[alephnerd]

Pretty much. It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict.

And partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict.

[spaceman_2020]

The difference this time around is that leadership in both countries is more religiously hardline than the last serious war like situation we had (after Nov 26 2011).

Asif Munir is the son of an imam and an avowed Islamist. India’s ruling party is openly pro-Hindu. Modi is also under pressure from the hardline religious wing of his party for the recent focus on caste instead of religion

[JumpCrisscross]

> It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict

Yup. But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace.

> partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict

Zero chance. The problem is China.

[alephnerd]

> Zero chance. The problem is China

As I mentioned previously, the China factor is significant but overstated. And I'm fairly hawkish about China.

UAE and KSA have equally as much if not more leverage on Pakistani elite than China. Majority of Pakistan's trade is devoted to the UAE and KSA, and most leadership (military, political, and business) has family and financial relations in both countries.

In addition, the UAE and KSA's sovereign wealth funds own the bulk of Pakistan's core assets like K-Power, PIA, Karachi Port, etc.

Furthermore, the classic Pakistani Army retirement strategy is to become a mid-level officer in the Saudi Land Forces, due to past recruitment.

And finally, a similar amount of Pakistani weapons systems are NATO adjacent from previous American procurement, so Pakistan has leveraged Turkiye as a hedge against being overly dependent on China.

> But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace

On the India side the same people who were negotiating normalization with Bajwa remain. The only change has happened in the last couple years is IK was ousted by Bajwa, and then he was ousted by Munir.

Munir was DG ISI during Balakot, and immediately demoted to Corps Commander in the direct aftermath of the LeT attack (who like other militant orgs have gotten support from the ISI, but not as much from the Army). It's Munir's clique that appears to be trying to use this to solidify their hold within Pakistan.

India and Pakistan can normalize relations, and sincere attempts have been made by both sides, but inter-factional competition amongst Pakistan's elite has undermined it. Pakistan needs a Musharraf again.

[JumpCrisscross]

Nobody is threatening to topple Islamabad. UAE and KSA have interests, but insufficient influence to force outcomes. The relevant players are in Beijing and Washington.

> India and Pakistan can normalize relations, and sincere attempts have been made by both sides, but inter-factional competition amongst Pakistan's elite has undermined it

India has less motivation for war. But it’s also done nothing to negotiate a peace.

[alephnerd]

> UAE and KSA have interests, but insufficient influence to force outcomes

2019 is a good example of UAE using it's heft [0][1]. In a couple years we'll probably see leaks in Bloomberg or AJ about KSA doing something similar rn.

> India has less motivation for war. But it’s also done nothing to negotiate a peace.

Both have worked on reconciliation immediately before some incident arises that causes talks to collapse.

For example, the last couple months before this incident happened [2], in 2021 thanks to the UAE [1][3] before Bajwa-IK-Munir's tussle, 2017-18 before Balakot according to Cathy Scott-Clark and Adrian Levy [4], and 2016 before the Pathankot Attack [5].

In most cases, both attempts are made at negotiating normalization, but some faction attempts to undermine it.

And there were multiple other examples before the Modi admin, at least 2-3 other attempts in the MMS-Musharraf admin and 1 attempt in the Vajpayee-Sharif admin, but they were all undermined by some faction in the Pak Armed forces.

I'd recommend reading "The Spy Chronicles" by AS Dulat (former head of India's intel agency) and Asad Durrani (former head of Pakistan's intel agency) where they decided to leak a number of these incidents. The book ended up causing a major political scandal in both India and Pakistan.

[0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-28/india-...

[1] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-...

[2] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2460279/fm-says-govt-to-serious...

[3] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-22/secret-in...

[4] - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14799855.2019.16...

[5] - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35240272

[JumpCrisscross]

> 2019 is a good example of UAE using it's heft

This is not projecting power, it's the UAE (and Qatar) playing their aspirational roles as the new Davos/Switzerland for diplomacy.

Pakistan is definitely more anti-peace than India. But while Islamabad undermines peace, New Delhi is mostly uninterested in it.

[alephnerd]

> Pakistan is definitely more anti-peace than India. But while Islamabad undermines peace, New Delhi is mostly uninterested in it.

That's a framing I agree with.

> This is not projecting power, it's the UAE (and Qatar) playing their aspirational roles as the new Davos/Switzerland for diplomacy.

Sure, but in India-Pakistan relations, they (UAE and KSA, not Qatar) are increasingly the only mediators with whom both parties can negotiate offramps.

Large pole countries don't have the same heft they may have had 15-20 years ago, and even the Russian-Ukraine War has shown that power differentials are not that significant between major powers and regional powers, and why multilateralism is critical (and a major reason I dislike Trump - I primarily only agree with his tariff policy, nothing else).

[saagarjha]

I mean, it wouldn't be the first time. Although I'm not sure one can say the prior coups were orchestrated by a foreign power.