[DecentShoes]

That's great, but the writing is still on the wall if Toyota doesn't get serious about electric cars.

With their current trajectory Toyota is headed at 1000mph directly towards being the next Blackberry, Kodak, Nokia or Blockbuster.

I say this as someone who owned a Prius for 10 years and loved it, and have also driven their hydrogen car. The BZ4X is badly named overpriced garbage, not enough and not good enough. The clock is ticking and they have to act yesterday to avert disaster and they're sitting their twiddling their thumbs.

Currently Tesla is the iPhone to Toyota's Nokia and they're going to have to work very hard very soon to turn that around or their company will die.

[ssl232]

The iPhone did everything the Nokia 3310 did, better. Electric cars do not (yet) do better some things hybrids do, such as being able to be fuelled with 400+ miles of range in 5 minutes.

I’m nowhere near the point of wanting an electric car to replace my hybrid. The convenience of petrol and the cost of electricity is too high. High electricity costs aren’t going to be fixed in my country any time soon so Toyota will continue to have a huge market here.

[discordance]

Very little maintenance is one big feature. After 3 years I have only had to change the tires, air filter and windscreen wipers.

For long road trips I’ve never had an issue stopping to rest/stretch while fast charging for between 15-30 mins.

[SirHumphrey]

Sure, but we are talking about a Toyota so there is (at least in my experience) not that much maintenance to begin with.

[dotancohen]

Toyotas may need less repairs than other vehicles, but of course they have the same maintenance schedules and costs as other vehicles.

Compare periodic oil changes, spark plug changes, ignition coils, stolen catalytic converters, exhaust system, PCV system, air and fuel filters, brake pads, transmission fluid, and other ICE maintenance items with the electric drivetrain. At 120,000 km I've replaced the tires once and the brake pads look brand new. That's it. Even the windshield wipers are still in good shape for some reason.

[theoreticalmal]

Oil filters and brakes are on the easier spectrum of maintainenance, but I’d still rather not do them if I don’t have to (which with my EV, I won’t)

[tonmoy]

Most EVs these days can recharge 300ish miles in 15 mins, but 99% of the time I don’t even have to drive anywhere to refuel as it get recharged overnight in my garage. EVs are waaay more efficient in terms of MPGe so at least for me it is less half in terms of cost to refuel compared to petrol not even considering the external cost of emitting CO2

[bigstrat2003]

15 minutes is still not as good as the 2 minutes it takes to fill up a gas tank. Electric cars just aren't there yet for long drives, though they are great for everyday driving around town.

[snowwrestler]

The iPhone actually had way worse battery life than basically any Nokia. It’s a great comparison. People happily traded more features for having to plug their phone in every night.

[numpad0]

iPhone also had same modem as everyone. It wasn't a Wi-Fi device, it was a phone-computer hybrid.

Compared to that, EVs feel more like Wi-Fi or WiMAX device that owners would say theirs are daily drivable but only make Discord calls. Overall situation more closely resemble PDAs before iPhone.

[stavros]

Just make sure you don't drive one, or you'll change your mind.

[iwontberude]

We’ve been driving them for over a decade now. They aren’t new anymore, and they still aren’t a panacea. There is this cool thing called car rental, it lets you use cars that aren’t your own.

[stavros]

There's also this thing called reading comprehension, I don't know where you can rent it, but sometimes it does help on online forums.

[iwontberude]

There’s also a thing called repeating a joke format for effect. And it’s not a very good effect.

[stavros]

I can see that.

[iwontberude]

Wait was your original comment being sarcastic? Because if so, spot on. They really do be speaking like that.

[irjustin]

It's weird right? I get that Nokia honestly couldn't see it coming, it was basically the first in recent history. Too much too fast, RIM included.

But all the bigwigs currently in Toyota are the age to have seen and lived that transition. It's not like they're new to battery tech.

And they say - wow look at that... nah, let's build hydrogen.

[breve]

> nah, let's build hydrogen.

No, they're saying let's build cars. Because Toyota has been building hybrids for so long they already meet the fleet emissions standards they need to meet. There's no pressure on them to rapidly switch to BEVs.

BEVs will make up a greater percentage of Toyota's sales as time goes on. In the meantime, Toyota is perfectly happy setting company sales records.

[LightBug1]

Currently EV's are the iPhones to Toyota's Nokia and they're going to have to work very hard very soon to turn that around or their company will die.

Fixed that for you. I give Tesla another 2-5 years before their number is up and they'll limp along and become another also ran.

There's no way they can compete with what's to come and even what's happening now.

I have some friends, who are definitely not HN readers or avid followers of the EV market, and they've already swapped out their Teslas for BYD. It didn't take much for them to make the move. And what's coming is already far beyond what Tesla have on the table.

They had a good ride. And definitely should be credited with being the starting gun on one chapter of automotive revolution. But it's over for them (in the EV space). They know it too ... hence their attempted pivot to ... * insert flavour of the month*

[breve]

> That's great, but the writing is still on the wall if Toyota doesn't get serious about electric cars.

This sentiment doesn't match the practical reality. Toyota is the best selling automaker in the world.

In 2011 Toyota sold 7.9 million cars. In 2023 Toyota sold 11.2 million, a record sales year. It looks like 2025 might set a new sales record for Toyota:

https://www.autoblog.com/news/nearly-900000-cars-sold-toyota...

Toyota isn't getting the car business wrong. Toyota is getting it right.

BEVs will make up a greater percentage of Toyota's sales as time goes on. The notion Toyota somehow doesn't understand the car business is just false.

[nebula8804]

Don't they have a RAV4 EV coming Fall 26? Thats one of their top models. With new generation design that looks nice! They seem pretty serious if they are putting their signature model into EV production. Not to mention their other EVs launching in 2026.

Have Tesla released any new models? The hot thing that people are waiting for right now is not really a new model, its the return of the turn stalk. I mean I get that they sell well because there is lack of options but if you take a step back, this is clown company behavior.

[octagons]

Toyota moves more slowly than many other brands because of their company culture/philosophy.

To your point about BEVs, Toyota started producing BEV batteries at their plant in North Carolina this year: https://www.toyota.com/usa/operations/map/tbmnc

[nixass]

> That's great, but the writing is still on the wall if Toyota doesn't get serious about electric cars.

Toyota is following national direction where natural resources are scarce, including generating electricity. It's actually government's idea to chase hydrogen as a viable alternative to dyno juice.

>With their current trajectory Toyota is headed at 1000mph directly towards being the next Blackberry, Kodak, Nokia or Blockbuster.

Lol absolutely not. Toyota is well positioned with their hybrids while also having EV in the pipeline. Have in mind that great majority of world population has no viable means to charge their cars either reliably, cheaply or at all. Hybrids make great sense in great majority of use cases.

> Currently Tesla is the iPhone to Toyota's Nokia and they're going to have to work very hard very soon to turn that around or their company will die.

Oh FFS

[jansan]

> That's great, but the writing is still on the wall if Toyota doesn't get serious about electric cars.

It seems they know what they are doing. Toyota is a very profitable car manufacturer, with profit in 2024 more than Tesla and Volkswagen combined. Unlike Nissan, the maker of the best selling EV of all time, who is struggling very hard.

[decimalenough]

Tesla sells nearly as many cars in a quarter (497,099 in Q3 2025) as the Leaf managed in its entire lifetime (577,000 between 2010 and 2022).

[jansan]

I stand corrected, the Leaf figure was wrong. Nevertheless, Toyota is very profitable despite (or because?) it does not sell a significant number of EVs. Margins on EVs are currently extremely low or even negative, and that is hurting EV manufaturers more than ICE manufacturers.

[hopelite]

Is the hating Tesla tantrum over?

That being said, you can’t really compare the sales of all of Teslas to the sales of one specific form factor/model with any kind of seriousness. Nor do I think it’s a fair comparison to compare Tesla that has parted on various hype patterns over the years to tap the zealots into even becoming their free advertisement and marketing departments not unlike how Apple fanboy cult people at least used to be. Toyota is a mature, reasonable enterprise whose sales are orders of magnitude larger than Tesla’s and there are many people’s lives dependent on being reasonable when shifting things, not “disrupt” in a typical tech bro narcissistic way.

For context Tesla has roughly 2 million sales with 125,000 employees, Toyota has 11 million sales with 385,000 employees. I assume I don’t need to do the math for you.

And that’s without going into the various battery issues and the now conflicting electricity interests between EV and AI.

[rogerrogerr]

The Toyota number is very misleading because dealership employees don’t have Toyota badges; they have Dave’s Hometown Stealership badges. Tesla store employees have Tesla badges.

You’re counting customer-facing employees for Tesla and leaving them out for Toyota.

[lotsofpulp]

95% (actual percentage) of Teslas sold are Model 3 or Model Y, so one can cut that sales figure in half and still reasonably compare to the sales of another model.

>And that’s without going into the various battery issues and the now conflicting electricity interests between EV and AI.

I do not understand what this means. Isn't the same gas used to power vehicles used to power turbines that provide electricity?

[floundy]

This is hilarious projection of your preferences and market predictions onto every other consumer.

I bought a 2024 Toyota hybrid. I don’t care about electric vehicles and won’t bother reinvestigating them until 2034 at the earliest. I don’t see the problems with electric vehicles being solved anytime soon in the US.

[2muchcoffeeman]

Tesla is not the manufacturer to beat.

[defcontracter2]

Toyota won't build BEVs in scale, nor will most of the Japanese brands. They can't.

Japan can't build the batteries for BEV's at the necessary scale for global production. Yes China controls lithium but they also control some 95% of global battery grade graphite production, and anywhere from 60% to 90% production of manganese, cobalt, and nickle. Not to mention all of the components that those produce like the anodes and cathodes.

And the big problem with that is the Japanese genuinely fears there's going to be a war in the pacific. A big one. Fearful enough that Japanese government allocated $320 billion USD to be spent from 2024 to 2029 specifically to turn the JSDF into a proper military, and establish and sustain a new domestic military industrial complex.

The main flashpoint the Japanese are afraid of is a Chinese military attack on Taiwan, which leads two major possibilities. Either the US intervenes with the military, or it does not.

If the former, then China has to find a way to take away as many of the US Navy's advantages as they can. One of which is the major resupply facilities for the US 7th fleet in Yokosuka. Push comes to shove then I have little doubt that the Chinese will launch missiles into the Japanese harbors to deny the USN and JMSDF capability of repair and rearming via kinetic means. But I'm certain they'd prefer to pressure the Japanese into reducing or removing the US presence from Japanese docks.

Pressure like say being able to potentially cripple 10% of Japanese GDP that's in it's automotive sector if hypothetically Japan was dependent on Chinese exports of BEV batteries. Not exactly with precedent either; China tried to cut off Japan from rare earth metals once (admittedly that backfired on China) and China's recently put on export license restrictions on graphite.

Like it or not, the Japanese know it, the Chinese know it, and even the US is fully aware of it. The US is right now building new US navy bases in the Philippines just in case Japanese harbors become denied to the USN. Also why the Japanese are building up it's capability to strike not just far off Chinese naval assets but potentially into the Chinese mainland as well; the first an order for 500 US made Tomahawk missiles are already being installed right now on JMSDF destroyers.

On the other hands, if it's the former and the US chooses not to intervene... well it's gonna get very lonely for Japan out there all by itself.

You know the really sad part though? The Japanese were relenting a bit because they signed the US Japan Critical Minerals Agreement in 2023 which in effect promised no undue burden for the Japanese to get access to critical minerals. They just didn't dive head in because it was signed under the Biden administration.

Given the Trump administration's open hostility to BEV's, his erratic trade policies, and his open musing about withdrawing from mutual defense agreements (normally NATO but not a stretch to think he'd extend that to the Japanese US one as well I don't think they've made the wrong choice. Or rather more accurate that it's the least risky choice out of a bunch of awful choices.

[ZeroGravitas]

China is in the process of crippling 10% of Japan's GDP in automotive, just by building EVs and EV components and selling them to other nearby countries where Toyota (and other Japanese brands) currently dominate and hae vchosen not to compete in this new format. So we don't need Tom Clancy to generate scenarios where this will be bad for Japan.

[decimalenough]

Exactly. Look no further than Thailand, long a bastion of both Japanese car manufacturing and Japanese cars locally:

https://www.ft.com/content/e33a2cbf-9a7e-4964-8914-c129d2947...

The absolute numbers are still small, but as momentum shifts to EVs, Japan's market share will collapse.

[prodipto81]

Got

[dzhiurgis]

Why make electric cars when you can bribe politicians to tax EVs and promote hybrids?

[cenamus]

Are you talking about Toyota or every german automaker ;)

[nixass]

Or even US government? (by removing incentives)

[bigstrat2003]

Removing incentives is not "taxing EVs", it's leveling the playing field. If EVs can't compete without the competition being tilted in their favor, they aren't up to scratch yet.

[dzhiurgis]

If EV costs more you pay more sales tax / gst / vat.

Also most places now tax EV registration with extra fee or per mile so you add fair share towards roads making hybrid TCO lower.

[breve]

Hybrids sell better.

Toyota sells more cars than any other automaker. 2023 was a record sales year for Toyota. 2025 is looking like it will be another record year for them:

https://www.autoblog.com/news/nearly-900000-cars-sold-toyota...

[ozgrakkurt]

EVs are trash compared to equal price gas car. For example if you compare camry with a similarly priced EV, BYD or Tesla doesn’t have quality/reliability at the same level

[realusername]

I'd say the EU manufacturers are in an even worse position than Toyota as their electric lineup isn't great and they have massive reliability problems on both ICE and BEV cars unlike Toyota.

Currently they only survive in the EU thanks to tarrifs on Chinese cars.

And I would say the opposite about Tesla, they experienced the biggest selling drop of all brands combined, if there's one brand going to crash first, I'd bet on Tesla.

[gorgoiler]

Can you elaborate on (or link to some resources on) EU manufacturer quality issues? I have a hunch I know what you mean but I’d like to know more.

[Lio]

Really? I think Renault are on a roll at the moment.

The Renault 4, Renault 5 and Megan seem really competitive.

The new Nissan Leaf (made in UK) also looks pretty good.

VAG seem to have lost the plot (“let’s replace all the controls with a small, janky touch system that leaks personal information to hackers”) but their ID.7 isn’t total crap.

Comparing Renaults to the Chinese brands I’ve seen (MG and BYD) the Chinese brands were a bit cheaper but they really felt it with cheap interiors and uncomfortable seats. I’d rather pay a grand more and get a car I like.

[stavros]

I have a BYD Seal and it's by far the most luxurious and best quality car I've owned, and my previous car was a Mercedes. I don't know what you've tried, but it doesn't feel cheap at all

[Lio]

I only buy mass-market cars. I've looked at MG 4s, 5s and BYD Dolphins. I didn't rate any of them.

I view all cars as depreciating liabilities and so have little interest in buy either Seal or its Mercedes equivalent.

[izacus]

ID.7 is the most sold EV model in EU so "not total crap" is an interesting definition. Other ID models are selling well too

[pxndx]

What's your source? it's the 5th in this ranking I found: https://autovista24.autovistagroup.com/news/europes-best-sel...

[izacus]

Eh, it was Germany this year: https://www.goingelectric.de/zulassungszahlen/2025/Februar/

Still, 5th is far from "eh" - on a test drive it ended up quite a nice Passat level car.

[izacus]

What are you on about though? EU EV sales are through the roof and pretty much all brands now have good EV cars.