcrites]

Wagner Group [1] is a mercenary company, by the way, named after German composer Richard Wagner [1]. Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin [2] is reportedly the founder and owner.

(Wagner is not a person. Or am I misreading: who does "himself" refer to?)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Wagner

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin

[r721]

>Wagner is not a person

>He is alleged to have founded the Wagner Group, with his own call-sign reportedly being Wagner

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Utkin

[dave4420]

Yes, I’m being sloppy because I’m on my phone and can’t be bothered editing.

[hutzlibu]

I think it reads fine, as in Kremlin did this and that and Wagner did this and that. Wagner just stands for the group.

[jcrites]

I'm responding to the use of the pronoun "himself":

> Personally, if this was a coup, I’d say Wagner would have taken control of important infrastructure by now ... Or been killed/arrested himself.

To anyone who isn't familiar with Wagner Group, that seems to be describing Wagner as an individual person who can be "killed or arrested himself".

[hutzlibu]

Ah yes, that is wrong, but I think people who are into russian geopolitics (like me) autocorrected it and had the meaning of the person arrested automatically transfered to Prigoshin as head of Wagner.

[TheLoafOfBread]

If January 6th disorganized mob breaching into government building can be considered a coup, then organized military force taking control over 2 major cities in Russia is definitely a coup.

[javimoran]

One of them attacked a governmental body of a country. The other one still has not. That is why it is in quotation marks.

[bemusedthrow75]

It's also not entirely clear that Prighozin can get from here to there. Not least because he's a madman.

My uninformed read is that what he's enraged about (a Russian strike on a Wagner encampment) actually took place, and he knows he's now a dead man walking anyway, so he's going to see what he can do with the time he has left.

[TheLoafOfBread]

No, they already announced that they are going after Putin

"Putin made the wrong choice, all the worse for him. Soon we will have a new president."

https://twitter.com/ChengWeiLai2/status/1672527502223511559#...

[bemusedthrow75]

I think Prighozin is as insane as the idiots who thought they could interfere with the count, and I have no idea if he's seriously considering taking out Putin.

But let's be clear, the crowd breaking into the Capitol wasn't the entirety of the coup attempt, and even to write that part down as just a disorganised mob is incorrect.

What was going on is better understood as an autogolpe -- a self-coup. It had several prongs -- violent, parliamentary (in the congressional sense of the word) and judicial. So, fake electors, lawsuits, attempt to persuade Pence not to count, interfering with results in several states, and the physical insurrection.

The aim was to create a scenario where the handover just didn't happen, through all these interlocking parts.

But the crowd could only ever have created the circumstances that delayed certification (and might have pulled that off, had Pence got in the car).

It was much more co-ordinated than we have yet seen documented in courts, but that time is coming.

[Timon3]

This always being left out by those decrying the classification as a coup attempt is a tacit admission of the whole scheme actually being a coup. Only by leaving it out they can make it seem like it was anything less.

[bemusedthrow75]

Right. And I think it's often misunderstood that these parts don't actually need to have been under strict, detailed co-ordination to work, because the whole thing just needs to be set in motion when you have teams of people who can react on the ground.

But some people had advance plans to create pressure in the knowledge that it might lead to disorder, and then exploit the uncertainty in the moment. It could really all have happened, and it hinges on small moments of bravery that are well documented now but that many of those involved seem hesitant to admit to in public, which shows you that the landscape of threat still exists.

[TeMPOraL]

So in short, you're saying that a stochastic coup is a thing, and the Capitol case was an example of one?

[bemusedthrow75]

No.

(I appreciate that I said "exploit the uncertainty" but I meant more the sort of news media confusion, unclear facts on the ground sort of uncertainty -- fast moving events)

Firstly: the Capitol violence wasn't a coup (or putsch) in and of itself. They had no organised plans to seize direct power. It was an armed mob assault, and everyone there knew what their job was: to stop the count. Some of them even went home when they realised they'd achieved it.

Second: it wasn't really stochastic in an important sense.

Stochastic terrorism is what I understand you to be alluding to by analogy. That is usually considered to be e.g. regular lone-wolf or small attacks that are implicitly encouraged by not being condemned. There is no organising thread or support network (unlike e.g. Al Qaeda and the Taliban).

The people encouraging that stuff don't know what specific outcomes there will be to exploit, but they have reason to suspect an increase in exploitable outcomes and they do nothing to stop it (or better, they are sort of notably half-hearted and equivocal in stopping it).

But in this case, the rally was long-planned and there was plenty of evidence online about who it was attracting. And all the other threads in the autogolpe I mentioned are planned and organised by a small group of people. This is widely understood -- the challenge is proving it in a court.

And it's not "stochastic" if you stand in front of that known crowd of people who have turned up to "stop the steal", and you tell them to "fight like hell". There's no defence that it is metaphorical, especially given everything we know he'd been advised. He (repeatedly) tried to get armed supporters allowed into the main crowd. "They're not here to hurt me!"

Almost nobody stands up in front of a mob and issues direct, unambiguous commands. You do that with a team or an army. Not with a mob. That's not the true power of that situation. You stand up in front of a mob, you use dogwhistles and the mob does what you want. Because that means you can try plausible deniability, which might keep you personally out of jail to do it all over again.

Trump is disordered but he is cunning; he knew he had an armed crowd out there, and he riled them up. And Giuliani literally has form for inciting a riot (of police officers!) so he knew what was going to happen too. They had to have an idea what the specific immediate time-sensitive outcome would be, and it is one they desired. That is not "stochastic". It's directed.

(Edited considerably, haven't had coffee yet)

[bemusedthrow75]

To clarify: the fact that I think Prighozin is insane shouldn't be read as support for Putin.

But he's a madman whose organisation has committed atrocities in several countries; if he is Russia's hope for an end to Putin, that is not a good scenario.