[rel2thr]

Month to month inflation has been flat or near flat for some months now. It’s seems like we had a price spike in December/Jan for various reasons and now things have stabilized.

If trend continues it seems we should be back in normal yoy inflation rates shortly once we start comparing against that post spike floor

[taolegal]

> Month to month inflation has been flat or near flat for some months now

Inflation compounds and we've been at relatively high inflation for a while now. Of course the Biden admin will want to just normalize this sustained inflation.

People are effectively getting around a month of salary stolen from them. Transaction cost of a new job hurts most people & depresses wage growth (the obvious side-effect of monetary expansionism).

It's fair to say that we won't experience deflation since no central bank will allow that. And our high debt load prevents raising interest rates anywhere near the necessary amount, if you compare it to Volcker. The only responses they seem to have, in practice, are: print tons of money or print slightly less than that.

We're trapped in a debt spiral and my guess is that the world suffers enormously from central planning (artificially low interest rates in the modern era in order to finance government disasters) and the US suffers less than everyone else because of their global hegemony (reserve status), economy & geography.

[colinmhayes]

Core was .6% last month, pretty horrendous after July looked good.

[dragontamer]

Nothing against you in particular, but all the "inflation complainers" were using CPI (not core-CPI) back in January/February to talk about Fed inaction. Now that we're 9 months later, with the Fed hiking rates, suddenly those _SAME PEOPLE_ are now complaining that the Fed rates are hiking too much.

-------

That being said, I agree with you. Core-CPI exists for a reason, and its a better measure of long-term trends. Oil/food prices change dramatically, while they're important real world measures of cost of living, they change too quickly to be useful. We should typically ignore oil/food prices and focus on other costs of living to try to glean the longer-term trend.

But what's even worse than using "CPI" or "core-CPI", is when people switch between the two to make a focused political argument, rather than an analysis into the state of the economy. Stay consistent damn it.

[fennecfoxen]

Yeah, this isn't just a one-time transient price spike that happened months ago. August fuel prices fell a lot (10.6%), a gift! — but core inflation erased all that progress, with a 0.1% month-to-month rise in the CPI overall. Food's up 0.8% in a month. Rent was up 0.7%. Cars were up 0.8%.

We probably can't rely on fuel prices falling 10% again next month.

[bryanlarsen]

The problem with core inflation is that it is a lagging indicator. Rent especially. If a landlord increases the rent on Jan 1 but your contract rolls over on Dec 1 that increase shows up in the December numbers.

And yes gas has already fallen 10% in September. From $4.087 in August to $3.677 today.

[landemva]

> fuel prices falling 10% again next month.

Mid-term elections are approaching and gas pump prices are an easy talking point. With SPR releases, why won't USA fuel prices drop?

[fennecfoxen]

Okay, you've convinced me. Now how about the month after that?

[landemva]

No idea. Which circus tribe will be in charge?

[endtime]

Probably not the one who can make the SPR never run out.

[ParksNet]

The USA is emptying the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a rate of 1 million barrels per day. Crude is typically extracted from the ground at about 15 million per day by that country.

When the SPR draining is finished (for midterms), upward pressure on energy prices globally will resume.

[foobarian]

Don't forget that the Covid stuff finally seems to have settled to some kind of new "normal," and that it's a once-in-a-century event that is going to be very hard to make any comparisons to.

[groby_b]

... assuming there are no further variants, and hand-waving long covid away, sure, it's settled.

I think we'll find that just like reports of Mark Twain's death, rumors of the end of the pandemic are greatly exaggerated.

[spookthesunset]

> rumors of the end of the pandemic are greatly exaggerated.

Only if people are stupid enough to repeat the last two years of nonsense. Take away all the fear mongering and testing and you probably wouldn't even notice covid was a thing. You'd get sick like you always do and just shrug it off as "that thing that was going around" like we all did in 2019...

[ketralnis]

This is the problem of mostly successfully preventing fires or preparing for floods. "It wasn't that bad" because it was handled, but since that was handled by somebody else it's invisible to you

[spookthesunset]

“If we did it right you’ll never even notice we did a thing” also happens to be an excellent way for any sleazy politician or “expert” to deflect any questioning.

[ketralnis]

It could be but does that happen often? I almost never see sleazy politicians claiming that, it's almost always taking credit for a great economy (that was on a trajectory before they took office) or promising some amazing future thing (that they don't actually do). I can't think of hearing a single "we prepared for this so it wasn't a problem", true or not

[prottog]

It's an unfalsifiable statement, so it needs to be examined with caution.

[somewhereoutth]

Yes how dare the plebs stay home to avoid dying when they should be toiling in the fields and factories so we can continue in the lavish lifestyles to which we've become accustomed.

[prottog]

> how dare the plebs stay home to avoid dying

Covid mortality rates for those in the working age are meh. More people died of accidents than everyone under the age of 55 from Covid.

> so we can continue in the lavish lifestyles to which we've become accustomed

We should just tax the rich instead, which of course is the true source of that lavish lifestyle.

[groby_b]

It is the (#2/#3/#4 depending on study) leading cause of death. We're currently at around ~150K dead/year - about 5 times the average rate of flu, about 3 times a really bad flu year.

It has significantly affected workforce participation, with a large disability burden.

You'd notice. Unless you're somewhat dense.

[conductr]

Not that I like it but, I happen to think it's just a new normal as well and if everyone starts behaving as if it's normal then the impact on global economics when compared to a similar period should be rather normal. Continuing lockdowns and other things that impact supply chains/production are examples of behaving like it's not normal. They will likely continue to some degree despite my opinions.

[groby_b]

Neither deaths nor disability can be wished away by "just behaving as if it's normal".

As for "continuing lockdowns" - most of the western world hasn't had a single actual lockdown. So let's not pretend that's the issue, or a desired approach to the problem.

What is needed is

- data transparency, instead of reduced data collection.

- targeted measures, instead of blanket measures. Utilizing the above data, and focusing on leading indicators, not trailing ones.

- a medical system that actually makes the tools we have available, as opposed to undermining them and pricing them out of range.

- a focus on ventilation.

- a normalization of mask wearing in public indoor settings.

None of those are close to "lockdowns". That's a strawman nobody is asking for.

[consp]

Around here there was a minor stationary period in may and june but was up before has gone up again since that, ymmv according to where you live.

[refurb]

Chart 1 lays it out.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

Inflation isn't increasing much in August - relatively to July, but July was still high.

That graph needs to go negative (a decrease in the inflation rate each month) for a long time before we get back to something "normal" like 2-3% inflation.

[colinmhayes]

I think you're misreading the chart. My understanding is that 12 months of 0 means a year over year inflation rate of 0, not the same amount of inflation as the year before.

[ninkendo]

Correct, the chart is a rate of change in the CPI itself. 0 on the chart means the CPI hasn't changed, ie. no inflation that month.

[scld]

That chart going negative would be deflation, not a decrease in inflation.

[refurb]

The chart is the first derivative of the inflation rate.

[bilsbie]

Meesa be thinking yousa confusing the second derivative with the first derivative.