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by carabiner 865 days ago
Easy to catch up when EV market is shrinking. Toyota is right, gas hybrids are the future. Awesome range, you don't have to own a home to charge one, no problems in cold weather.
2 comments

The thing about hybrids is that while you get the benefits of a gas engine (not needing to charge), you also get most of the combined drawbacks of ICE cars and EVs. You still need to go to the gas station, change the oil, maintain the belts and filters, etc. If you're mostly driving in EV mode, stale gas could even be an issue (though that's probably not a huge concern for most). But you've also still got electric motors and battery that could fail, although admittedly the battery is a lot cheaper.

IMO hybrids could have a lot of life as a stopgap, but full EVs are pretty clearly where things are going. We've got chargers being installed (Tesla 4th Gen) that can charge at 600kW. Cars can't handle that yet, but the current 800V platforms are getting closer. Once you can get the better part of a full charge in less than 10 minutes, it's not really less convenient than stopping for gas on a trip. And as more people get EVs (and even PHEVs), more buildings will be equipped with charging. Even a regular 120V outlet is fine for most people for day to day overnight charging - especially if they can get a quick top-up to near full at a supercharger when needed.

Summary: hybrids are great for a lot of people right now and in the near future. In the medium to far future, EVs are going to be superior in, I think, all relevant metrics^. (Even cost, as batteries will get cheaper, while the cost of added hybrid components will stay roughly flat.)

^Well, except weight and sound, specifically thinking of sports cars. I'd be a lot more excited about the new electrified Porsche 718 (Cayman/Boxster) platform if it were hybrid instead of full electric, for those reasons. Not super relevant for commuter cars though.

In present day reality though, most people live in cities in cheap apartments that won't have chargers for at least a decade. I watch woodpeckers destroy the wood trim at my building, you think mgmt is going to add EV chargers any time soon? Hybrids have superior reliability and lower cost of ownership than pure gas which is why uber drivers and nyc tax have adopted then en masse. All of the disadvantages of hybrids are theoretical or from some lofty "elegance" perspective when in the real world, hybrids work brilliantly. Toyota has been ruthlessly pragmatic with their cars and that's why they've worked. It's admirable how much they've avoided the EV fad and stuck to practical vehicles. It'll be at least a decade until they're on par with hybrids.
Definitely lower cost per mile due to the fuel economy. Clearly they make a ton of sense for taxis. Do you have evidence for the higher reliability than pure ICE cars? I hadn't heard that, and it seems counter-intuitive to me. I certainly know anecdotally I've heard many claims of Prius hybrid batteries failing. (Which isn't necessarily a huge problem, but just saying it adds a point of failure without, as far as I can tell, removing any.)
>If you're mostly driving in EV mode, stale gas could even be an issue (though that's probably not a huge concern for most).

volvo hybrids force engine operation in case gas wasn't refilled/used for too long.

Makes sense. So yeah, not something the end user would really have to worry about then.
well, if you will go to hybrid car forum to "peak covid" timeframe, a lot of users actually worried about it. this kind of stuff is rather obscure functionality mentioned deep inside the manual that nobody bothers to read.

also, this is volvo. no idea how other hybrids tackle this issue

The EV market was 30% larger in 2023 than 2022.
Lagging indicator. Hertz is dumping their Teslas and canceled their purchase of 65k Polestars.
If you want to cherry-pick random anecdotes I'll counter with multi-year waitlists for Hyundai EV9 despite being expensive and ineligible for the $7500 rebate.
Wait lists for a manufacturer are somewhat interesting. It's interesting that Tesla and Toyota both sell cars faster than they make them, and can get away with making new car buyers wait for months.

Wait lists for a single model? I mean, maybe Hyundai just aren't making a lot of EV9s.

>Hyundai EV9 despite not being expensive

It starts at €70k. In what world is this not expensive? Maybe in Bay Area Fang wages.

Sorry, typo. It being very expensive makes the wait-lists surprising. If it wasn't expensive wait-lists wouldn't be surprising.
> It being very expensive makes the wait-lists surprising.

Does it? Ferraris, Zondas and Koenigseggs also have big waiting lists.

Expensive things to the well off sell easier than average products to the ever shrinking middle class.

I guess compared to other competing family EV-SUVs in the segment it's not too expensive. Come to think of it, there isn't any. The Rivian R1S comes close, but way more expensive and isn't really a family SUV. The EX90 is also more expensive and according to some it isn't even nearly premium.
Maybe EVs aren't good rental vehicles. This seems like it would be true, at least until public charging infrastructure catches up. And at the same time, maybe EV adoption is growing really fast. That also seems to be true, because the numbers say its true.