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Inside Putin's Circle (ft.com)
214 points by mayiplease 1554 days ago
17 comments

> These men are known in Russia as the “siloviki” — “men of force”, or perhaps even, in the Irish phrase, “hard men”.

Just to clarify. The word "siloviki" made from "силовые структуры", which may be translated literally as "structures of force", or less literally but preserving some meaning "armed organizations" (maybe "armed forces", but I think that in English "armed forces" doesn't include the likes of police and security guards). It refers to police, military or any other organization with a dress code that requires a gun.

"siloviki" is literally a "men of power" ("sila" in Russian is "power" in English) => these include the FSB (an FBI equivalent, or the ex-KGB in practice) and MVD (the police). That's it.
Good news - as result of Ukraine war failure these lowlifes are starting to eat each other - the director of foreign intelligence of FSB has just got arrested for "embezzling money intended for sabotage and gathering of intelligence in Ukraine and for providing false information about political situation in Ukraine" :)

From https://www.thedailybeast.com/now-russia-is-bombing-western-... :

"Meanwhile, panic appears to be setting in within Putin’s inner circle, with the Russian leader allegedly firing eight generals and putting the head of his FSB spy arm Sergei Beseda and his deputy under house arrest"

Russian: https://meduza.io/news/2022/03/11/zhurnalist-andrey-soldatov...

All that while 3 generals have already been killed in Ukraine in addition to uncounted number of officers with no major military success. That is bound to cause "friction" between various arms of the "siloviki". There is also a large fight brewing between FSB and Chechens (they have been in "cold war" state) as large convoy of Chechen forces in Ukraine was completely destroyed by Ukrainians based on information that seems to had been leaked by FSB.

Putin surrounded himself with yes men. These people are afraid to displease Putin and end up taking shortcuts left and right to give him what he wants. Only fear is keeping this system from crumbling, they’re all afraid of eachother.

“ Soldierov told the British Times that it could well be that the FSB had realistic knowledge of the situation in Ukraine - the only question was what was passed on to Putin.

"The problem lies in the fact that it is often risky for those responsible to tell Putin things that he doesn't want to hear," Soldierov said.”

[0] https://newsrnd.com/news/2022-03-11-putin-is-said-to-have-pu...

Anybody who watched just some Ukrainian TV (I like Zelensky's humor production) in recent years knew it, no need for whole spy agency. Of course they told Putin what he wanted to hear.
"Putin surrounded himself with yes men." This is an interesting article from an alledged fsb employee that backs that statement. https://noteplan.co/n/3D073DDB-CB0F-4ABC-BC93-01A94141445B
“sila” is strength, not power. Power is “vlast.”
Are you sure about that? I know Google Translate says "vlast" but I speak a Slavic language and "vlast" means motherhood/home in my language. Could be just the online translation not being accurate?
Tons of "false friends" between Slavic languages. E.g. "urod" could mean "beauty" in some and "freak" in others. In Russian "sila" means primarily "force" or "strength" and in the context of "siloviki" it refers to the armed forces and law enforcement as the top of this thread states.
> Google Translate

Thanks for the laugh. An automated translation tools, especially dumbed down online ones, never work right because they don't have a context or a means to provide it.

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B0#Russ...

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/%D0%B2%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%8...

In Polish, Sila is strength as well.
Technically (physically) it's force (as in SI's F).
He's right, for the most part. I think the Czech cognate would be vláda, with a somewhat closer meaning.
I think "force" would be the best translation in this context.
> ...The word "siloviki" made from "силовые структуры", which may be translated literally as "structures of force"...

"siloviki" => members/heads of the law enforcement and security agencies, read "enforcers". But "hard men" passes the forceful connotation well enough.

yes, definitely not "hard men", more like what you described, except various intelligence agencies who don't always wear a gun, are also included.
Well, FSB is an intelligence agency, and they wear guns or at least have a license to wear gun.

Though I cannot argue. I rely on my intuitive knowledge of Russian which is hard to use as a rational argument. This knowledge tells me that "силовые структуры"/"structures of force" are organizations that use force to solve problems. And I think that all of them wear guns. But I may be wrong with that last statement, and moreover language is changing, so the generally accepted meaning of the word can differ from what I had learnt in my childhood.

> FSB is an intelligence agency,

They are also a military branch and have military ranks, although they don't wear uniforms. The FSB acts like a combination of FBI, a border patrol and secret police.

They are also the group allowed to carry out an assassination on foreign soil (according to Russian law), although they are not allowed to authorize such a mission on their own.

> FSB is an intelligence agency

It is a security agency, a.k.a. the “secret police.” (It does, of course, spy on the populace.)

Basically the Stasi of Russia, no?
FSB is former KGB, so indeed it is Stasi, but KGB may be even more familiar name from those times.
They are, in fact, what the Stasi were modeled after.
We get what you are trying to say, but people carry guns, they don't wear guns.
Gun carry (or more specific open or concealed carry) is the more popular phrase, due to the popularity of EDC (every day carry) as a phrase covering everything from guns to knives to keychains; however, "wear" is not a linguistic mistake, but an alternative to "carry".

"Wear" differentiates from things that you carry in your hands or pockets or a bag. Things that are part of your dress, like watches, ties, and handguns in holsters, are more "worn" than "carried", though it could be either.

Pedantry that isn't needed. Offering such things is unneeded unless someone is asking for better wording.
What were you hoping the readers of your comment would gain from your comment?

Apologies if this comes off abrasively. This is a genuine question that thought to myself when I read your comment. I can't think of a better way to phrase it.

Edification. Nobody says "wear a gun". It doesn't sound right. Was assuming the commenter was a non-native english speaker and was helping him out.
I'm a native english speaker and I think you're mistaken. Both are correct. "Wear a gun" is less common but carries an important distinction.

I like this usage right here:

> A gun holster is an accessory which is designed to allow someone to wear a gun on his or her body.

https://www.wise-geek.com/what-is-a-gun-holster.htm

I’m a native U.S. English speaker and I didn’t think twice about “wear a gun”. People absolutely say that. It’s not even pedantically incorrect:

2 (b) to carry on the person; wear a sword

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/wear

https://www.google.com/search?q=%22Wearing+a+gun%22&tbm=bks

> Nobody says "wear a gun". It doesn't sound right.

Native speaker, I have heard other native speakers say (or seen them write) “wear a gun” quite a bit. “Carry” seems to be more currently common, but far from exclusive.

"Carry a gun" ngram frequency:

https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=carry+a+gun&ye...

"Wear a gun":

https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=wear+a+gun&yea...

Shorter: "Carry" is about twice as popular as "wear".

Learning a nuance of the English language that non-native speakers may lack (and be curious to learn)?
Right, in English "wear" generally means something you can "put on" and you can't "put a gun on" either.

Although you can put on a holster. ;-)

Although, in this case specifically, "wear a gun" is pretty common place and doesn't sound out if place at all.

I think this may come down to regional dialect differences, but it doesn't make this pedant look good (and I generally love pedants.)

"other organization with a dress code that requires a gun" ⇒ mafia.
Not all mafia have dress code. Some do, but it is not norm or anything.
A dress code could require wearing a gun (i. e. wearing both a gun and a holster - when someone puts a vest on you say they're wearing a vest even if the vest only touches the shirt - ditto shoes and long socks) and nothing else and it would still be a dress code. I would even say that a policy that you can wear anything is a dress code in the same way the unlicense is a license.

I think that undercover or plainclothes in most cases has enough rules that it constitutes a dress code, even if you think a dress code needs to have rules about more than one article of clothing to be considered a dress code.

Afaik, mafia does not require gun and holster on you typically. Plus, in situation where you have to have one, it is closer to requirement to have a tool with you then dress code.

I don't understand why the need to twist mafia into dress code group. Russian mafia is know entity, so is albanian one. Ukraine mafia exists too. It is just that, dress code is not what would be associated with them.

Point taken. I retract my statements. I think it is possible to have a dress code for under cover policing. I guess the only thing left is that I think that a dress code is not the same as a uniform, and that an undercover operation could have a dress code similar to a nightclub, where there are rules but no specific products that have to be worn.
The Irish term “hard man” is more of a meaning about a persons spirit/ attitude to certain things. It does mean someone you don’t want to mess with or in fact have any sort of dealings with. (unless you can equivalently “nullify” their attitude and there’s only one thing usually that can nullify a “hard man”… and this the cycle begins.
> other organization with a dress code that requires a gun

Sounds a lot like organized crime, is it supposed to have that undertone?

Policemen wear guns, and it doesn't sound like an organized crime.

The root of the word "siloviki" is "sila", which means "force". And it is about using force in order to perform their job. Like policemen do. Or security guards. Or soldiers.

And it is not used to refer to crime activities. They also use force, but they are not "siloviki".

Force or power was how I see the translation. These are people using their force or power to their own agenda. It's a useful name IMHO
In some places, in theory, the police use consent of the overwhelming majority to do their job.
That is merely a pleasant sounding fiction perpetuated by those with wealth and power.
> Sounds a lot like organized crime, is it supposed to have that undertone?

As does "Department of Homeland Security". That was the first federal agency named that way, and prior to that people would have thought that sort of naming to be associated with the Stassi or a totalitarian regime. I suppose it is commonplace now.

"Federal Bureau of Investigation" or "Secret Service" aren't particularly friendly sounding names either...
Friendly sounding to whom?
>is it supposed to have that undertone?

nope. the 2nd word means "structures" and it implies part of the state.

> other organization with a dress code that requires a gun

No, that sounds like any armed forces, police force, the secret service, etc.

or mercenaries/"private security"
Unconscious bias at work. Russians aren't mostly mobsters wearing Adidas track suits, despite what you see on TV and in movies.
„ Ukraine’s place in this doctrine was accurately summed up by former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski: “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.” The Russian establishment entirely agrees.“

This statement about Ukraine was presented by Brezezinski without any proof. In fact he just copied that idea from 19th century British geopolitics, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_Hist....

This theory was already controversial in 19th century, but in 21st century it is completely absurd. If you want to be an empire nowadays, you don‘t need a huge Black Sea fleet or a huge amount of land. You need a very strong economy. But occupying Ukraine will not help Russia accomplishing that.

It is absurd, that the Russian elite believes into a theory written by an American, which was originally proposed by the British in the 19th century to explain why they need to fight the Russian empire in the Crimean War of 1853.

I’ve been a paid subscriber of FT for years. It’s horrifically expensive and worth every penny.
I had to check pricing after reading your comment. $375/year! That sounds crazy.
Does a dollar a day sound more affordable? Just read the news over a cup of home-brewed coffee instead of getting a take-out, and you should easily break even. :)
If I'm going out to get my avocado toast anyway, it only makes sense to get the coffee with it since I'm right there. Maybe they should let me round up my change to get the day's FT news with my coffee at Starbucks instead.
Not an entirely bad idea.
They regularly have some deals going around. ft.com/weekendpodcast would also show you some deals. I pay around $80 a quarter. Like OP, worth every penny and it’s much more than just a financial newspaper.

I get WSJ through work and NYT/WaPo are all super cheap. I’ve just never found the quality of FT. So I decided to pay for it. Another publication I recommend is The Economist.

yeah it sure is not a lot.. we waste that without thinking usually
For me, no it doesn't.
New York Times is around $200. The Economist is something north of $100. So the FT is on the high side but hardly out of the ballpark.
Bloomberg is even more at $415, and that's just the baby bloomberg! I pay for it and think it's worth it too.
That's cheap compared to the Bloomberg terminal. High quality news is not free (news is not necessarily the same as journalism).
I was a subscriber for ten years, but gave up on them over mediocre coverage of important issues in the US and East Asia, about which I had some knowledge. Relying on their reporting risked costing me money in my investment decisions.
Indeed. FT used to be a must-read 15 years ago with investigative journalism and decent counterpoints on any issue. Now it's mostly one-sided opinion with little more information than you can read everywhere else. It's very sad.
I feel like everything is this way nowadays.

Apparently the only real news left is embassy cables.

This sounds like an instance of the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect. At the end of the day, it’s still journalism.
Do you have an opinion on Asia.Nikkei.com?
Wasn't asked but wanted to chime in as well: I think they share some of the content now that the FT is owned by Nikkei. I notice some Nikkei bylines in the FT from time to time.

For the record, I find the East Asia (and Europe) coverage decent. It's their US section that I'd say is in dire need of an improvement. Overall, a lot boils down to individual correspondents/writers: some are great while others not so much and thus best skipped (although the comments can also provide a lot of insight if the topic as such is interesting).

Isn't that the same news organization now?
Well the same ownership, Nikkei.
One of the perks of Google is a free FT subscription, as it were
Can read every article on archive.is. And I still don't think they should be posted here.
Strangely, one figure is notably omitted from the "exposé" is Dmitry Medvedev. Who is none other than the former president, and still acting member of the current "politbureau"...

Who knows, maybe he is the "one senior official" mentioned as being the author's source on some of the topics. Protect your sources!

Evaluation of Russia by Finnish Intelligence Colonel (subtitles)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kF9KretXqJw

I think this is something you should watch if you are interested in how russia works. It's very straight talk and clarified russian mindset a lot for me at least.

Also a long and great Twitter thread: https://nitter.net/kamilkazani/status/1501360272442896388
He has a number of good threads.
He mixes evidence with unsupported opinions and just-so stories though.
Yeah I noticed that too. Glosses over things and doesn't explain them. Leaves you asking for sources and more proof.
Enjoying the notion of cartels as protostates. Makes a lot of sense!
Interesting bits:

* “the Russians have the ability to expect and endure a tremendous amount of suffering”.. “they have made suffering a virtue”

* “global recession is not really a problem to Russia since they are in a recession all the time anyway”

Kind of suggestive that what's happening won't be over anytime soon.

What do you expect, really? Russians live in feudalism, only with modern technology. They haven't known anything other than totalitarian regimes, and when they had a little democracy after '91, it all fell apart for most of them. Maybe all of the interested parties should read a bit of Russian literature? If you want shortcuts, just read Vladimir Sorokin, but it's really more nuanced. The thing about suffering is also very enshrined in the Eastern Orthodox mindset.
Watching this, I felt it all was a bit reductionist. But then again, if it does seem to explain how things work there...
>Even otherwise calm and reasonable members of the Russian establishment have snarled with fury when I have dared to suggest in conversation that it might be better for Russia itself to let Ukraine go.

This all seems a bit unfortunate. I mean there are many examples of similar countries next to each other - US/Canada, France/Belgium, maybe even England/Scotland and it's no really tragedy to let the less powerful one do it's own thing and be independent if it wants. In England in the past we've made efforts to control Ireland and it's caused a bunch of problems compared to if we had just let the thing go without the Donbass / Northern Ireland stuff.

Another interesting opinion piece in NYT on this subject https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/10/opinion/putin-russia-ukra...
"I believe, however, that Putin and the siloviki (though not many in the wider elites) welcome this isolation [from the west]. They are becoming impressed with the Chinese model: a tremendously dynamic economy, a disciplined society and a growing military superpower ruled over with iron control by a hereditary elite that combines huge wealth with deep patriotism, promoting the idea of China as a separate and superior civilisation."

Money quote.

The idea of a centralised planned state fell with the USSR, and it was widely argued that it fell _because_ of central planning. China is becoming a counter-example for the people who have always been fond of the idea of having a state ruled by an "elite", with the perception that democracy is fragile and doesn't work for long-term (more than a 4/5 years mandate) planning.
The world changed in a very significant way over the last 70 years. Even more so over the last 20 years. It may very well end up that the Information Age has tipped the scales and our large meandering decentralized democracies are no longer the superior model they were back when it took 4 weeks to get a letter from New York City to Washington DC. Now it’s a synchronous call with satellite footage of every inch of the earth. It may very be that centralized planned economies are now the superior model and only the test of time will unveil which is true.

I’ve lost a bit of sleep wondering about this over the years.

I wouldn’t lose sleep.

Central planning hasn’t been “hard to implement” its been a absolute disaster not just due to information scarcity, but for the same reason massive organizations in free markets rot from within.

Monoculture kills its host, nothing to do with communication speed.
> It may very well end up that the Information Age has tipped the scales and our large meandering decentralized democracies are no longer the superior model they were back when it took 4 weeks to get a letter from New York City to Washington DC.

There are more and less (de)centralized democracies. The US (and others) are formed from federated regional governments:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federalism

But there are unitary states (France, Spain) as well:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unitary_state

As for democracies: one problem with non-democracies is negative feedback can be difficult. If things are headed in a bad direction, it can be hard to get that message through to those in charge if they lean autocratic and become isolated from reality. Folks are afraid to bear bad news because messenger get shot (proverbially or literally).

> the Information Age has tipped the scales and our large meandering decentralized democracies are no longer the superior model they were back when it took 4 weeks to get a letter from New York City to Washington DC

Telegraphs were used in the 1840s [1]. They went transatlantic in the 1850s [2]. The game change is not in modern autocracies being better at planning. It's in surveillance. What took the KGB and Stasi armies of informants filling cabinets of index cards can now be run out of a single data centre by a small team of loyalists.

The common failure mode of centralized systems, peaceful transitions of power and/or long-run economic power, is thus not addressed. (Founders have a decent record, at least in their early years [3]. But with each subsequent generation, the gap between the stability of monarchies and eccentricity of dictatorships widens. Putin is a first-generation autocrat. Xi is a bit more complicated, though I'd argue the CCP hasn't had power so concentrated since Mao, and China barely limped through that transition.

Maybe the efficiency gains in surveillance and repression will turn what would have been a revolutionary failure into a slow-burn diminishment. Whereas previously a resistance could have festered and grown, today it can be nipped in the bud, preventing the internal power competition that rejuvenates the system.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_telegraph

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transatlantic_telegraph_cable

[3] https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/54717/1/670514403.pd...

The CCP had a power transition model mostly worked out that Xi tore apart. Interesting times ahead there.
On the other hand, the Information Age might for the first time in history enable true democracy, where every political decision can instantaneously be made by the voting populous. (not that farce of a democracy where a highspeed jet is allegedly steered by the binary input of "left" or "right" every four years)
You can technically vote on any little detail but it doesn’t mean you have time to analyse every one of those little details.
> the Information Age might for the first time in history enable true democracy

We’ve had true democracy. It doesn’t work. It careens into majoritarianism while hyperpartisanship tears it apart. The American system balances democracy against oligarchic and monarchic stabilisers. One could argue that our present situation results from forgetting the need for that balance.

Governments can be learning organizations, especially when they have long time horizons and balance agenda with reality. If anything, I think China has shown that central planning can work and is even the envy of Western leaders (see: Canadian PM Trudeau's admiration).

The implicit agreement in China is that in exchange for your freedom, you receive prosperity.

Russia - especially after the West seriously damages their economy - can easily form a similar narrative, especially when the West is being sadistic about it. Nationalize most things now when the equity is dirt-cheap because unwise Western governments have forced the hands of banks, investors, and funds; then privatize things as the new anointed class rises. Key for them will be to reward merit and capability, not just loyalty.

China doesn't have a centrally planned economy though. It certainly has a lot of state intervention, but resources are primarily allocated through market mechanisms.

Much of its industrial policy actually resembles that of democratic states like Korea and Japan.

I'd argue China's experience presents a great argument for a mixed market economy that allows state intervention, while also recognising the importance of markets and decentralised economic coordination.

However, we shouldn't overhype China's progress. The fact of the matter is that China was always destined to become an economic juggernaut given its population size, stability, and resources.

It's just China had been tied down by Mao and his supporters managed to hijack the government for several decades and hindered China's ascent with their whacky policies. We're now seeing it snap back to where it belongs.

China abandoned central planning back in the 80’s.

The current system is more similar to Japan with strong oversight and occasional intervention to nudge the economy towards the right goals.

> democracy is fragile and doesn't work for long-term (more than a 4/5 years mandate) planning

Which is moot, because the USSR planning model also had 5 year plans. Also some European democracies are run by a coalition. See for example the Nederlands and also Germany to a lower degree. It's less efficient in case of armed conflict, but most people are represented in times of peace.

"The Chinese model" is fundamentally underwritten by exporting vast quantities of goods to the West which Putin just blew up any hope of doing.
The CCP is moving away from that, though, and towards an economy driven more by domestic consumption.
Yes, but the success of China was built on an export economy. They're consuming more internally as they become wealthier, but it remains to be seen how smooth that transition will be. There have been many burps already (Evergrande, the banning of crypto mining to prevent wealth flight, etc...).

Turning China into an inward-looking closed market is an idea still, not a recipe.

Correct! Now not to say some basic competency was not there - b/c it was - but trade with west is a major part of their success sort of like Japan kind of presaged for them in the 1980s.
Other than fossil fuels and vodka, what does Russia have to offer the world?
Suicidal novelists of course.
Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat and second-largest exporter of weapons. Ignorant comments like these do nothing to reduce tensions between Russians and the West.
Oops, forgot about wheat -- that's a real concern. I was going to add weapons to my list but it was more along the lines of "consumer oriented" goods.

On the other hand, my comment does diddly squat to our relations. Please go on and explain how I'm contributing to international tensions with my not-fully-informed question.

Can't imagine this war is doing any favors to the Russian arms exporters.
Russian literature, ballet, gymnastics, classical music among other things. Come on, you can't possibly equate a 144M country with gas, vodka or Putin.
Malware, pirate software havens, hacking organizations?
bad examples
But Putin and Co don't seem to have the tools to create a dynamic economy or a disciplined society. They may admire China; they can't follow the pattern.
They're a mafia and a bad one at that. Russia will become a Chinese satellite just like Kazahstan and Mongolia. It was probably going to anyway, but Putin just made sure of that when he attacked Ukraine. At least China had a mechanism for continuation of power, which Russia doesn't appear to have. What happens if Putin dies or is toppled? They'll put the next NATO paranoid FSB boss in charge? Compared to the Gorbachev era USSR they look like a bunch of juveniles playing with nukes they've inherited from their parents.
Agreed. And the reverse ... Russia may talk up china and vice versa but china more likely does that to annoy the west. China cannot see Russia as a going concern or model except for 1-3 year tactical eg. import Russian energy that Europe is buying anymore
We'll see how that works in China in the first serious recession
The "Chinese model" is as old as civilization and has been implemented and collapsed many times in China itself. If Putin establishes a new czarist dynasty in Russia, it will end up just like the last one.
To be fair, so far it seems all empires will fall eventually.
Better read https://sputnikipogrom.com/politics/30301/story-of-faded-lov... (ru)

All the Putinology tries to sell you that the trouble with Putin is entirely subjective. But it's not (that much).

> Explaining his position on NATO, Putin said that Russia is part of European culture. “I can't imagine my own country apart from Europe and the so-called civilized world, so I can hardly imagine NATO as an enemy.

The problem is that the Russian understanding of "civilized" is different from the Western one.

Just look at the "civilized" way he treats his people.

Let's not even talk about the Moscow bombings that got him into power. The "it was an inside job" conspiracy is true, but in Russia, not in USA.

Putin views what he's doing now in Ukraine as a civilized thing to do, Russia was promised things, wronged and now he's solving the problem after warning about it. Like civilized man do.

This is why Russia will never be in NATO. Everybody understands that the Russian bear will lash out after a perceived slight.

There is a great talk about "honor culture" versus "dignity culture". Russia is a "honor culture", the West is a "dignity culture". They don't mix.

I read an incredibly thorough book about Putin a year or so ago, and what stuck with me is how political his career in the KGB was. In those final years of the USSR, everything was in shambles, and any position of power became so through-and-through political. That makes his rise so interesting and frightening. He has been forged in a dark web of covert slush funds, power projection and kompramat. He was obviously very good at that game, and it continues today.

EDIT: The book was "Putin's People" by Catherine Belton

Seems to me like he has lost that and becoming just an angry old man playing with people's lives because he can.
Or, he amassed all the power, and is now wielding it :-\
there's also long interviews from 2017~ on PBS Frontline IIRC, a series called "Putin files"

Julia Ioffe, Masha Gessen

It's partial but has a lot of detail

On the other side there are the Russian friendly views such as Mearsheimer or even Stone.

It's difficult to weigh what is true (even though I'm biased anti aggressor in this case)

I watched both of those interviews yesterday, they are excellent.
It lacks the first hand soviet agent data that the ft article has, which more important in my view. Still better than nothing.
>Russian friendly views such as Mearsheimer

I don't know that I would refer to Professor Mearsheimer's view as pro-Russian, he has plenty of criticism of Putin and the Russian political system in general. But the fact that he has been railing on the likely consequences of our approach for dealing with the Russia/Ukraine situation for years, and been proved right, should make his writing and interviews required for anybody seeking to better understand who we got here.

What would the better approach be? Sorry Ukraine, the Maidan was cute but no, you can not join 'the west'
Well it's at least telling that we're not allowed to refer to that as a coup, isn't it? I mean, what else would we call a revolution where a democratically elected government is removed from power and replaced with one backed by an adversary, which then immediately rewrites the Constitution to put that country in an adversarial foreign policy position to their powerful neighbor?

Is that not a coup? Is that not a recipe for war?

No.

1: Democratically elected stretches reality towards the end. The end was not a free and fair democracy nor free and fair elections.

Yanukovych was an autocrat and stooge. copying many of the same tactics as his protector Putin to stay in power beyond public support: suppressing opposition, faking votes with international orgs deemed un true/not valid election, using his private military to intimidate and suppress.

The people of Ukraine WANT to join the EU and be a part of European trade. Perhaps not all but a vast majority.

That's the crux of Maidan.

Yanukovych said he would sign the economic agreement which had broad support across the country. But did a 180 and ran to Putin (literally and figuratively, he physically fled). If any country was holding a gun it was Russia.

2: It was not a coup. This was not a military take over, decapitation by a 3rd party nation, or middle of the night execution.

He was removed through an act of parliament after IMENSE popular opposition via democratic sentiment/uprising among the people.

Even if that act itself wasn't laid out exactly in their constitution, what came next were legitimate free and fair elections which is indisputable.

People and countries should be free to chart their own future.

To remove themselves from the foot of authoritarianism and to rewrite and reimagine their government towards Democracy, European trade, & freedom.

A bully autocrat & former controlling country shouldn't be allowed to shut down the will and future of tens of millions just because they have a larger army and threaten nuclear war.

That's why I said russian friendly.. it's a subtle topic.
Mearsheimer has been trotted out by so many people that likely never heard of him three weeks ago that it's getting a bit tiring.
Many of us are binge reading history in all directions. But yeah the authority-flooding is exhausting. I mostly mentioned him to balance my comment. I have no idea which is true or not here.
That tends to happen when someone turns out to have accurately predicted the future.
I just want to remind people of 12ft.io to remove paywalls. It works well for most sites.
The bit about welcoming the patriotism of war reminded me of the 'conspiracy theory' that Putin blew up some of his own people in order to consolidate his power.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings

Now, some people believe that, some people don't, but since just before he invaded Ukraine he announced that they were one people, he's literally done the same thing again, blowing up "his own people", for his own political games, but openly.

There really is no question that Putin was behind the bombings. This American Life had a recent episode about them. https://www.thisamericanlife.org/763/transcript
Just like Bush was behind 9/11?
Spend 15 minutes looking into it and decide for yourself. The evidence really is compelling.
That's impressively evil really.
That's a very useful and important article. So that's who Putin talks to. A very small group who share his worldview: It is the manifest destiny of Mother Russia to have an empire in Eastern Europe.

A key point that has emerged from a number of sources is that Putin's crowd has no plan B. This isn't considered by Russia's leadership to be just a military adventure - if it works, great, if it doesn't work, pull back and try something else. It's a must-win operation.

Historically, this sort of thing ends only when the leader is killed.

> Historically, this sort of thing ends only when the leader is killed.

Or Russia wins

They aren’t going to win. Their economy started with noticeable issues and has since been obliterated. Aggression wars against a weak opponent are remarkably expensive and Ukraine has received a significant amount of support (I’d estimate around 20b so far) whereas the ruble and Russian markets (bond, equity, and a large portion of export/import) have been nuked. They are running on fumes in a war that is projected to run for quite some time.
that's not going to happen. When they try to take a NATO country it's over for them. Possibly over for all of us.
It seems like Putin will only surrender after he's expended everything he's got, and among "everything he's got" includes several thousand nuclear missiles...
There are probably many people between Putin and the actual ignitors on ICBM rocket engines. This safety mechanism worked at least once.
>This safety mechanism worked at least once.

Generations ago. In essentially a different, more civilized world.

I'm sure that if they are the last man standing and all of Ukraine is turned into rubble soaked through with blood that they'll declare victory. But it won't amount to much.

Real people with power build they don't destroy. The likes of Putin only know how to kill and how to destroy.

I'm sure that if they are the last man standing and all of Ukraine is turned into rubble soaked through with blood that they'll declare victory.

For Russia, that may be an acceptable outcome. The last century and a half of Russian history has a large number of mass death events.

The phrase "for Russia" seems inappropriate. You mean for Putin. And... maybe? I'm not convinced. Even Stalin had to regularly kill off the people around him to maintain power.
> Real people with power build they don't destroy.

Citation needed.

This sounds nice but it's just a value statement.

> Historically, this sort of thing ends only when the leader is killed.

It can't happen soon enough.

I’m curious, would you have called for the assasination of Bush during the invasion of Iraq or Afghanistan?

Or the American presidents during the massacres in Vietnam?

Curiously Orthodox Christian mysticism creeps in to this sense of destiny as well which is really scary. See:

"Russia’s Menacing Mix of Religion and Nuclear Weapons In the Kremlin, Faith and Force Go Hand in Hand"[1]

Another member of this inner circle not named in this article is Yuri Kovalchuk who's the largest sharedholders in Rossiya Bank in addition to National Media Group. He is a long time friend and advisor to Putin and subscribes to this same Orthodox Christian mystic narrative where Russia needs to save the world from the West.[2]

There's a book by Gary Lachman about this that came out a couple of years ago called:

"The Return of Holy Russia: Apocalyptic History, Mystical Awakening, and the Struggle for the Soul of the World"

[1] https://archive.ph/EeaaG

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/10/opinion/putin-russia-ukra...

Putin finds the support of the Russian Orthodox Church useful, but it's not clear whether he believes in it.
He doesn't need to believe in it though for the narrative to be useful and effective.
> Historically, this sort of thing ends only when the leader is killed.

Sometimes not even then. If the person who takes over is also a true believer in this manifest destiny, it can go on until all the believers in the inner circle die off.

A related Op/Ed piece from yesterday regarding his inner circle and his isolation over the last couple of years:

"How Vladimir Putin Lost Interest in the Present":

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/10/opinion/putin-russia-ukra...

Excellent and thorough piece of writing
can somebody tell me why pretty much any (even random) configuration sounds kind of good?
why the downvotes? I am actually wondering about that?
I assume your comment is accidentally on a wrong thread.