[harichinnan]

This is the car version iphone, with people queuing up at the store days before the product is seen. I would believe they would stop production exactly at 400K cars, the current waiting list and start a new Model 4 waiting list. They have an air of exclusivity now with their current models. People still gawk at the sight of a Tesla. They would want to maintain that awe factor with Model 3 as well.

[TheSmiddy]

You're assuming a pure profit motive. Literally everything Elon Musk is doing has a strong element of trying to save the world.

The goal of Tesla is to make every new car sold electric, if they have to command 100% of the market they will do that, but they'd rather there be some competition.

[MegaButts]

> Literally everything Elon Musk is doing has a strong element of trying to save the world.

Maybe. Or maybe he's just saying that to make money. If Elon Musk ends up being completely successful in all of his endeavors, he will be the world's richest person by far.

I suspect the truth is in the middle. He does want to change the world, but he's not willing to become poor (let's say a net worth of less than a million dollars) in the process.

I have no problem with people getting rich, especially if they've earned it. But I see Elon Musk as a salesman more than anything, and he's damn good at it. He has generated a cult following of people who believe he is doing everything possible to save the planet.

I am very skeptical that Elon Musk is half as great as he's made out to be on certain internet forums. I do not mean to say he is not an incredibly accomplished person, only to say that he does not live up to his self-generated hype.

Of course time will tell. I truly hope he is as great as people make him out to be. But I just don't see it. Hopefully he makes me into a believer by delivering on all his promises.

[jodrellblank]

He's 79th richest person on the planet at age 45 with only Zuckerberg being richer while also being younger.

He was foundationally involved in one of the biggest early online payment companies, one of few private rocket launch companies with NASA contracts, basically the single electric car company to change the world's views on electric vehicles, and a major solar / battery company.

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_mu...

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_mu...

https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2rgsan/i_am_elon_musk...

These are Reddit AMA quotes from a car company CEO.

Do you really think it's likely that he can't code, can't handle electronics, doesn't understand rocketry, doesn't understand any engineering, hasn't earned any riches, and is just tricking everyone and leading a cult of personality?

If the combined 50,000 employees of Tesla, SpaceX and Solar City can't deliver on his promises, that means he's a fraud? And if they can, it's solely down to his brilliance?

If he's only half as great as he's made out to be, that's still 200th richest person in the world and head of only one or two international industry changing companies, but that's just not good enough for you?

smh.

[MegaButts]

"I do not mean to say he is not an incredibly accomplished person, only to say that he does not live up to his self-generated hype."

I think that summarizes how I feel, which is why I said it. I never said any of the things you imply. But let's take a specific example which shows why Elon Musk isn't as great as he says.

Tesla's autopilot function has killed at least 2 people (one in the US and one in China). Elon Musk continues to spin this technology as amazing, and completely overhype the technology by saying it can achieve level 4 autonomy. As someone who's spent over 10 years working on self-driving cars, I can tell you definitively that the sensor suite on the upcoming Tesla cannot do it. And now you'll say "well maybe he knows something you don't" You're right - maybe he does. But if he doesn't then he's a liar and he should be called out on it because people have literally died and he has shirked himself of responsibility for it.

Elon Musk is a salesman first and foremost and people have literally died as a result of it.

[nickjarboe]

World annual traffic deaths in 2010 were estimated by the WHO to be 1.25 million. If Elon Musk has the guts to let people voluntarily test out a system that ends up killing 100 people (and this estimate seems very high. The system could save more than it kills during development) but develops a system that reduces traffic deaths by just 50% one year earlier, that would be saving 625,000 lives. From a practical human suffering perspective, I am glad he is pushing hard to develop automatic cars a soon as possible.

Also: reusable rockets.

[MegaButts]

The problem with this is he is selling it as a working product. Imagine if pharmaceutical companies could eventually cure diseases by testing a drug on consumers, but sold it to them as working - when in reality it is going to kill a bunch of people while the company figures out what works. In the long run this could be a win, but would you be okay with that?

The obvious solution to my complaint - rename Autopilot something else so people don't confuse it as a self-driving car (and many people do think this).

I don't think Elon Musk is interested in educating the public. I think he's interested in dazzling them. Which is why he strikes me as a salesman.

[consultSKI]

>> Of course time will tell.

Time has already done that. He is simply put, the real deal. Major car OEMS are always talking about what they will do in three (or more) years from NOW. Elon has done it. Is doing it. And will continue to push the envelop. Zig Ziglar reminds us that EVERYONE sells. Elon is just that much better at it. Then he executes unlike very few others. I didn't get the merger, but now with the home batteries and commercial ones, I do. Brilliant.

[MegaButts]

Tesla is nowhere near GAAP profitable, and after numerous instances of "this is the last time we're raising money" Elon Musk has once again secured a large loan for Tesla. It is still very risky, especially now that GM is already selling the Bolt before the Model 3 has even come out.

SpaceX is nowhere near their goal of colonizing Mars. Yes, they are working on it, and more power to them, but it's not done yet. I love what this company has accomplished, but it's nowhere near reaching Musk's current trajectory.

Solar City went bankrupt and Elon had to pull several strings in order to save his relatives' company. Sure, there is an obvious alignment between Solar City and Tesla but it clearly wasn't doing great.

Elon Musk has an excellent track record of making promises and delivering on them years later. As his promises become more ambitious, and he spreads himself thinner, it becomes more and more likely that he will fail at some point. My money is on Elon Musk becoming the modern Greek tragedy. I want the guy to succeed, but he's clearly making promises he can't deliver with Tesla (it doesn't matter how good their software is - and frankly it's pretty bad compared to the competition - they can't make a level 4 vehicle with their intended sensor suite) and I suspect he's doing the same for SpaceX.

Elon Musk has accomplished a lot, and he deserves recognition for that. But if he makes a promise and fails, he should also be called out on his bullshit.

[harichinnan]

Unless Musk gives away much of his wealth in his lifetime, he could very well be the world's first trillionaire. Think of Toyota and Exxon Mobil rolled into one with virtually no competition in sight.

To put things in perspective, this car is just 10 grand more than a full featured Toyota Camry. In countries that import both cars and oil like India, the price of the Tesla would be less than a Camry if they reduce the import tariffs. It's a foreseeable option to reduce foreign oil dependency. Also in developing countries, for every person that can afford to buy a Tesla and also knows how to drive, there would be dozens more who can't drive but could very well afford one. Once Tesla delivers their first 400K cars and proves they can drive themselves anywhere in the world, the demand would far exceed supply in the foreseeable future.

[Tepix]

He will need all the money he can get to realize the Mars colonization efforts.

If most of the things he plans to to are realized he will make even more money in the process.