[niemandhier]

This is probably the only real dangerous point at the moment.

Neither side gains to win much from a conflict, but should India really tamper with the water supply I hope they consult their economists first. Otherwise Pakistan has little choice but instantly commit to a full war.

The reason:

A significant amount of the food produced in Pakistan directly depends on the water from the river Indus. Even a moderate water supply reduction would lead to a loss of around 10% of the harvest.

That does not sound like much, BUT economically food is a commodity with low 'elasticity', meaning demand does not really go down with reduced supply. The result would therefore be a doubling of food prices.

In a country where people have little dispensable income, that means wide spread famine.

By all measures India is the more powerful state, but as Ukraine demonstrates: Desperation can make up for a lot of disadvantage.

[int_19h]

> Neither side gains to win much from a conflict,

If you mean people as a whole, sure. But it's not people who decide, it's the governments. And war is a tried and true measure for authoritarians of all stripes to use as an excuse to consolidate their power and rally the public. Because, well, it works - so long as you're on the winning side. But, given the history of Indo-Pak wars, I could see why the Indian government might believe that they'll win any open military confrontation that their actions may provoke.

[roncesvalles]

>Even a moderate water supply reduction would lead to a loss of around 10% of the harvest.

If that's the case then the die is already cast. Early in the conflict, India released too much water on the Chenub too early for the season as a way to punish Pakistan. The quantity of water was such that Pakistan had no choice but to let it run off to the sea. This now means that the upstream Indian reservoir will not have enough water to release during regular season where coordinated releases ensure farmers have an uninterrupted supply during certain critical time periods.

[Tade0]

Ukraine was desperate in 2014, when the Green Men arrived. In 2022 they were already anticipating an invasion, just didn't know when exactly it would occur.

By 2020 they already had Bayraktars and Javelins:

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/ukraine-to-buy-5...

[sdsd]

>By all measures India is the more powerful state, but as Ukraine demonstrates: Desperation can make up for a lot of disadvantage.

The question is whether China would prop up Pakistan like NATO did for Ukraine