[dmix]

Tesla recently announced they are ramping up their Model 3 production even more than what some people thought was already optimistic numbers: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-27/tesla-mod...

> For Musk to hit all of his targets, Tesla would need to build about 430,000 Model 3s by the end of next year. That’s more than all of the electric cars sold planet-wide last year.

> Even if half of the Model 3 inventory shipped to other countries, 2 U.S. sales under Musk’s targets would outpace the BMW 3 Series and the Mercedes C class—combined.

> To sell that many $35,000 sedans in the U.S. “would be absolutely unprecedented based on what we know about car markets today and how people spend their dollars,” said Salim Morsy, electric car analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “It could happen. I’m pretty sure it won’t.”

If they could pull this off this might be a great investment by Tencent.

It's also great for the car industry and environment as well. Especially considering their work on automated driving. If they get that many cars on the road it would give them a ton of data and a big advantage/lead in AI over other companies. But it could also be setting the bar too high and setting them up for failure (even though they might otherwise have nailed targets).

Regardless, as a design fan it would be interesting to see so many Teslas on the road. They are great looking cars.

[aphextron]

> To sell that many $35,000 sedans in the U.S. “would be absolutely unprecedented based on what we know about car markets today and how people spend their dollars,” said Salim Morsy, electric car analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “It could happen. I’m pretty sure it won’t.”

Model 3's will sell literally as fast as Tesla can push them off the production line. The pent up demand for this thing is insane. Over 400,000 people have already paid $1000 deposits on their cars.

The only thing that could possibly stop Tesla is their own inability to deliver.

[hueving]

Or withdrawals from people. The deposits are non-committal so people can cancel without losing anything.

[flexie]

I can't think of any product I'd rather have than a Tesla.

I think Tesla will sell millions of Model 3. Which other car is 400,000 people waiting patiently to buy for two years, even putting down a $1,000 deposit?

Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia.

[radiorental]

> Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia.

Sincerely, and with all due respect, this is a false analogy.

What happened to Nokia was pretty much self inflicted. Mismanagement, competing empires, complacency.

Apple did not start shipping low end brick phones and eat Nokia's market.

Post '08 bailout automotive manufacturers are lean and hungry (for the most part)

Furthermore, the 'traditional' car market, while slow to move, is not far behind. And in some cases is taking a longer view. E.g. Ford is going straight to Level 4 in 2022. Forget the ICE v. electric debate, that ship has sailed and everyone is heading to EV. The real battle will be to produce the safest self driving product.

I am long on TSLA, I expect them to do well however they are in a far riskier spot than Apple was when the iPhone dropped. They were healthy, profitable and experienced (+Jobs). TSLA is none of those.

I'm not disagreeing with your sentiment. I just thought we were past the Apple analogies.

[jaimex2]

I dont know...

Tesla is currently training their driving AI using the existing fleet in shadow mode. How do you skip this step and go straight to level 4? They need months of tuning outside a lab, worldwide.

A lot of car manufacturers still refuse to build an EV from the ground up. They are reusing an ICE platform and converting them to EVs.

Mazda don't even acknowledge that they need to build EVs. https://electrek.co/2017/03/07/mazda-no-pressure-from-custom...

heh, I'm sorry. Musk is still alive and surpassed Jobs long ago now, he's up to his 5th disruptive successful company. Online Payment, Cars, Space, Solar roofs and AI beat shiny laptop and smartphone.

[radiorental]

I see car companies getting off the shelf solutions from companies like Nvidia, which is what is being trained in Tesla's today. And Nvidia have their own demo. I genuinely wonder who owns the algorithm...

It actually makes sense to jump to level 4 from both a liability & design/platform perspective.

The fact that Tesla is bleeding through the first few stages with driver-in-the-loop doesn't necessarily mean they get to maintain a competitive advantage long term.

(Also, Mazda is a 2nd tier manufacturer, little resources, mostly Ford parts Inc drivetrain, engine and firmware)

Finally, I appreciate the Musk fandom. As someone with a little skin in TSLA, I aim to take an objective view fwiw.

[kayoone]

The german manufactures are not asleep at the wheel, get into the newest E-Class and despite it being a lot cheaper than a Model S, the self driving capabilities are impressive. Don't even let me start on the interieur quality, which is my biggest gripe with Tesla considering their price segment.

[Retric]

Car companies are selling bricks. In large part because of the used car market no company makes reliable and cheap because the cost conscious don't buy new cars.

Further, the dealer model forces high markups, heavy advertising, etc to attract the kind of people that buy new cars.

[AOsborn]

Fair opinion, but I think you are arguing the wrong point.

Apple ate market share from Nokia because of brand advantage.

Many commentators mention that manufacturers are improving their EV product, but I think that boat has long sailed: Tesla vs. Ford won't be about features, but the brand.

[radiorental]

Sorry, when the product is north of 30K, you'll find a significant number of people will put what they can afford ahead of brand loyalty.

[NeutronBoy]

> Which other car is 400,000 people waiting patiently to buy for two years, even putting down a $1,000 deposit?

None, but I would hazard a guess that's because if you want to buy a BMW, a Mercedes or an Audi, you don't need to. You can simply go and buy one!

[jkchu]

But the closest thing to a $35k electric car from BMW, Mercedes, or Audi is BMW's i3 - which I think is targeting a different market.

[NeutronBoy]

Agreed, but it's not about the brand - it's just that in the market segment for a $35-40k mid-size sedan, there's not a whole lot of need to wait two years for a car, which is why it's so uncommon. The reason it doesn't happen to other manufacturers, is because although they have 3-4 year lead times on new models they produce, they're still continuously producing the current models

[bkanber]

Don't forget about two car households. We have an x1 and an i3 as our commuter car. The i3 will eventually be replaced with a Tesla, the x1 will not.

[ryanmonroe]

Mercedes has the $40k B-Class electric car.

[coryfklein]

How about retiring 2-5 years early? That's about what you get if you invest the $35k instead...

[Pxtl]

https://xkcd.com/947/

[alister]

Here's another illustration of how our intuition about compound interest can be really wrong:

Futurama scene where Fry has been transported to the year 3000 and he still has his ATM card: The bank teller checks Fry's bank balance. She says, "You had 93 cents in your account in 2000. With an average interest rate of 2.25% compounded for 1000 years . . . that brings your balance to $4.3 billion dollars."

The math is correct. Plug those numbers into the compound interest formula, Pn = P0 (1 + r/100)^n, and you really do get $4.3 billion.

Your gut feeling is that even with 93 cents, you could retire rich. Not a billionaire, but comfy. It ain't so. In 50 years, you'd have $2.83. And even that $2 gain would be wiped out by a single monthly banking fee :-).

In 400 years, $6820. My intuition told me that I should be in the millions by then. Wasn't even close. Didn't even account for taxes and inflation.

[bkanber]

Ten years is short. Thirty years at 6% gives you $200k, for instance.

[thrillgore]

My life priorities will be different when i'm 59.5 years old compared to now.

[antisthenes]

I'm with you 100%.

If my basic needs like housing and healthcare were already met (unfortunately they aren't), my next purchase would probably be a Tesla or a Solar/Powerwall combo for the house, or both.

[jordache]

you do realize market forces for a $600 consumer device is very different than a durable good that costs 50x more?

Your anecdotal insight into how desirable the tesla is to you means nothing in terms of the market

[Matt3o12_]

Well, they lost access to $1,000 until they cancel (plus 3-6 weeks, since it can allegedly take Tesla this long to refund the money).

I don't think 400,000 have just $1,000 to spare for a really anything they will just cancel. The $1,000 mean that the person who reserved it really wanted the car and is unlikely to just refund it unless they have a very good reason to do so.

[slg]

I think the commitment of $1000 is overblown. What is the actual opportunity cost here? Maybe $50-$150 depending on the interest rate and time frame you want to use for your estimates. That is nothing in the scale of a car purchase and it buys you the right to receive the car several months quicker. Relatively speaking it is like someone paying $10 to have a new laptop shipped to them overnight instead of by ground except the shipping has been prepurchased a year before the laptop.

If you aren't the type of person who can find a spare $1000, you also probably shouldn't be the type of person who spends $30,000 on a car.

[MarkMc]

You are missing the psychological element. In general, people:

(a) Feel a strong obligation to be consistent with past behaviour - not just in placing the deposit, but then thinking and reading about the new car design and wanting a Tesla for months or years.

(b) Want to avoid admitting the 'mistake' of giving Tesla a free loan. Not just admitting the mistake to themselves, but also to all their friends they told about their deposit.

(c) Hate giving up something they 'own' - ie. their place in the queue

(d) Value something that's scarce more than something that's easily available

(e) Are more likely to want something that other people love and are queueing up to buy.

[MarkMc]

Thinking about this a bit more, Musk should run a split test: Half the people queued for a Model 3 are offered $100 to move to the back of the queue. People who decline such an offer will feel compelled to buy the car when it is released in order to be consistent with their previous actions. I'm confident this would boost sales, but the split test would tell us for sure.

[rco8786]

I think you vastly underestimate how much demand is represented by 400,000 people willing to part with $1k before a product even exists. Refundable or not.

[slg]

I am not questioning the demand. I am questioning the commitment of people who put down a refundable deposit on a product they had very little information about. I am one of those people who threw down my $1000 before any of the presentations. I am still not sure whether I will purchase one. My interest has actually waned with recent leaks like the complete lack of any dashboard readouts. However I am still perfectly fine with Tesla keeping my deposit until I make a final decision. The opportunity costs of that extra $50-$150 is worth a lot less to me than the chance of securing a Tesla quickly if a do make the purchase (not to mention it increases my odds of a full federal tax rebate). I can't imagine I am the only one of the 400,000 with that mindset.

[elihu]

The sort of people who would consider buying an expensive sedan can probably afford to loan Tesla $1000 for a year or so.

I reserved a Model 3 because I figured that if I didn't, I would be at the end of a very long waiting list and would probably lose out on the federal rebate. The most likely outcome is that I'll decide that's too much to spend on a car and cancel, but it still made sense to me to keep my options open.

I expect a lot of those reservations to be converted to actual sales, but a lot of them won't. In any case, I think Tesla will have plenty of demand if the product meets expectations.

[Matt3o12_]

Fair enough but there are many foreigners who do not have a tax credit and still made a reservation.

[manquer]

You could always sell it immediately.. you would probably get even a slightly higher price than you paid by impatient people

[_ph_]

A $1000 deposit is a significant commitment to ordering the car, even if it is fully refundable. Very few people would do this until they are basically decided on buying this. For everyone who would reconsider, there are for certain plenty of people, who are interested in the car but would not put down money without a test drive first. So, judging from the deposits, I would rather assume the actual list of interested buyers way exceeds the amount of people who put money down.

[an_account]

I disagree. I put down the deposit because I wanted to reserve my spot in line. Putting down $1k now isn't that much if it might save me $8K in tax credits by having an earlier spot in line.

I still haven't figured out if I can get a charger in my apartment building. I haven't decided I like the look of the car. I haven't even decided I want a sedan.

I love Tesla, so on the chance that I do want the car I put down the deposit. But I'm still 50/50 on actually buying it. I imagine many are in a similar positions.

[agumonkey]

Curious, did Tesla published updated stats ? or anyone else for that matter. The announcement numbers were way above expectations, but it's not much if half of that evaporated after the hype.

[greglindahl]

Apparently Tesla has not published an update. This article https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/03/14/teslas-model-3-res... guesses that the number hasn't changed much, due to the "Customer Deposits" line on Tesla's quarterly balance sheet.

[wfunction]

> Or withdrawals from people. The deposits are non-committal so people can cancel without losing anything.

I feel this is going to be the killer for them.

[MattRix]

Sure, there will be tons of people who cancel... but then there will also be tons of people who wanted to wait until the car was fully finished before signing up to get one. They'll be fine.

[harichinnan]

This is the car version iphone, with people queuing up at the store days before the product is seen. I would believe they would stop production exactly at 400K cars, the current waiting list and start a new Model 4 waiting list. They have an air of exclusivity now with their current models. People still gawk at the sight of a Tesla. They would want to maintain that awe factor with Model 3 as well.

[TheSmiddy]

You're assuming a pure profit motive. Literally everything Elon Musk is doing has a strong element of trying to save the world.

The goal of Tesla is to make every new car sold electric, if they have to command 100% of the market they will do that, but they'd rather there be some competition.

[tuna-piano]

I would assume that a company investing billions would try very hard to make accurate sales estimates.

I would be surprised if Tesla isn't surveying random people on the list, asking questions about their planned purchase and making estimates on the % that will end up cancelling.

[wfunction]

> I would be surprised if Tesla isn't surveying random people on the list, asking questions about their planned purchase and making estimates on the % that will end up cancelling.

I hope this would give an accurate result. People might say one thing and do something else when they have to actually shell out the money...

[philmcc]

I disagree. The backlog will be so long, that there will almost certainly be someone who will pay for your spot in line.

The same thing happened with the S and the X. "Flipping" a 3 won't be difficult.

[Tepix]

That will be a good reason why people who choose not to buy a Model 3 for themselves will not cancel their preorder and sell it instead.

[mpclark]

Is there a secondary market for places in the line?

[ryanmarsh]

I can't remember a product that sold 400,000 preorders (many of which were sight unseen) with a $1,000 deposit in my lifetime. I think anyone trying to downplay the demand isn't looking at it in the right context.

[smogcutter]

A related concern is how well their repair and service operation scales. There are already repair horror stories all over internet for the relatively tiny number of cars already on the road.

The model S is a beautiful car, but it's a luxury toy. I'll venture that most Model S owners have at least one additional car. If you're in the market for a 35k sedan though, you're looking for a commuter and family car that needs to be reliable. Having it out of commission for three weeks while the one repair shop within 50 miles waits for a backordered part is unacceptable.

[w8vY7ER]

It is worth noting that Jon McNeill (Pres. Global Sales and Service) took the time to post on a user forum in direct response to service delays and spoke with a fair bit of detail about how they are fixing the problem. Whether or not you are a fan, I think everyone can agree that this level of engagement is a strong positive for their cause. https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2004525/

[smogcutter]

That's really interesting. Seems like the answer is they need a lot more third party shops - the problems that McNeill describes sound like the kind of thing that happens when there isn't enough competition. If I'm a model 3 customer, I don't really care about your service record in Palo Alto. What can you do for me in Skokie?

Very interested to see how all this plays out. The success or failure of the Model 3 could decide whether Tesla is the next Ford or the next Delorean.

[koreyb]

Ford doesn't do batteries, solar, supercharging stations, autopilot tech, etc. Delorean produced 8,583 vehicles. :) But I get your point.

[radiorental]

> autopilot tech

On the contrary. They're well along that path.

Not sure what solar has to do with cars.

And charging stations? Do you think that's profitable secret sauce?

[jodrellblank]

Tesla bought SolarCity http://www.theverge.com/2016/11/21/13698314/tesla-completes-... - even if they totally flump on cars they still have solar installations, gigafactory (developments), charging stations they could lease and tech/patents they could sell to other EV manufacturers.

[koreyb]

Let me know when Ford autopilot is available on the street. They did buy Argo, but current Ford projections are saying 2021..

"whether Tesla is the next Ford or the next Delorean" Tesla is neither of these because it is more than a car company. It is vertical integration that incumbents can't match at this point.

? Yes, of course. You must not own an electric car.

[greglindahl]

The problem McNeill discussed was related to 3rd party body shops. Tesla does not do any body work in its repair centers.

[smogcutter]

Right. The point is that soon they'll need a whole lot more of them, and first party repair centers as well. "Sorry, we have trouble with quality control at 3rd party shops" isn't going to cut it for a mass market car.

Re: Ford and Delorean, this is not the hill I want to die on. But what I mean is that the batteries, charging stations, etc, all live or die with the cars. If they can successfully create a mass market for consumer EVs, sky's the limit. If not, you can see a future where Detroit eats their lunch and the Model S is a footnote.

[greglindahl]

Uh, what fraction of body shops do aluminum? Model 3 is not like Model S/X. And problems at body shops has nothing to do with problems at first party repair centers. I'm happy to agree that the future is uncertain, but you aren't adding much in the way of fact into the discussion.

[koreyb]

Yep :)

[greglindahl]

I was responding to smogcutter, not you. Your comment about Ford and Deloran was great, so I didn't need to make that point, and I upvoted you for it.

[dilemma]

So they need a network of dealers.

[jd20]

Personally, I've found The vehicle itself to be very reliable. But they need to scale out service operations. I can call an Audi dealer and have my car brought in within a couple days (or go to one of many third party shops). With Tesla, they're typically booking 1-2 months out (and that's in the bay area, where we have like 3 service centers). Luckily, the only times I've had to bring in my Tesla, it was something super non-trivial.

[ithinkinstereo]

This reminds me when the iPhone came out. Tesla is making a revolutionary new product. Millennials are also coming of age now through the next decade. Many of these buyers, either purchasing first-time, or upgrading their "college/hand-me-down" car, will buy Tesla, just because it's fashionable (ala iPhone).

I'm bullish on Tesla and Musk.

Edit: I should add that the product extends past the car itself. The whole direct to consumer, transparent pricing, no haggling, will win over a new generation of buyers.

[Revisor]

> Millennials are also coming of age now through the next decade.

Millenials start from 1981 so some of them are nearing 40. Generation Z is coming of age.

[kpil]

If they can deliver the cars, and at a reasonable price, you are probably spot on.

[ithinkinstereo]

I think for a young late 20s, early 30s professional with disposable income, maybe a baby on the way, it's really a no-brainer deciding between a 3-series, C-class, Volvo, vs a Model 3.

And if you can only afford a Camry/Altima/Jetta/etc. a 5-10K increase in price for a much better (perceived) product is also a no-brainer. People will def max out their credit to get the upgrade to a Tesla.

The above, doubly-so for Chinese consumers.

Model T :: iPod --> Model 3 :: iPhone

[aaronblohowiak]

Does the model 3 have sufficient room for a rear facing car seat? One of my main concerns

[bitexploder]

If I can fit a family of four in a 2012 Mustang it is nearly inconceivable a mid-size EV would not have enough space. Almost inconceivable that it won't have plenty of space.

[jd20]

One thing I've wondered about this: exactly what data is Tesla able to collect from the vehicles on the road? I've not found this on their website, nor any way to opt-out of data collection. For a vehicle with an always-on camera and cellular connection that can't be shut off, you'd think more people would be concerned about this.

[taneq]

This is my primary concern about Teslas. I'd love one from a pure tech and driving point of view, but I'm not willing to submit to a panopticon just to get one.

My second concern is aftermarket serviceability. I would never buy a car that the manufacturer could later remotely disable (leaving me with no recourse) just because they feel I've breached their ToS or something. Tesla is far too much like Silicon Valley software companies in that regard - 99.9% of the time "you'll be fine", but the other 0.1% of the time you're screwed and there's no way to fix it.

[SXX]

How many people you know concerned about what data their phone software collect on them? Their laptop? Web browser? Facebook?

Probably not many. So Tesla will do just fine too.

[grecy]

> “would be absolutely unprecedented based on what we know about car markets today and how people spend their dollars,” said Salim Morsy, “It could happen. I’m pretty sure it won’t.”

That quote implies people won't choose to buy that many Model 3's. We know there are almost that many pre-orders, so it's not a question, and it's not something to be doubted. It's a fact people will spend their money that way.

[kristianp]

Isn't it an error for the article to compare the Model 3 to the luxury brands? The 3 isn't going to be a premium/luxury car like the S is.

[ZeroGravitas]

Has anyone looked into the various subsidies around the world? It seems that Tesla are smart enough to design around various regulations and taxes. SUVs became a thing in part because of differential tax treatment, and I've heard in the UK that company cars and business vehicles are heavily slanted towards electrification (both hybrid and full EV) I can see things changing faster than people would think based on the retail prices.

An interesting follow up would be investigating how much those subsidies cost or earn for the governments that provide them e.g. if you can provide all your electricity from homegrown hydro electricity rather than imported gasoline, then how much money does it save you to have an EV on the road. Is all that value being passed onto EV users?

[forgotpwtomain]

> environment as well

It's not going to do anything great for the environment and we've been over this on previous Tesla threads (years ago). Driving electric cars instead of hybrids in areas where the electricity is primarily derived from unclean sources is not better than hybrids for the environment.

[heygrady]

> Driving electric cars where the electricity is from unclean sources is not better than hybrids for the environment

Some of the widely reported research about the power generation and electric cars is flawed [1]. Electric vehicles and hybrids come out about even in the worst markets, like Missouri [2]. But nearly everywhere else, an electric vehicle is better for the environment. People don't always consider that the electric grid is moving away from coal [3], which means your electric car will get greener during the time you own it without you having to upgrade it.

[1] http://midwestenergynews.com/2016/04/20/minnesota-study-chal...

[2] http://blog.ucsusa.org/rachael-nealer/gasoline-vs-electric-g...

[3] http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/08/renewab...

[smilekzs]

Unclean power plants are still vastly more efficient than the most efficient internal combustion engines. That's why trains are electric wherever possible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_locomotive

[wott]

> Unclean power plants are still vastly more efficient than the most efficient internal combustion engines.

I don't think so.

> That's why trains are electric wherever possible.

1. Thing is, you don't have to refuel electric locomotives, so that saves time and logistics. Unless you plan to install a pantograph on the roof of your Tesla, you still have to refuel it.

2. Unlike cars, diesel locomotives do not use any kind of direct transmission anyway, they generate electricity from Diesel engines to power electric motors. Because unlike cars, they have to transmit huge power and torque to make the first wheels turns, and mechanical transmissions are not good for that, but electric engines are. So since they use electric engines anyway, why not power them from electrical energy instead of diesel? That's why locomotives are electrical wherever possible.

[Coincoin]

You don't think so? Is that your opinion or a fact?

Most calculations I've seen seem to conclude electric are more CO2 efficient per mile; from 2 to 9 times depending on which state is producing the power.

[bkanber]

> Unclean power plants are still vastly more efficient than the most efficient internal combustion engines.

I'm an automotive engineer specializing in hybrid vehicle powertrains. Published and everything.

As of two years ago the only country in the world where the power source makes an EV not worthwhile, well-to-wheel emissions-wise, was India. Every other country in the world has clean enough power production to make EV cars an environmental net positive.

And I believe India's power is getting much cleaner over the next few years, so it may not be the case much longer.

[toephu2]

Side topic: just curious what powers Caltrains's trains?

[knappe]

And everyone said that of the Prius too. And now we have fully electric cars. You have to start somewhere or you get nowhere.

[j6m8]

The important distinction is that this abstracts the "cleanliness" away from the individual. Replacing one coal plant with a wind plant, for instance, is far more easily done than waiting for all affected consumers to replace their cars.

[bkanber]

> Driving electric cars instead of hybrids in areas where the electricity is primarily derived from unclean sources is not better than hybrids for the environment.

As of two years ago the only country where that was the case was India. Right before that, South Africa and China both became clean enough for EVs to be an environmental net positive.

Power produced in the US is some of the cleanest in the world, and getting cleaner every day as coal plants are decommissioned. We are well above the environmental net benefit line.

> Driving electric cars instead of hybrids in areas where the electricity is primarily derived from unclean sources is not better than hybrids for the environment.

There are no longer significant areas where this is the case. Even most coal markets in the US are clean enough (not sure what will happen with new de-regulations). The US, on average, is by far clean enough.

Source: I'm a hybrid vehicle powertrain engineer

[kriro]

The entire clean energy argument depends on your classification of nuclear energy. Long term storage issues put it squarely in the unclean category for me so I'd argue that US energy is by and large pretty unclean. I'm also pricing in the expected value of meltdowns in my unclean rating. It's hard to quantify exactly but the black swan events have pretty catastrophic consequences for the environment. Since I've witnessed two very severe ones in my lifetime, one in what many people would call a technically very advanced country I don't think it's unreasonable. If you think that's tinfoilhat-crazy, fell free to talk to an insurance or reinsurance company about insuring nuclear plants fur a fon conversation.

[bkanber]

Nuclear power is only 20% of US energy production.

Nuclear waste is a political problem, not a scientific or engineering one. We're not allowed to recycle it the way we want. Blame President Carter.

Coal power puts more radiation into the atmosphere than nuclear does.

You have no idea how to "price" the cost of meltdowns into your "unclean" rating. TMI's incident did not have any effect on public safety.

I don't think it's tinfoil-hat-crazy, I just think it's uninformed.

[kriro]

Just to clarify. the two incidents I was referring to were Chernobyl and Fukushima (as they are INES 7). The Three Mile you mention was "only" INES 5. I'd argue it's still pretty bad but INES 7 is what I'd consider the black swan events.

[Qwertious]

>Driving electric cars instead of hybrids in areas where the electricity is primarily derived from unclean sources is not better than hybrids for the environment.

ICE cars are far less efficient than fossil-fuel power plants, due to the weight/size restraints of a car-engine form-factor. Given this, electric cars actually do emit less energy than cars that burn fossil fuels.

But frankly, you're looking at this the wrong way - most electric cars are at the start of their life, and have at least 10 years' worth of use, if not 20 or more. Given that renewables will inevitably become a major portion of the electricity grid within 10 years (and realistically, almost certainly within 5), they'll become more efficient in the future, and make renewables reduce even more CO2 emissions, since they're punting petrol away, too.

[m_mueller]

as you indicated - this depends on where you live - and if you're ready to just fix the problem yourself with solar power. Stating that it won't help is IMO misleading - Tesla is basically offering you all the missing tools to carry a high energy American lifestyle towards being carbon neutral. The footprint you missed in terms of consumed goods or at home, could be compensated by buying CO2 certificates.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16K4gNhy_AN8Eg4Ov3z7p...

[MattRix]

Not better in the short term, but still better in the long term, as it leads to greater adoption of electric cars, etc.

[colordrops]

What would you propose instead?

[karussell]

Instead of the battery the less toxic way would be hydrogen based engines.

[colordrops]

How would you make the hydrogen though? Does it suffer the same criticism as your original comment?