[tristanj]

The crisis exists because Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. That's the root issue.

JCPOA was never a permanent solution. Under JCPOA, Iran agreed to temporarily cap enrichment for 15 years until 2030. After which, Iran could enrich freely.

JCPOA had no extension framework, the deal could not be extended without being renegotiated. And Iranian officials refused to agree to permanent enrichment caps, they said the 15-year sunset on enrichment was a non-negotiable.

[kelnos]

> The crisis exists because Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons.

The US's own intelligence agencies said they weren't, though.

[blactuary]

The experience of the last 10 years with these dingbats in charge is an incentive for every country to pursue their own nukes

[throaway23663]

So you're saying all of this shit is a because we could not renegotiate a deal... which is to end in 2030? As if there was no more time to wait?

[hypeatei]

> The crisis exists because Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons

According to whom? I know there's one country who says Iran is two weeks away from nuclear weapons, but who else?

[tristanj]

According to Ali Motahari, a former member of the parliament of Iran. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Motahari

Former Iranian Majles member Ali Motahari said in an April 24, 2022 interview on ISCA News (Iran) that when Iran began developing its nuclear program, the goal was to build a nuclear bomb. He said that there is no need to beat around the bush, and that the bomb would have been used as a "means of intimidation" in accordance with a Quranic verse about striking "fear in the hearts of the enemies of Allah."

"When we began our nuclear activity, our goal was indeed to build a bomb,” former Iranian politician Ali Motahari told ISCA News. “There is no need to beat around the bush,” he said.

When asked if saying this publicly will negatively affect the ongoing JCPOA negotiations, Motahari answered: "Nobody notices what I am saying."

https://www.memri.org/tv/former-iranian-majles-member-motaha...

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202204245312

[hypeatei]

> a former member of the parliament of Iran

He wasn't a member at the time of those statements nor did he have any involvement in their nuclear program. That's misleading to say the least.

Ali Motahari—former member of Iran’s Parliament—clarified that the interview dates back to May 2022, when he neither held a parliamentary seat nor any official role in nuclear affairs.[0]

So besides a single guy in Iran, are there official delegations that have concluded Iran was developing nuclear weapons? The US has had two National Intelligence Estimates, which consists of all 18 agencies in the intelligence community, conclude that they were not developing nukes.

0: https://wanaen.com/trump-shares-old-ali-motahari-interview-o...

[tristanj]

> "conclude that they were not developing nukes."

You're misreading your own sources. The 2007 NIE and Gabbard's 2025 testimony both describe a nuclear weapons program that Iran "suspended in 2003". They confirm a nuclear weapons program existed, the opposite of what you're claiming.

And you want an official source: the IAEA concluded in May 2025 that Iran ran an "undeclared structured nuclear program" until the early 2000s using undeclared material. Then it found Iran in formal non-compliance in June of last year.

"Not building a warhead today" and "never pursued weapons" are different claims, and you swapped one for the other.

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/iaea-director-gen...

[hypeatei]

I never swapped claims. We're talking about nuclear weapons and why the US started a war with Iran this year due to this supposed "crisis" (in your words) but there's no evidence that a threat is imminent. The NIEs were just one data point against your claim; the burden is still on you to show who else agrees with the assesment that this is a crisis.

> IAEA concluded in May 2025 that Iran ran an "undeclared structured nuclear program" until the early 2000s

"nuclear program" is not the same as a weapons program and the IAEA sounding alarm bells over policy violations is not a conclusion that Iran is/was on a nuclear warpath.

[tristanj]

Name the civilian use for Iran's 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium. There isn't one. No power reactor uses it (those run on 3-5%), no research reactor needs it (~20% max), and it sits 98-99% of the way enriched weapons-grade. Iran has enough fissile material for multiple bombs with under two weeks of further enrichment. There is no civilian use for this material. Iran enriched this material, under a mountain, in violation of IAEA requirements, at a site it hid from IAEA investigators until it got caught lying, while stonewalling compliance investigators for years.

Even your own source, the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment report, states: "Iran's enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons."

What's your justification for Iran producing this material, if not for a nuclear weapons program?

[defrost]

For unrelated reasons I personally don't believe Iran was ever pursuing a nuclear weapon, just edging enrichment for leverage.

That said, this:

  The US has had two National Intelligence Estimates, which consists of all 18 agencies in the intelligence community, conclude that they were not developing nukes.

has little weight given these were / are the same US intell agencies that were blindsided and caught pants down unaware and in the dark about the 1998 India / Pakistan nuclear test exchange.

[throaway23663]

> MEMRI was co-founded by Israeli ex-intelligence officer Yigal Carmon and Israeli-American political scientist Meyrav Wurmser in 1998.

Well that's convenient, isn't it.

[tristanj]

You're trying hard to discredit this, but that fails here. The interview in question was conduced by ISCA News, an Iranian state-run media agency.