[flexie]

I can't think of any product I'd rather have than a Tesla.

I think Tesla will sell millions of Model 3. Which other car is 400,000 people waiting patiently to buy for two years, even putting down a $1,000 deposit?

Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia.

[radiorental]

> Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia.

Sincerely, and with all due respect, this is a false analogy.

What happened to Nokia was pretty much self inflicted. Mismanagement, competing empires, complacency.

Apple did not start shipping low end brick phones and eat Nokia's market.

Post '08 bailout automotive manufacturers are lean and hungry (for the most part)

Furthermore, the 'traditional' car market, while slow to move, is not far behind. And in some cases is taking a longer view. E.g. Ford is going straight to Level 4 in 2022. Forget the ICE v. electric debate, that ship has sailed and everyone is heading to EV. The real battle will be to produce the safest self driving product.

I am long on TSLA, I expect them to do well however they are in a far riskier spot than Apple was when the iPhone dropped. They were healthy, profitable and experienced (+Jobs). TSLA is none of those.

I'm not disagreeing with your sentiment. I just thought we were past the Apple analogies.

[jaimex2]

I dont know...

Tesla is currently training their driving AI using the existing fleet in shadow mode. How do you skip this step and go straight to level 4? They need months of tuning outside a lab, worldwide.

A lot of car manufacturers still refuse to build an EV from the ground up. They are reusing an ICE platform and converting them to EVs.

Mazda don't even acknowledge that they need to build EVs. https://electrek.co/2017/03/07/mazda-no-pressure-from-custom...

heh, I'm sorry. Musk is still alive and surpassed Jobs long ago now, he's up to his 5th disruptive successful company. Online Payment, Cars, Space, Solar roofs and AI beat shiny laptop and smartphone.

[radiorental]

I see car companies getting off the shelf solutions from companies like Nvidia, which is what is being trained in Tesla's today. And Nvidia have their own demo. I genuinely wonder who owns the algorithm...

It actually makes sense to jump to level 4 from both a liability & design/platform perspective.

The fact that Tesla is bleeding through the first few stages with driver-in-the-loop doesn't necessarily mean they get to maintain a competitive advantage long term.

(Also, Mazda is a 2nd tier manufacturer, little resources, mostly Ford parts Inc drivetrain, engine and firmware)

Finally, I appreciate the Musk fandom. As someone with a little skin in TSLA, I aim to take an objective view fwiw.

[pmorici]

That is no longer true with respect to Mazda.

[radiorental]

Good to know, just sold my '04 Mazda 6 which was pretty much all Ford. After looking it up I see that Ford reduced ownership from 1/3rd to 10% in '08. Thanks for the correction.

[kayoone]

The german manufactures are not asleep at the wheel, get into the newest E-Class and despite it being a lot cheaper than a Model S, the self driving capabilities are impressive. Don't even let me start on the interieur quality, which is my biggest gripe with Tesla considering their price segment.

[vsl]

"Impressive" is not the word I'd use. If you didn't drive Model S, perhaps. Otherwise, meh.

http://www.thedrive.com/tech/4591/the-war-for-autonomous-dri...

[Tepix]

I agree. However they are still behind with regards to cars that are designed from the ground up to be electric.

[Retric]

Car companies are selling bricks. In large part because of the used car market no company makes reliable and cheap because the cost conscious don't buy new cars.

Further, the dealer model forces high markups, heavy advertising, etc to attract the kind of people that buy new cars.

[AOsborn]

Fair opinion, but I think you are arguing the wrong point.

Apple ate market share from Nokia because of brand advantage.

Many commentators mention that manufacturers are improving their EV product, but I think that boat has long sailed: Tesla vs. Ford won't be about features, but the brand.

[radiorental]

Sorry, when the product is north of 30K, you'll find a significant number of people will put what they can afford ahead of brand loyalty.

[ethbro]

Lots of people really love Ford.

And with an EV, there won't be that awkward moment when their friends ask how their transmission is doing...

[NeutronBoy]

> Which other car is 400,000 people waiting patiently to buy for two years, even putting down a $1,000 deposit?

None, but I would hazard a guess that's because if you want to buy a BMW, a Mercedes or an Audi, you don't need to. You can simply go and buy one!

[jkchu]

But the closest thing to a $35k electric car from BMW, Mercedes, or Audi is BMW's i3 - which I think is targeting a different market.

[NeutronBoy]

Agreed, but it's not about the brand - it's just that in the market segment for a $35-40k mid-size sedan, there's not a whole lot of need to wait two years for a car, which is why it's so uncommon. The reason it doesn't happen to other manufacturers, is because although they have 3-4 year lead times on new models they produce, they're still continuously producing the current models

[bkanber]

Don't forget about two car households. We have an x1 and an i3 as our commuter car. The i3 will eventually be replaced with a Tesla, the x1 will not.

[ryanmonroe]

Mercedes has the $40k B-Class electric car.

[cjrp]

With a 124 mile range [http://www.mercedes-benz.co.uk/content/unitedkingdom/mpc/mpc...].

[coryfklein]

How about retiring 2-5 years early? That's about what you get if you invest the $35k instead...

[Pxtl]

https://xkcd.com/947/

[alister]

Here's another illustration of how our intuition about compound interest can be really wrong:

Futurama scene where Fry has been transported to the year 3000 and he still has his ATM card: The bank teller checks Fry's bank balance. She says, "You had 93 cents in your account in 2000. With an average interest rate of 2.25% compounded for 1000 years . . . that brings your balance to $4.3 billion dollars."

The math is correct. Plug those numbers into the compound interest formula, Pn = P0 (1 + r/100)^n, and you really do get $4.3 billion.

Your gut feeling is that even with 93 cents, you could retire rich. Not a billionaire, but comfy. It ain't so. In 50 years, you'd have $2.83. And even that $2 gain would be wiped out by a single monthly banking fee :-).

In 400 years, $6820. My intuition told me that I should be in the millions by then. Wasn't even close. Didn't even account for taxes and inflation.

[misja111]

Another thing that many people forget is that while compound interest gives you more money, at the same time inflation makes your money worth less. So what you should really be looking at is the difference between the inflation and the interest rate: the so called 'real interest rate'. Currently in the US, that rate is negative ..

[JBReefer]

I feel like I can't get a handle on the inflation numbers I see. I pay - and the math checks out - roughly the same amount for gas, produce, and essentials. My smartphone is 1/3 the cost it was 10 years ago.

And then housing and health insurance is like 2.5 times higher. It all totals to be the official rate, but man does it feel uneven.

[bkanber]

Ten years is short. Thirty years at 6% gives you $200k, for instance.

[Ntrails]

what? Not on $1k it doesn't.

1.06^30 is like 5.5 ish? Unless you mean on saving 1k pa which is not what they are talking about, and means you're very much changing the game (and apparently not derisking towards retirement)

[bkanber]

On $35k, the price of a Tesla, which is what prompted that xkcd link

[Ntrails]

Ah, that makes more sense. Sorry!

[sidegrid]

35k?

[thrillgore]

My life priorities will be different when i'm 59.5 years old compared to now.

[antisthenes]

I'm with you 100%.

If my basic needs like housing and healthcare were already met (unfortunately they aren't), my next purchase would probably be a Tesla or a Solar/Powerwall combo for the house, or both.

[jordache]

you do realize market forces for a $600 consumer device is very different than a durable good that costs 50x more?

Your anecdotal insight into how desirable the tesla is to you means nothing in terms of the market