[dragonwriter]

> They can’t even hold the ground they conquered in the previous months in Ukraine.

Because the West is throwing lots of resources at that. Should that resolve crumble, that could change.

> Armenia already asked Russia’s help and they refused - it was effectively a fatal blow to CSTO and has far-reaching consequences to the way Russia is perceived among its current and former allies.

Should the West shift to a more containment-oriented policy, the beyond-Ukraine danger is largely to CSTO countries. (Yes, they are nominal allies, but so was Afghanistan.)