[petilon]

Details here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-draft-us-d...

Key bullets:

What Iran gets:

* The U.S. agrees to release $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines.

* Washington, in coordination with its regional allies, would prepare a reconstruction and development plan for Iran, to be negotiated and agreed with Tehran within 60 days.

What the US gets:

* Tehran agrees that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons.

* Pending a final agreement, Iran would maintain the current status of its nuclear programme, refraining from further uranium enrichment and expansion of nuclear facilities.

* The United States agrees to allow Iran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium on Iranian soil under a future comprehensive agreement.

* Iran’s nuclear programme, uranium enrichment activities and mechanisms for handling its stockpile of highly enriched uranium would be negotiated within 60 days of the memorandum and addressed in a final agreement.

[bhouston]

This is nothing significantly different from the Obama P5+1:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal

[mostafah]

> Tehran agrees that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons.

Of course they do. They have always said they don’t want nuclear weapons while pursuing them relentlessly.

> Iran’s nuclear programme, uranium enrichment activities and mechanisms for handling its stockpile of highly enriched uranium would be negotiated within 60 days of the memorandum and addressed in a final agreement.

If that is still to be discussed, then what have they been discussing so far? That has always been the main issue.

[analognoise]

Our own intelligence agencies said they were not making nuclear weapons.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/americas-spies-say-ira... https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-intel-community-agreed-b...

[spwa4]

> If that is still to be discussed, then what have they been discussing so far? That has always been the main issue.

If the agreement means Iran seriously agrees to dilute (which boils down to destroying) it's nuclear stockpile, with UN or US or ... witnesses, that's pretty damn new.

[petilon]

Iran hasn't agreed to that. United States agrees to allow Iran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium on Iranian soil under a future comprehensive agreement.

[spwa4]

Jep, it's not exactly a clear agreement. I agree.

[ep103]

Trump released Iran's frozen assets, in return for them opening the straight and thereby dropping oil prices before the midterm elections.

Reminder, the reason Trump hated the Obama deal was because he construed it as paying Iran not to develop nuclear weapons. Obama was paying Iran with the money from Iran's frozen assets. Trump's deal gives them that money, and has no nuclear agreement.

[cosmicgadget]

He didn't hate the Obama deal, he hated Obama therefore everything he does has to be criticized and torn down. If that deal had Iran paying the US, Trump would have said the color of the money was no good. And his supporters would eat it up.

[petilon]

Rising inflation at home forced Trump's hand.

[HeavyStorm]

No, invading Iran without a proper plan or goal forced his hand. This was a strategic mistake from Day 1.

[comrade1234]

Also, the u.s. makes Israel stop destroying Lebanon. Trump is already pressing Israel on this. Iran will come across as Lebanon's saviors.

[smt88]

Trump hasn’t (so far) demonstrated the ability to stop Israel from bombing and invading Lebanon, so I’m not sure what we can hope will change before Netanyahu leaves office.

[wolvoleo]

So basically the Obama agreement that Trump trashed. Only now people had to die to get to this point.

[kennywinker]

…plus iran gets $300bn in reconstruction money

[bilalq]

This completely ignores the shareholder value to the military industrial complex and the truth machine value of prediction markets from the not-insider traders.

[tejohnso]

Also...

The US' limitations in its ability to project power have been exposed. Having American bases in the middle east has been shown to be nothing but a liability for host countries. And Iran has proven that it can withstand anything the US is willing to throw at it, and hit back hard, over a relatively prolonged period.

And Iran has shown that its constitution is strong and power succession is effective even after a massive decapitation strike. There was seemingly zero turmoil, control appears to have been maintained without issue.

And Iran's non nuclear option of controlling the strait has been tested andd shown to be highly effective.

And Iran has gained significant operational experience with its massive stores of drones and missles.

And the US has lost multiple billion dollar intelligence installations in the region.

And Americans have been made aware of the Israel lobby like never before, and Trump is in a very difficult position heading into the midterms.

[drnick1]

> And Iran has proven that it can withstand anything the US is willing to throw at it, and hit back hard, over a relatively prolonged period.

Absolutely not. But Trump made two huge mistakes: 1) not imposing the naval blockade from the very start, 2) stopping the military offensive after only roughly a month, when about 50% of the Iranian missile stockpile was still intact. We must resume combat operations, bomb Iran until they are unable to fire back, and use their frozen funds to pay for damages to neighboring countries. It is absurd to offer Iran sanctions relief or "reparations," and makes Trump look incredibly weak.

Other things should also be done in parallel, such as actively hunting down and sinking Iran's "shadow fleet" of vessels that evade sanctions.

[mandeepj]

> And Iran has proven that it can withstand anything the US is willing to throw at it

Also, the idiot in the WH, single handedly turned Iran's many anti-regime citizens to pro-regime and patriotic.

[bhouston]

From who? Trump can not even get the $10B he said would go to Gaza?

[Barrin92]

idk about 300 billion, but the Gulf States have already, and rather silently, unfrozen north of 10 billion in assets (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/12/uae-to-unlock-froze...)

which is of course the real kicker, The Gulf states are going to pay for the adventure and deal with an emboldened Iran and their damaged economies and infrastructure. Having US bases in the region has turned from a security guarantee into a disaster, the implications of this are pretty obvious.

[kennywinker]

“US and allies” apparently

[glimshe]

Obama's agreement didn't stop enrichment, leading to the current crisis.

[wolvoleo]

It did to weapons grade. It only permitted enrichment for energy purposes. And was validated by inspections.

The current crisis is entirely because Trump trashed that agreement in the first place.

[hagbard_c]

...and then you woke up and realised that Iran never allowed those inspectors to inspect the actually important facilities and started removing inspectors from the country in 2023 under Biden.

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/iaea-director-...

[acdha]

Biden was elected _after_ Trump broke the deal so it's unclear why you think that tells us anything about what would have happened had the United States honored the treaty.

[defrost]

Chronologically wrong.

During the time of JCPOA (original, between Iran and the P5+1) inspectors had access to where they wanted to go (sometimes with friction, sure) and were able to place tamper resistant / tamper revealing instrumentation, air filters, and spectrometers - effectively creating a data record that could place a stochastic cap on {enrichment level, volume}.

After Trump ripped up that agreement during his first term, withdrawing from the pact in 2018, that was no longer the case - leading to your linked 2023 statement.

[drnick1]

The JCPOA was a huge mistake. Even assuming that it truthfully capped enrichment and prevented the development of an atomic bomb, at the same time it enriched the nation and therefore allowed continued, among others, financing of terrorist activities and ballistic missiles.

[tristanj]

The crisis exists because Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. That's the root issue.

JCPOA was never a permanent solution. Under JCPOA, Iran agreed to temporarily cap enrichment for 15 years until 2030. After which, Iran could enrich freely.

JCPOA had no extension framework, the deal could not be extended without being renegotiated. And Iranian officials refused to agree to permanent enrichment caps, they said the 15-year sunset on enrichment was a non-negotiable.

[blactuary]

The experience of the last 10 years with these dingbats in charge is an incentive for every country to pursue their own nukes

[throaway23663]

So you're saying all of this shit is a because we could not renegotiate a deal... which is to end in 2030? As if there was no more time to wait?

[hypeatei]

> The crisis exists because Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons

According to whom? I know there's one country who says Iran is two weeks away from nuclear weapons, but who else?

[tristanj]

According to Ali Motahari, a former member of the parliament of Iran. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Motahari

Former Iranian Majles member Ali Motahari said in an April 24, 2022 interview on ISCA News (Iran) that when Iran began developing its nuclear program, the goal was to build a nuclear bomb. He said that there is no need to beat around the bush, and that the bomb would have been used as a "means of intimidation" in accordance with a Quranic verse about striking "fear in the hearts of the enemies of Allah."

"When we began our nuclear activity, our goal was indeed to build a bomb,” former Iranian politician Ali Motahari told ISCA News. “There is no need to beat around the bush,” he said.

When asked if saying this publicly will negatively affect the ongoing JCPOA negotiations, Motahari answered: "Nobody notices what I am saying."

https://www.memri.org/tv/former-iranian-majles-member-motaha...

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202204245312

[comrade1234]

It did though? Trump pulled out of the deal in his first term and then Iran enriched from 3%.

[tristanj]

JCPOA only had temporary enrichment limits, which would end in 2030, after which Iran could enrich freely. It did not permanently stop enrichment.

If JCPOA was followed by both Iran and the US to the letter, we would face a similar crisis to the one seen today, except around 2031-2035.

[defrost]

Unless agreements are renegotiated and extended, of course.

What matters is ongoing engagement and monitoring, it's a far more tractable position than standoffs with zero knowledge or interaction.

[tristanj]

The core reason those sunset dates exist is because Iranian officials stated that a sunset on enrichment limits was a non-negotiable. They would not sign a deal without them.

Claiming "agreements are renegotiated and extended" is hypothetical. What incentive does Iran have to agree to enrichment caps post-2030? Why would Iran give up its strongest negotiating card, its nuclear program?

[insane_dreamer]

So basically, what we had before Trump started this stupid war at Bibi's behest.

[mcphage]

Well, except for the tens of billions we spent, and the $324 billion we’re giving Iran, and also our ability to exert any force on the world.