There are no such examples among the rich nations of the world. As such the example of Brazil is not apt. Even if you persist in it being apt you must all compare the number of such examples to the number of examples where gun ownership is illegal and where criminals rarely have guns.
Through buyback programs and legal penalties for possession, the amount of weapons in meaningful circulation would likely decrease substantially over a period of years.
As that process occurred, the value of the weapons would spike as scarcity took hold, and tactically-useful firearms (e.g. semi-auto) would become expensive on the black market. This would mean that criminals would need to be far more judicious with how they carried and used them.
It is very plausible that this scarcity effect would lead to a meaningful reduction in the possession and use of firearms by low-level street criminals, which would also by extension lead to a reduction in levels of firearms-related homicide, assault, and intimidation.
A low-level narcotics broker is less likely to carry around a Glock that costs $10,000 (which they have to dump off of a bridge or in a storm drain every time it's used in a homicide), than they are to carry around a black-market stolen Glock that cost $600.
> As that process occurred, the value of the weapons would spike as scarcity took hold
This seems implausible. The number of guns used in crime is in the tens of thousands each year.
The number of guns sold this year was more than 20,000,000.
The number in circulation is greater than 400,000,000.
Even in Australia compliance with gun buybacks wasn’t much more than 50%, and they didn’t have a second amendment.
The idea that Guns will become scarce in the US any time soon is simply unrealistic.
As for the 10,000 glock, that situation is also just a fantasy.
In London criminals can simply rent guns, fairy cheaply but with a high deposit. They only discard them if they fire them in a crime, otherwise they return them and get their deposit back.
This way, even just one gun can be used by hundreds of criminals at minimal expense, and with little risk of being caught possessing an illegal weapon.
One thing is, you have to subtract bolt guns, and bolt gun calibers from circulating firearm and ammunition totals. That should cut the number down quite significantly.
The guns wouldn't instantaneously disappear overnight in this scenario. It would take 10-20 years to see a sizeable impact.
I have an interesting quote related to the UK and gun laws:
Gun deaths remain extremely rare in Britain, and very few people, even police officers, carry firearms. But the growing presence of American weapons on the streets, which has not previously been widely reported, comes as serious violent crime, like murders and stabbings, has risen sharply.
So, hey, U.S. firearms restrictions might have some very positive outcomes for the U.K. (and Mexico as well).
I'd love if you could share an article about that firearms rental operation, how prevalent those weapons actually are, and if they're coming in from the United States.
I could theoretically manufacture a pistol-caliber carbine myself for under $1000, including the 3d-printer. As in, from bar stock + hydraulic pipe + DC current source + 3d printed components. Look up the FGC-9 - it's pretty impressive.
That's with current tech, and I don't think the tech of 20 years from now is going to be worse. If anything, 3d printing will be even better.
Now, that FGC-9 isn't nearly as concealable as a standard Glock. But I'm sure there's ongoing efforts to make a home-manufacturable semiauto pistol, too.
The more interesting thing to manufacture yourself is ammunition - smokeless powders are rather flammable, primers take that and scale it to 11 with a side of toxicity, and case manufacture has a lot lower tolerances than you'd think. (Bullets are comparatively easy, if you have a source of lead stock and can make a mold) But the number of guns in circulation in the US pales in comparison to the amount of ammunition stockpiled - estimates generally put annual sales at 8 to 10 BILLION rounds of ammunition. A lot of that is fired each year, but that's still a hell of a stockpile to go through first.
I think you raise a really interesting point with this, and I want to offer a counterexample that I managed to come up with.
So, yes you can make an FGC-9 in your garage. Fair enough.
But are the barriers to manufacturing one in the garage sufficient to significantly reduce proliferation?
So, my example is the widespread absence of fully-automatic weapons in U.S. crime. Any schmuck with a lathe and a milling machine in the garage can crank out fully-automatic sub guns like it's Christmas in Sarajevo in 1993. But nobody does. You only very rarely hear about full-auto being used in the commission of crimes. Why? Perhaps the illegality, expense, and manufacturing hurdles (however small they might be) are just good enough to prevent meaningful proliferation in the way we see with semi-autos today.
The ammo thing is an interesting point too. I would think one of the biggest hurdles would be to homebrew ammo that was clean-burning enough not to immediately jam something like an FGC-9 in small calibers. I looked into cartridge case manufacturing and I guess there's a brass drawing process or something. I wonder how difficult it would be to base a design around CNC machined cartridge cases instead?
There are valid reasons to believe that gun prohibition will not significantly decrease the use of guns in crimes in the U.S. Believing that gun prohibition won’t work because drug prohibition hasn’t worked is as invalid as the argument that gun prohibition will work because slavery prohibition worked. There are examples of countries that suddenly implemented strict gun control laws successfully whilst unsuccessfully prohibiting illicit drugs. Therefore it is not valid to reason that gun laws won’t work because they haven’t worked with drugs.
That, but also Swiss are rich and are an exception in the entire World.
But looking at the numbers to add more context: Switzerland is very different from USA.
First of all gun ownership in Switzerland is around 25%, it's over 40% in USA.
Secondly, 25% of Swiss own a firearm, not a gun, in USA gun ownership (meaning a gun) is at 22℅
In Italy gun ownership is at 12% and gun deaths are almost zero, as in Switzerland most of the legally owned firearms are rifles for hunting purpose, kept locked in a cabinet.
Nobody in Switzerland sleeps with their gun under the pillow and nobody thinks it's a solution to crime, that's the biggest difference.
I am sorry what? You predicate your statement by saying Switzerland is rich... I am sorry but those who are not “rich” should also be allowed to own firearms. Predicating ownership by wealth is just classist.
Secondly: Americans own too many guns and that's stupid.
third: USA is the richest country in the Worlsd and the largest owner of guns on the planet, so please don't make it a class issue, because it's really not.
Finally: Swiss are rich, they have an higher education on average so they don't end up shooting each other on the street like in the USA, were they think that owning firearms is a solution to poor education.
The only 2 places in Europe where there have been domestic mass shootings that were not terroristic attacks are Switzerland and Norway, not surprisingly the two countries that own more firearms.
That's a counterfactual argument. It is by definition unprovable. I said that Europe shouldn't be considered a gun control success, not that if there were guns, WW2 would have been prevented.
During the Weimar era and the Nazi era, gun control laws were put into place. That is a historical fact.
Also, hint: saying that Hitler was voted into power as if it were an average democratic vote deeply misunderstands the situation. I suggest reading more about the era, specifically Ian Kershaw's book.
I might have miss understood your argument, but to me it reads like you wanted to imply that the implementation of gun controls ~lead to~ supported fascism and ultimately lead to WW2.
> I always find it odd how Europe is used as an example of gun control success. Especially when it comes to the issue of oppressive governments.
> World War 2 happened less than a century ago. During Weimar and the 1930s, pretty strict gun laws were put in place.
I live in Canada, we have very strict laws about who can get and how to get guns. 80% of gun crime is committed by people that don’t have a license, and got them from unauthorized places. Making something illegal doesn’t make it go away, just creates a black market. Criminals also don’t give a hoot about laws, by definition.
The relevant statistic is not the one you mentioned. One expects the outcome you cited. What is the frequency of gun involvement in crime in Canada vs. the United States? That’s the relevant comparison.
It’s easy to grow marijuana, for instance. I can do it. I can not manufacture a gun easily. In countries where legal gun ownership is hard to obtain they have much lower rates of crimes involving guns while at the same time having ready access to illegal drugs. Your counterpoint is not apt.
Not only can you make a gun easily, 3d printed or not, you can even bootstrap (I don't just mean handload) ammo now. Criminals will hella have hella guns and the cat is too far from the bag to put it back. Even individual manufacture isn't a real hindrance as long as your network contains someone who can make a gun.
The old Improvised Munitions handbook has instructions for how to make a "zip gun" with little more than pipe and a nail. Guns are easy. Safe, reliable, long-lasting guns require a bit more work.
Guns are not hard to make yourself, now, if you have a little competence with tools. In ten-twenty years, you'll be able to print off as many as you want with absolutely no technical skill.
Stopping people from killing others with guns is a cultural and social issue. Trying to fix it by blocking access to guns is an ever-more losing strategy.
There are lots of examples of countries whose ban on guns work and whose ban on drugs doesn’t work. Therefore it is a bad argument that guns can’t effectively be banned since our ban on drugs hasn’t worked.
Easy enough if you have access to the necessary power tools (usually a drill press or a router). There are a number of companies creating unfinished lower receivers and providing kits for one to finish it themselves. It's also legal in the US.
It's as easy to smuggle guns into the US as it is to smuggle in drugs that aren't grown there. It's also pretty easy to manufacture them. I suspect the latter is just your perception from never having tried.
I don’t know much about gun smuggling. Do you have sources or experience in this area to know that gun smuggling is as easy as drug smuggling? My impression, not based on experience, is that gun smuggling can’t occur at near the level that drug smuggling does. For one it’s far easier to track the manufacturing of guns as the location of factories is well known and public knowledge.
Is it your contention that any old fool like myself can produce useful guns (ones that don’t explode when I shoot it) and ammunition? Does this ability scale the same way that growing marijuana does?
You might know where the factories are, but what does that matter if manufacturing guns isn't illegal in those places? At present, guns are smuggled _out_ of the US quite effectively [1]
As for whether it's easy to produce a working gun: well, generally you can purchase the component parts of a gun on some continuum between raw materials and final product. The exact point on the continuum that you make your purchase depending on your risk level and how restrictive gun component laws are where you live. After that it's a case of following schematics and a little machining skill.
However, it seems unlikely that individual criminals would manufacture their own guns, in the same way that drug users don't typically manufacture their own drugs. It would require investment into machinery and minor expertise, but the barrier to entry is low enough that suppliers shouldn't have much problem stepping in to meet demand. I would assume that the US has the highest prevalence of gunsmithing expertise of almost any nation at this point. Those skills won't vanish overnight.
If you're really interested in making a home made gun, without involving a supplier, there are already ways to do that [2]. It seems unlikely a ban on 3D printing or other machinery and raw materials would work out.
I’m aware of 3D printing. At this time it is not ubiquitous or cheap enough for mass consumption. When it becomes so then the comparison to the drug trade will become more apt.
There are lots of examples of countries with effective illegal drug operations and effective gun control. Therefore the belief that banning guns will necessarily be as effective as banning drugs is provably false. As such it’s a poor argument. There are lots of valid reasons to believe that banning guns in the U.S. won’t work.
Your first half is somewhat valid (sans DIY culture). A portion of drug consumption is domestically produced. But you’re ignoring the international and inter-state drug trades.
I.E. Columbia accounts for 43%[1] of the global coca supply. Taking your argument at face value, Colombians would consume 43% of the worlds coca supply having no impact on your ability to purchase cocaine in, say, Miami.
Comparing other countries success on one form of prohibition doesn’t give much insight. Compare it to America’s success on current and historical prohibition. American’s don’t honor prohibition.
Comparing across generations is not valid as times and perceptions and social values change. What didn’t work in the past may work in the future.
I’m not ignoring the nature of the drug trade. I’m claiming that the drug trade and drug smuggling are not apt comparisons to illegal gun manufacturing and smuggling. I don’t have any other claims. The argument that making guns illegal can’t work because it didn’t work for drugs is a dumb one.
> Comparing across generations is not valid as times and perceptions and social values change.
No need to look across generations. There are plenty of prohibitions to choose from today. Like automatic rifles and opium.
> I’m claiming that the drug trade and drug smuggling are not apt comparisons the illegal gun manufacturing and smuggling.
I’m going to hazard a guess that you don’t come from a gun culture.
Otherwise law abiding citizens smoke weed. Likewise they source fully automatic mods for their rifles and hoard bump stocks.
And these are just hobbyists.
Add in the game theory incentives of organized crime and their already established distribution channels (the same distribution channels they’re using to move drugs). I don’t understand how it isn’t close to apples-apples.
So let me try another explanation for why I think the comparison with the drug trade is not valid. We have many examples of European countries where guns are effectively illegal to own in the sense of being hard to legally obtain. These same countries have well developed illegal drug operations. These same countries have much lower use of guns in crime. These countries are counterexamples to the argument:
Making guns illegal won’t be effective because making drugs illegal hasn’t been effective.
As such this argument is not valid. A person who wants to intelligently argue why banning gun ownership in the U.S. won’t work must use a different argument.
All criminal laws have as their aim to make prohibitions of certain behaviors. All fail at 100% efficiency but most do well in terms of regulating acceptable behavior over time. The prohibition on slavery was quite effective in the U.S. If you want to argue that banning guns in the U.S. won’t work go ahead and argue that. Just don’t use the foolish argument that since banning drugs didn’t work in the U.S. then banning guns won’t work. It is sloppy thinking.
I can think of a lot of reasons why banning guns in the U.S. won’t work. You alluded to one of the reasons why I think this. None of my arguments on why this won’t be effective in the U.S. have anything to do with the ineffectiveness of the war on drugs.
Yes. I ought to have specified that I was referring to countries with the same level of socio-economic development. I intended to compare like to like so to speak.
In countries where gun ownership is hard to obtain legally criminals have much lower rates of gun ownership. Banning legal gun ownership does not prevent all criminals from accessing guns but it does prevent most of them from accessing guns. Importantly it prevents for the most part gun involvement in crimes of passion.
Even more importantly, it discourages even habitual criminals from accessing and using guns. It is certainly possible to obtain black market handguns in the UK, but criminals know that (i) possessing them risks much more severe penalties, and convictions even if evidence of the other crimes they were involved with is inconclusive (ii) the risk of them being shot if not able to shoot someone disturbing their criminal activity first is usually negligible and (iii) more police resources are devoted to rumours of buying guns than rumours of selling drugs or other black market goods. So the average British burglar doesn't own a gun, the black market isn't a huge one and even many gangs that pride themselves on violence mostly or exclusively use less efficient weapons.
Of course, culture also plays a role: the UK never had many handguns or shootings before stricter regulations came in, and when they did gun owners generally complied.
Even if the USA banned gun ownership, which would require a constitutional amendment and given views on the issue by majorities of the populations of some states, would thus be quite impossible, even then there would be the practical issue of enforcing that ban.
Immediately after the ban, there would still be gazillions of guns floating around the US. It would take multiple decades after the ban until the positive effects can be felt. During this time, the criminals would absolutely still have guns while the law abiding citizens would not.
Furthermore, there are huge smuggling activities at the US's southern border, making it possible for guns to enter on that route. Maybe if a strong border wall is built, it can be pulled off somehow.
Also don't forget that there are wild animals in many parts of the US, like say in Alaska. Sometimes you need to have a gun.
Not to mention the country would almost certainly split if guns were banned. I have zero doubt a large chunk of the states would secede so the ban would only effect states that don't leave.
My point was that it takes decades until the point you responded to becomes invalid. Even if Biden banned all guns tomorrow, it's likely that criminals will keep having guns during the life span of everybody alive today.
if guns are illegal their cost will go up. the cost of the weapon itself, plus the fee for smuggling obvious contraband. It will also be much easier to spot and arrest people carrying guns, as there will be no legal concealed carry permits. There are hundreds of millions of guns in the US, people will always be able to get them. but illegalization will make it more of a pain in the ass
The overwhelming majority of Americans, I'd guess over 90%, do not live in places where they need firearms to protect them from wild animals. Why should hundreds die from gun violence in cities every year because of the off chance that someone in Alaska will encounter a bear?
Your stat shows that (i) Myanmar's citizens were not unarmed and (ii) privately owned firearms were more widespread in 2007 when the country had been under the control of an autocratic military junta for decades than in 2017 when it appeared to be transitioning to semi-democracy. Myanmar is certainly not well functioning, but it is also certainly not an example of effective gun controls, or an example of widespread private firearm ownership preventing autocratic regimes from doing what they like.
All I said was that it is possible to enforce gun laws if the government is well-functioning, which was probably an overstatement.
All I'm trying to say is that if the government is serious about gun control and has control of it's law enforcement (which was a proxy for 'well-functioning', outlaws will not have them)
There are a number of countries that have laws on the books, but does a terrible job of enforcing those rules.
All of this is irrelevant to the discussion of whether the laws should exist or not.
For my needs, Myanmar isn't a country worth discussing in terms of gun control because it's not like the citizenry has a voice in drafting policy and owning small arms has been a way of life there for decades, and does it seem to have resolved their issues with "representation"?
Correct, the initial transaction is from a legal dealer or private seller to a legal buyer who will pass a background check. The legal buyer then turns around and illegally sells it to someone who cannot legally own a firearm. This is called a straw purchase.
Only because all criminals have guns. Because guess what. Guns are legal.
There were many stories during the "firey but mostly peaceful" demonstrations last year of people who were ordinarily liberals trying to buy guns for personal and home defence and discovering to their horror that that actually there is a background check and a waiting period, you can't just buy one on a whim. Nor can a friend legally just lend you one.