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by colinmhayes 1365 days ago
Core was .6% last month, pretty horrendous after July looked good.
2 comments

Nothing against you in particular, but all the "inflation complainers" were using CPI (not core-CPI) back in January/February to talk about Fed inaction. Now that we're 9 months later, with the Fed hiking rates, suddenly those _SAME PEOPLE_ are now complaining that the Fed rates are hiking too much.

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That being said, I agree with you. Core-CPI exists for a reason, and its a better measure of long-term trends. Oil/food prices change dramatically, while they're important real world measures of cost of living, they change too quickly to be useful. We should typically ignore oil/food prices and focus on other costs of living to try to glean the longer-term trend.

But what's even worse than using "CPI" or "core-CPI", is when people switch between the two to make a focused political argument, rather than an analysis into the state of the economy. Stay consistent damn it.

Yeah, this isn't just a one-time transient price spike that happened months ago. August fuel prices fell a lot (10.6%), a gift! — but core inflation erased all that progress, with a 0.1% month-to-month rise in the CPI overall. Food's up 0.8% in a month. Rent was up 0.7%. Cars were up 0.8%.

We probably can't rely on fuel prices falling 10% again next month.

The problem with core inflation is that it is a lagging indicator. Rent especially. If a landlord increases the rent on Jan 1 but your contract rolls over on Dec 1 that increase shows up in the December numbers.

And yes gas has already fallen 10% in September. From $4.087 in August to $3.677 today.

> fuel prices falling 10% again next month.

Mid-term elections are approaching and gas pump prices are an easy talking point. With SPR releases, why won't USA fuel prices drop?

Okay, you've convinced me. Now how about the month after that?
No idea. Which circus tribe will be in charge?
Probably not the one who can make the SPR never run out.