[lazide]

Nope. As noted in the paper, they are rare except for in severe trauma without prompt attention.

Otherwise us humans would have a MUCH lower survival rate than we already do out in the wild.

Or as the paper notes “The etiology may be traumatic or, rarely, nontraumatic.”

Non-compound fractures can still cause serious issues if complicated somehow, or even long term loss of function of course if they aren’t set correctly, among other less than ideal chronic issues, which should be done ASAP.

But it’s not like someone is likely to die (or even suffer serious long term issues) from an uncomplicated ulnar fracture if they don’t get to the ER within a few days, for instance.

The amount of water I’m seeing come down in the Truckee area right now sure is epic though, so no question they are in for a ride!

[rolph]

>> without prompt attention <<

nope. there is no prompt attention in the current situation

as noted in the paper incidence of fat embolism approaches 30%

many undiagnosed incidence are discovered post mortem.

you are attempting to minimize a dangerous situation.

===========

>> EPIDEMIOLOGY

The incidence of FES ranges from < 1 to 29% in different studies. It varies considerably according to the cause. The actual incidence of FES is not known, as mild cases often go unnoticed.

Bulger et al.,[3] in their retrospective study, reported an incidence of < 1%, while Fabian et al. in their prospective study, reported an incidence of 11–29%.[4] Surprisingly, the incidence was 0.9% when only clinical criteria were used to diagnose FES, whereas with the aid of postmortem examination the incidence was as high as 20%.[2] <<

2. Georgopoulos D, Bouros D. Fat embolism syndrome clinical examination is still the preferable diagnostic method. Chest. 2003;123:982–3.

3. Bulger EM, Smith DG, Maier RV, Jurkovich GJ. Fat embolism syndrome: A 10 years review. Arch Surg. 1997;132:435–9.

4. Fabian TC, Hoots AV, Stanford DS, Patterson CR, Mangiante EC. Fat embolism syndrome, prospective evaluation in 92 fractured patients. Crit Care Med. 1990;18:42–6.

[lazide]

Your own refs point out it is usually not a problem, and there are very low occurancy rates. The situations it’s a problem, it’s obvious that there was a severe break.

The folks seeing higher rates are seeing them because their samples are coming from data sets with specific trauma backgrounds. Which is not surprising. If you look at postmortem results for people who died with broken bones, those folks all had severe issues! They died.

Probably none of them caused by getting their arm slammed in a car door, for example. Most likely caused by long falls off ladders, or car accidents, or industrial accidents, or getting beaten to death, or shot, or any number of traumatic events.

If you look at a dataset of all broken bones (which will be difficult to do frankly, as 90% of them won’t even show up in a database as they’ll be handled in an outpatient setting), the numbers will look wildly different.

In this situation if it was serious they’d just get medivac’d then. Which is not going to be difficult in this situation. If someone gets hit/run over with a vehicle, or hit by machinery, or has a giant pile of lumber collapse on them, or whatever, it’s not like anyone is going to tell them ‘oops, nothing we can do!’.

It’s mud. It makes walking and driving difficult. It isn’t going to make it hard for a helicopter with a decent pilot, especially with a helpful ground team. Reno has a very good medical center (several, actually).

[rolph]

>> In this situation if it was serious they’d just get medivac’d then. <<

there we go, good one.

[lazide]

What are you even going on about?