[MichaelMoser123]

The bad news: there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indias-water...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty

Wasn't there something in the intro of "Mad Max fury road" about water wars?

[niemandhier]

This is probably the only real dangerous point at the moment.

Neither side gains to win much from a conflict, but should India really tamper with the water supply I hope they consult their economists first. Otherwise Pakistan has little choice but instantly commit to a full war.

The reason:

A significant amount of the food produced in Pakistan directly depends on the water from the river Indus. Even a moderate water supply reduction would lead to a loss of around 10% of the harvest.

That does not sound like much, BUT economically food is a commodity with low 'elasticity', meaning demand does not really go down with reduced supply. The result would therefore be a doubling of food prices.

In a country where people have little dispensable income, that means wide spread famine.

By all measures India is the more powerful state, but as Ukraine demonstrates: Desperation can make up for a lot of disadvantage.

[int_19h]

> Neither side gains to win much from a conflict,

If you mean people as a whole, sure. But it's not people who decide, it's the governments. And war is a tried and true measure for authoritarians of all stripes to use as an excuse to consolidate their power and rally the public. Because, well, it works - so long as you're on the winning side. But, given the history of Indo-Pak wars, I could see why the Indian government might believe that they'll win any open military confrontation that their actions may provoke.

[roncesvalles]

>Even a moderate water supply reduction would lead to a loss of around 10% of the harvest.

If that's the case then the die is already cast. Early in the conflict, India released too much water on the Chenub too early for the season as a way to punish Pakistan. The quantity of water was such that Pakistan had no choice but to let it run off to the sea. This now means that the upstream Indian reservoir will not have enough water to release during regular season where coordinated releases ensure farmers have an uninterrupted supply during certain critical time periods.

[Tade0]

Ukraine was desperate in 2014, when the Green Men arrived. In 2022 they were already anticipating an invasion, just didn't know when exactly it would occur.

By 2020 they already had Bayraktars and Javelins:

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/ukraine-to-buy-5...

[sdsd]

>By all measures India is the more powerful state, but as Ukraine demonstrates: Desperation can make up for a lot of disadvantage.

The question is whether China would prop up Pakistan like NATO did for Ukraine

[alephnerd]

Overstated. There isn't any long term locking capabilities on most rivers under the IWT.

The only one India is messing with is the Chenab, and only because it messes up Pakistan's Rice and Sugar exports (major forex provider for Pakistan, and the supply chain is heavily owned by Pakistan's MilBus). Kharif sowing season ends in a couple weeks so messing with the Chenab for 3-4 weeks is enough to destroy the rice harvest in Northeast Punjab.

I recommend reading Ayesha Siddiqui's "Military Inc" to understand the Pakistani army (she was forced into exile because of the book), and "Army and Nation" by Steven Wilkinson to understand India's army.

[MichaelMoser123]

I hope you are right, however:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty#Suspension

Following the suspension of the treaty, India significantly reduced the flow of water through the Chenab River, which crosses into Pakistan. Pakistani authorities claimed a 90% drop in water supply and accused India of choking the river’s flow. India also initiated new hydroelectric projects and began constructing dams on the western rivers, actions previously constrained under the treaty.[125][126][127]

Pakistan has reportedly warned that any attempt by India to disrupt the flow of water from shared rivers could be considered an act of war, and would attack India with nuclear weapons.[128]

[dmix]

Just sounds like a good deterrence for Pakistan to not go to war to me. It really is in their hands right now.

India just wants to save face over the terror attacks, a very easy game to play diplomatically. This missile strike was even smaller and more symbolic than even the Israeli Iranian ones. And those two are much more inclined (and far more prepared) to do something stupid.

[mayama]

> Overstated. There isn't any long term locking capabilities on most rivers under the IWT.

India could build water channel, in style of China's South North water transfer project in less than half decade. Huge dams aren't really needed for just diversion, if India is really serious about it.

[JumpCrisscross]

> there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty

Neither side wants peace. But neither side wants to commit military manoeuvre that secures strategic aims. So we get this defence sale wet dream of a forever war instead.

[screye]

India wants peace. A peaceful India threatens Pakistan's entire existence as a military state. Therefore, Pakistan keeps instigating with outrageously cruel terrorist attacks.

There are no strategic goals here. Either side may recover some vantage points high up in the Himalayas. But that's about it.

[hayst4ck]

Israel and Russia also want peace. China wants peace with Taiwan. The US wants peace with Greenland and Canada.

You have to be careful with that word, peace, because all wars are defensive.

[screye]

Israel did want peace with Gaza (Gaza specifically, not West Bank). After the 2005 Gaza disengagement, Israel did a lot to normalize relations with Gaza. They wanted peace until they gave up all attempts to do so, after October 7th.

Peace implies disengagement by maintaining long-standing borders. India wants peace by maintaining Line of Actual Control (LAC). Be it China or Pakistan, India has never been the one to escalate first. When engaging with nations that want peace, India has been able to resolve complex border issues. Eg: Srilanka[1] and Bangladesh [2].

Russia and China do not want peace because they are invading past their effective borders into lands they do not control.

All wars are not defensive. All countries are not the same. Each war is different, and it is fair to impose different judgements on the participants of each war.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katchatheevu

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Bangladesh_encla...

[hayst4ck]

> Peace implies disengagement by maintaining long-standing borders.

Before I write a novel of a response, can you rigorously define "long-standing borders", as well as the implied words of "nation", "country", and "state"? How far back in history is "long standing" valid for? Some of these things are matters of history, how do you deal with historians disagreeing on the ground truth? What happens when someone strongly asserts something that is factually untrue?

All wars are defensive in that the combatants are told they are defending, not attacking. Russians in Ukraine don't think they are attacking, they think they are defending Russia from NATO or de-nazifying Ukraine, or at least that is their national narrative.

Mostly I think your post proved my overall point, which is that peace is not a meaningful word because its meaning is relative to its speakers beliefs rather than in reference to a universalize-able moral framework describing about what justice is.

[SetTheorist]

In what possible sense can you possible mean that "all wars are defensive"?

And it is absurd to claim that Russia wants peace. It can literally have peace anytime it wants by simply pulling its troops out of Ukrainian territory and ceasing the launching of missiles and drones on the populace.

The US threats on Canada and Greenland are not made with "peace" in mind.

[cogman10]

OP's point is warhawks and propaganda can easily weaponize their position as the aggressors as being "peace seeking".

The best example of this is the Iraq war. The US invaded another country and sold it as a peace keeping mission because "They are building weapons of mass destruction!".

In fact, the US has decades of history doing such actions (see: banana republics and the CIA's anti-communism efforts).

[JumpCrisscross]

> In what possible sense can you possible mean that "all wars are defensive"?

I think the argument is all wars can be defensively spun. Russia apologists falling for the imminent-Ukraine-membership lie, MAGAs falling for the idea that we’re defending our Arctic interests by invading Greenland, Hitler’s argument that the Nazis were defending against a jealous Jewry and Europe, et cetera. The justifications for war are always, in part, however flimsily, couched in terms of defence (in modern times).

[ignoramous]

> You have to be careful with that word, peace, because all [offensive] wars are defensive

The jingoists won't ever be ... as Orwell predicted, they'll use Orwellian terms fit for their grandeur and inline with their delusion.

[coryfklein]

I’m sorry, but this is getting really out of hand, we can’t even use the word “peace” now?

[matheusmoreira]

Common street robbers want peace too. They want to rob you of your property as peacefully as possible. They very much want you to just surrender and let it happen.

Violence is usually conditional. It comes with instructions on how to avoid it. Let the criminal take your things and he won't shoot you. Let us take this territory and you won't be killed. If you surrender and submit to our rule, you will have your peace. It's just that the cost is your land, your economy, your freedom, your secuity, your dignity, your pride, your self-determination

The key fact about violence is nobody actually wants it. Everybody wants peace. At the same time, everybody also wants scarce resources that others are unwilling to just hand over to them. So they use the threat of violence to get what they want. Actual violence is risky and all bets are off once it escalates. Without the threat of violence though, why negotiate when you can just take?

So there's a lot of nuance to "peace". India cannot claim to want peace and then suspend a treaty that provides vital water resources to Pakistan. Pakistan cannot claim to want peace and at the same time support insurgency against India. All of these things will obviously escalate the situtation until it erupts into war.

[infecto]

I didn’t read it that way. I read it more that saying India is a peaceful nation is probably not the full truth. As a third party I always had the impression this was one of those tit for tat forever wars. Each attack there is usually an antagonist but over the whole course it’s muddy.

[rfrey]

Every country wants peace, as long as it's on their terms.

[JumpCrisscross]

> India wants peace

Not really. There are options for a negotiated peace that involves swapping land, specifically, ceding Muslim-dominant territory to Pakistan and setting borders along rivers. That's anathema in India because there is broad-based antipathy towards Islamabad, historically, and Muslims, recently.

[screye]

> ceding Muslim-dominant territory to Pakistan

Why would India do that? Why would a unilateral surrender of land be considered valid terms for peace?

> swapping land

In a fair swap, what land would Pakistan offer in exchange?

> Muslims, recently

Pakistan doesn't have a stellar reputation for treatment of its Muslim minorities (Ahmediyyas, Ismailis) and non-Punjabi muslims (Balochis, Pasthuns, once-Pakistani-Bengalis). I'm inclined to consider India a safer nation for most muslim denominations.

____

Note: Pakistan's historic terror attacks have been deep in India soil (Mumbai, Delh). There is no indication that they'd maintain peace with India if they gained control over Kashmir.

[JumpCrisscross]

> Why would a unilateral surrender of land be considered valid terms for peace?

Because you trade it for more than it's worth to you. America gave up the Philippines, for example. Every decolonisation effort could accurately be described as "a unilateral surrender of land."

> what land would Pakistan offer in exchange?

You'd probably need China to participate. Maybe Siachen or even areas of Sindh? It's a long shot. One of the elements would almost certainly be co-ordinated anti-terrorist policing. Maybe guaranteed by China.

> I'm inclined to consider India a safer nation for most muslim denominations

I am, too. But let's be honest, neither side is concerned with the wellbeing of anyone in Kashmir.

[ignoramous]

> decolonisation effort

Kashmiris on the Indian side are citizens (unlike in "colonies"). AFSPA must be phased out but Kashmir isn't the only Indian state that's subject to it.

> neither side is concerned with the wellbeing of anyone in Kashmir

Yeah, the issue is too good to give up for (religion-based) politics and (military-industrial) businesses, on both sides of the border.

Reminds of me this Bollywood movie dialogue: https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/RJAJdYw3ctw

[aprilthird2021]

> I'm inclined to consider India a safer nation for most muslim denominations.

Come on. You can't live in India and think this seriously.

Anyways, the Kashmir issue is contentious but Kashmiris never got to say whether they should be part of India or not, unlike most states and people during partition. I am very aware the full history of the region is murky and that the removal of Kashmiri Pandits from the region led to the current broad swath of support for Kashmiri independence (or becoming a part of Pakistan, either way being separate from India), but the current situation is what it is, and until that is resolved it will continue to be an issue in India.

> Pakistan's historic terror attacks have been deep in India soil

India is said to sponsor Balochistan separatism as well, those groups have also made attacks deep into Pakistan, so again, no indication that either side will remain peaceful if the Kashmiri conflict ended.

[unmole]

> You can't live in India and think this seriously.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Ahmadis_(Pakist...

> unlike most states and people during partition

This is complete nonsense. Nobody got a say, Kashmir wasn't any different.

[leosanchez]

> Come on. You can't live in India and think this seriously.

I don't know where you live. There are states in India where minorities are absolutely safe.

[monkey_monkey]

> I'm inclined to consider India a safer nation for most muslim denominations.

That almost made me laugh.

[ignoramous]

That's the peace / piece Pakistan wants.

No one asks what the Kashmiris of the Valley want, which, for the most part, seems like they want to be left alone: https://www.quora.com/What-do-Jammu-and-Kashmirs-people-thin....

[barrkel]

One moment you say India wants peace, the next you question why India would make compromises that might lead to peace.

You know how this looks from a position outside the conflict, right? Can you imagine a Paskistani perspective? Put yourself on the other side. Imagine what it would take for peace from that point of view.

[alephnerd]

> involves swapping land, specifically, ceding Muslim-dominant territory to Pakistan

The sectors on the Indian side where fighting is happening right now in Jammu Division are 50-50 Muslim-Hindu/Sikh. What you are advocating would lead to Yugoslav style ethnic cleansing.

> setting borders along rivers

It already is that on the LoC, or mountain faces where rivers are not existent.

[JumpCrisscross]

> What you are advocating would lead to Yugoslav style ethnic cleansing

Yes. When you have a sectarian conflict, the only lasting solution is moving people around. Hateful people don’t learn to stop hating each other. Particularly not when you’re dealing with the levels of education in J&K.

> It already is that on the LoC, or mountain faces where rivers are not existent

And. Having a river with a sectarian cross isn’t useful.

This stuff is hard and controversial. It takes work. My point is nobody is particularly interested in that work versus leaving the region in a low simmer.

[alephnerd]

> Yes. When you have a sectarian conflict, the only lasting solution is moving people around. Hateful people don’t learn to stop hating each other.

Jammu Division is an entirely separate ethnic community (Pahari) from that in Kashmir Division (Koshur).

Even during the worst of the partition and the Indo-Pak Wars, the mountain areas where active fighting was occurring never saw the same kind of religious violence you'd see in neighboring Kashmir or Punjabi speaking areas like Jammu City or Mirpur City.

This would be solving a non-existent problem, as the leadership making decisions for conflicts on or around the LoC are not from these regions.

And btw, the Indian and Pakistani army did attempt that when my grandmother was a child, but it didn't stick and people from one side or the other would just cross back - and this was the norm until the 1980s.

---------------

There are ways to resolve the problem longer term, and that requires forcing professionalization of the Pakistani Armed Forces and cajoling India back to the negotiating table using the carrot and the stick. Similar precedent already exists with the Israel-Egypt peace accords under Sadat, and would have happened under Bajwa, Nawaz Sharif, or Musharraf if they weren't undermined.

[saagarjha]

> Yes. When you have a sectarian conflict, the only lasting solution is moving people around. Hateful people don’t learn to stop hating each other. Particularly not when you’re dealing with the levels of education in J&K.

"We should do my poorly thought out plan because they're too dumb to stop killing each other" is not a reasonable way to discuss geopolitics.

[kumarvvr]

> There are options for a negotiated peace that involves swapping land, specifically, ceding Muslim-dominant territory to Pakistan and setting borders along rivers.

Sorry, why would that be done? When Pakistan was split from India, because of the Muslims voting against their own land that they have been living in for centuries, the lines are set and done.

Why should India cede more land?

Pakistan is on one of the most resource rich, fertile lands in the Indian subcontinent.

[JumpCrisscross]

> When Pakistan was split from India, because of the Muslims voting against their own land that they have been living in for centuries, the lines are set and done

Lines are never "set and done for." We had a short period of global consensus around the unacceptability of taking territory by force. But between the superpowers' proxy wars, America's invasion of Iraq, China's annexation of Tibet and threats on Taiwan, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, that precedent was always tenuous at best and, now, has certainly passed.

> Why should India cede more land?

Because New Delhi expects something of greater value in return. For example, one could see a China-mediated truce trading territory in J&K for settling boundaries in Andra Pradesh and/or a deployment of Chinese troops on anti-terrorist missions in Pakistan.

Nobody is saying India just give land to Pakistan for feelsies. It's engaging in a negotiation where that's on the table.

> Pakistan is on one of the most resource rich, fertile lands in the Indian subcontinent

Geopolitics isn't fair? (Also, India is richer than Pakistan. Both in population and GDP per capital.)

That said, this argument represents the pathos in India. India broadly isn't interested in peace if it comes at the cost of territory. It expresses a preference for certain things above peace.

[pkd]

This is a weird line of reasoning. By this logic the aggressors will always win because the other side should always concede territory for peace.

Even if Kashmir is ceded to Pakistan, there is no reason why they'd be done aggressing for more territory.

[sbmthakur]

I know that's just an example but any kind of third party arbitrator has to be trusted by India. As far its territorial integrity is concerned India doesn't trust China or even the US, and this is true across party lines.

[kumarvvr]

One does not negotiate with terrorist supporting military dictatorships.

[sbmthakur]

Under no circumstances India is ceding any territory to a military run state that has sponsored terrorism in India. If Pakistan is serious they can start by putting PoK on the table and halt all anti Indian activities in their country. That would be a good start.

[boruto]

There is no guarantee that ceding land would result in peace.

[alephnerd]

> A peaceful India threatens Pakistan's entire existence as a military state

Pakistani Military leadership has attempted to negotiate normalized relations as well. The issue is someone in their lower ranks or on the political front tries to take advantage of normalization attempts to overthrow the previous leader. I documented a number of cases that happened this past decade below.

[alephnerd]

Pretty much. It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict.

And partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict.

[spaceman_2020]

The difference this time around is that leadership in both countries is more religiously hardline than the last serious war like situation we had (after Nov 26 2011).

Asif Munir is the son of an imam and an avowed Islamist. India’s ruling party is openly pro-Hindu. Modi is also under pressure from the hardline religious wing of his party for the recent focus on caste instead of religion

[JumpCrisscross]

> It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict

Yup. But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace.

> partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict

Zero chance. The problem is China.

[alephnerd]

> Zero chance. The problem is China

As I mentioned previously, the China factor is significant but overstated. And I'm fairly hawkish about China.

UAE and KSA have equally as much if not more leverage on Pakistani elite than China. Majority of Pakistan's trade is devoted to the UAE and KSA, and most leadership (military, political, and business) has family and financial relations in both countries.

In addition, the UAE and KSA's sovereign wealth funds own the bulk of Pakistan's core assets like K-Power, PIA, Karachi Port, etc.

Furthermore, the classic Pakistani Army retirement strategy is to become a mid-level officer in the Saudi Land Forces, due to past recruitment.

And finally, a similar amount of Pakistani weapons systems are NATO adjacent from previous American procurement, so Pakistan has leveraged Turkiye as a hedge against being overly dependent on China.

> But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace

On the India side the same people who were negotiating normalization with Bajwa remain. The only change has happened in the last couple years is IK was ousted by Bajwa, and then he was ousted by Munir.

Munir was DG ISI during Balakot, and immediately demoted to Corps Commander in the direct aftermath of the LeT attack (who like other militant orgs have gotten support from the ISI, but not as much from the Army). It's Munir's clique that appears to be trying to use this to solidify their hold within Pakistan.

India and Pakistan can normalize relations, and sincere attempts have been made by both sides, but inter-factional competition amongst Pakistan's elite has undermined it. Pakistan needs a Musharraf again.

[JumpCrisscross]

Nobody is threatening to topple Islamabad. UAE and KSA have interests, but insufficient influence to force outcomes. The relevant players are in Beijing and Washington.

> India and Pakistan can normalize relations, and sincere attempts have been made by both sides, but inter-factional competition amongst Pakistan's elite has undermined it

India has less motivation for war. But it’s also done nothing to negotiate a peace.

[alephnerd]

> UAE and KSA have interests, but insufficient influence to force outcomes

2019 is a good example of UAE using it's heft [0][1]. In a couple years we'll probably see leaks in Bloomberg or AJ about KSA doing something similar rn.

> India has less motivation for war. But it’s also done nothing to negotiate a peace.

Both have worked on reconciliation immediately before some incident arises that causes talks to collapse.

For example, the last couple months before this incident happened [2], in 2021 thanks to the UAE [1][3] before Bajwa-IK-Munir's tussle, 2017-18 before Balakot according to Cathy Scott-Clark and Adrian Levy [4], and 2016 before the Pathankot Attack [5].

In most cases, both attempts are made at negotiating normalization, but some faction attempts to undermine it.

And there were multiple other examples before the Modi admin, at least 2-3 other attempts in the MMS-Musharraf admin and 1 attempt in the Vajpayee-Sharif admin, but they were all undermined by some faction in the Pak Armed forces.

I'd recommend reading "The Spy Chronicles" by AS Dulat (former head of India's intel agency) and Asad Durrani (former head of Pakistan's intel agency) where they decided to leak a number of these incidents. The book ended up causing a major political scandal in both India and Pakistan.

[0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-28/india-...

[1] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-...

[2] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2460279/fm-says-govt-to-serious...

[3] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-22/secret-in...

[4] - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14799855.2019.16...

[5] - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35240272

[saagarjha]

I mean, it wouldn't be the first time. Although I'm not sure one can say the prior coups were orchestrated by a foreign power.

[kumarvvr]

> Neither side wants peace

Really? How do you know. Most Indians don't care about what happens to Pakistan or its people.

The moment Pakistan's military stops its terror funding and support activities, India will not care whether it Pakistan lives or dies.

[JumpCrisscross]

> The moment Pakistan's military stops its terror funding and support activities, India will not care whether it Pakistan lives or dies

I'll entertain this is possible. But it's not only unlikely but irrational so long as Pakistan deepens its ties with China. It's made almost certain by the attitude you're presenting: countries that do "not care whether" their neighbours live or die generally aren't on peaceful terms with them.

[cute_boi]

I don't know about India, but Pakistan definitely don't want peace. They are nurturing terrorist eg. Osama. I guess whole world should stand against Pakistan.

[alganet]

Fury Road could be seen as a reverse adaptation sequel of "Lolita" though.

The end of Lolita (old guy on a road, frustrated, goes off path) fits with the Furiosa taking a detour.

The roles are reversed. The young girl leaves in triumph (opposed to: the old guy leaves in frustration) and the old guy goes after her (opposed to: the young girl doesn't care about him leaving).

It could be just the skeleton of the story though.

Water is unobtanium of their scenic universe. In that movie perspective, it's related to healthy reproduction (healthy babies!), most likely cultural and not genetic.

As any work of art, it is subject to many interpretations. Not everything is a cue. But some cues exist in fact. Contrary to the meme swarm, you can't turn those ideas so quickly into what you want, otherwise it fails to connect to a sense of cultural continuity.

[alganet]

If you saw the cultural continuity, you can them jump to "Man On The High Castle" where the former Minister of Culture of Japan travels universes temporarily, revealing a drawer with banned books. Amongst them, Lolita.

The old Minister represents an aged cultural interpretation of a nation (not exactly Japan, but what is perceived to be the form of Imperial Japan if it has won WWII).

After seeing it, the character is called out by his son, before quickly returning back to the war universe.