[dangero]

I'm pretty skeptical about resale value on the Model S at 5 or more years out just because their newer models will have major technical advances and the cost of a battery replacement. It's hard to speculate on that right now since the car is too new.

[dave1619]

Resale value in 5+ years out should be very good. I've been watching the used market for over a year and it's been very, very strong. There's not much used inventory being sold and owners seem to love the Model S's.

The other factor with resale is that the Model S is light years ahead of any other cars in terms of technology. So, in 5 years the current center console of the Model S will still be far superior in terms of user experience than any other car in the market IMO. This will help resale value.

Another point is that current users are experiencing very little degradation on their batteries, even after 20-30k miles of usage. After 5 years/70k miles, the battery will probably still be at 95% capacity and this will help resale as well.

Also, with EVs in general you are buying not just the car but the battery. Think of it as you're buying your future gasoline with the car purchase (of course this isn't a perfect analogy because you still need to pay for electricity), so that's why EVs tend to have fairly good resale value.

Lastly, Tesla demonstrated a battery swap (in less than a few minutes) last year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY). They've hinted that eventually you'll be able to upgrade your pack by paying the difference in value between your used pack and the new pack. No details have come out on this as of yet.

[pbreit]

"After 5 years/70k miles, the battery will probably still be at 95% capacity"

No way. I'd say you have 75% tops (probably less with 70k miles). And unless you pre-buy a new battery you're going to be looking at a $20-30k replacement cost. Also note that it will likely be out of warranty at that point. And that Tesla values them at roughly $1 per mile (the price they give you for purchasing a loaner).

[timdorr]

The battery replacement cost is $12k for an 85kWh: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/2013-model-s-price-increase

And the retention is closer to 85% at 100k miles: http://www.plugincars.com/tesla-roadster-battery-life-study-... (Keep in mind, the Roadster has a previous generation of battery pack technology)

[pbreit]

As I noted, that's the pre-pay cost.

And Tesla itself would disagree as it has stated 70% after 7 years/100k miles.

I'd be careful to compare with the Roadster either way.

[NickM]

Tesla itself would disagree as it has stated 70% after 7 years/100k miles.

Citation? I've never heard of Tesla claiming anything close to that.

[pbreit]

From Tesla S-1: "We currently expect that the Tesla Roadster battery pack will retain approximately 60-65% of its ability to hold its initial charge after approximately 100,000 miles or seven years"

Any citations for whatever you've heard.

[makomk]

That's $12k now in order to get a replacement battery in 8 years time, it'd presumably be more if you paid at the time, and it's not clear they're even offering the scheme - that post just says they will "in the near future".

[epistasis]

I always wonder where these super-confident statements come from that seem to be contrary to reality.

How do you know? Why are you so certain? Where do you pull these numbers from?

It seems like a surefire recipe to ruin one's credibility.

[pbreit]

I was quoting Tesla.

[NickM]

Not that I'm disputing your point, but I think a lot of people make assumptions about EV batteries that aren't necessarily true. Nobody really knows for sure right now, but I think it's very possible that a Tesla battery pack might last for quite a long time.

I know in the past I've thought "hey, my iPod battery lost most of its capacity after five years, I guess li-ion batteries just don't have that much longevity." What I didn't know at the time was that different types of lithium ion battery chemistries yield drastically different lifespans. Studies have also repeatedly shown that temperature makes an enormous difference to longevity, and the Model S has a pretty fancy HVAC system designed to keep the battery within an optimum temperature range as much as possible.

Again, I agree with you that it's hard to really have any idea what the resale value will be in the future. But if we're guessing blindly, I don't think it's totally unreasonable to make an optimistic guess.

[robomartin]

For some reason I can't quite put my finger on I have been viewing everything that comes out of Tesla with skepticism and distrust. I think it started with the attempt to confuse people with "creative" financing options.

I know it is a good company. I was waiting for them to revolutionize the SUV market with a true sports-utility electric vehicle. I would have been in line to buy one. Instead they are putting out a bullshit Gucci gull-wing contraption that is a total let-down. That's when I ceased to be interested in Tesla.

For a number of reasons we recently purchased a used two-year-old low-mileage BMW. For a little more money we got extended coverage that takes care of everything for seven years. We even covered the (expensive) tires.

We could have bought more than one fully-covered low-mileage certified-pre-owned BMW for the cost of a single Tesla.

My wife ran over something and punctured a tire a couple of months ago. Being a "run flat" tire, she drove to the nearest BMW dealer. They gave her a loaner car for the day and, for a $50 deductible, replaced the $500 tire and cleaned and washed her car.

So I read an article like this and my first reaction is: Who are they trying to fool?

[pjc50]

They've not made a SUV because they tend to be inefficient due to their size and weight.

Starting at the top end of the market and providing limited options is the Apple approach, likely to lead to profit but not necessarily market share.

[warfangle]

> Instead they are putting out a bullshit Gucci gull-wing contraption that is a total let-down.

What's a let-down about it? Legitimately curious.

[robomartin]

> What's a let-down about it? Legitimately curious.

The problem that needs a legitimate solution is that of the 8 to 12 mile per gallon SUV. What is needed is an electric Suburban. What isn't needed is another $100K class non-S, non-U vehicle.

Try to throw a couple of kayaks, bikes, rowing shells, some lumber or camping equipment on this sorry-ass Tesla design.

All you are getting is more comfortable entry and exit if you use it exactly as you might a car.

If you put anything on the roof the rear passengers are trapped.

I've owned a range of SUV's and minivans over the years. I couldn't even begin to imagine having a real family life with kids with the Tesla offering.

I mean, tomorrow I am going to Home Depot to buy five sheets of plywood for a project. They are getting strapped to yhe roof rack. No problem.

[bryanlarsen]

Easy access to third row seating is a solved problem. But sliding doors aren't "cool". So they either get replaced with over-engineered contraptions like those silly gull wing doors, or even worse, they get replaced with standard doors that pretty much render the third row useless, like most SUV's do. (assuming child seats, which is the bulk of your 3 row market)

[warfangle]

The original parent implied strongly that it wasn't just the falcon-wing doors (two-hinged; the e.g. delorean had only one hinge) that was a total let down. Made me think they were let down by capacity or clearance or torque or Other Criteria(tm) as well.

> or even worse, they get replaced with standard doors

But we're talking about the X here, which doesn't.

[jdeibele]

I think a big let-down is that there's still no pricing available for the car. I see estimates from third parties that it's expected to be 5-10% more than a comparable Model S but there's nothing official that I can find.

The doors seem silly. I drive an Odyssey and love sliding doors for the kids or the dog or when I have an armload of groceries. I've seen the sliding doors back up when they bump into something. I know they work. And they're reasonably fast, which is important when you live in Oregon with the rain.

[meisterbrendan]

As a potential Model X buyer, I hate the idea of those doors.

I currently drive a Subaru Outback and would be replacing it with a Model X so I could cart myself and some friends for weekend skiing or surfing trips.

Unless I'm missing something, the gullwing doors preclude a roof rack, which is a deal breaker for me.

[ulfw]

You're absolutely spot on. Sadly you are getting downvoted for it.

[acgourley]

That's an excellent point but I would just temper it with the fact EVs should have lower long term maintenance issues for all non-battery parts. As an aside, I wonder if in 5 years you will be able to upgrade into a more powerful battery.

[dba7dba]

Whenever I'm sitting around waiting for oil change/tuneup/etc for my 2 cars in the family, I am tempted to look into Tesla. Having to sacrifice a Sat/car every few months for oil change really bugs me. Of course oil change itself is quick and cheap, but it’s the time I have to spend.

EDIT: I should've clarified that I don't spend a WHOLE Sat for a car oil change. But for a 30min work on the car, you have to go there, wait to drop off car, listen to dealership clerk going on and on about expensive 'preventive' repair I should get (any my family friend mechanic tells me none needed), wait a few hours (because of other customers at same dealership), and get a ride back dealership to pick up the car. That's like 2-5hrs.

As for going to non-dealer mechanic, well it is hard to find a good mechanic you can really trust. And such mechanics are usually booked.

On my very 1st car last oil change, I got an oil change at a shop I hadn't gone to before, for lack of time. Later I learned the mechanic had jammed the cap to the bottom of the motor oil tank at an odd angle and had just jammed it on, destroying the thread on the tank. One more oil change and it would've meant having to replace the motor oil tank.

[aroch]

Oil changes take 20mins, I'm not sure how that equates to a whole Saturday. Hell, you could do it on your way home from work. Or if you find a nicer shop (ie. a local, nonchain shop), they'll even let you drop it off in the morning, drive you to work and then pick you up from work to get your car in the evening.

Unless you make many hundreds of dollars an hour, the opportunity cost of 60mins (there + back plus change time) is rather low

[smm2000]

I used to change oil at a mechanic located next to Safeway parking lot. Almost always oil change took less time than shopping for weekly supply of groceries.

Now my employer has mechanic working out of work parking lot bi-weekly - I just leave car with him in the morning and pick it up in the evening. It's even more convenient and slightly cheaper.

[larrys]

"you have to go there, wait to drop off car, listen to dealership clerk going on and on about expensive 'preventive' repair I should get (any my family friend mechanic tells me none needed), wait a few hours (because of other customers at same dealership), and get a ride back dealership to pick up the car. That's like 2-5hrs."

What kind of car do you drive now?

At the cost of a Tesla you can buy a BMW (for less actually) and get a loaner and none of the up sell.

Because there isn't any up sell when they are covering all the maintenance including even windshield wipers. And definitely oil changes. And brakes.

So don't compare the experience of buying a luxury car to one where you have to sit and wait and deal with what you are referring to. And get shuttled back and forth.

Afaik last I checked mini dealers (owned by BMW) also offer loaners and cover all service programs.

[ankzap]

You should explore alternatives to where you get your oil change done. An oil change shouldn't take more than 15-30 minutes at a good local mechanic.

[samstave]

How does battery replacement work when you're supposedly pulling up to a station and a robot is installing a new batt to the underbelly of the car?

Shouldn't all batteries be "Netflix for tesla batteries" whereby you simply rent them?

[outworlder]

Don't forget Tesla's guaranteed resale value.

[aresant]

Which is:

"Tesla’s Resale Value Guarantee allows owners to sell their Model S back to Tesla between the end of months 36 and 39, regardless of the loan’s term. The resale amount is specified at the time of delivery and is forecasted to be higher than any high volume premium sedan brand (Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Jaguar or Lexus). This value is equal to 50% of the original base purchase price of the 60 kWh Model S plus 43% of the original purchase price for all of the options, including the upgrade to the 85 kWh battery pack (exclusive of taxes, fees, and accessories)."

More here http://www.teslamotors.com/financing/faq