[jeremyt]

Folks, the article is breathless and ridiculous.

As someone who is not there, but who has been there four times and run build lead for my camp...

Rain is not unheard of. It's probably pretty muddy and less fun than it normally would be.

Nobody is starving or dying of dehydration, and there is no danger of that. Most camps (and many people) have a huge surplus of supplies. Last time I was there, I drove out with a few dozen cans of sparkling water that I just didn't get to hand out.

There are PLENTY of supplies.

The worst thing that could happen is that somebody has a medical emergency and are unable to be evacuated until Monday/Tuesday. That's a real concern, but there are plenty of platforms that can land a helicopter if that's necessary.

This isn't the catastrophe calling for FEMA involvement that the article makes it sound like. :rolleyes:

[jph]

If you're there, shelter in place, and listen to people who are more experienced. This helps the medics.

Typically many medical issues are straightforward to triage and treat with field kits. Then the medics ask the person's friends to drive the person to Reno for more in-depth care.

Examples in my experience are twisted ankles, broken arms, alcohol sickness, dehydration, cardiac events, infections, lost prescriptions, overdoses, electrocutions, eye scratches, falls from heights, power tool slips, cold exposure, and of course burns.

This year, it turns out the timing of the rain makes for new kinds of challenges for the medics, because they're unable to use many of the transport vehicles that are akin to golf carts. And the medics are currently unable to refer people to Reno.

In a city of 70K+ people who planned for 5 days on average, now stuck for 3 more days because of the rain, estimate 50%+ more medical issues. And no way currently to drive to Reno.

In parallel, some generators will run out of gas supplies, some portas and bathrooms will run out of supplies and servicing, some heaters will run out of propane, etc. This combination tends to make people uneasy and somewhat irrational.

This is why shelter in place is important: it helps reduce accidents and injuries, and helps people to feel calm and think clearly. Help the medics and volunteers by staying put, being more careful than usual, and helping people as you can.

The advice to conserve supplies, and keep warm, is not because the whole city is likely to run out or freeze-- it's because medics want to minimize people wandering around the city seeking supplies, and want to keep people in good physical health and good mental health.

[jeremyt]

That is not a counterpoint. Counterpoint to what?

Not sure where I said "don't shelter in place". Not sure where I said "don't listen to people more experienced".

All I said is that nobody is going to starve or die of dehydration because they ran out of food/water. I stand behind that.

[jph]

When I wrote counterpoint, I meant to your opening "Folks, the article is breathless and ridiculous" and closing ":rolleyes:" because those sound (to me) like shallow dismissals. And felt (to me) like you were downplaying safety measures.

I'll delete my counterpoint word. My comment focuses on safety measures.

[Johnny555]

I don't understand your point? The article sounds reasonable:

"If you are in BRC, conserve food and water, shelter in a warm space,” warned festival organizers according to the Reno Gazette Journal. The news site reported that 73,000 people (a larger population than the city of Santa Cruz) are currently at the festival."

Which sounds like a reasonable reminder to not dump your water jugs and toss your remaining food in trash bags when you're packing up your camp because you may be there a few days longer than expected.

[thih9]

I also thought your point is to disregard safety measures. Perhaps because your original comment says that the article is ridiculous; and the article, sensationalized or not, advises to “conserve food and water, shelter in a warm space”.

[jeremyt]

But I didn't say that. You just made that assumption.

Just because the article is ridiculous does not mean I disagree with every single thing in there. I just think it's ridiculous, particularly in tone.

And also, I stand behind saying there's plenty of food and water. So, by all means "conserve food and water" if you want to, but saying that people "need" to is overstating the reality.

[Kiro]

So why are you downplaying this?

[6D794163636F756]

I think you're both attacking this problem from similar places. Panicking is a good way to get people to disregard safety measures. Shelter in place is important and one way to help it work is to reassure people that there are enough supplies.

From what I gathered, you're both saying that the correct situation is to stay in place because there are enough supplies? The key is to reinforce that idea and downplay the risk as long as everyone listens. If the roads are muddy and miserable remember that the more experienced participants prepared for this. Staying with them, sheltering in place is your best bet. If you try to leave and not follow safety protocols and the experienced participants you're likely to get yourself into trouble.

While you two are arguing it seems to be on the angle of approach and not the outcome. At least that's what it seems like to me who honestly has no idea what's going on and only barely read the article.

[jeremyt]

Seriously? You're still confused?

I believe the article is factually correct-ish, but is sensationalized and is spreading FUD and causing unnecessary potential panic.

That's why. I'm downplaying because it needs downplaying.

[rhaway84773]

I’m not clear where the article says people are going to starve or die or dehydration.

[ethanbond]

Lack of easy transportation can quickly turn a merely inconvenient or uncomfortable situation into an extremely dangerous one.

Break a leg in front of the hospital? Super minor.

Break a leg 40 miles from the nearest road? Extremely serious.

Mud, especially with huge numbers of people, has a way of turning the former situation into the latter situation rather quickly.

Also who’s being breathless? The article didn’t mention FEMA.

[jeremyt]

You are not 40 miles from the nearest road at Burning Man. You are a couple of miles from the nearest road.

[ethanbond]

Don’t worry buddy I don’t think mud physically moves roads further away.

A couple miles of hard-to-navigate terrain and a bit of hubris is plenty to kill someone.

[rcme]

Breaking a leg isn't serious if medical transportation is available, and it sounds like it is.

[ethanbond]

Sure hope so! You know what can change that though? More mud.

No one is asking to fly in the military here or something. People are observing: “oh, that seems like a risky situation that could go very south very quickly.”

[rolph]

breaking a leg or arm can be lethal due to immediate complications or emergent complications due to lack of prompt evaluation and treatment.

[lazide]

Sure, but that is not the common situation.

One advantage of everything being deep intractable mud - mud is soft! So less chance of compound fractures from a fall at least.

Though vehicle recovery is going to be epic. And that is a good way to break/kill people if not done very carefully.

I’ve seen (very expensive) vehicles end up completely destroyed and abandoned when someone wandered a bit too far out into a surprisingly wet/soft lakebed (around Ballarat/Trona - I can still see it on Google Maps, and it got stuck well over 20 years ago!), so I imagine we’ll have plenty of stories of drama to snack on popcorn over when this is all said and done.

[rolph]

>>Sure, but that is not the common situation. <<

-- when prompt attention is available.

falls are not the only cause of bone fracture.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2700578/

[lazide]

Nope. As noted in the paper, they are rare except for in severe trauma without prompt attention.

Otherwise us humans would have a MUCH lower survival rate than we already do out in the wild.

Or as the paper notes “The etiology may be traumatic or, rarely, nontraumatic.”

Non-compound fractures can still cause serious issues if complicated somehow, or even long term loss of function of course if they aren’t set correctly, among other less than ideal chronic issues, which should be done ASAP.

But it’s not like someone is likely to die (or even suffer serious long term issues) from an uncomplicated ulnar fracture if they don’t get to the ER within a few days, for instance.

The amount of water I’m seeing come down in the Truckee area right now sure is epic though, so no question they are in for a ride!

[geocrasher]

I live about 2 hrs south of BM quite near the route that all the burners take to get to BM. It's rainy, has been for the last two days. But this is Nevada. It'll dry up and be like it never happened in no time.

[somsak2]

> It'll dry up and be like it never happened in no time.

With more rain slated for today and Sunday, and the fact that it ends on Monday, I wouldn't be so optimistic.

[oceanplexian]

I live in Utah and have spent a lot of time on and around dry like beds. They do not “dry up quickly”. A quarter inch under the crust is likely going to be mud for weeks or months. Some vehicles might be fine but heavy ones are in deep $&@! until they are recovered. Just my uninformed opinion.

[lazide]

Yup. Going to be a lot of rental RV’s that ‘are not going to Burning Man, we promise!’ abandoned out there.

Fun times!

[geocrasher]

I didn't say it would dry up today, I said it'll dry up quickly when the rain stops.

[lazide]

Dry lake beds/playas tend to work differently. The caliche/clay tends to crust over and keep the fun, nasty goo around just under the surface for a lot longer than anyone expects. If someone goes out onto it, they can break through into stuff that doesn’t support any weight.

Kind of like if it was thin ice, but it’s actually (mildly) caustic mud.

That said, never tested this on that specific playa. It’s also usually somewhat location dependent even within a specific lakebed.

Don’t be surprised though if it takes months (next year? If there are followup storms) for some of these vehicles to be extracted.

[rhaway84773]

The only thing breathless seems to be your response to the article. It seems like a pretty straightforward laying out of the facts along with official recommendations and statements.

[ShakataGaNai]

The article seems to be reporting the facts in a fairly reasonable manner. We have friends who are there and they told us this exact same information: They've been told to conserve, no porta-potty cleaning is coming anytime soon, they may not make it out until Wednesday.

The article doesn't even say they are running out of supplies, other than the organizers have told people to conserve.

[floodedburner]

Original forecast called for 1 day of rain at .3". Forecast as of now has 3 days of rain and a total of 1".

Government involvement will incur a fee to the org. All the BLM LEO rolled off playa to avoid this.

[contravariant]

Just an inch of rain over 3 days doesn't sound that bad. Wind, hail and lightning are more pressing dangers if big thunderclouds develop.

[nwallin]

Burning man is in the Black Rock Desert. The Black Rock Desert is an endorheic basin. There are no outflows. The lake bed itself is 1,000 sq miles. The drainage that drains into the lake bed is 11,600 sq miles.

An inch of rain isn't a big deal, but when you concentrate it 11:1 it becomes very serious very quickly.

[EricE]

Desert ground is hard and mostly impervious. That 1" of rain will mostly run off from the surrounding area into the now not so dry lakebed. There's a dry lakebed not far from me a little smaller than up there and an inch of rain can easily lead to a foot of standing water if the rain happens over a widespread area in the watershed of that lakebed. I hope they packed stilts!

[floodedburner]

One hundredth of an inch impacts travel on the dried lake bed

[jakderrida]

While I don't disagree with you at all, the majority of burners are probably not well supplied build leads for their own camps. I went last year and while I was very well supplied and had a large RV with my own solar-powered refrigerator, I met up with friends that were not as wealthy and probably fit the typical profile for burners. They stayed in a tent, were at a camp with a centralized power source with a somewhat strict rationing system. They typically planned out their day such that most meals involved free food prepared using ingredients procured from a service that required driving into the campgrounds to make deliveries every day to many different camps. Many burners depend on water that is also delivered by water trucks that to perform water deliveries that were ordered and scheduled weeks before the event. You may be neglecting that not everybody is well-supplied and could barely afford the ticket and transportation.

[zerbinxx]

Which is why the “radical self-reliance” thing is so ironic/sad in this situation. Most people aren’t there for that, despite the warnings that RSR is part of the deal, the fact is that anyone who’s particularly interested in that kind of experience is already solo backpacking or something this weekend.

[jakderrida]

Damn... I am man enough to concede that you just Uno-Reversed my argument. You even had the sense not to introduce new thoughts that I could potentially attack out of spitefulness. Extra points, even, because the fact that I didn't think of it first undermines the fact that I attended it last year since I obviously didn't read the principles. I'm more impressed than insulted, btw.

[Mandatum]

That’s fine. Until you consider the inability to empty the portaloos.

[thinking_ape]

This is the last 2 days of Burning Man. How on earth would there be plenty of supplies left at this point? I bet most supplies were used up intending to leave tomorrow. If they are stuck there for several days they actually could run out of supplies. This is a weirdly arrogant statement to make.

[croes]

That's all valid as long as people behave rational, what some people don't do in such situations.

[DonHopkins]

Gee, I sure hope nobody at burning man is taking mind altering drugs! ;)

[tapatio]

It’s been impossible for me to get a ticket to attend. How do I increase my odds of getting one? You’re lucky to have gone 4 times already!

[stickfigure]

Burning man has peaked. This year there were tons of people trying to sell their ticket at discount. Some friends were giving away tickets. I don't think we will see the same demand again. Which is good - 70k people is more than enough.

Next year, just watch craigslist or fb marketplace a month beforehand.

[fragmede]

Or maybe people's ability to attend is simply a function of the economy, which is currently in high interest rate territory. The cost to attend is the equivalent of a trip to Europe for a week or a month, depending on how you roll. With things how they are, people simply can't take the time off work or afford to go.

[darkclouds]

You'll have about 250k people at Glastonbury, but there is alot to do at Glastonbury having been a few times, so 70k sounds rather cosy, which seems so unusual for the US which normally does things bigger and better.

Going to Burning Man is something on my bucket list, which is why your comment surprised me, how can you say its peaked?

[llamaimperative]

80% of the time when someone says an event peaked it’s because they’ve aged out of the event or the event evolved in a way that wasn’t to their liking.

You should totally go if you get a chance, but to be clear Burning Man is not a music festival a la Glasto. It’s much more of an art festival than anything else, and it’s really spectacular.

Also just ignore the lore around anti-capitalism, eco friendly yada yada. It’s a really sick party for super rich people and the artists they patronize.

[stickfigure]

It is possible to have the opinion that burning man is great and also that it has hit the upper bound of popularity.

This year was different - it was super easy to get tickets, often at steep discount. I don't see why next year will be different, especially with horror stories getting off the playa this year.

This is a good thing! If you want to go, now you can.

[ethanbond]

That’s usually not what people mean when they say an event peaked. The “peak” is always well below the highest-attendance, because it clearly was already uncool when attendance hit its max.

[darkclouds]

This YT video from 2019 seems like a good explainer.

It does attract some good DJ's though, I mean a $3-8m 70KW moving sound system/dance floor seems pretty awesome, aka the Mayan Warrior.

https://youtu.be/QRbC3GPW1HI?t=1290

[braislen]

It is because Burning Man is not Glastonbury. If it hadn't peaked in popularity before this it sure has now.

That really doesn't mean anything as far as the quality of the experience. It might even be better subjectively with less people. If it is something you really want to experience then go sooner rather than later though. I really loved BM when I was younger but I have aged out and it is pretty much the last thing I would want to do now. This mud just hammers that point home for me.

[frisco]

You should find a camp to join that can help coordinate tickets. (Whether Directed Group Sale or just having the network for overflow tickets.) Unless you’re prepared to spend $$$ and suffer through figuring out a lot to truly DIY it, it’ll be a much better experience to be part of a camp that knows what it is doing anyway.

[GaryNumanVevo]

It was a super easy year to get tickets, there were tons on craigslist in the Bay Area