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by usr001 1403 days ago
Lebanese here. To answer some of the questions in this thread:

- No, Lebanon does not follow Islamic Banking.

- No, people can't make wire transfers anymore. All bank accounts are frozen, you can't withdraw your own money. You have to beg and wait in line for weeks to be able to get a tiny amount of your account to be able to buy bread etc.

- The local currency collapsed, lost more than 90% of its value. If the bank decides to give you some change (from your own money), they play money conversion tricks so that e.g. your account is down $1,000 but you get $100 only.

- This person did not "rob" the bank. He tried asking the bank for money because his father (and some people said his child as well) were in the hospital, needed medical care, and for that the hospital needed money. He had $210K in his account, but the bank kept kicking him away in previous attempts to appeal to them. He came back with a gun, and held hostages. Negotiated until they give back $35K, to his brother who was waiting outside. Then he surrendered without hurting anyone.

- He is now in bad health because he's on a hunger strike after they arrested him. (In the negotiation they promised him not to arrest him, but of course they need to make an example out of him.)

- Why is this all happening? Bad economic and financial policies for 40 years, rampant corruption. The economy was unproductive, but they kept the local currency subsidized, as it turns out by just spending the money that people deposited in the banks. And it's all gone now.

16 comments

I understand the sentiment. This has already happened in Argentina in 2000 (the infamous "corralito"). Many people lost the savings of their lives. After this a big distrust against banks was installed and people decided to put their money not in bank accounts but in bank safe boxes, which in theory can't be touched. At the time I was a teenager in school but after that experience I've learnt not leave a single dollar in Argentinian banks. There seems to be literally no difference to what's happening there than what happened to us 22 years ago.

Edit: Some corrections and modifications.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina

> Since independence from Spain in 1816, the country has defaulted on its debt nine times

Amazing for a nation which is literally named for its reserves of precious metals.
I know the Chicago boys get some flak for what they didn't get right but it sounds like Argentina would have benefited greatly from a few of them... jeez
I don’t trust safes either. Buy gold and bury it. Other means are not solid.
The amount of people keeping life savings outside banks after the 2001 crisis caused a huge increase in the amount of kidnappings and violent crimes.

Those were difficult times.

Not arguing whether what he did was morally correct, but holding hostages at gunpoint is something that you always get arrested for, independent of negotiations
I don't disagree. After all, without such deterrent, the very next day all the banks in the country would be held at gunpoint.

There are many, many people who feel just like he does and are already on the edge, after having been shit on by banks and bank employees for 2 years now. Bank employees humiliate people, as it became a kind of Stanford Experiment. There were even demonstrations outside in his support, during the hostage situation, the moment it hit the news!

And this is why this story is making the rounds.

Even from a legal perspective, the banks don't have the right to do what they're doing. But the government is enabling them to do so, while the parliament is "trying" to work on new laws to regulate this period of "capital control". But no one will come after the banks. The government(s) caused this situation in the first place by borrowing the money from the banks, so it's not like there is anyone on the side of the regular Joe in all of this.

People are on edge, and desperate. Poverty and humiliation, after long hard working lives, to see all of their life savings disappear.

This the kind of environment in which people stop believing that the rule of law is just or should continue.

Lebanon has practically two different currencies. If you put money into a bank account now, you can access it. It's the old bank accounts that are locked unless you're willing to take a 90% loss.

What has happened in practice is that the old bank accounts contain have actually dropped in value, but the banks nor the government can admit that. Hence, this situation.

Disclaimer: I have been to Lebanon a few times, and a lot of my colleagues are Lebanese, and my knowledge of the situation comes from them.

> the old bank accounts contain have actually dropped in value

How? What happened to that currency since deposit?

There are two different exchange rates: The official rate and the black market rate. The latter is the actual value of the money. No one can actually get at their money using the official rate. That's why banks have two different types dollar accounts, one for old dollars (prior to the crash) and ones that have new money.
>There are many, many people who feel just like he does and are already on the edge, after having been shit on by banks and bank employees for 2 years now. Bank employees humiliate people, as it became a kind of Stanford Experiment.

Are bank employees actually mistreating people, or are they simply refusing to help?

A mix of both. Sometimes they tell people "we don't have cash anymore", they close the doors and don't let anyone in. Or just close the bank altogether for a long time (sometimes for fear of their lives).

Other times they give the account holder only one option to take money (say to send to their child's to pay for college abroad). And that option always involves the holder losing 5X to 10X of the value of their money. Write a check for $1000, sell it for $100, to get a $100...

At the end of the day, scarcity creates conflict.

And with that conflict, some employees choose to keep treating people with dignity and politeness, but without helping them (because they're following their bosses' policies.) And some just don't give a shit, slide into their dark side, and enjoy the power trip...

Are bank employees able to withdraw _their_ own money?
What's the difference?
This is making me scared of seeing a stock market collapse in my life time. If the market collapses in the US, and people lose their pensions, who knows what will happen.
I have the same fear. And more I read about the macro outlook it looks more grim.

Consider this situation - inflation is now what at 8%. That means the prices were up by 8% than last year. If it stays this high, federal reserve will raise rates but how high can the rates go? Turns out every 1% rate raise causes almost 33billion debt payment by US Treasury since US at this point has close to 33 trillion debt and growing.

A rate raise by 5% means around 150 billion for just the debt payment alone. This is obviously unsustainable as the Treasury doesn’t get more income unless it substantially raises taxes.

If we somehow come out of this situation, the debt will continue to rise since the US has a balloning social security spending and it’s only going to get worse due to more and more aging population.

So our generation (GenZ and millennials) are kind of screwed. I can’t see how we get out of this.

> Treasury doesn’t get more income unless it substantially raises taxes.

Government revenue generally should increase inline with inflation.

As long as GDP growth (unadjusted by inflation) is higher than the interest rates the amount of real debt will go down over time.

Historically debt to GDP ratios went down during periods of high inflation, even without any real growth it’s possible to inflate most pf the debt away as long you find people willing to lend you money at low rates (even 5% when inflation is 8-9% is mot that bad$

Inflation is how the state gets out of this. It inflates the debt away.
Not if the Fed keeps raising rates because that will make cost of borrowing high and given at this point how debt reliant the US economy is it will not be a comfortable path.

But yeah that has been my thesis as well that after a point there will be another “hedonic adjustment” in defining the inflation and that will bring down the official inflation number even though the real numbers are far higher. Just like how the housing market has inflated far more than the actual inflation numbers in last decade but the real numbers barely took it into account.

Inflation isn't a solution. It only cuts the value of existing debt. But future borrowing costs will increase, and potentially spiral out of control. In the long run some form of technical default is a distinct possibility.
the state gets away but at what cost?

lebanese pay it every day

1% of 33T is 0.33T or 330B.
Do the police and bank employees not also suffer under this system?
Everyone suffers. Bank employees are among the few who are maybe grateful they still have a job; their salaries are also reduced. They fear for their lives many days, because they get so much anger directed at them. Some branches close for a week in some areas because they're afraid of the people. But to do their jobs, many eventually become accustomed to treating the people as the "other"; perhaps similarly to how doctors/surgeons sometimes end up treating people like subjects.

The police went through periods of low wages as well. But the government prioritizes supporting them financially, because otherwise they'd have to make their money to support their families with other means!

At the end of the day though, every person's suffering is being delivered to them by another person.

Police are currently being paid like $70 a week.
Hopefully juries exist in Lebanon and they understand how to nullify.
No juries, only judges. And most judges are heavily influenced politically.
Juries are a component of common law (and not used in all common law countries at that), and the vast majority of the world runs on the civil law system (which is, IMHO, better).
France has juries for 'crime' trials under the civil law system. I'm not sure the presence of juries can tell you which of the system you have, nor the system you have tell you whether you have a jury.

Lebanon has a lot of french influence so I thought it might be possible, not being myself familiar with the Lebanese system.

Ha, my mistake, i thought it's an exclusively common law thing.

> In France, a defendant is entitled to a jury trial only when prosecuted for a felony (crime in French). Crimes encompass all offenses that carry a penalty of at least 10 years' imprisonment (for natural persons) or a fine of €75,000 (for legal persons). The only court that tries by jury is the cour d'assises, in which three professional judges sit together with six or nine jurors (on appeal). Conviction requires a two-thirds majority (four or six votes).

It's quite a particular use of juries.

If I'd known the backstory and lived in the vicinity, I'd have freely volunteered to be one of his hostages.

It's the right thing to do.

If everyone was as cavalier as they pretend to be on the internet, the US government would probably have been overthrown three times by now.
Really? Why not leave him with your children and come back to pick them up after your shift is done?
Because it should be their choice.
right so why aren't you and your family volunteering to become hostages in the hood? there is one like every month in USA
Article 421 in the Lebanese law allows acquiring asset owned by one provided that he does not commit other crimes such as causing damage, or taking hostages. He or she is required to sign up with the bank that his current balance reflects the amount he/she has taken, otherwise that amount would be considered as theft. source: https://www.lebarmy.gov.lb/
People mock the value of BTC a lot on HN, but it’s this exact kind of risk that it helps protect against (if you self custody).
If I understand the core underlying issue (as opposed to downstream result) is a currency that lost majority of its value through volatility.

Who can look me in the eye with a straight face and say bitcoin protects against volatility? That bitcoin "protects exactly" against mismanaged economy and corrupt government?

It's become my mantra but I swear people on HN don't understand how crappy life can get, how oppressive governments can get, how many rights and things we take for granted can be taken away by thugs, and believe a super high tech complicated software stack can magically fix it. sorry if that sounds harsh, but you know what, it is also harsh to listen to hungry angry oppressed people and constantly claim "bitcoin can fix that for ya".

> Who can look me in the eye with a straight face and say bitcoin protects against volatility?

In 5y, 1 USD went from 3.44 Turkish Lira to 17.94; Sri Lankan Rupee collapsed overnight from ~200 to ~360 per USD. Argentine Peso went from 17 to 134 per USD in 5 years.

I can easily look you in the eye and say that for countries with shitty governance and poorly managed economies, Bitcoin is a far better bet than their local currencies. So far, a common alternative was USD but after it was demonstrated that even a nuclear armed country like Russia can lose its USD reserves overnight, I think a lot of countries would be looking for alternatives. Bitcoin and Gold are credibly neutral alternatives.

You are simply saying one of two things:"deflationary thing would be nice to keep your savings in" and "the USD is a strong currency". What kept people from buying gold, bitcoin or commodities or other speculative assets in those countries? The fact that they are still a bad currency, because a currency is ultimately what your state demands taxes in and wants/subsidizes for transactions to be in. A currency without a state is just a ledger with faithful devotees, and as we see with tornado cash and the continued lack of a bitcoin or Crypto economy producing basic things like food, it faith doesn't seem to be enough (which is ironic because we call traditional currencies fiat now to differentiate from Crypto, when we should call them tax-based and fiat respectively)
+1 on this, you nailed the issues exactly! Bad fiat currency is simply a proxy for bad state, bad government, bad governance. USD is safe and sound as long as USA and USG are. Would reuse tax-based and fiat-crypto - you got that right too - except for fear of all mighty confusion. :-) Money, currency, banking are confusing enough for most people already.
> USD is safe and sound as long as USA and USG are.

I agree. People living in USA or Eurozone may not see the need for BTC since they have good stable governments with well-managed currencies[1]. People outside of those pockets, however, need some option to escape from their governments' corruption and tyranny. BTC is a neutral, and hence better, option. Because if your country falls out of favor of USG, your savings just became a collateral damage when USG imposes sanctions n all.

[1] this sentence might come as a shock to some since news media constantly paints apocalyptic picture. But US and Eurozone is a really good area of the world to live in.

> The fact that they are still a bad currency, because a currency is ultimately what your state demands taxes in and wants/subsidizes for transactions to be in.

I guess you have not lived in a third world country. I have, for multiple decades. And I have seen first hand how black market or under-the-table transactions work. There is a huge economic activity in corrupt countries which happens out of government taxation reach. Bitcoin is a perfect instrument for that. Bitcoin or USD or Gold are great options for preserving value of your savings in such countries. For ordinary transactions, Bitcoin or USD are much better since Gold is harder to exchange in exact quantities needed for the transaction.

Done that. As a store of value - USD has lower volatility than BTC => USD wins as a store of value. As a medium of exchange - USD paper notes are more convenient to work with (on balance) => USD wins as a medium of exchange. Hence - people in 3rd world countries are not silly or un-informed to prefer another country fiat currency (from a - comparatively - well enough run country), over theirs' (badly run) country fiat.
In 1y, 1 BTC went from USD$47,113 to USD$24,735 (365 days period). If you compare from the high point, it went from USD$67,582 to USD$24,735. Doesn't sound like a good store of value, sure it's (theoretically) better than the 500% inflation of the Turkish Lira but anything is better than that.

> [...]but after it was demonstrated that even a nuclear armed country like Russia can lose its USD reserves overnight,

That's purely due to sanctions, which can affect cryptocurrency as well due to the entire ledger being public.

> That's purely due to sanctions, which can affect cryptocurrency as well due to the entire ledger being public.

Woah boy, that's a lot to unpack. I guess you heard some news about recent sanctions to TornadoCash... and then you thought that cryptocurrency can be confiscated/frozen as what happened with Russian's USD reserves?

What has happened so far: some arrest of at least one developer, some freezing of some (centralized-)stablecoin accounts, some closure of github accounts, etc. But pure (as in, not centralized stablecoin) cryptocurrency stored in cold wallets cannot be frozen at all; and that's the whole point of cryptocurrency.

No, I was not referring to or using Tornado as example here. I was referring to US sanctions on Russia forbidding trade, therefore causing Russia to fall back on their reserves and unable to access further USD reserves.

Cryptocurrency is vulnerable to this as well because, even if you have a cold wallet and run your own node, your transactions are still public and taint every wallet that receives your coins. Vendors might not want to trade with you so that they don’t get the same treatment, exchanges might not want to risk their entire liquidity to cash your BTC out, etc.

> ...but anything is better than that.

And how many Turkish people can hold something that is not Turkish Lira as easily as bitcoin?

Indeed everyone holds non-local currency too. I'd presume USD and/or EUR have taken on the role of "store of value". I lived through collapse of a state 30yrs ago, and exactly that happens: locals refuse to hold the local currency (that reflecting on the health of the state is quickly losing value), there is a vigorous fx exchange market (either white-legal, grey-tolerated, or black-illegal but existing), and locals exchange their savings from local to foreign fiat currency. No one ever used gold, not once I saw gold being used for anything. Nor any other commodity. Foreign fiat currency that is stable is much more practical and convenient. Until BTC is as convenient as a credit card, can't see it used as "means of exchange". As store of value - maybe, but foreign currency maybe again more stable less risky (on humant time horizons), so again wins for that too over BTC. Sorry for the spoiler.
How would they hold bitcoin to begin with if they need to pay for local services? How would they get paid in bitcoin, or do they need to convert their funds to bitcoin ahead of time? In such a case they could’ve easily picked USD instead.
Dollar cash is as valuable in Russia as it was before. I don’t know why countries use electronic dollar. Just use cash. Nobody can arrest it. I don’t know the precedents at least. If Germany would refuse to accept those, Chinese will accept it.
Last time I checked, it was illegal to take more than $10k out of Russia per person. Even private plane passengers were thoroughly checked for cash (something completely unheard of before). And yes, governments all around the world have, and will arrest your cash.
>Who can look me in the eye with a straight face and say bitcoin protects against volatility?

Can you really say with a strait face that you think BTC's volatility is worse than literally losing your bank account with all it's content?!

People who live in places like the US forget that the average fiat currency has a lifespan of roughly half your life expectancy (37yr irrc).

> Can you really say with a strait face that you think BTC's volatility is worse than literally losing your bank account with all it's content?!

Ask Luna holders for their opinion on this matter, it seems they experienced pretty much the same thing (or holders of any other crashed cryptocoin). Bitcoin itself might not be down 100%, but it also lost a serious amount of value in the last half year. Plus, there are a lot of ways to completely loose your bitcoin, be it hardware failure or scams.

So yes, I can say with a pretty straight face that Bitcoin is not a great protection against volatility, which is what the original comment claimed.

Why would you drag down Bitcoin to the level of the know scammer/shitcoin/altcoin Luna???
No serious person involved in crypto would keep their wealth in a coin like Luna. They will buy it for speculative purposes, but that’s about it.
Luna ≠ Bitcoin
Indeed, it would be like blaming the USD because I lost my shirt at the casino.

The problem about crypto is that all the scam coins and get-rich-quick schemes gave a bad name to that famous piece of technology.

Luna =/= Bitcoin
> Can you really say with a strait face that you think BTC's volatility is worse than literally losing your bank account with all it's content?!

No. But BTC is worse— it comes with all of the volatility and the risk of losing your account with all it’s content.

its
Whereas Bitcoin has been around for hundreds of years and is still going strong.
Bitcoin was invented in 2009 so it's been around for exactly 13 years. And its value is extremely volatile.
Imagine if money didn't exist at all and we invented it today. It would be such an enormous technological game changer its value would change very very rapidly as we're going from zero to a huge "market cap" very quickly.

Imagine a pool. If you fill it with a lot of water rapidly, there's going to be a lot of turbulence. Doesn't mean that in the long run, as it gets filled, it won't settle down.

The volatility argument doesn't consider the fact that it's gone from zero to something big players and states invest in in 13 years. And that frankly it was not good enough to be digital cash but it's getting there. That's bound to cause a lot of turbulence.

>the average fiat currency has a lifespan of roughly half your life expectancy (37yr irrc).

Just like our products, fiat currencies have planned obsolescence and limited lifespans, this is because permanent money is a fantasy that cannot exist in the real world. Almost nothing in the real economy is permanent, not even humans.

If you want a currency that lasts forever it will have to not only have children, it will also have to be able to die like humans.

Ever heard of gold? It worked well for 4000 years, at least.
> Who can look me in the eye with a straight face and say bitcoin protects against volatility? That bitcoin "protects exactly" against mismanaged economy and corrupt government?

You are conflating volatility and corruption

Bitcoin won't protect you against the former (and neither did the lebanese pound), but it does offer protection against the latter.

With bit coin, and other cryoto, being using as the go to way to oay ransom attacks I highly doubt bitcoin does anything other than making corruotion easier.
And tech support scammers use Apple gift cards, so obviously Apple is just a giant scam too
If gift cards were everything Apple did, yes thatbwould be true. Since obviously gift cards are not everything Apple does, it is clearly not true.
After the Roman empire fell common things were still priced in equivalents of the old currency everywhere even though the currency was dead. When converting BTC to anything, the common denominator it will be compared to for purposes of trade is another equivalent everyone intuitively knows the value for such as the US dollar.
> Who can look me in the eye with a straight face and say bitcoin protects against volatility

I can do so. As volatile as crypto is, it is still much less volatile than a national currency in a collapsing country.

People in the west and in 1st world countries are much too privileged to see this though.

>>People in the US or Europe are much too privileged to see this though.

I have no idea why you'd think so, thank you very much.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Socialist_Feder...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Federal_...

> no idea why you'd think so

You have no idea why Id think the average person living in the west right now is dealing with significantly less problems than people living in a country that is experiencing full scale economic collapse?

Really? I think it is pretty self evident that most people living in the west are dealing with much smaller problems than people living in places like Lebanon right now.

If someone is unable to see this pretty basic fact, that their lives are likely much better than the people experiencing full scale economic collapse, then I guess that privilege is stronger than I expected.

The West is just doing it in slower motion due to having more knobs to pull to let steam out of the reactor — so to speak.
I have replied to your original comment, as it was written then.

You have now edited it, which fair enough, but therefore I think your "really? You can't imagine why I'd say this [...]" Is unwarranted and I cannot meaningfully address it anymore.

When people say Europe they don't understand it means so many countries, they just think of France, Italy and Germany.
If it were true that somehow a crypto currency could hold its own in a collapsing economy surely it would just lead to massive queues/shortages? If the economy isn't producing enough it really doesn't matter what sort of currency you use, it's gonna be bad for almost everyone. It may make some difference in terms of foreign debt.
> If it were true that somehow a crypto currency could hold its own in a collapsing economy

I am not sure why you are speaking in hypotheticals. The economy of lebanon did collapse. And if you were holding bitcoin, you'd be much better off than holding that local currency.

Economies collapse all the time, around the world. And because the coin is a global market, it is insolated from local collapse.

> it really doesn't matter what sort of currency you use

But it did matter! Just look at the current situation, in Lebanon right now. If you were holding the local currency, you'd be screwed. If you were holding a global currency, you'd be much better off.

Actually, you’d be way better off with a stack of crisp $100 US bills or silver coinage.

Good luck finding a way to convert your bitcoin into some sort of locally fungible currency while that economy is in a state of collapse and the crypto brokers are on a similar path.

Would you be? If the economy doesn't produce enough food, what food there is just goes up in price. You can say "buy from the global market" but that requires having money, a tall order for a country with a weak economy.
Assuming you could buy basics from an international market and somehow get them delivered to you at a reasonable price using said global currency, true. But how realistic is that?
Unless your crypto is with one of the many exchanges currently in the process of collapsing and blocking withdrawals... While the rich guys running the show walk away with mass profits. Yeah, definitely better.

You're basically making the same argument as 'just swap all your money for a different currency.'

It's interesting, I seem to always see these comments on behalf of people who might find crypto useful to avoid local currency issues, not people actually doing it.

> Unless your crypto is with one of the many exchanges

Bitcoin believers always say - "not your keys, not your coins". I am sure you have heard it a million times by now since you also seem to be keeping tabs on which crypto exchanges are collapsing.

I think Crypto sceptics are the ones more likely saying "not your keys, not your coins..."
Unless your crypto is with one of the many exchanges currently in the process of collapsing and blocking withdrawals... While the rich guys running the show walk away with mass profits. Yeah, definitely better.

You're basically making the same argument as 'just swap all your money for a different currency.'

> If I understand the core underlying issue (as opposed to downstream result) is > a currency that lost majority of its value through volatility

No, that is incorrect, the Lebanese pound did not lose it’s value through volatility. It lost it’s value through debasement, a fractional reserve and outright theft by the central bank of Lebanon.

Here is an article that explains the process [1].

Successive governments used bank savings as a piggy bank beginning after the 1975-1990 civil war. Things accelerated in 2016 when the banks started paying unsustainable interest rates on savings to entice savers in a grand government-sponsored Ponzi scheme that ended in 2019 when banks could no longer pay back savers and froze accounts.

Had the savings been held in Bitcoin, on-chain, no government or central bank could have stolen the savings. 1 BTC=1 BTC on-chain and there can be no debasement, no freezing of funds, and no ponzinomics. Despite Bitcoin’s short-term volatility, as a self-custody asset, it would have been the ideal store of value for Lebanese savers. Remember, the Lebanese pound has been debased by 10x, even if you can access those funds. Bitcoin truly does fix this.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-financial...

Bitcoin can't fix this because it would promote even more corruption, imagine if politicians sole goal in their political career was to get Bitcoin as soon as possible to live off their constantly growing savings? How do you get Bitcoin as fast as possible? Corruption is quick and dirty.
Especially when bitcoin has lost almost 2/3 of its value in the last year.
And increased in value well well over 10x in last few of years but go on.
Other comments laid it out already, but you don’t understand the underlying issue. Volatility is unrelated to the risks I’m talking about.

Your criticism doesn’t sound harsh, just wrong.

Not because of volatility

It's because of fractional reserve and banks and governments colluding to print money out of thin air or just spend most of it.

Volatility is a different problem: I agree btc is not the solution, we need a political solution for that.

And maybe a currency backed by real things (not necessarily precious metals, common goods would represent the economy better). Either the bank has it and I can get it anytime or it's fraud.

>It's because of fractional reserve and banks and governments colluding to print money out of thin air or just spend most of it.

Have you ever considered that the way money is currently structured requires ever more creative solutions that sound pointless and counterproductive yet are entirely necessary to keep it alive?

Yes it's volatile that's why you don't put all your money into it. Diversification!
I think it’s people who, in good faith, still deeply believe in the theory behind Bitcoin but ignore or dismiss the decade of experiments showing it just isn’t working.
The fact that you could hold some % of your wealth in BTC (in self custody) and have insulated yourself from the failure of the Lebanese currency is evidence that it is working.
How would self-custody of BTC allowed this man to pay for his father's medical bills? As far as I'm aware the hospital did not accept bitcoin payments.

There have also been several instances in time where BTC has lost 80% of its value (and many more instances of 50%+), so it doesn't protect against the downside risk of needing money in an emergency.

> How would self-custody of BTC allowed this man to pay for his father's medical bills? As far as I'm aware the hospital did not accept bitcoin payments.

Sell your BTC for cash, in person.

> There have also been several instances in time where BTC has lost 80% of its value (and many more instances of 50%+)

Better than the 90% inflation (or withdrawal "correction") in Lebanon.

> Sell your BTC for cash, in person.

This is totally absurd - you need to buy real goods, they are priced in USD, there is shortage of USD in the country. noone will trade with you

your only chance is to pay bitcoin to someone abroad who can exvhange them for USD there and ship goods to you that you can trade locally

> noone will trade with you

There are P2P non custodial exchanges where you can sell your BTC in person (e.g. LocalCryptos), in case you need to stop hodling for some sudden expense, like the medical bills for your dad.

Did you try to search Lebanon on localcryptos or localbitcoins? The former has no listings which transact in LBP, only one which requires Western Union (USD).

And the latter has no listings at all in Lebanon.

For cash?

The entire reason he held up a bank is because NOBODY HAS CASH in Lebanon.

Nobody can get cash to sell you.
Do you mean that cash that isn't worth anything in the scenario Bitcoin is solving for??
I’m not advocating for putting 100% of your money into BTC, but a chunk would help (especially in countries with less stable currencies).

The hospital might not take it directly, but he’d still retain control of it and be able to find a way to exchange it for something the hospital does take.

It might help in this situation, but it's not the best possible solution. Storing it in USD or gold is more stable. You could keep those in a vault or in a foreign bank account. Bitcoin is very volatile and, as you said, still requires exchange, which might also be very tricky in a situation like this.
I do think allocating some percentage into BTC makes sense depending on an individual's risk tolerance. But only as a speculative investment and absolutely not for emergency funds, due to the volatility.
> But only as a speculative investment and absolutely not for emergency funds, due to the volatility.

In a country with a sound financial system, 6 months of expenses in a savings account might suffice. However in a country without a sound financial system you'd want 6 months of expenses in a savings account to protect against your own job loss, and maybe 6 months of expenses in bitcoin/offshore account to protect against a local financial system collapse.

It's also a hedge against local currency failure and can be useful in an emergency situation as shown here.

Hoarding USD could also work, but it may be harder to get and it's definitely harder to protect/move in large amounts.

>can be useful in an emergency situation as shown here.

Clearly holding Lebanese currency in a bank may not be useful for holding emergency funds. But I do not believe that it's been shown that at point in time an asset which can drop 50% in value over two months, which is the type of acute timeline in which an emergency can occur, and requires transacting into LBP anyways in this scenario, is useful for holding emergency funds either.

It would help because:

A: his money would be on the blockchain where it's unable to be seized by the bank.

B: as Bitcoin is a world currency it's unlikely would face inflation to the level that the local currency has

C: if he was unable to change Bitcoin into the local currency to pay for the medical procedures, he could transact with someone like a money changer instead

This scenario is kind of the whole reason the Bitcoin exists

Once he finds a local Lebanese money changer willing to exchange LBP for bitcoin (for how large of a fee?) and sends the BTC, he now finds himself in the exact same situation as the bank - having to trust a centralized entity.

And inflation is also not so much a concern if the value of the asset itself drops 50% in two months.

Trusting a 'centralized' entity of your own choosing, rather than a limited choice of broken banks, for a short period of time for a single transaction is a big step up to having to trust a centralized bank of little of your own choosing in the midst of a banking crisis _for the entire duration of ownership of the money_.

This is Lebanon, not someplace like France. This could be a money changer with an AK at his side, a buyer with AK at his side, money and BTC changes hands and after the confirmations finish out on the BTC side they're on their way, simple as.

What centralized entity? Do you mean counterparty?
Well even if you had BTC and can convert it to cash somehow, where do you put that cash? How does this guy pay the hospital? Turn up with $30k in a duffle bag?

Somewhere your money has to go into the countries financial systems. Which makes sense. Money isn’t just for trade. It’s to exert soft power.

No, I mean the local centralized entity that would need to have sufficient LBP available for exchange for BTC to solve this man's problem. He needs to pay a hospital, not trade crypto with an anonymous counterparty.
> as Bitcoin is a world currency it's unlikely would face inflation to the level that the local currency has

If Bitcoin drops in value substantially, that has the same effect to retail shoppers as inflation.

And with all of the bonkers things to happen in the last decade, seeing Bitcoin drop to a small fraction (like 1/10th) of its current value in the next 2-3 years seems unlikely but not entirely out of the question. And that's a pretty big downside when talking about ones' life savings or even ones' emergency fund.

But if you’re in a place where this sort of thing is necessary (keeping your money out of government or bank hands), you might be willing to take that risk. Because being able to get some money out of the country, is still far better than having no money. Imagine for a second you had to flee and claim asylum. I think it’s fair to say that this use case for crypto is undisputed.

The major problem with this is that these people have to use systems that’s full of scams and the value of their money is controlled by people in the first world with tons of cash to burn.

Probably some combination of Bitcoin, commodities you could carry on a person (gold? jewelry?), and real-estate (relatively less likely to be taken than cash) is a good plan. But I'm not an expert.
>If Bitcoin drops in value substantially, that has the same effect to retail shoppers as inflation.

Yes, Bitcoin doesn't solve THE inflation problem, it solves one out of many.

It solves the initial problem of "how do I get my money out of the bank" because you ARE the bank (sort of). BTC doesn't directly solve the problem of liquidity, exchange to other currencies, etc. however.
> It solves the initial problem of "how do I get my money out of the bank" because you ARE the bank (sort of).

Unless you use an exchange, which a lot of people do. You don't have to, of course, but you could also keep your savings in cash - which would not only avoid the above problem, but also rid you of the need to exchange it.

Lebanon is not a country lacking people who keep savings in cash, and some of those people likely need to send it out of the country without suffering their broken banking system. Honestly I'd be surprised if it _was_ hard to trade crypto for cash in Lebanon.
Seems like BITCOIN has crashed to very low values recently as well: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/harrypotterobamasonic10...
They would certainly accept USD
Yes, Lebanese people with foreign bank accounts were probably better off. But not all USD-denominated accounts are necessarily safe (it depends on the country), and sometimes it might be hard to open an account.
Fiat already has self custody, it's called storing banknotes under your mattress (this is sometimes done in countries with poor bank records btw). The trouble is that you need to cover yourself any risks, like losing the money to robbery or fires

Which incidentally is the same problem of cryptocurrencies: you need to have good security practices to not lose money to malware or simply forgetting the password

When you choose a bank you also have risks, but a different set of risks. It's more like systemic risks, that everyone else would also be affected

It does but it has other risks.

Lebanon has problems with power availability so there is that. You need internet access to use it.

Also it protects you but it protects a robber or hacker if they get access to your keys.

It has price fluctuations that might make USD more attractive.

Also you need to convert from BTC to a regular currency to buy things. Well almost everything.

I recommend Saifedean Ammous' interview with Lex Fridman.

He's got strong opinions and a somewhat dour persona, but as Lebanese-Palestinese he's lived in a very different environment than what we're used to here in the West.

If you keep an open mind and understand where he's coming from, I think he's good some insightful ideas on Bitcoin and its role in economic upheaval.

https://youtu.be/gp4U5aH_T6A

FWIW this episode turned me from a "fuck any form of crypto" stance to an appreciation of BTC the technology. All the other scam coins and Ponzi schemes can't collapse to zero soon enough.

It is with comments like these that i feel that one upvote just isn't enough. Why can i not one time per week give a comment a +5 ?

Anyways, to add some information to this: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoin-should-be-the-sa...

BTC has the same problem with exchanges gambling with their customers' currencies, setting up prices that work for them, running out of Bitcoin to trade and collapse when people want to take their money out.

The Lebanese lira might as well have been a cryptocoin and the Lebanese banks might as well have been exchanges. Anyone keeping their savings in their own home wouldn't need to rob banks to get their deposit out, just like anyone who keeps their Bitcoin in their own wallet doesn't run the risk of exchanges collapsing around them.

Wouldn't owning USD also protect against this?
In this specific case, perhaps yes, but in most cases where your country is collapsing you will also want to cross borders. Your cash is likely to be confiscated.
and if your phone and laptip is confiscates?

Are you going to print a paper key, put it into waterproof capsule and eat it?

Instead you could just open a bank account in a foreign bank, and they will always allow you access to your money

I like how people often suggest to “just” open an account in a foreign bank.

Even assuming the foreign bank would not “just” refuse you for not being a resident, or being a significant risk, or not accepting your identification, or whatever. Then your Lebanese bank would surely wire the money there without any issues, and your Lebanese employer would be happy to do so as well, and of course there are no laws stating that only liras are legal payment currency for services rendered in Lebanon.

Of course. It would require prior preparation.

I have a few friends who worked in China and the default is you immediately move any money out of the country as soon as you can. It's simple to bring it in, but getting it out can range from "here are 5 forms to fill out" to "sorry, we aren't processing transfers at this time".

Or you can memorize 12 words. Not saying this should be the common practice or that everyone should do it, but having the ability to store your wealth in your mind is useful.
This feels like a parody, you don't store wealth in your mind otherwise you could create it out of thin air you merely keep track of your personal share of the world's wealth.
Where would you store the USD?
I think the USD would have to be in a foreign account
It’s true it can help if the local currency is dogshit
Yeah, or he could just hold physical US$ or gold.
You are absolutely right. Yesterday I watched a documentary by DW on Lebanon: https://youtu.be/RZuKyIYMSEw

Since i watched it, I understand your comment far better.

Great doco. TFS. Core point @ 26:51, alleges $100B stolen by politicians and bankers from the general public's USD-denominated bank accounts. Head of central bank has USD$300M unexplained wealth in Switzerland. 90% of majority shareholders in Lebanese banks are relatives of politicians.
That's the logical reason the govt is not allowing banks to collapse, and float the currency - it would destroy banks overnight
I saw that one too, just a few days before the event. Really eye opening. DW Documentary may be the best Youtube channel, bar none. Another on Chinese zero Covid was equally eye opening.
>> No, people can't make wire transfers anymore. All bank accounts are frozen

This is only true for old funds (precrisis). However, you can wire any "fresh money", AKA funds put in a lebanese bank from a foreign bank

>>The local currency collapsed, lost more than 90% of its value.... they play money conversion tricks

'Lost value' as measured in the black market float. The peg has been fixed for decades and its never floated freely. In fact, banks are giving you the official central bank conversion rate, which is awful and benefits banks (which is why it was never changed)

>> because his father (and some people said his child as well) were in the hospital

This is not true.

>> Why is this all happening? Bad economic and financial policies for 40 years, rampant corruption

No. This is happening because the federal govt issued sovereign debt that was primarily purchased by local lebanese banks, using depositors money. The government budget was chronically in deficit, with exoenses exceeding taxes for decades, so the govt resorted to pay its debt with more debt. Finally they run out of other people's money to keep buying debt, the govt couldnt raise taxes to pay (remember the laughable WhatsApp msg tax??), so govt could not pay banks, thus banks couldn't pay people, so people's cash was turned out to be fake numbers stuck in a bank screen. Banks have since refused to lose money (insolvency really) on their govt debt purchases, so the bank holiday ensued.

Its important that we spell this out because to put a face to Lebanons predicament. There was no 'corruption' vodoo. Its just debt.

The only differences between USA and Lebanon are Lebanon's gdp/debt ratio is higher , and USA quick ratio (interest expense/tax collection) is better vs Lebanon.

It was bad financial policy to peg the Lira to the Dollar. It should have been free so that the exchange rate reflect its true value. The lifestyle with all the things you could buy in the country since the 90s at the official 1,500 LBP rate was a big lie; things should have been more expensive.

It was bad economic policy to ignore agriculture and industry, and make everything about tourism and services. So many imports could have been produced locally but weren't. E.g. as it became evidently clear when people couldn't find things like cheese and milk to buy anymore.

> There was no 'corruption' vodoo. Its just debt.

Debt that was spent to do nothing, to build nothing, but to fill the pockets of politicians and their cronies. Through 10 levels of contractors who fix nothing, to 100K new government jobs given in one year to people who don't even know where their offices are...

There was about 80B dollars lost only in the Ministry of Energy, presumably spent to get electricity to people, all now unaccounted for and still no electricity.... Politicians are billionaires, and only their cronies can get the important jobs and the big projects. And on and on...

Yes, there was rampant corruption. Still is. And it had a lot to do with the crisis.

Having the global reserve currency is a pretty big difference too. The base economy of the Lebanese government is Lebanon, the base economy of the US government is the world.

  > He came back with a gun
How easy is it for the common citizen to acquire a firearm in Lebanon? I believe that this man came back with a pistol, which ostensibly would be harder to come across than e.g. a hunting rifle, no?
Nowadays to buy one would be expensive, a black market.

But there is a defensive gun in every house in Lebanon. Some regions more than others. It's part of the history and, in a way, the culture.

There is no "random mass shootings" problem though. Innocent gun victims die in other ways, like stray bullets from celebrations in weddings and in speeches of political leaders, or the casual skirmish between the followers of two opposing political factions!

‘Celebrations’ like New Years in Los Angeles have the same danger
I see, thanks.
Very easy.
> as it turns out by just spending the money that people deposited in the banks. And it's all gone now.

Is it that or was it a run on the bank (catalyzed by a currency collapse) which wasn't sustainable because of fractional reserve banking?

The run on the banks was an effect, not the cause.

So in the 1990s, after the country came out of a 2-decade civil war, the government adopted a policy of fixing the currency against the U.S. dollar. So regardless of the economic happenings, the conversion rate from LBP to USD was fixed.

But the economy was not really producing enough. It was mainly focused on tourism, which kept taking hits due to political instability. Too much imports, very little exports, but the currency was kept fixed.

This imbalance was sustained by the government borrowing from the central bank and the banks. They kept lending the government, even though it was clear that the money wasn't coming back.

Some of the money was being spent to support imports and big projects. But most of it was being siphoned away by corrupt politicians; which was pretty much all politicians.

After about 25 years, most of the money ran out. The depositors' money.

So what did the banks do? They started offering higher interest rates to attract foreign deposits. We're talking 10% or 15% interest rates. And they used those new deposits to support the continuing needs to lend the government. Incurring more debt to pay the previous debt.

That was essentially a Ponzi scheme, and the final tailspin began. Crash.

This is a classic tale of imbalanced trade resulting in a debt trap, the moment debts become unpayable, the government has no choice but to borrow money for interest payment, which mean interest starts fueling inflation and since more inflation means higher interest rates, the government will have to borrow more and more, leading to hyperinflation. If the government cut interest payments to zero, it would actually stop the hyper inflation assuming that the government pursues austerity and tight monetary policy afterwards. Any negative effects of austerity can then be countered by lowering the interest rate below zero.

What people don't seem to understand though is that it is easy for a developed country to refuse to import products from a developing country, which in turn makes this a structural problem in the global economy rather than a failing of any particular politician.

If I may ask, did the tragic explosion in Beirut back in 2020 have a significant long lasting impact that contributed to the collapse or what it about this bad prior to that as well?
The crisis had already started.

The explosion came in a really bad time, and made things quite worse. Other than the destruction of half the capital, it also closed the main port for trade. And the tragedy pushed more people to lose hope and leave.

So did the pandemic. Salt to the wound, as people were unable to travel anymore (to get to their jobs, as most of the jobs are abroad).

So did the Syrian refugee crisis due to Syria's war (right next to the border). Lebanon has about 30% of its current population made of Syrian refugees, so there is less resources to go around for everyone. No country in a perfect economy could support that much influx of refugees at once.

When it rained, it poured!

Lebanon crisis started on late 2019.

The explosion and COVID acted as a double tap kill shot

One cannot imagine the level of misery created by both events. Its a country that went from Greek standards to scrapping by in true Somalia-level collapse

Your description sounds like he robbed the bank to me.
I think the point you’re making is that he used violence to coerce the bank.

To OP’s point, he was only asking for his own money back, whereas a robbery is trying to take someone else’s money. I guess it all depends on the bank agreement and procedures during a bank run or a default. Sure, you get a statement that says you’re credited with $210k, but you don’t actually own that much money anymore if the bank lost some of it and can’t pay everyone their full balance.

robbery means your are taking something that doesn't belong to you. So the bank has robbed him.
Robbery also includes threat of violence, or actual violence.
It doesn't Have to include threats of violence or acts of violence: It simply usually does.

It does Always include theft of goods, though. This man wasn't stealing things, but rather trying to get his own cash. Despite the violence, this wasn't robbery.

so does assault and battery, but they are both separate and distinct offenses
Closer: The bank is insolvent.
> Why is this all happening? Bad economic and financial policies for 40 years, rampant corruption. The economy was unproductive, but they kept the local currency subsidized, as it turns out by just spending the money that people deposited in the banks. And it's all gone now.

I can see the future of Turkey right in this paragraph.

> … they kept the local currency subsidized … by just spending the money that people deposited in the banks.

Daniel Amerman argues that something like this happened in the USA to fund the federal stimulus payments during the 2020 pandemic lockdowns.

http://danielamerman.com/va/HollowOutOne.html :

> There are many people who are convinced that it was all "money printing". … there was indeed some money printing going on - but it accounted for less than 10% of the new money creation during the crisis.

> The facts are that the overwhelming majority of the new money - came right out of our bank accounts. Using the Federal Reserve as its intermediary, the U.S. government reached into the bank accounts of the nation, took out trillions of dollars, and then sent those dollars back out to the nation in redistributed form.

That is the whole point of “printing money”. It takes value away from the money in bank accounts. It is used to forcibly redistribute money into the economy during a down turn when people would rather not spend it. If you have 100 “pie tokens” and then create an extra 900, there’s still only a single pie to go around.

Of course this targets middle class and poor people because the rich don’t keep money in a bank, they keep it in assets. At least, not enough to materially affect them.

>Of course this targets middle class and poor people because the rich don’t keep money in a bank, they keep it in assets.

This is a classic internet myth. The rich have more of everything. They have more houses, more cars, more yachts, more stocks, more bonds and obviously more money.

The idea that the wealthy exclusively hold assets is such an obvious lie, first of all, the rich keep 10% of their wealth in liquid assets that means money as a general rule of thumb for the sake of speculation. Second, as interest rates go below liquidity preference but at least zero, people start holding a bigger and bigger portion of their wealth in liquid assets. During the pandemic 40% or more of the money held at banks was in demand deposits, aka checking accounts, hundreds of billions of liquidity, enough to basically make any bank insolvent with the snap of a finger, hence the need for excessive amounts of QE even though banks don't want to lend out any more money.

For some strange reason people parrot this and then think that the poor have all the money despite the fact that most of them are in debt and most rich people have millions or hundreds of millions in their bank accounts and even more in assets. When you argue for a negative interest rate, people are going to shout how this ruins poor people because they don't have any stocks and most of their savings are held liquid when that is completely wrong, most poor people's wealth is their own body and the income it lets them derive from work, which is almost entirely illiquid. What poor people actually need is an opportunity to use their most prized asset and a negative interest rate doesn't harm them in any shape or form. It is only the rich that keep millions in checking accounts that really feel the pain.

> of course they need to make an example out of him.

The precedence was set, people who are on the edge and have nothing to lose now know, they themselves may land in jail but at least they can help their loved ones..

In your view what forces are keeping the economic situation as is?
What's keeping the economic situation from freefalling even deeper into the abyss, is the money of the diaspora. Expats send back money to support their families. That's the lifeline, without which there would be famine.

What's keeping the economic situation from coming back up, is exactly what brought it down in the first place:

It's the complete failure of the state, with a political system that is rotten with power-hungry warlords, old and new, who won't let go. A people who remains divided because every few decades a faction decides it's so powerful now that it's its prerogative to hijack the country's destiny by use of force... And some big countries with huge influences (follower factions), using Lebanon as a card on their negotiating tables - some even see the situation as "chemothraphy to remove a cancer", and don't mind it staying. (Pardon the vagueness; the politics is quite complicated and not possible to give a clearer picture than this in a brief comment).

If with a magic wand all of those problems disappeared, and a new government materializes with full support from everyone to start fixes and reforms, it is estimated that it would take at least 10 years to bring the economy back to a healthy state.

But 3 years into the crisis and the governments since then still have not provided a single plan to come out of it. Just grandstanding, mutual accusations, deadlocks, hindering investigations, etc.

They always hope that some rich country would want to help and make big investments. But those countries, and world organizations, rightfully, do not trust the country's consecutive governments anymore because no reforms have been made and it's still the wild west of corruption.

The biggest problem is that those 3 years have witnessed the largest brain drain in the history of the country. Most doctors and nurses left; engineers, technicians, scientists, students, you name it. Resilient people who had seen everything and stayed, but there's always an edge too far.

Read the executive summary here: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/37824

In short, a complex confessional system of government run by corrupt tribal leaders.

> This person did not "rob" the bank. He tried asking the bank for money

Right so if I ask you nicely to donate with an AK-47 and I hold your family hostage, you are gonna make the same claim?

He was asking for 15% of his own money, and not for a donation. To save a sick family member in an emergency.

If you come to me asking for your own money in such a situation, and I say - hard luck, I can't give them to you because I only have 5 ferraris now instead of 100 ferraris, and I kick you out humiliated... yeah I'd expect you to, at some point, snap!

It's easy to argue from an ivory tower, in a just society. But harder to imagine what it would be like when there's no justice anymore and there is no rule of law protecting your rights.

I think it's a moral question, and everyone will see this question from their viewpoint. Which is fair.

He withdrew money from his own account. In order to do so, he coerced the bank teller at gunpoint.

It's some sort of violent crime, but not robbery.

If I was holding on to your property which belongs to you and refusing to give it to you, then I think you'd be entirely within your rights to use an AK-47 for persuasion.
The money you deposit into a bank is not yours, it’s the bank’s, and they have a corresponding liability to you.
That completely violates the idea of demand deposits whose entire purpose is to be immediately available.
I wonder if your family feels similarly
If someone is keeping me hostage so that a third party does something (say, releasing others from jail) - I might be a hostage, but the incident still isn't robbery.

You have to steal stuff for it to be robbery.

So yes, I'll make the same claim. There is no point in saying that I was a hostage in a robbery if I was in a hostage situation for different reasons.

You seem to have missed the bit where he asked the bank for his own money
completely unrelated here but is banking secrecy a thing in Lebanon? As in an anonymous numbered account.
It used to be a big thing; a major attraction for international depositors.

But it's beginning to be removed under the current situation, because they want to disallow (criminalize) people from transferring their money out of the country (to protect it)

well that's unfortunate. I wish you the best with the present circumstances.
It was, but 9-11 started a major reversal in that, which got worse as terrorism financing became a target for the us

I think Lebanon now reports all transactions to the US so secrecy veil has been finished for some time.

> Why is this all happening?

It's happening because people use banks to store their wealth instead of doing self-custody.

Cyprus, Argentina, various east block countries in the 80's, etc... How much more proof do you need?

Storing your wealth in a Bank is a bad move, independently of the country you live in, and especially in 2022 where you earn exactly zero on interests in most places.

Lebanon is just an extreme example of why it's a bad move.

Self custody of precious metals is expensive.

Self Custody of digital currencies is tricky in different ways. What if you forget your 12 words seed phrase? Then your life savings are gone as well..

For background on Lebanon: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoin-should-be-the-sa...