[pbreit]

"After 5 years/70k miles, the battery will probably still be at 95% capacity"

No way. I'd say you have 75% tops (probably less with 70k miles). And unless you pre-buy a new battery you're going to be looking at a $20-30k replacement cost. Also note that it will likely be out of warranty at that point. And that Tesla values them at roughly $1 per mile (the price they give you for purchasing a loaner).

[timdorr]

The battery replacement cost is $12k for an 85kWh: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/2013-model-s-price-increase

And the retention is closer to 85% at 100k miles: http://www.plugincars.com/tesla-roadster-battery-life-study-... (Keep in mind, the Roadster has a previous generation of battery pack technology)

[pbreit]

As I noted, that's the pre-pay cost.

And Tesla itself would disagree as it has stated 70% after 7 years/100k miles.

I'd be careful to compare with the Roadster either way.

[NickM]

Tesla itself would disagree as it has stated 70% after 7 years/100k miles.

Citation? I've never heard of Tesla claiming anything close to that.

[pbreit]

From Tesla S-1: "We currently expect that the Tesla Roadster battery pack will retain approximately 60-65% of its ability to hold its initial charge after approximately 100,000 miles or seven years"

Any citations for whatever you've heard.

[makomk]

That's $12k now in order to get a replacement battery in 8 years time, it'd presumably be more if you paid at the time, and it's not clear they're even offering the scheme - that post just says they will "in the near future".

[epistasis]

I always wonder where these super-confident statements come from that seem to be contrary to reality.

How do you know? Why are you so certain? Where do you pull these numbers from?

It seems like a surefire recipe to ruin one's credibility.

[pbreit]

I was quoting Tesla.