[lgleason]

Boring lineup, Lack of recent innovation, poor repairability and a CEO who has alienated people on both sides of the political isle. The 1 trillion dollar package the board is offering Musk is a joke. They need to find a new CEO.

[aurareturn]

  The 1 trillion dollar package the board is offering Musk is a joke. They need to find a new CEO.

It's an attempt to rally the stock. It's tied to a $8.6 trillion valuation. It's basically a stunt for the public.

Problem for Tesla is that Musk is the reason it has a 200 P/E ratio (and increasing at that). Without Musk, they are likely to go all the way down to a 15 P/E or less ratio in my opinion because they're decreasing in growth. That'd make them go from being worth $1 trillion today to just $75 billion instantly.

I don't own TSLA but it could crash the market if it drops that low.

[ModernMech]

> Problem for Tesla is that Musk is the reason it has a 200 P/E ratio (and increasing at that).

The reason for the ratio is because he overpromises and lies all the time. The valuation is now hinging on Tesla being a leader in robotics when Musk doesn't even understand what sensor fusion is. But Tesla's astronomical valuation is a liability for them because it's the result of Musk defrauding both Tesla's customers and investors. The big number looks great but it's based on a fantasy.

[thunky]

> I don't own TSLA but it could crash the market if it drops that low.

TSLA is about 2% of the s&p. If they crash I think the market will shrug that off easily. Tesla's (lack of) success is not tied to the health of the larger market, and everyone knows they are overvalued so there would be no surprise factor either.

[aurareturn]

It's not about how much of it is the S&P. It's about sentiment.

[LeFantome]

I agree with that but I also agree that everybody knows they are overvalued. A Tesla crash is unlikely to spook the market that much.

[aurareturn]

The mother of all meme stocks collapsing would trigger people to exit all very risky equities.

[hashstring]

I doubt it.

[anon191928]

PE is no longer relevant to these type of stocks. Because they print like crazy. This is not 1980 or 2001.

[raldi]

They were coasting for a while on false promises of self-driving abilities by "the end of this year" every year and consumers have finally caught on that Tesla's not trustworthy about such claims.

[dawnerd]

And their recent updates have made basic autopilot frustrating to use. Their reliance on only camera and map data is really showing how much Elon actually knows about self driving reliability.

Heck, the backup cross traffic detection only alerts when a car or pedestrian is already crossed and out of view. It’s absurdly bad.

[jbm]

I've generally advocated ignoring Musk, but it's impossible to defend him in good faith as a reasonable figurehead for a multinational company. His X page in particular portrays a man who cares deeply about 4chan/pol politics and very little about his car company.

If he cared at all, you'd see a better repair process with them. There is a Tesla repair hub in Calgary where I live, and I had to wait 5 weeks for them to see my car (including an un-explained situation where they bumped me, despite me being concerned about a safety issue). I eventually took it to an EV repair shop who did it for half of what Tesla quoted because, FFS, the world's most valuable auto company is "Resource Constrained" with mechanics.

Seriously, how can they afford a trillion on a CEO when they are parking expensive Cybertrucks on the front lawn of their Calgary store?

I still love driving my car (a 2019 Model 3), but I have no faith that Tesla will actually improve on it with their current leadership structure.

[ModernMech]

I think the plan is:

1. Promise investors FSD/AI/robots are coming next year, sell them your stock

2. ???

3. Profit!

The fun thing is you don't have to sell any Cybertrucks as long as people are buying your stock!

[LeFantome]

It is all about the hype cycle. Now that other people can make cars, it is going to have to be all about the robots.

They are hoping Musk can repeat his roadshow magic and drive an insane multiple on the dream.

[nofriend]

Tesla exists to make money. Every car company in the world charges more than independent mechanics for repairs, because that's how you make money.

[AlotOfReading]

Unlike Tesla, legacy OEMs are prohibited from owning dealerships in the US. They make the same (or more) money selling the parts to an independent shop. They only lose out on things like certification / training / diagnostic equipment with third party shops that don't buy everything the way a dealership is required to.

The relationship between dealerships and OEMs is complicated, incestuous and fundamentally adversarial.

[Gud]

Tesla are also prohibited from running OEM dealerships by most states.

That they went with online sales only was an incredibly smart move and they cut out an unwanted middleman. I’ve been following Tesla for a long time. I made a small fortune investing in them in 2012.

The folks at Tesla Motor Club were very happy to buy directly from Tesla.

[spwa4]

Tesla's genius move is just the opposite, it is to oppose online sales of cars through law. Let me explain.

Ever notice how defense of corruption is often described as something being a "genius move" by one company, totally discounting that the same move is illegal for all their competitors. Usually, to mask the open corruption, this is then masked as a detail of some law, or multiple laws. A law which when looked at is really complicated and detailed and "just happens" to target every competitor except one company?

The detail in question is that almost all US states prohibit "direct sales", meaning car manufacturers have to sell through independent dealerships. So technically you can buy a Ford online, just not from Ford, you have to go through a dealership. The exception in a number of states is that you can buy a car from the manufacturer if there are no dealerships ... and Tesla never had any dealerships. The other car manufacturers can't sell online, because their dealerships are independent, and they are legally forced to treat them equally. They'd have to force dealerships into bankruptcy and only then they'd be allowed to sell online. Not the dealerships in a particular state, mind you, all of them, across the entire US.

Of course, other vendors that are in the same position as Tesla, don't get this advantage, for example BYD, but also a number of European and even an Indian automaker that only have dealerships in a very limited number of states, and should, in theory, be allowed to sell cars directly in most states. Well, they're not allowed. Trade deals, tariffs, ... but somehow they can't do it (perhaps this is why Elon Musk joined Trump, if so, it would make Musk and Trump not just corrupt, but incompetent at corruption, given the title of this ycombinator story)

See how the "genius move" of Tesla really works? It is not at all the decision to sell online. The genius move of Tesla is exactly the opposite of what you claim: Tesla opposes online sales of cars, and for this to be enforced legally. Against everyone but Tesla, of course.

Of course, anyone who has gone to a Tesla demonstration knows that there is zero actual difference between a car dealership where you check out a physical car and then order on a computer over the internet with a salesperson assisting, and a Tesla demonstration where you check out a physical car and then order on a computer over the internet with a salesperson assisting.

And, obviously, yes, Musk is still lobbying and has lobbied [1] (ie. paid money to politicians) to keep things this way. Of course, other car manufacturers also lobby. I guess Tesla pays better.

[1] "Tesler, great buy!" Trump https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/elon-musk/trump-musk-tesla-whit...

[jbm]

The price was not the issue, the fact that they took 5 weeks for a potential safety issue was. (In my case, it turns out that the issue was related to a torn bushing in the suspension; a common issue with a Model 3 w/ more than 100k kilometers apparently).

The fact that they took longer AND were more expensive than local providers was ridiculous, and certainly not a good look compared to my experiences at Toyota with my Sienna.

-edit- (That and the fact that they shouldn't be resource constrained when the most valuable car company in the world)

[m463]

the model y update to mimic the cybertruck made me groan.

I think the old model y looks great. It was a success!

But they messed with it and the new one looks like a duck.

in comparison the model 3 update looked ok.

But for me the relentless march to remove controls from the car is the worst.

It started with no dashboard on the model 3, (crowded central display off to side).

But then got worse and worse.

No stalks makes it unbuyable to me. No drive select stalk (it will guess), no turn signal stalks. Critical controls on the touchscreen. Small targets that are hard to hit in a moving car.

It looks minimal in the showroom, but day to day it makes you a worse driver. It is techno poverty.

[duxup]

Can they find a new CEO? Tesla's valuation has been crazy for a while and Musk an his magic has been a part of that ...

Are they faced with picking someone else also admitting Musk's magic is at an end for them and thus at the same time triggering a return to reality?

[tim333]

The 1 trillion dollar package seems to me a bit like trying to pump a meme stock. Saying he'll get 1 T when the stock is 8 T will encourage people to buy in now when it's a bargain at a 1 T market cap.

[randycupertino]

I low key have a conspiracy theory that the "1 trillion dollar pay package" is just Tesla PR fluff - smoke and mirrors to steal attention away from the poorly performing cybertruck sales and falling stock. If they spin news with dramatic flair highlighting Musk’s bonkers pay package it's a distraction from Tesla’s more immediate and tangible troubles, political alienation of their buyers and ongoing regulatory and manufacturing operational crises.

[sethops1]

I think it's a desperate attempt by the board to get Musk to focus on Tesla again. Tesla has a PE ratio of around 230 right now. If that comes back down to the reality of a declining-sales mid-sized car company, it's going to be an absolute blood bath.

[aorloff]

Hiding the cyberflop is much easier than explaining why they have monitors riding in robotaxis while Waymo works

[jjulius]

Seems counterintuitive, no?

The first thing I thought of when I saw that pay package being floated was the current state that Tesla is in. That's the primary reason such a package seems so fucking bonkers.

[tim333]

In fairness Musk only gets the payout if he hits various targets, more related to AI than cars.

[otterley]

A pay package of that magnitude is a material business fact. If Tesla is lying about this, that would likely constitute securities fraud and risks imprisonment for the people involved in making it.

[myvoiceismypass]

I would imagine the current administration has little to no desire to enforce this. There was already an executive order early on to specifically stop enforcing crypto regulation.

[jjulius]

The company that had to pay out $20 million (in addition to Musk paying another $20 million) to settle with the SEC after being accused of securities fraud in 2018, and whose owner has just been accused of another instance of securities fraud by the SEC this year may, in fact, be engaging in securities fraud here?

Well, color me just absolutely shocked.

[api]

Letting go of Musk would let go of the Musk hype and cause the company to be valued like a car company, which would crash the stock.

[pornel]

Value of TSLA has been disconnected from the actual car business for a while, and instead vaguely betting on Musk figuring out something with robots, taxis, or AI or whatever.

Now I wonder if it's tied to any future of the company at all. It seems to be a Musk stock: if you want Musk have more power to do whatever he's doing, pump TSLA.

[Yeul]

There's a reason why in most companies the CEO isn't allowed to put up inane rants on social media.

[ajross]

Nah, they're still the best cars you can buy[1]. It's all down to Musk's political antics.

[1] Seriously, it's hard to be lacking in innovation when other brands still don't even have walk-up unlock or 360° cameras, much less drive themselves around or launch like rockets. And the repairability thing is a meme from back when they had part production lag due to crazy scaling. Getting a Tesla fixed now (and yes, I have) is like "click three buttons in your app and come in tomorrow".

[amluto]

I’ve recently test-driven EVs from a few brands, including Tesla. One stood out for building an EV that actually felt like a functioning car: Kia. It actually has buttons for things that are commonly adjusted while driving. The current crop of Teslas don’t even have physical controls for reverse.

[rsynnott]

> The current crop of Teslas don’t even have physical controls for reverse.

... Wait, seriously? Like, you have to _use the touch screen to put it in reverse_? That can't possibly be the case.

[amluto]

Yes. This has now infected all models.

[Kirby64]

No, it’s not. There are buttons on the roof area (where the interior lights and hazard button are) that have the PRND buttons.

Also, all the new models have an auto shift functionality so you don’t even really have to use any buttons at all.

[amluto]

> Also, all the new models have an auto shift functionality so you don’t even really have to use any buttons at all.

This seems utterly insane. It’s already annoying that tapping somewhere on a phone screen has a different effect depending on whether I win or lose the race against some UI update. I do not want my rather heavy vehicle to move in a different direction depending on which way the computer thinks I want it to move.

[kube-system]

Tesla was not first to market for keyless entry, 360 cameras, nor level 2 ADAS. In fact, they are behind. A couple of automakers are now shipping level 3 ADS systems.

[ajross]

> keyless entry, 360 cameras, nor level 2 ADAS

It's the only non-luxury brand I'm aware of with all of those features. Who are you thinking about?

Also you're misdirecting: "keyless entry" isn't remotely the same as "your phone is your key".

And the "level 2 ADAS" business is a transparent attempt to troll an FSD argument to which won't engage except to say, again, that the user experience of letting your car drive a 200 mile leg of a long road trip is also not remotely the same as always bouncing around and stomping on brakes experience of the lanekeeping offered elsewhere.

You know both of these truths, which is why you want to redefine the features to make them false.

[kube-system]

>> keyless entry, 360 cameras, nor level 2 ADAS

> It's the only non-luxury brand I'm aware of with all of those features. Who are you thinking about?

Most non-luxury brands offer these features today. Toyota Camry, for instance.

> Also you're misdirecting: "keyless entry" isn't remotely the same as "your phone is your key".

1. You didn't say anything about doing it with a phone. 2. If you do want to do it with a phone, for whatever reason, other automakers also offer this, e.g.:

https://connected-mobility.hyundai.com/what-we-do/connected-...

https://www.ford.com/support/how-tos/fordpass/phone-as-a-key...

> And the "level 2 ADAS" business is a transparent attempt to troll an FSD argument to which won't engage except to say, again, that the user experience of letting your car drive a 200 mile leg of a long road trip is also not remotely the same as always bouncing around and stomping on brakes experience of the lanekeeping offered elsewhere.

You shouldn't be taking your hands off the wheel while using systems that require your hands to be on the wheel. Other automakers have hands-free level 2 systems. Here's the list of brands that currently offer a hand-free level 2 system: BMW, Ford, Lincoln, Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Jeep, Ram, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Infiniti, Toyota, Lexus

> You know both of these truths, which is why you want to redefine the features to make them false.

I think maybe you're just not aware of what is on the market right now.

[ajross]

Now you're playing games with "offer". I've never once seen a Camry with cameras. I'm sure it's on a trim somewhere, but not on dealers lots or at a price people want to pay.

Look, the simple ground truth is that the experience of driving a four year old Tesla (the age of my Y) is simply better than any vehicle I'm going to find anywhere at that price point or lower (or give a bit for inflation, even).

> You shouldn't be taking your hands off the wheel while using systems that require your hands to be on the wheel.

Sigh. I said I wouldn't be trolled[1], but it's a camera-based attention monitoring system now. There's no requirement for the hand on the wheel (well, it will yell at you if it sees you duck out of the camera center and you need a physical input to acknowledge), and hasn't been for more than a year.

The "car gets new features years after purchase" thing is another point in favor, FWIW.

Look, you're just wrong on this. You'll never believe that, because you'll never drive a Tesla. But I do, and I'm right.

[1] You also played the "level 2" game again, pretending that one number defines the feature set when you know very well it does not. That now has moved from "trolling" to simple lying, I'd say.

[kube-system]

> Now you're playing games with "offer". I've never once seen a Camry with cameras.

I test drove one last year, it wasn't even the highest trim... A few of my coworkers are driving used cars with 360 cameras. These aren't really new features.

> Look, the simple ground truth is that the experience of driving a four year old Tesla (the age of my Y) is simply better than any vehicle I'm going to find anywhere at that price point or lower (or give a bit for inflation, even).

Yeah, they're not bad cars. I never said they were. I said other auto makers are also shipping some of these features. I'm not attacking your vehicle; you're allowed to like it.

> Sigh. I said I wouldn't be trolled[1], but it's a camera-based attention monitoring system now. There's no requirement for the hand on the wheel (well, it will yell at you if it sees you duck out of the camera center and you need a physical input to acknowledge), and hasn't been for more than a year.

Yes, they updated their system to do this last year. A lot of auto makers have hands-free systems today, many of them already had them shipped last year, and some shipped them years before Tesla did. And while Tesla still requires you to look at the road, a couple of auto makers are shipping level three systems.

I'm not making any sort of personal attack on your purchase. I'm just here to tell you that they're not the only ones shipping these sorts of features.

[alasdair_]

We have a model X and model S. I still like them but for our latest car we bought a Rivian SUV instead. The interior is just laid out better and there is a lot more space despite being roughly the same size as the X.

The Rivian has the 360 degree view and other stuff as well.

And as for the delays - our X was in a minor collision last November and is STILL not fixed. The only way to contact Tesla is through the app and so we make an appointment, take photos, describe the issue and then are told to wait two months for our appointment. Then invariably the day before the appointment, we are told that the center we had the appointment at cannot do the work and to go to another center, with another two month delay, which then tells us the same thing.

Not being able to reach a human to fix out $100k+ car is infuriating.

[metaphor]

> And the repairability thing is a meme from back when they had part production lag due to crazy scaling.

Respectfully, bullshit; auto insurance companies I've dealt with certainly begged to differ, and have priced comprehensive/collision premiums for Teslas accordingly.

[ajross]

My premiums seem fine. Also I don't see why insurance risk management has anything in particular to do with "repairability".

[kube-system]

Insurance premiums for Teslas are well above the national average for insuring a new vehicle. Although, they've gotten better in recent years. The Model S used to be number one most expensive vehicle to insure in the US, even beating out exotic cars.

Repairability is a risk to insurance companies because they are liable to repair vehicle vehicles. When parts and labor are in short supply, they are more expensive. These expenses are something that an insurance company would pay in a claim for a vehicle they are liable to fix. Also, please remember that insurance companies also sometimes must pay consequential costs, e.g. a rental car, while vehicle repair repairs are pending.

[01HNNWZ0MV43FF]

Istg I had a ten year old Prius with walk up unlock

They're terrible for privacy too. Just give me the finished product after the AC button is in and the telemetry is gone

[sleepyguy]

I don't know why you're getting junked. A friend's Model Y was rear-ended, and he had it fixed in less than two weeks. Did have a sensor problem afterwards, but that was taken care of immediately. I think you're accurate that they are still ahead of the competition, but the race is getting closer.