[danaris]

There's a big difference between "Russia can conquer this country" and "Russia can make life a living hell for people in this country (the ones it doesn't murder)".

No, Russia can demonstrably not hold much territory in other countries. But Finland, Poland, and the Baltic states would be foolish not to recognize that Putin desperately wants them back under his thumb, and is willing to go to obviously irrational lengths to attempt to fulfill his desires, however unrealistic.

Plus, he still has nukes, at least some of which are almost certainly still functional.

[hdjjhhvvhga]

If he was stupid enough to start a second war without winning the first one, I'd say he'd attack one of CSTO members rather than risking a full-scale world war with NATO. (Yes, I know Finland is not in NATO yet, but it's more a question of when, not if).