[snovymgodym]

I'm not convinced Microsoft cares about the Windows market share in consumer PCs or the small amount of money they make from selling Windows licenses to regular consumers.

If they did, Windows wouldn't be so usable unactivated and the MassGravel activation stuff would have been patched already.

They built up their almost-monopoly when it mattered in the 90s and the 2000s, and now their market position is basically secured.

For Microsoft's purposes the main way of making money from Windows is from business and enterprise sales, and those sales will exist pretty much indefinitely.

[somenameforme]

The reason they don't meaningfully enforce their copyright on consumer PCs is precisely because they do care about their market share. If you buy a computer with Windows (or get it installed) in what I suspect is the overwhelming majority of the world, it's an 'illegitimate' copy and it works 100% fine, including operating with Microsoft's servers.

As you mentioned, they could trivially stop this if they wanted to, but they don't. Because if this were not possible, there'd be billions of more PCs out there running instead what would most likely be Linux. Enabling people to use Windows without paying is a key component of their strategy of maintaining market dominance, especially on a global level.

[keyringlight]

I think the biggest 'threat' to windows for general users has been mobile, besides that it seems like it's mostly running on momentum from the ecosystem of decades ago. The challenge is that most migrations for established users of any system take effort, and right now the effort of running activation/account requirement bypasses is low effort compared to changing to and learning a new OS.

The way of framing it which works for me is that there doesn't seem to be much reason to move to windows, if you were starting computing with a blank slate and could pick anything, why would someone want to pick windows? Most people need a mobile anyway which serves a lot of consumer needs. Gaming is a big one if you're not happy with mobile/console, but there's the wine/proton on linux route although there's a subset that won't work or has compatibility issues (from minor paper-cuts to major). And then there's those that need specific windows-only software with no alternative elsewhere.

[baq]

Also note this strategy is in its fourth (or fifth?) decade and is also very successfully deployed by adobe et al. It’s also why Linux won on the headless server, though why FreeBSD didn’t I’m not sure; GPL marketing at the right time, perhaps.

[overfeed]

> though why FreeBSD didn’t I’m not sure

The same reason why Ubuntu won the server market (for a while): by capturing the home-desktop/laptop market first, and then worming its way to employer environments by way of familiarity. Linux had broader driver coverage for consumer hardware; there was a time when running *BSD on fragmented consumer hardware was a crapshot.

[Gud]

Linux was already dominant long before Ubuntu.

the answer is because of the AT&T lawsuit against university of California in the 90s that dragged and tainted the BSD code base.

[overfeed]

I said Linux won for the same reason as Ubuntu (winning the distro wars), I did not say Linux won because of Ubuntu. Ubuntu:Linux Distros::Linux:server OSes

[newswangerd]

The funny thing is that I would be totally willing to pay for a license if in exchange for no ads and no needing a Microsoft account.

[breakingcups]

You can! Windows 11 Enterprise.

[Krssst]

Where can a license be bought? When I tried on a legitimate site I got denied for not being a company.

[hattmall]

>those sales will exist pretty much indefinitely.

To an extent sure, but when people that grew up as home consumers not using Windows become business leaders they won't have the brand loyalty to Microsoft that the current aging out generation does.

If Google doesn't characteristically fumble the bag their dominance with ChromeOS in schools has potential pay major dividends in 10-15 years.

Windows centric software development is pretty much completely driven by business leaders 50+ years old on the young end.

[snovymgodym]

A striking amount of business software runs on Windows because Microsoft was dominant during the peak PC era (e.g. 1990-2010). The companies running that stuff aren't doing so because old guys think Windows is good, they're running it because it's been built already and there's no real reason to change.

The next generation of business leaders already didn't build their companies on Windows or any other PC operating system because web apps replaced desktop apps and mobile devices overtook PCs in market share.

But it doesn't really matter to Microsoft. Microsoft isn't really the "Windows Company" anymore and hasn't been for some time. Azure, Office365, Sharepoint, etc. revenue dwarfs what Windows brings in and wouldn't be affected by Windows losing market share because everything is a web/electron client for a cloud service now.

In some ways, I suspect Microsoft views the Windows market share as more of a liability than an asset these days, because it makes them responsible for bad press events like BlueKeep and WannaCry. Business customers frequently buy support contracts with their licenses, whereas private consumers expect indefinite updates for a one time $120 fee. Given that, I wouldn't be surprised if they were intentionally letting consumer Windows slowly fade away.

[cm2187]

Hum, how much of the success of azure is due to enterprise customers being in the windows ecosystem already? And what happens when the next enterprises are not?

[onraglanroad]

Around 60% of Azure VMs are Linux. Between that and WSL it sometimes seems like Microsoft is putting more effort into being a Linux company than a Windows one.

Who could have predicted that back in the Slashdot days!

[unethical_ban]

They're putting effort into being a cloud corporate software provider.

Entra, outlook365, and cloud hosted solutions. VMs in the cloud are niche.

[kryogen1c]

>outlook365

You probably meant office365, but it's been renamed to Microsoft365 :)

[binary132]

What percentage of new computers are sold running windows again? I suspect the reports of their demise have been greatly exaggerated.

[Telaneo]

Macs were at a bit over 10% market share in q4 2024[1], but it's also worth noting that the PC market is shrinking as a whole. Windows still has most of the pie, but the pie itself is getting smaller, since many find phones to be a better (and cheaper) experience than Windows, and I can't say that I blame them.

I'm curious how inflated the numbers are from business sales, since the default option there is still Windows, even if you don't actually use any software that needs it (i.e. you just need a web browser). Consumer sales of PCs is probably only going to trend downwards, and it only got a small spike from people buying PCs for COVID.

[1] https://9to5mac.com/2025/02/26/mac-market-share-growing-fast...

[pixl97]

>many find phones to be a better (and cheaper) experience than Windows, and I can't say that I blame them.

With that said at least using native apps on phones is becoming more and more of a risk. If you can get away with a browser that's fine. But if you need native phone features you are at the risk of Apple/Google cutting off your entire business for some hidden reason and nearly zero recourse. On that note people have been getting more worried about Apple starting to treat their desktop OS like a phone and locking it down more.

[Telaneo]

The risk of that happening, while real and problematic, is not a real concern for most people, as the liklyhood of anything happening is really low. Same goes for the OS being more closed of. The normies, to out it that way, are happy with the normal app store experience and won't notice the difference before and after a complete lockdown, since they've never gone outside the normal bounds to begin with.

[pjmlp]

Even OEMs that have the option to select Linux, e.g. Dell, Lenovo, have "works best with Windows" all over the place, one needs to be rather persistent to track down the Linux as pre-installed OS options.

[lenkite]

> If Google doesn't characteristically fumble the bag their dominance with ChromeOS in schools has potential pay major dividends in 10-15 years.

There will be no ChromeOS anymore - just Android - and it will soon be locked down hard so that you need to pay Google or host ads/harvest data for every app.

You just need to make your choice of Tyrant landlord.

[makeitdouble]

The crucial part: these business leaders won't see the ugly consumer side.

Enterprise windows is completely different, in that most of the crap we complain about will either be disable at the MDM level, or from the start depending on the license. A CEO being issued a windows laptop isn't barraged with ads, nor do they care if their account is local or not. It will "just work".

[bigmattystyles]

I don’t know, I work for a massive (benevolent of course) corporation and it’s still pushy with Lock Screen ads, copilot, etc… and it definitely doesn’t just work. Maybe for the CEO it does though…

[makeitdouble]

It might depend on how much your IT departements cares about customizing your setups. The efforts described in TFA for instance don't cover auto install scripts which are still free to create whatever local account is needed, provided it's done through the fleet management mechanisms.

Much of the scripts to "debloat" windows also rely on MDM entry points and overriding user preferences with higher privilege.

[mlrtime]

I remember in the early win7 days when I built computers there were many powertools to debloat the install, I had fun running them.

Doesn't this exist today for W11 that makes most of the complaints mute? Or is MS getting better at the cat/mouse game?

[makeitdouble]

They still exist, like Win11Debloat.

As you point out it's still a cat and mouse game but I assume they work OK. I tend to go the painful way and do most of it myself following instructions, as I'm not comfortable having these tools run as admin on a system. It's not that bad either.

[alsetmusic]

> Lock Screen ads, copilot

We have a mandate on-high to block this crap at the MDM level. It's more about your company than the biz world overall, I think.

[pjmlp]

That is mostly a thing on US school system.

[SoftTalker]

Do we believe that we’ll be using anything like today’s PCs and operating systems in 10-15 years time? I mean, that’s been the case since the 1980s, but now we have usable (if imperfect) AI.

[dmantis]

Two reasons why so at least professionaly:

- Reliability. For anything that needs deterministic result and not even 99.9% of chance that it's generated correctly and not hallucinated. E.g. health, finance, military, etc. There is no room for "you're absolutely right". For the same input an algo must give the same output.

- Privacy. Until we have powerful local models (we might have though in 10 years, I don't know), sending everything to some cloud companies, which are already obliged by court to save data and have spy and ex-military generals in their boardrooms, sounds a bit crazy if it's not about an apple pie recipe. Web chat interface isolates important data from non-important, but we can't integrate it fully in our lifes.

[setopt]

Personally: Yes, I do. Likely, voice assistants and other AI tools will have a bigger market share in a decade, sure. But I doubt an interface like Alexa can replace a PC-like setup for most of the «real work». Instead, I imagine we’ll just continue the trend of laptops and tablets with AI assistants integrated in better ways, and perhaps a wider adoption of AR/VR in some sectors. Tre The tech that could replace today’s PC setup is a neural interface, but I doubt that NeuraLink et al will be anywhere near mainstream in a decade.

[toast0]

> But I doubt an interface like Alexa can replace a PC-like setup for most of the «real work».

Most people, and most workers simply don't do what you call real work that needs a big screen and a keyboard. I think most of the kids at my child's school don't have a computer at home (other than the district issued chromebook) and likely won't ever own a personal computer.

People do everything on their phones. Google recently said Chrome OS is going to end next year... I don't know what schools are going to do.

[setopt]

I don’t doubt that a conventional laptop or desktop will be far less common in a decade.

But both iPads and Android tablets have keyboard cases. Even many phones can these days be plugged into USB-C docking stations that enable the use of a big screen and keyboard when needed. I agree that most non-programmers will probably end up using phones or tablets with an external keyboard, and even for programming it is kinda usable.

Those schools will probably just switch to Android netbooks or Android tablets with keyboard cases.

Still, I think that’s very different from AI technologies killing the PC form factor. The hardware and software might change, but I personally think the «screen and keyboard» form factor will remain the default for «work» for the next decade.

[SoftTalker]

> I personally think the «screen and keyboard» form factor will remain the default for «work» for the next decade.

I'm not so sure. What was the interface pre-computer: voice and secretaries. Except the secretaries are now AI, and there is an unlimited supply of them and they don't need a salary or health insurance. Instead of "Ms. Wilson, come here and take a letter" it would be "Hey Google, take a letter"

We're already well on the way. Writing emails with AI is done today. Using AI to take notes in a meeting is possible today. OCR and cameras can handle a lot of "transcribe this printed form to that online form" input tasks today. And it will all be vastly better in 10 years.

I'm sure there will still be a place for screens. We are visually oriented and using paper would be wasteful. I'm not sure the screen + keyboard "workstation" of today will be common in 10 years.

I think mobile tech will be closer to a Star Trek TNG commnicator. A small device perhaps worn as jewelry with an earpiece and some kind of retinal projector for heads-up usage, and less like a rectangular slab of glass in your pocket. Current smart watches are a start, they only need a better way to show more information and they would replace phones for many people.

And of course this all presumes that "office work" as we know it is even a thing. If AI becomes AGI or close to it, what would we need people in offices to even do?

[bluescrn]

How will we interact with this AI?

Talking to machines is a horrible experience, especially if you’ve got loads of people all trying to do it in an open-plan office.

Operating systems and CPUs may come and go, but there’s plenty of life left in the mouse and keyboard yet.

[onraglanroad]

Call centres manage it; they use headsets.

Alternatively it could be people working from home.

Though, with the state of "prompt engineering", I'm now imagining legions wandering down the street, speaking into Bluetooth headsets, desperately entreating an AI to do the task they've been assigned...

(you get better results if you sound like you're about to cry)

[pixl97]

>Call centres manage it; they use headsets.

Eh, what? No, they use headsets to talk to the customer and type on a keyboard.

Worse it's always great when you can hear background noise.

[onraglanroad]

Do you think the constant use of "great" sarcastically will end up with reversing its meaning so people think it just means "terrible"?

Words do that sometimes; it's interesting to see it happen.

[SoftTalker]

Call centers won't exist in 10 years. It will all be AI agents.

[getnormality]

If something displaces Windows in the consumer PC market, I wonder how long it is before those new OS consumers start to want to use what they're comfortable with in the business as well. Windows will start to feel like some weird legacy system. By the time business starts moving away, it will be too late for Microsoft to save.

[morkalork]

This already sort of happened with kids using chrome books and android phones getting their first office job and having no clue about windows.

[Root_Denied]

I think you're right that they don't care about the money from Windows licenses, but they seem to be pivoting to trying to pull data from consumer desktops for AI training. That's arguably way more valuable and no one besides Apple (or potentially Google) gets that kind of data.

As more and more public accessible areas start becoming so inundated with AI generated material, that makes the walled gardens where generated content is not AI generated that much more valuable for training.

[ChrisArchitect]

Whether they care about consumer market or not, they know that most of the consumers aren't going to care about this problem. Hardly anyone would bat an eye at using their already existing Microsoft account/email address and internet connection to log on to their PC. They're almost 100% headed to get on the internet to do whatever anyways. These people are connected to the cloud 24/7. In the same way hardly any Apple user cares that they need an Apple account to get into a bunch of things/phone/whatever. This is a nerd/tech-niche problem.

[Woodi]

> For Microsoft's purposes the main way of making money from Windows is from business and enterprise sales, and those sales will exist pretty much indefinitely.

Yes, and making corporations and smaller businesses donate their stuff via official spyware os, clouded "services" and "agents" is perfect opportunity for spyware creator :) It is hard to blame them for wanting this :) Except that, probably, will explode in their faces...

[axus]

Small businesses don't like creating Microsoft accounts either. Limit 30 software activations per email address or something like that. And retail Office stops working after 365 days offline.

[willis936]

"How did Microsoft go bankrupt?"

Two ways: slowly then all at once.