[kjksf]

$1.3B seems like a lot of money but it isn't for a car factory, especially spread over many years.

For context: Tesla is guiding for $10+B a year capex spending for the next 3 years.

Nevada factory took $6.2B and Tesla plans to spend additional $3.6B

Toyota is still under-investing in EV. $1.3B is nothing.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/continuing-our-investment-nevada

[pawptart]

As someone who lives a few miles from Georgetown, KY, it's important to note that this factory already exists and sounds like they are (partially) re-tooling it to begin EV production. So that might explain the dollar figure.

[jmoak3]

Louisville checking in, spent a lot of time in Georgetown and can confirm this is likely just more work on the Camry plant.

Toyota has been good to the area.

Off topic, but is there a popular tech meetup in the state? Moved back a year and some change ago and would love to get more involved.

[J0EKR]

We have been working hard to grow the bluegrass tech community (mainly focused on Lexington area right now). The following are a good place to start:

- https://lextalk.tech/ - should be another one in April or may

- https://www.meetup.com/The-Bluegrass-Developers-Guild on Meetup - lots of good events here

- https://www.bluegrassdevs.org/ - join our slack

I really suggest coffee and code. It is super chill and a great way to meet folks around the area: https://meetu.ps/e/MN0XK/1RyZP/i

We are always looking for folks to help out.

[malfist]

Wow there's more of us here than I thought. Glad to see another lexitonian!

[richiebful1]

I'd be curious too. I'm in Powell County, so the "greater Lexington area". I'm seeing these in Lex:

- PHP user group (https://www.meetup.com/kentucky-php-user-group/events/298973...)

- Bluegrass Developers Guild (https://www.meetup.com/the-bluegrass-developers-guild/events...)

Also, being an early employee at a startup, I've been attending the rare Startup Lexington event I can make it to.

Feel free to contact my email (in profile) if you want to connect

[warnhardcode]

Another Kentuckian in tech here. Thanks for the list. A friend recently attended https://13layers.com/event/lextalktechjan24/ and said it was a good mix of talks. I think they're quarterly and it's on my list to follow up.

I also lurk on these slacks: bluegrass-dev.slack (same folks as the meetup I assume), Louisville Tech louisville.slack, and startuplexington.slack

Hope we keep this ball rolling a bit longer on meetups and gatherings both in person and online.

[itsoktocry]

>For context: Tesla is guiding for $10+B a year capex spending for the next 3 years.

I know people around these parts think that Tesla has uncovered some magical factory building ability, but can you even consider the fact that maybe Toyota knows what they are doing?

>Toyota is still under-investing in EV. $1.3B is nothing.

This is one factory.

[brandonagr2]

What about Toyota's plans makes you think they will ever catch up to everyone else with EVs?

[itsoktocry]

>What about Toyota's plans makes you think they will ever catch up to everyone else with EVs?

Their history of engineering and execution.

What makes you think think they can't? EV proponents like to argue that the simplicity is what makes EVs so great, but at the same time making arguments like "no one can catch up".

Believe it or not, it's not a certainty that EVs are going to be the solution, rather than just an improvement on our way to something else.

[mjamesaustin]

What makes me think they can't catch up is watching them spend dramatically less than their competition on the needed infrastructure when they are already very far behind.

To catch up from behind, you need to do more than your competition.

[mikeyouse]

This is an article about a single factory - Toyota spends upwards of $30 billion a year in CapEx -- Tesla spends under $10 billion per year.

Toyota's battery complex in North Carolina is a greater spend than the entire annual budget from Tesla and will have about the same output as Tesla's "gigafactory". The $1.3 billion in Kentucky is in addition to that.. it's a mistake to think they're not investing heavily.

https://www.just-auto.com/news/toyota-to-double-investment-i...

[chii]

I would imagine the catch up is not in the form of a factory, but with raw material supply chain.

Tesla would've locked in cheaper lithium supply than toyota.

[dylan604]

When someone else has already spent money on the hard part of being first, those that follow do not need to spend the same amount of money repeating the same mistakes.

[tenpies]

Correct. Toyota's bet is simple: what makes rational economic, environmental, and good-policy sense for most locales is not an EV. It's a hybrid.

And it's a bet that's working well so far: https://fortune.com/asia/2023/12/28/toyota-hybrid-cars-sales...

[pie420]

yet they refuse to build hybrids in large numbers. RAV4 primes and Prius primes are insanely difficult to get at or near MSRP. Toyota is saying that Hybrids make the most sense, but still use hybrid as an upsell for a higher trim, and thus only makes a fraction of their cars as hybrids. If >50% of their vehicles were hybrids, i'd be ecstatic and would agree with them, but currently it's just whataboutism and misdirection

[tguvot]

they don't refuse to build. they fail to match production to demand due to logistical reasons. factory discussed here it's literally solution for production problems that they have.

when i was buying hybrid volvo a few years ago and talked to dealership boss, i was told that volvo got surprised by demand and they simply don't have enough battery packs in order build more.

and things like battery pack for car, it's not something that you can just ramp up capacity from today to tomorrow.

[matthewdgreen]

Hybrids combine the costs and maintenance issues of an ICE with the costs and maintenance issues of a BEV. This is a lot of unnecessary complexity and cost for what will ultimately be a short transition, during which China will substantially eat into Japanese automakers’ markets and gain the upper hand in battery supply.

[quonn]

What else?

[Retric]

They don’t need to innovate just execute and Toyota is all about execution. Build a car people want and let sales drive future investments.

[TheCleric]

Yeah I wouldn’t bet against Toyota in a game of catch up. They’ve proven over and over that their real strength is in doing what other companies have proven out and doing it better and more efficiently.

[belltaco]

Execution like the wheels falling off their flagship all-ev car? After they've been making cars for 85+ years.

https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/wheels-falling...

https://www.motortrend.com/news/toyotas-fix-bz4x-disconnecti...

That doesn't get the headlines and attenion that a icon enlargement software update on Tesla does on HN.

[throwup238]

Teslas Have a Minor Issue Where the Wheels Fly Off While Driving, Documents Show - https://futurism.com/tesla-flaws-failures-blame-drivers

It's really easy to cherry pick problems when someone makes millions of cars every year.

[vardump]

Wasn't that about one incident, where the driver was in a traffic accident before the wheel fell off?

Wheels are actually designed to fall off in an accident.

[belltaco]

Toyota was forced to recall all their BZX cars for that issue, whereas the scale of the problem you linked appears to be much lower across Tesla's models.

[KptMarchewa]

I think Toyota feels comfortable being a follower in that case and eventually use a large number of suppliers for the basic things that Tesla as a first mover has or wants to develop themselves.

[rootusrootus]

That'll be an interest test -- the reason Tesla is so vertically integrated is because it allows them a greater profit margin. They've already been using that margin to slap around other manufacturers and force them to sell in the red.

[radiator]

If you mean stop manufacturing Internal Combustion Engines, Toyota have said many times, they do not intend to "catch up to everyone else" with EVs. They have the luxury of sitting and watching their competition leave the market, thus leaving Toyota's road to great profits wide open.

[rootusrootus]

Only works if the competition does indeed leave the market. The risk of staying out while everyone else embraces the next generation technology is a reduction in customer loyalty. Every current Toyota owner who buys a competitor's product is potentially someone who will switch loyalties going forward.

[ThinkBeat]

The electric car Toyota is selling now is doing quite well sales wise. (at least in Norway)

They have a whole line of them "coming any day now".

They have a lot of people who love the Toyota/Lexus brand.

[antisthenes]

Toyota has probably shipped more battery capacity in hybrid cars than most EV manufacturers to date.

They don't need to catch up to anything.

[josefresco]

They're still killing it with hybrids and the rest of the industry, having realized that "all electric" is a little too early, is scrambling.

The RAV4 is the top selling "SUV" in America(1) and it looks like close to 50% of those are the hybrid model.

1. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars...

In 2022 it was 48%: https://evstatistics.com/2022/07/48-of-1h-2022-toyota-rav4-s...

[stetrain]

If Toyota shipped the same annual battery capacity as Tesla then they could sell 100% of their vehicles as hybrid or plug-in hybrid instead of 30%.

[stetrain]

This might be true cumulatively but certainly isn't true on an annual basis anymore.

If Toyota were shipping the same battery capacity as Tesla they could make every car they sell globally a hybrid or plug-in hybrid and they are at about 30% of that.

[woobar]

You are assuming that 100% of Toyota customers want to buy EV vehicles.

[rootusrootus]

How many EVs does Toyota sell each year? A few thousand or perhaps tens of thousands? It's at best a rounding error. Not something Toyota customers really have to worry about.

[stetrain]

I wasn’t, but who wouldn’t want a hybrid?

[mensetmanusman]

5 million prius * 14 kWhr 5 million tesla * 50 kWhr

This is probably true, hybrids may win in the US market in the short term until they are outlawed?

[kevin_thibedeau]

They'll never be outlawed. There are too many use cases for 300+ mile trips in remote areas where recharging isn't possible or less remote areas where it isn't practical.

[riku_iki]

There are laws in effect already: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-...

[petre]

> until they are outlawed?

In the US? When hell freezes over. In the Nederlands? Probably in 5-6 years.

[repler]

Test drive a RAV4 Prime.

All it needs is more battery capacity, which apparently they are indeed investing in.

[wafflerewire]

RAV4 Prime owner here. I completely agree with wanting more battery capacity. For my use case, it has been a minor complaint. Been very happy overall with it.

[ActorNightly]

I could walk in and buy Model Y any time I want. Not so with Rav 4 Prime.

Plugin hybrids are the future.

[LightBug1]

Hah, try doing it via lease ... the supposed 'seamless' experience completely falls down ... I've just spent 5 months handholding a model 3 order, only for it to fall down at the end when Tesla tried to stiff our company for £3k.

Ended up leasing a BMW i5 because of the complete waste of time and hassle.

I'm glad it wasn't my car but, based on the experience, I wouldn't go near that joke of a company ever again. Lost a repeat customer too.

Takeaway: their staff listen more to their robot portal software than they do to rational customer experience.

And I know I'm p'ing in the wind ... but Tesla (in my experience) get way too much credit. I've had better experiences with conventional dealerships (and that's saying something considering how bad they are).

N=1

[rootusrootus]

> I've had better experiences with conventional dealerships

I don't know how.

I've got dealing with conventional car dealers down to an art form, and it still isn't even remotely comparable.

To get a Tesla you order it online and then go in for an appointment to pick it up. Hand them the payment, they already have all the paperwork ready for signatures, they give you the key cards and offer to help you install the app. You accept delivery and drive home. If you want, you can easily be in and out in 15 minutes or less. And the delivery guy doesn't try to sell me anything. No extended warranty, nothing.

[LightBug1]

Maybe I had a particularly bad experience, but what you describe is what I was expecting.

What I got was 5 months of hot potato juggling, inept delivery advisors (which I later discovered to be because they had no power and rigidly stuck to their what their portal says), confusion and countless hours spent handholding a very simple order. Only for it to collapse at the end because pricing changed (BECAUSE of delays when Tesla messed up the order).

Anyway ... joke company, and I'll not go near them again.

[oohffyvfg]

tesla fans defending how easy it is to find a Tesla in stock is a new one. grand.

[tempestn]

I don't think that's the point they're trying to make.

[rootusrootus]

I tried for a while to score a RAV4 Prime. Dealers were assholes about it, they don't have waiting lists or anything like that. "Come by every morning to see if any show up. We sell them all within 15 minutes of arriving so we don't need you."

So I bought another Tesla. At this time the Toyota experience has left such a sour taste that I will probably not ever consider one of their products in the future. Other manufacturers have really stepped up their game anyway, so it's not like Toyota makes the only reliable car you can buy.

[ActorNightly]

As much as I dislike Toyotas ego, they do make fairly good vehicles, which is why they are in high demand.

[carabiner]

Easy to catch up when EV market is shrinking. Toyota is right, gas hybrids are the future. Awesome range, you don't have to own a home to charge one, no problems in cold weather.

[tempestn]

The thing about hybrids is that while you get the benefits of a gas engine (not needing to charge), you also get most of the combined drawbacks of ICE cars and EVs. You still need to go to the gas station, change the oil, maintain the belts and filters, etc. If you're mostly driving in EV mode, stale gas could even be an issue (though that's probably not a huge concern for most). But you've also still got electric motors and battery that could fail, although admittedly the battery is a lot cheaper.

IMO hybrids could have a lot of life as a stopgap, but full EVs are pretty clearly where things are going. We've got chargers being installed (Tesla 4th Gen) that can charge at 600kW. Cars can't handle that yet, but the current 800V platforms are getting closer. Once you can get the better part of a full charge in less than 10 minutes, it's not really less convenient than stopping for gas on a trip. And as more people get EVs (and even PHEVs), more buildings will be equipped with charging. Even a regular 120V outlet is fine for most people for day to day overnight charging - especially if they can get a quick top-up to near full at a supercharger when needed.

Summary: hybrids are great for a lot of people right now and in the near future. In the medium to far future, EVs are going to be superior in, I think, all relevant metrics^. (Even cost, as batteries will get cheaper, while the cost of added hybrid components will stay roughly flat.)

^Well, except weight and sound, specifically thinking of sports cars. I'd be a lot more excited about the new electrified Porsche 718 (Cayman/Boxster) platform if it were hybrid instead of full electric, for those reasons. Not super relevant for commuter cars though.

[carabiner]

In present day reality though, most people live in cities in cheap apartments that won't have chargers for at least a decade. I watch woodpeckers destroy the wood trim at my building, you think mgmt is going to add EV chargers any time soon? Hybrids have superior reliability and lower cost of ownership than pure gas which is why uber drivers and nyc tax have adopted then en masse. All of the disadvantages of hybrids are theoretical or from some lofty "elegance" perspective when in the real world, hybrids work brilliantly. Toyota has been ruthlessly pragmatic with their cars and that's why they've worked. It's admirable how much they've avoided the EV fad and stuck to practical vehicles. It'll be at least a decade until they're on par with hybrids.

[tempestn]

Definitely lower cost per mile due to the fuel economy. Clearly they make a ton of sense for taxis. Do you have evidence for the higher reliability than pure ICE cars? I hadn't heard that, and it seems counter-intuitive to me. I certainly know anecdotally I've heard many claims of Prius hybrid batteries failing. (Which isn't necessarily a huge problem, but just saying it adds a point of failure without, as far as I can tell, removing any.)

[tguvot]

>If you're mostly driving in EV mode, stale gas could even be an issue (though that's probably not a huge concern for most).

volvo hybrids force engine operation in case gas wasn't refilled/used for too long.

[tempestn]

Makes sense. So yeah, not something the end user would really have to worry about then.

[bryanlarsen]

The EV market was 30% larger in 2023 than 2022.

[carabiner]

Lagging indicator. Hertz is dumping their Teslas and canceled their purchase of 65k Polestars.

[bryanlarsen]

If you want to cherry-pick random anecdotes I'll counter with multi-year waitlists for Hyundai EV9 despite being expensive and ineligible for the $7500 rebate.

[recursive]

Maybe EVs aren't good rental vehicles. This seems like it would be true, at least until public charging infrastructure catches up. And at the same time, maybe EV adoption is growing really fast. That also seems to be true, because the numbers say its true.

[explaininjs]

The fact that they already sell the most popular electric vehicle in the US and Japan, and have done so since they launched the very beginning of electric vehicles, over 25 years ago? (Pruis)

[kjksf]

Ignoring that Prius is a hybrid and not an EV:

Toyota sold 30k in 2023, the lowest number ever.

Tesla sold 400k of Model Y and 210k of Model 3 and 31k of Model X in 2024.

So Model Y outsold Prius by 13x in US in 2023.

---

https://carfigures.com/us-market-brand/toyota/prius-family

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/01/29/tesla-model-ys-huge-gro...

[josefresco]

Look at the insanely huge sales of the RAV4 hybrid. Americans don't buy small cars, we buy SUV/CUVs and Toyota is the king.

[rootusrootus]

Didn't the Model Y outsell the RAV4 in 2023? I guess there are estimates that go both ways on that, but nobody really disputes that the RAV4 and Model Y are neck-and-neck. Would be nice if Tesla released actual numbers.

[luuurker]

Hybrid. I'm nitpicking, but current full electric Toyota cars are not that good or popular.

[itsoktocry]

Electric cars are not that popular, period.

Hybrids may turn out to be a more popular option.

[rootusrootus]

> Electric cars are not that popular, period.

That is a matter of opinion. As a brand new technology, I think a market share approaching 10% is incredible. Only fans thought this was possible even 5 years ago.

[quonn]

Hybrids have basically all the possible parts that can break.

[luuurker]

What I meant is that Toyota electric cars are not popular inside the electric category. From range to charging speeds, they're behind other brands.

[mbesto]

> I know people around these parts think that Tesla has uncovered some magical factory building ability, but can you even consider the fact that maybe Toyota knows what they are doing?

Not a Tesla fanboy (I'm turning mine in for a Rivian), but the OP wasn't saying this, not sure how you got that conclusion. They are saying for a car company they are (1) way behind and (2) any investments they are making won't reach fruition for years, nor likely make a dent in the industry.

Outside of MB and the Chinese EVs, the design of Tesla motors is far superior. Their build quality and finishing is awful however - something the traditional players do really well.

[itsoktocry]

>not sure how you got that conclusion.

The OP drew a direct comparison from what Tesla spent on a plant, to what Toyota is spending on a factory. How can you draw a different conclusion? What makes Tesla "right" and Toyota "wrong"?

>They are saying for a car company they are (1) way behind and (2) any investments they are making won't reach fruition for years, nor likely make a dent in the industry.

Way behind what? The RAV4 sold more units than the Model Y last year, and that's just one model. Again, people have this weird way of extrapolating what Tesla is doing in the EV market (dominating) to the overall car market (rounding error).

[gergi137]

Nope, the Model Y was the best selling vehicle in 2023, regardless of powertrain.

https://insideevs.com/news/706169/tesla-model-y-best-selling...

[fragmede]

car, not vehicle. The best selling vehicle in the US in 2023 by a long shot is the Ford F-series truck.

Car and Driver also says the Rav4 outside the Model Y, fwiw.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars...

[_aavaa_]

Your article doesn't contradict their argument. Their link is for worldwide sales, yours is US only.

Further, that top spot is not for a specific Ford truck, but for all F-series trucks put together. That's an apples to oranges comparison.

[suoduandao3]

I do believe that Tesla's success in the last decade was in large part due to the fact it was the only technology company that could use all the money people were throwing at technology companies.

[anonylizard]

Softbank's belief was that throwing capital would just make things work. But from wework to many other of their startups shows its not the case.

Telsa had to deploy their capital very efficiently in a capital intensive industry. Say their bet on the Shanghai factory, despite obvious IP leak risks and spawning deadly competitors like BYD, was their only choice to reach scale at a low cost.

[thfuran]

>Telsa had to deploy their capital very efficiently in a capital intensive industry

Surely that's an easier task than deploying a similar amount of capital in an industry that isn't capital heavy.

[bluGill]

We have known for decades that normally doesn't work. However we also have a few exceptions that tease people into thinking it works enough - or that they can identify the few winners (I'm not sure what). Amazon.com at one time was the place people were throwing more good capital after bad - I was convinced this was the case in the late 1990s.

[lvturner]

Spawning?

BYD was founded in 1995 and its automotive subsidiary 2003 (via aquisition)

[fnordpiglet]

BYD didn’t really differentiate itself until starting 2019, which is about a year after Tesla would have had to complete its forced technology transfer program to establish Tesla Shanghai. BYDs first new generation EV concept car in 2019, and production of the Seal and other major EV products (which looks like clones of Model 3s, etc) didn’t start in earnest until 2022. They changed their logo to be a stylistic copy of the Tesla logo in 2022.

Yes, their bus and ICE lines long predated, and they had hybrids built out of forced technology transfers from Toyota. But their EV lines that are so popular didn’t start until after Tesla acquired their corporate license and rights to build their gigafactory. If you’ve done business in China you know forced technology transfers and training of competitive local workforces is contingent on those stages. The factory itself and its parts supply chain would also have required transfer of technical knowledge, skill, and local supplier ability without exclusivity.

It’s not a knock on Chinese people to say the Chinese government is intertwined in Chinese industry (it is communist after all and ultimately the means of production is a public trust), or that there is no “fairness” by western standards in Chinese industry and governmental influence. But it’s also disingenuous to believe BYD pivoted to a full on global Tesla competitor in 4 years from being a low end hybrid and bus manufacturer based purely on their tenacity and innovation, neither of which is BYD known for in its history (having been propped up as a money loser for decades by the government and facing a lot of intellectual property lawsuits from Toyota, Mercedes, Renault, and others throughout its history). It’s too implausible to take seriously and there’s no reason to be credulous.

[lvturner]

Fully agreed - “enabled” or “spurred” would have been more appropriate word choices.

It’s not like BYD appeared out of thin air a few months after Tesla opened shop.

[dzhiurgis]

Ummmm you might want to compare debt of VW, Toyota and Tesla

[suoduandao3]

Genuine question, what do you think comparing debt loads of established vs startup companies should tell me?

[oblio]

What's the trend?

[apapapa]

In addition to that, I wouldn't be surprised if they got 100 percent of that amount from the government in one way or another

[_ea1k]

Yeah, it must be less than 1% of revenue. Probably a lot less, given that it is likely spread over several years.

[jgalt212]

It feels "right-sized" given Toyota's approach towards EV's and the slowing adoption rate of EVs in the US.

[dumbo-octopus]

Toyota initiated the hybrid as a modern platform, and they continue make the best selling hybrid in the world (Prius). But since they don't want to be in the business of making undesirable vehicles with short lifespans that require expensive maintenance, they have stuck to hybrids rather than full electric and all the extremely costly low lifespan batteries that go into them.

Speaking as a 2004 Prius daily driver, the Toyota approach works. And I guarantee I'm a hell of a lot more "environmentally friendly" than anyone who commissioned literal tons of metal to be dug out of the earth to make their "green" new Tesla.

[brandonagr2]

You aren't more environmentally friendly, in less than 2 years an EV is net positive

https://www.tesla.com/impact (see page 22)

And that's not even mentioning that in 20 years we won't be mining materials out of the ground anymore, will just be recycling existing battery materials

[seadan83]

The break-even depends on the source of electricity, which in turn depends on Geography.

If the electricity is from coal, the break-even is after 5 years; even then, the lifetime emission of the EV is not even 10% less than that of the conventional gas car.

If the electricity is from hydro and other 100% non-fossil fuel renewables, than the break-even is even shorter, under a year, and over the lifetime the emissions are about 70%~80% less overall (and the longer the car is driven compared to a conventional gas car, more than 13 years, the greater the reduction in lifetime emissions)

All data from this source:

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/ELECTRIC-VEHICLES/EMISSIONS...

(Full webpage, for context: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/when-d...)

[sndean]

OP continuing to drive a 20-year-old car (of any kind, not just a hybrid) is likely more environmentally friendly than buying a new car every few years. They're doing the reduce part of "reduce, reuse, recycle." A long-lasting, low-maintenance hybrid has a good argument for being very environmentally friendly.

[calfuris]

Combustion-powered vehicles are something of an exception, because only a small fraction of their pollution is associated with their creation. Buying a new car every few years probably isn't optimal, but operating an ICE vehicle for decades probably isn't optimal either.

[_aavaa_]

> OP continuing to drive a 20-year-old car (of any kind, not just a hybrid) is likely more environmentally friendly than buying a new car every few years.

Sure, but that isn't the comparison here. Buying a new EV and then holding on to it for 20 years will be even more environmentally friendly.

[blackoil]

   1. Conflict of interest. Is there any alternative report?
   2. 2 years is vague, do we have it in kms?
   3. Which car is it against? How does it compare with Prius 2024?

Also, how much investment in renewables is because of EVs? If we had 0 EVs and same renewables, coal/oil/gas generated electricity would have gone down by what is now consumed by EVs.

[explaininjs]

Parent stated they drive a Prius, which is not the "standard EV" that article mentions. They slate 24mpg, which is laughable: that's around what my old gas guzzling V8 got, and they call it the norm? The Prius gets high 40's easily. But it's a EV fluff piece published by "the EV company", one can't expect scientific integrity.

In fact, reading through the lines of Tesla's own fluff piece, in places like China the Prius is net-environmentally positive even year by year as compared to the Model 3. China has the most emissions of any country, so that's a pretty big caveat to simply ignore. But again, fluff piece by the fluff company.

[throw0101b]

> Toyota initiated the hybrid as a modern platform […]

E.g., the first Prius was released in 1997:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius_(XW10)

[WorldMaker]

> But since they don't want to be in the business of making undesirable vehicles with short lifespans that require expensive maintenance

The average BEV is lasting just as long as any other car on the road and the used market is not filled with "broken EVs requiring expensive maintenance". The opposite seems to statistically be the case: the used market for EVs is "barren" because the cars don't need expensive maintenance and often stay with their first owners for longer and when they do move to new owners don't often go through the traditional used market because they don't need as much maintenance.

You've been lead to believe some interesting misinformation. Toyota themselves have been a source of some of that misinformation, which is further unhelpful.

[seadan83]

Do you have citations? I can think of alternative & plausible explanations:

- the used car industry is just barren post-pandemic. Prices are up and inventory is super low [1]

- EVs are generally not that old! Why put a BEV up as a used car when it's just a few years old? The average age of a used car is 6.1 years (according to CBC in Sep-2023) [2]. Further, that 'used car' age is up from 4 years, which further indicates the first point that the used car market is very short on supply. Most of Tesla's sales have been in just the last 4 years [3], Tesla represents a lot of BEV car sales in the US (going from memory, it was about 75% and is down to around 55%). In such a short amount of time, most BEVs are essentially still brand new. Thus, BEVs not being in the 'used' market is somewhat expected since they are half the age of the average used car, most of them are under 4 years old.

Thus, their lack of presence in the used car market could easily be more a function of their age (relatively brand new) compared to: "don't often go through the traditional used market because they don't need as much maintenance."

[1] https://www.cbtnews.com/the-state-of-used-car-prices-why-are...

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/26/3-things-to-consider-when-bu...

[3] https://cleantechnica.com/2023/04/22/tesla-just-passed-4-mil...

[WorldMaker]

That CNBC article points out one of the big sea changes in the fast recent jumps from a used car average of 3 years (for decades prior to ~2017) to 4 years (prior to 2019) to 6 years is a big change by rental car companies to hold rental fleets longer. The biggest sea change for rental companies over the last few years has been a switch to a higher balance of BEVs in their fleets. It certainly seems to me to be causative, the used car age average is rising for the first time in my lifetime just as BEV ownership is rising doesn't seem to be a correlative coincidence and more indirect evidence that the BEV first owner lifetime is higher than historic ICE averages. (Possibly much higher given that 4 to 6.1 year jump in just one calendar year.)

The early EVs have passed their 10 year marks. Some are closer to 15 years. There's a very long tail of BEVs already on the road. The only models that statistically have shown "battery degradation" enough to remark on have been the early model years of the Tesla Model S and Nissan Leaf before both companies invested in active thermal management of their batteries. So far "to remark on" was "noticeable compared to factory spec", but most of those batteries remained in first use (as car batteries). I've heard of Nissan Leaf battery replacements as a mini-industry, but not due to battery degradation, due to massive jumps in density upgrading the early Leafs to larger range than their original spec. There doesn't seem to be much of a market yet for Tesla battery replacements and most of the numbers thrown around are speculation and/or misinformation.

[dumbo-octopus]

> The average BEV is lasting just as long as any other car on the road

Teslas haven't even existed as a car producing company for as long as most cars last, Toyotas in particular. Model 3's certainly not.

> The used market for EVs is "barren"

I just pulled up hundreds in a 10 mile radius of me on craigslist. Probably most needing $20,000 battery services.

> You've been lead to believe some interesting misinformation

No, you.

[mrguyorama]

Your 2004 Prius has a lead acid battery, hows that for "low lifespan" battery?

[callalex]

2003 was the last model year without lithium ion, and the years before that were nickel-cadmium, not lead-acid.

[oblio]

LOL. No EVs since the invention of Li Ion used lead acid. Lead acid just wasn't fit for a mass market car.

[belltaco]

> But since they don't want to be in the business of making undesirable vehicles with short lifespans that require expensive maintenance

Then why did they go all in on hydrogen cars?

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/analysis-it-is-now...

[dumbo-octopus]

"All in" is a very strange way to describe a multinational corporation producing in the single digit thousands of an item. They tried something, it hasn't panned out yet, they're sticking to what they know works in the mean time.

[enragedcacti]

Because the Japanese government bet big on hydrogen and heavily subsidized the industry. Also, is there any evidence that hydrogen vehicles have short lifespan or require expensive maintenance? I don't disagree about how undesirable they are based on fuel cost but its hard to suss out how much of that is just based on extremely low production.

[daveguy]

I'm not sure what could justify comparing the announcement of a single investment to upgrade a plant to the capex of an entire auto company.

Do you really think this $1.3B is Toyota's entire capex in EV?