[oliwarner]

Major economies are already in deepening recessions. Major producers are starting the year with significant impairment from COVID and supply line pressures. The threat of Russia's aggression affecting other countries remains. Energy prices are still obscene in Europe.

I hope things get better, but I think you'd be mad to plan for global growth this year.

[hdjjhhvvhga]

> The threat of Russia's aggression affecting other countries remains.

Like what countries exactly? They can't even hold the ground they conquered in the previous months in Ukraine. Armenia already asked Russia's help and they refused - it was effectively a fatal blow to CSTO and has far-reaching consequences to the way Russia is perceived among its current and former allies.

[gambiting]

As a Pole, I'm very much nervous about the fact that China is not outright denouncing the aggression on Ukraine, and instead keeps promising tighter alliance with Russia. It could be just that they want to reap all the benefits of Russian resources by being the only place that will really trade with them in any capacity, but if they start supplying Russians with weapons and pushing towards escalating the conflict.....who knows what will happen. I really don't think a conflict with NATO is completely off the table, as suicidal as it would be for Russia(and everyone else). And with China's backing, they could be emboldened to do something that will push everyone over the edge.

[petre]

China supplying Russia with weapons is probably not going to happen. Not if they want to do any commerce with the US, UK and Australia, NZ and probably the EU. The Chinese, including chairman Xi are anything but stupid. They want cheap Russian resources and food, they want to buy and replicate some Soviet tech, so they are playing Russia with the cooperation card. The Chinese also have big investments in Ukraine's agricultural sector which Russia is screwed with, like the Nikolaev grain and sunflower oil terminal. So far they've avoided outright bombing the COFCO investments, but the blockade meant threatening China's food supplies.

[oliwarner]

I mean, aren't they still currently engaged in the genocide of the Uyghurs? Forcing them into work camps, breaking their spiritual freedoms, and relocating communities to forcibly dilute their unique genetic makeup? And the West did what?

China is building bases around the South China Sea, pushing borders back, commandeering fishing rights, making a claim on Taiwan and their territories, and pushing very close to US naval support in the area. What has the West done?

We're paralysed by our inability to build stuff, and our unwillingness to go against the electorate and actually stop them buying all the Chinese tat that they do. Our reliance on their mineral mining and processing means cutting them out means far worse than a recession in the short term. It would take two decades to even come close to replacing China and at an unimaginable construction cost because much of the world doesn't even make its own steel any more. And China has links, they own significant portions of Africa's mining rights.

China are untouchable and their military and their nukes have nothing to do with it. China has real power. If you ever want to imagine the end of the world, imagine what happens if we can't buy cheap shit from China and follow the thread through to a conclusion.

---

But why would they help Russia? That's probably a better avenue of thought. Russia has crazy territory, and resources without the real means to explore of extract.

Russia could make it worth their while.

[petre]

The West won't do much, unless it's in their interest.

The latest developments already complicated the getting cheap shit from China part.

[skinnymuch]

Western capitalism and imperialism has destroyed and killed so many lives. On par with anything China has done except in much higher quantity.

Look at the Kurds, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Iran, Korea, Vietnam, Yemen, Palestine, Egypt, Pakistan, Central America, South America, Africa. Look at the IMF. People like Fred Hampton, MLK, murdered by the West.

> If you ever want to imagine the end of the world, imagine what happens if we can't buy cheap shit from China and follow the thread through to a conclusion.

The west should stop exploiting all the poorer countries. Capitalism sucks. If the west can’t live without exploiting other people, the west doesn’t deserve comfy lives.

[hdjjhhvvhga]

> Yugoslavia

Although I agree with your sentiment in general, I don't like when people lump Yugoslavia with the rest. The West didn't start that war, it effectively ended it. They did what they failed to do in Rwanda.

You could say 'it's not their job, if people like killing each other let them kill themselves.' But it wasn't so. There were aggressors and there were victims. There is something sinister in watching people die when crying for your help just because you don't want to get involved. So while cases like Iraq and Afghanistan are clear-cut - these were just acts of bloody aggression fueled by feelings of revenge - Yugoslavia (and a few others on your list) are not.

[dragonwriter]

> They can’t even hold the ground they conquered in the previous months in Ukraine.

Because the West is throwing lots of resources at that. Should that resolve crumble, that could change.

> Armenia already asked Russia’s help and they refused - it was effectively a fatal blow to CSTO and has far-reaching consequences to the way Russia is perceived among its current and former allies.

Should the West shift to a more containment-oriented policy, the beyond-Ukraine danger is largely to CSTO countries. (Yes, they are nominal allies, but so was Afghanistan.)

[petre]

Eastern Europe, including all the newest EU members and the EU as a whole. There's a quite some capital flight.

The CSTO is mainly just Russia and they've demonstrated they're incapable of providing military aid to their members. However, Russia getting allied with Iran and China and their puppet North Korea is a problem.

I really wish the US defeats Russia again, like it happened with the USSR, but that's just wishful thinking. We are tired of Germany and France doing business as usual with Russia. Poland basically has zero trust in the EU handling Russia, that's why they arm themselves to the teeth. The others need to look at Poland and get their act together.

[danaris]

There's a big difference between "Russia can conquer this country" and "Russia can make life a living hell for people in this country (the ones it doesn't murder)".

No, Russia can demonstrably not hold much territory in other countries. But Finland, Poland, and the Baltic states would be foolish not to recognize that Putin desperately wants them back under his thumb, and is willing to go to obviously irrational lengths to attempt to fulfill his desires, however unrealistic.

Plus, he still has nukes, at least some of which are almost certainly still functional.

[hdjjhhvvhga]

If he was stupid enough to start a second war without winning the first one, I'd say he'd attack one of CSTO members rather than risking a full-scale world war with NATO. (Yes, I know Finland is not in NATO yet, but it's more a question of when, not if).

[chupasaurus]

> Armenia already asked Russia's help and they refused

To fight on territory which isn't recognized as Armenian by everyone else. A reminder that Russian peacekeeping unit is at the Armenian-Karabakh border, not Karabakh-Azeri.

[oliwarner]

Their hissy fits over fuel have driven inflation through the roof in most of Europe. Those same countries are sheltering Ukraine's refugees. More of the same threatens Europe's stability, pushes the EU closer to direct action.

And Russia has backed themselves into a corner, diplomatically. Not even the other CIS members have enthusiasm for Putin. So this idiot, who started this desperate for a legacy, only has a prison sentence for war crimes or a nuclear firework party in his future.

It is right to mock Russia's decisions, it's right to point out how pathetic their war has been, but it isn't right to claim they have no power to affect others near to them.

[hdjjhhvvhga]

Of course they have the power to affect the whole world in a negative way, but the risk of a second armed invasion when the first one is going very badly is very low. I wouldn't say impossible as history shows there were rulers more stupid than Putin but realistically it wouldn't make much sense.

[olonn]

probably finland and other countries near russia

[wonderwonder]

Traditionally western aligned non nato countries are probably safe from Russian aggression. Finland and Sweden are 2 votes away from joining NATO as it is. America just has to park troops and equipment in any threatened country and they are essentially immune from invasion. Their military is also a good deal better equipped that Ukraine's was. Finland has the largest artillery capability in western Europe and a strong anti - air capability. Short of nukes, I'm relatively certain Finland would chew up any invading Russian force, especially as depleted and exposed as they are from the war in Ukraine.

[AnimalMuppet]

Yeah, high-up Russian politicians have been talking about invading Finland or Poland or both.

And if the GP says that they don't have the military strength to pull that off, well, they don't. But they don't have the military strength to defeat Ukraine, and yet the fighting goes on, in complete defiance of sanity. No, Russia can't (successfully) invade either place. That doesn't mean he won't try. If I were Finland or Poland, I'd be preparing hard right now.

[hdjjhhvvhga]

The reason the war in Ukraine goes on is that Putin was misled. The original plan was to conquer Kiyv in a few days, kill Zelensky and others and install a puppet government. The whole "military operation" was just that. They had no plan B. I mean, they are trying to do their plan B now, with no hope of getting anywhere. But from Putin's POV in February it all made sense, and the fact that Ukraine repelled the initial attack surprised everybody, including the allies - and Ukrainians themselves.

On the other hand, in Finland and Poland there is no similar plan A, only total war with NATO. It is not impossible, but from the geopolitical POV it makes no sense at all.

[AnimalMuppet]

OK, but it's not February anymore. If they really have "no hope of getting anywhere", then why continue? Just as they have no hope in Finland, they have no hope in Ukraine. They once thought they did, but that was 10 months ago.