[mbgerring]

The financials may not look good right now, but the vehicles are extremely good. They’re already way out in front of the EV truck segment, and the big automakers have a huge gap to make up to reach the same level of quality. I wouldn’t be surprised if they manage to turn this around and become profitable.

[basch]

You hear this all the time. There is no such thing as a huge lead in automaking. It’s an incredibly clonable product, and each company has huge teams taking apart each others products.

It’s also not really the product that matters. It’s service centers, parts, repairs, manufacturing capacity. The traditional companies have entrenched supply chains to get parts, and cars, across the country and into hands. All the new companies have to build that from scratch. Producing a couple of something great is an achievement, it is not a lead.

It is much much easier to catch up on the product side than it is to innovate. And because the actual product is only a portion of total value, the companies that are “way ahead” with the most futuristic cars are really the ones playing catch up.

[gwbas1c]

Think of it from the perspective of disruption. Large, incumbent businesses get disrupted all the time. A major indicator of a David beating a Goliath is when the rules of the business change.

And, with EVs, the rules of the business have changed, pretty much overnight.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma

IMO: Rivian is ripe for a major investment from an outsider with a lot of cash, (like Amazon,) or for acquisition from a major automaker. An acquisition will only work if they are generally allowed to be independent and run with little interference. Given how direct sales without independent dealers are major part of the rule changes, it's very hard for Rivian to leverage an acquiring company's dealer network.

[taylodl]

Automotive companies have vast R&D budgets and they've been researching (and improving) EV's for decades. Many auto manufacturers have been involved in Formula E racing, keeping up the tradition of developing technology on the race track and then moving it into production for the consumer market.

Now that there's been a spike in consumer interest in EV's these companies would like to recoup that R&D, not to mention they want to be recognized as leaders in the automotive world. I wouldn't want to start a business to take on Mercedes, BMW, Renault, Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche, Lexus - no way. Those guys will crush you.

The SUV and truck market is a different story, however and I think it's smart for Rivian to focus on that segment. They still have stiff competition from the likes of Ford, GM, Toyota and Honda but Toyota and Honda haven't been as active in EV's as the other world-class automotive manufacturers so you stand a better chance competing with them. GM and Ford have a history of failures in responding to rapidly shifting market demands (think of their disasters in the 70's and even into the 80's with producing cars achieving good fuel economy and lower emissions). Now is the time to compete against Ford and GM. Of all the upstart EV makers I think Rivian is best positioned to really stand out and make a name for themselves. As long as they stay away from cars.

[hajile]

If I recall correctly, Rivian is hugely invested into by Cox (specifically Cox Automotive started with a 350M investment), Amazon (750M in 2019 alone), and even Ford (around 500M investment in 2019).

[basch]

Did Slack beat Teams? Xerox or Apple?

[lr1970]

> IMO: Rivian is ripe for a major investment from an outsider with a lot of cash, (like Amazon,)

Amazon already invested billions in Rivian and had to write off the losses. It is not a simple game.

[chickenpotpie]

I strongly disagree. Companies are having a very very hard time getting into the electric vehicle business. Toyota actively spent money trying to slow down the advancements in EVs to give themselves time to catch up (https://electrek.co/2021/09/22/toyota-facing-boycotts-over-f...). If only centers, parts, repairs, and manufacturing capacity matter, then Toyota should have nothing to fear. They have all of that in spades compared to rivian or Tesla.

[guiltygods]

Toyota bet heavily on hydrogen. They are still convinced that is the future.

[TheLoafOfBread]

And after my experience with BEV, I am more likely to believe that hydrogen or synthetic fuels are future, than a battery joke.

[slaw]

Give BEV 10 or 20 years and it will be as good as ICE.

[somewhat_drunk]

Battery tech is advancing rapidly. BEVs will be 95% of automotive sales by the end of the decade.

[mgadams3]

I'm an R1T owner and I can't even put into words why the truck is just so much better and differentiated. It's not just that it's an EV Truck... my friend has a Lightning and it has none of the magic of my Rivian. Magic in a vehicle.

[basch]

How much better it is, is not a measure of time. It may be a hugely improved product, and it may also be replicated in a few years. They also are not making many of them yet. Let's see it scale. (which maybe it will, but they dont deserve credit for something they have not done yet.)

[latchkey]

The fact that you can't put it into words is probably part of the problem.

[cassac]

I thought that until Tesla wrecked everyone.

[rconti]

It feels to me like the F150 Lightning is closer to a Rivian than, say, an electric BMW is to a Tesla, in terms of tech.

If I were shopping for a new pickup, it would be hard to choose between the Ford and the Rivian because Ford has the incumbent automaker advantages while Rivian has the "cool startup" advantages. But in passenger cars, Tesla still has the Supercharger moat, which the Rivian doesn't enjoy.

[majormajor]

Tesla was famously close to failing.

So on one hand, post-Tesla, there's more public readiness for EVs.

On the other hand, there's a huge established EV-native incumbent PLUS far more legacy brand competition in the market.

So it's still a really risky playbook.

[cassac]

I agree it was risky, and close to failing, but that’s what usually happens with great things. I don’t think any other car company that makes electric cars would say they aren’t playing catch up with Tesla. They seem to perpetually be a few years behind.

I was just making my comment based on the parent comment saying it couldn’t be done. It’s done all the time in every segment.

Never underestimate the bean counters from ruining the incumbents.

[panick21_]

Tesla was close to failing in 2008. After that its 'Musk level' close to failing. Even in 2017 when they were losing billions, they still had lots of option to raise money and their margins were already clearly moving in the right direction.

[night862]

I dunno about that, from the top of my head I recall Daewoo to be the last auto make to withdraw from the states at least.

Tesla has so far to go to “wreck” anybody who didn’t already pay for “full self-driving”.

[basch]

Wrecked them how? It’s 22Q4 sales numbers are a quarter of GM. They currently rank in 9th place in production. It’s taken them a decade to get a dealer network built. Their repairs timeline sound just as horrifying as their competitors.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2023-us-auto-sales-figures-by-...

[cassac]

But their owners love them and the kids love them. If you adjust the market to be just for what they do, electric cars and not all cars, they are indeed wrecking them.

It was a segment the ICE car manufacturers mostly ignored and now they have profitable competition where it didn’t exist before. Maybe not wrecked but definitely lold.

[basch]

Lightly dented? Like I said, their lead means almost nothing.

I don’t know what being loved really has to do with production. It won’t take long for a bunch of companies to have equally loved products, and in 30 years, Tesla’s “lead” will be a footnote. Unless they do, future tense, wreck everybody.

It’s a weird response to to my claim that everything but the product matters just as much, if not more. I’m not at all saying Teslas product is or isn’t the best at the moment.

[cassac]

I guess I could agree to disagree? For the market as a whole maybe it is dented. But that quarter panel that got dented is straight wrecked.

Nobody likes car dealerships anyway so nobody misses that. The new trend amongst the kids these days is buying cars without even test driving them.

My point is that Rivian could easily find a crack that would allow them to be profitable and it wouldn’t even need to be as big as Teslas.

[alistairSH]

But their owners love them and the kids love them.

100% anecdotal, but between service woes, initial quality complaints, and Musk's latest antics, several early adopters I know have sworn off the brand. And I know several people ICE-owners looking for an EV, but not considering Tesla at all for the above reasons.

Seems to me Tesla's only real edge at this point is the SuperCharger network. But, that lead will diminish over time, especially if they open the network to all EVs.

[chickenpotpie]

Tesla is a luxury car manufacturer. Of course they have less sales. Luxury brands have lower volume and higher profit margins. You're comparing Gucci and Levi's.

[panick21_]

You should maybe look a little bit deeper. Tesla already makes more money then Ford and GM combined, and that is simple profit. Beyond that Tesla has basically no debt and a great cash position, while the others have huge amounts of debt.

Tesla is still growing fast, has extensive self owned infrastructure in charging and service that will be very profitable and is a huge, huge asset. Tesla is competitive with European car makers in Europe, a market GM has dropped, and Ford mostly so relaying on VW MEB to stay in it at all. Tesla is competitive with car makers in China as well. GM and Ford have very little chance of even establishing their EVs seriously there. In fact the opposite, cars from China will compete with them in the US.

In the meantime the car industry has historically high level of access production capacity. Lots of old ICE and engine plants running below capacity, closing them is hard and costly. At the same time they have to do 10s of billions of new investments in new facilities.

At the same time the ICE sales are going down, lower economics of scale, access manufacturing means seriously negative margin. And that right around the time when anybody with half a brain will realize that buying and ICE car will be a bad investment and resell value will be low. This will collapse resale value of ICE cars and that impacts their financials.

Battery materials are a limiting factor already, and there is no physical way all the announced car makers plans can actually happen. Yes, mining is expanding, but not as fast as battery manufacturing and EV demand. Those companies that did not planned for this for the last 5 years will run into massive issues.

> It’s taken them a decade to get a dealer network built.

Meanwhile Ford and GM and co are literally in a war with dealerships over service. VW is literally suing its dealers and the auto lobby are launching a large scale lobbying effort to prevent the dealers lobbying effort. This could potentially cut 100s of millions away from the already thin profits of the car makers.

Literally every other car maker would kill to be in Tesla position.

> Their repairs timeline sound just as horrifying as their competitors.

Maybe be true or not, but on service, current car makers only maybe 20% of the money, the rest goes to dealers. Tesla will earn 100% of the money.

Its not well understood, but parts are a huge reason why traditional OEMs are profitable at all. Tesla meanwhile has very few old cars on the road, and many new cars under warranty. Despite that, Tesla service business is already profitable, and that is before millions of cars will go off warranty in a few years.

Again, literally every single car maker would love to be in Teslas situation.

One last point, if you insist on comparing how many cars they make. Look at the trendlines, not just a single year.

[amluto]

Tesla is really nothing special. It has one massive advantage: the supercharger network. Other than that, it has an excellent powertrain (eminently clonable), a pretty good nav system, a pretty good adaptive cruise control, no CarPlay or Android Auto, and no interior amenities worth mentioning. And they have absolutely terrible parasitic power consumption, a property that every other manufacturer has nailed for decades, because a car with a single lead-acid battery that parasitically discharges like a Tesla would be utterly useless. Tesla would like you to think they make the world’s best batteries, but they really don’t. They do have mindshare, though, and everyone else has been sitting on their butts and failing to compete effectively.

[rconti]

Do other EV makers have better parasitic drain? I'm honestly not sure. My Tesla's isn't that bad, but it's not 0. Might be a couple miles a day, which isn't a ton of miles, but it's a lot of energy.

It also seems they have a pretty significant efficiency advantage per kWh. Whenever I see EVs compared, the general consensus seems to be Tesla has a lead above everyone else.

[guiltygods]

Not just mindshare, ability to crank out volume, captive battery production and vertical integration

[TheLoafOfBread]

Ford in 1930s used to have this too and more (except the battery production). See Fordlandia.

[alexb_]

"wrecked"... Tesla didn't even come close to wrecking anybody. They came in as a new competitor, and are still massively overvalued because of investor delusion.

[cassac]

They may be over valued but everybody is absolutely playing catch-up and are quite a bit away from their profit margins.

What’s even worse for the legacy companies is Tesla is the Kleenex/Coke of electric cars to a lot of young minds.

[V__]

Tesla makes better software right now. But the profit-margins argument seems to be a misconception [1]. Until Tesla distances itself from Musk, I also don't think the brand will stay 'cool' for that long.

[1] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4573601-tesla-gross-margins...

[cassac]

I don’t think those are fully like to like comparisons though. You have to run those numbers just for electric. Nobody I know would cross shop a Tesla and a Rav 4. They can have their margins on their ICE catalog but they don’t have it on their electric yet even with the dealer network numbers added in.

[panick21_]

Claiming everybody else is delusional when you are probably no rich from speculating is always a fun claim.

The car industry is consolidating. Chrysler is one example, they simply had no chance in hell to have any EV strategy. Now they have at least something thanks to their merger resulting in PSA. More such things will happen in the next 5 years.

Go look at how many cars companies like GM used to sell, and how many they are selling now.

Tesla is more profitable then GM and Ford combined, something that people would have not believed just a few years ago (not even mention debt, growth and other things).

They are not "wrecked" but everybody in the car industry knows that Tesla together with the rise of China auto is gone be a huge hammer to the rest of the industry. But with business like this, it takes years for these things to unfold.

[LanceJones]

Toyota engineers just acknowledged that their teardown of a Model Y "revealed a work of art". Toyota. If my 17,000 shares make me delusional, so be it, friend.

[night862]

Heh, the art world is full of weird bs. My favorite piece by Pablo “Tesla” Picasso is this one: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/ran-over-something-n...

Truly a work of art.

[jryle70]

You could try to be clever, or you could read what they were talking about:

https://archive.is/PE0AZ

[Corrado]

Toyota article here - https://electrek.co/2023/02/28/tesla-model-y-work-of-art-toy...

[dogma1138]

I disagree there are two primary leads in the automotive industry manufacturing and supply chain.

These are both hard to build, and require not only a monumental capital investment but also a lot of organizational experience to get right especially around QA and also can easily be a handicap for example established automakers often base their design choices on their existing supply chain and part availability as they often want to maximize part commonality between various models.

That said I do agree that as far as design goes it’s far easier for an established automaker to catch up to a contender than the other way around.

At least if they are willing to give up on some of the optimizations they squeezed out of the process over decades.

[basch]

We agree. I should have been more precise in my words. I meant there is no huge lead in the product itself.

[joshspankit]

What they do have a huge lead on, and which is not clonable, and which is under+appreciated since the lack of it takes a while to affect profits is attention to detail.

They not only put a lot of thought in to their trucks to make them some of the best EV trucks in the world, but if they stay focused they can continue to bring that level of care and attention to all their future vehicles. At that point the cloned features look cheap and are already behind by the time they hit the market. You see this kind of pattern play out all over the place.

[hedora]

I really like their cars, but they’re not practical replacements for a full size pickup truck (as the F-150 Lightning is).

Anyway, they’re competing more with range rover and jeep than trucks, which is fine (and also a mostly-unaddressed segment).

[mbgerring]

> they’re not practical replacements for a full size pickup truck (as the F-150 Lightning is).

Why not? I’ve done “truck stuff” in a Rivian, like towing a 5 ton car trailer over the Sierra Nevadas. They have the same towing capacity and the Rivian has better battery range. They also cost the same similarly equipped. What’s the issue?

[gwbas1c]

Probably bed size.

[jonstewart]

Bed size on contemporary F150s is also a joke. They're mostly just suburban mini-vans for the macho set.

[gwbas1c]

The Rivan's bed size is similar to the Maverick.

[alistairSH]

Bed lengths for reference... 54" Rivian R1T 54" Ford Maverick 64" Honda Ridgeline 66" F150 Lightning

I own a Ridgeline. The bed is fine for chucking some camping gear, but it's nowhere near long enough for lumber, sheetrock, etc. Mountain bikes don't fit upright, even with the front wheel off.

The Rivian is 17" longer overall than a Maverick and 7" longer than the Honda. It's bed is really small - fine for casual use, but hardly suitable for "working truck stuff". And that's not the market Rivian is targeting, so that's fine.

[lockhouse]

Even the F-150 Lightning isn’t a good replacement for any pickup truck use cases that require towing or going far off the beaten path outside the reach of charging stations. There’s still no EV equivalent of just throwing a couple gas cans in the bed to extend the range.

It’s good for typical suburban pickup truck uses though and could be a good farm truck since you could just charge it at home.

[aaomidi]

Electricity is everywhere. Like. Everywhere. It’s only a matter of time before the charging network expands.

[lockhouse]

Electricity assuredly is NOT everywhere. There are large swaths of the US where you will be very far from a plug. Also, it takes an impractical amount of time to charge an EV pickup truck on anything other than a fast charger.

We are not anywhere near where the infrastructure is ready for EV pickup trucks to be practical for a large number of people that currently need them. We may get there some day, but not for decades without a huge breakthrough in battery charging technology or manhattan project level investment in charging infrastructure.

[aaomidi]

220V 50 amps electricity is effectively everywhere. Those large swaths of the country with nothing in them are also places where there’s generally far less traffic.

[lockhouse]

> Those large swaths of the country with nothing in them are also places where there’s generally far less traffic.

Don't those sound like places you'd want to drive something like a pickup truck?

Also, the grid isn't ready for everyone to have electric vehicles using fast chargers. A heat wave takes down the grids of entire states.

[alistairSH]

LOL. No it isn't.

I camp in the Appalachians regularly, from DC. There a quite a few spots I can't get to without a 3 hour charging detour (2 hours charge time, 1 hour road detour to get to EV station) on the return leg. And that's for areas that are only 3-4 hours away (one direction). [this was using ABRP and a mid-range Riviant R1T]

[aaomidi]

I think y’all are mixing up “electricity is everywhere” which is what I stated with “charging stations are everywhere”

These are different problems.

[PragmaticPulp]

Likely a smart move.

The F-150 Lightning is also a very good truck, and it gets to capitalize on the F-150 brand and customer base.

They addressed a gap in the market (smaller electric truck) rather than trying to go head-to-head with the biggest full-size truck brand in the industry.

Smart move.

[mbgerring]

The Rivian is a full-size truck and performs as good or better than the Lightning for similar tasks.

[majormajor]

That bed length disadvantage is pretty significant if you're coming to it from the "truck user" market vs the "weekend camper" or "soccer mom" market.

I was interested in a Rivian until I saw one in person and saw how short that bed was. It wasn't the first spec I'd looked at on paper, but jumped out in-person. In that size I'd probably go cheap with a Maverick hybrid for now until there are more full-EV competitors.

[tstrimple]

Just looked it up and realized it isn't even close to passing the sheet good test. I suppose the expectation is to drive with the tailgate down? My minivan seems to be a more competent hauler of material (for my admittedly limited needs) than the Rivian.

[jonstewart]

The Rivian's marketed towards the "adventure" segment. It's definitely not intended as a work truck.

[slaw]

I wouldn't count on Maverick to be available. All 2023 Mavericks were ordered in September 2022. I'll probably wait until 2025 to get one.

[majormajor]

I've seen some on dealer lots in the past month. YMMV on options/colors of course.

[frumper]

Rivian's aren't exactly available either.

[alexb_]

What's the price comparison?

[lh7777]

Ford has been rapidly raising their prices (so it’s hard to keep track) but last I saw starting prices were $73k for the Rivian and $56k for the Lightning.

[mbgerring]

If you equip the $56k F150 to the level of the base model Rivian they’re about the same price.

[giobox]

In isolation, sure, but this space is going to get so fiercely competitive so quickly (on the order of years, but that is fast for the car industry!) and ASPs for electric trucks will come down. Rivian are still generally only selling ~six-figure trucks today (the priciest configs ship sooner of course) and not making money at it.

How good the vehicle is becomes irrelevant if you can't make it at a price people want to pay. I still think Rivian can get there, but there is so far to go. They only delivered ~20k cars in 2022.

[bink]

I'm not sure it's fair to say the priciest configs ship sooner. They're really only delivering two trucks right now, the quad motor, large pack versions of the R1T and R1S. The dual motor configs are cheaper but were only introduced recently. The max pack versions have been for sale for awhile and none of have been delivered, but they're also the most expensive.

They did raise prices around 1 year ago but I've seen no evidence that they've prioritized orders for those who purchased after the price increase or who equipped more expensive options (options like tents and racks are shipping separately).

[giobox]

If you can't make money on the highest margin configs (and they can't yet), you certainly don't prioritise selling the lower margin models. This is a fairly common practice for a new model line from an auto-maker and Rivian are no different.

The reason I point price out at all, competition is already available for less in places (F150 Lightning), and more electric trucks are due to launch shortly - not great if you can't turn a profit on six figure models let alone considering lower priced offerings to compete.

[hajile]

If you want a truck for looks, EV is nice enough. If you want a truck to haul stuff, EV is terrible. Put a trailer on your EV and they have basically no range at all.

If you need a truck to haul stuff reasonable distances, EV isn't for you (at least not right now). If you want to save the world, then an electric car gets much better ranges with much smaller batteries and a fraction of the power usage.

This leaves EV trucks in a "why bother?" category.

[panick21_]

Most hauling around is local, within a city or region. EV range is reasonable and actually has many advantages over ICE cars. Operating cost being a huge one. Torque being the other.

And the reality is the waste majority of people simple don't drive long distances with trailers. Study after study shows how that simply not why most people buy trucks.

[zamnos]

BMW's entire marketing department gets that you don't sell cars based on what the driver's actually going to use it for, but based on an emotional pull on who the driver wants to be. Trucks are no different. Studies after study can show how much people don't pull trailers, but that's not why the F150 is the US' best selling truck.

[mbgerring]

This isn’t true. I hauled a 5 ton car trailer from San Francisco to the Black Rock Desert in Nevada last year and it was a breeze. 160 miles (the range with the trailer) is not “no range at all”, and the charging network, at least here, is dense enough to deal with it.

[mbgerring]

Also, trailers with batteries are coming. This is going to be a solved problem in almost no time.

[echelon]

100% anecdotal: I'm in Georgia. If I had to guesstimate, I see about ~20 Rivians a month now in both urban and suburban settings. They seem to be catching on.

[guiltygods]

Unless they can crank out the volume like Tesla they will be relegated to a niche market. Only big guys like Ford, Volkswagon, GM can make it now.

[7e]

The all electric Lightning outsold the R1T in December. Rivian is only guiding to 50K vehicles this year, many of which are Amazon vans. At the December run rate Ford will sell more than Rician in 2023. You can’t even order a Lightning online anymore-sold out for the year. Rivian doesn’t have the battery supply to grow fast.

[rasz]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/14/ford-halts-f-150-lightning-p...

[7e]

Quality isn’t that great. Some service centers are booked out four or five months. Owner satisfaction remains high despite that, however.