[Animats]

That's a very useful and important article. So that's who Putin talks to. A very small group who share his worldview: It is the manifest destiny of Mother Russia to have an empire in Eastern Europe.

A key point that has emerged from a number of sources is that Putin's crowd has no plan B. This isn't considered by Russia's leadership to be just a military adventure - if it works, great, if it doesn't work, pull back and try something else. It's a must-win operation.

Historically, this sort of thing ends only when the leader is killed.

[worik]

> Historically, this sort of thing ends only when the leader is killed.

Or Russia wins

[mirntyfirty]

They aren’t going to win. Their economy started with noticeable issues and has since been obliterated. Aggression wars against a weak opponent are remarkably expensive and Ukraine has received a significant amount of support (I’d estimate around 20b so far) whereas the ruble and Russian markets (bond, equity, and a large portion of export/import) have been nuked. They are running on fumes in a war that is projected to run for quite some time.

[stjohnswarts]

that's not going to happen. When they try to take a NATO country it's over for them. Possibly over for all of us.

[netsharc]

It seems like Putin will only surrender after he's expended everything he's got, and among "everything he's got" includes several thousand nuclear missiles...

[stickfigure]

There are probably many people between Putin and the actual ignitors on ICBM rocket engines. This safety mechanism worked at least once.

[rnd0]

>This safety mechanism worked at least once.

Generations ago. In essentially a different, more civilized world.

[jacquesm]

I'm sure that if they are the last man standing and all of Ukraine is turned into rubble soaked through with blood that they'll declare victory. But it won't amount to much.

Real people with power build they don't destroy. The likes of Putin only know how to kill and how to destroy.

[Animats]

I'm sure that if they are the last man standing and all of Ukraine is turned into rubble soaked through with blood that they'll declare victory.

For Russia, that may be an acceptable outcome. The last century and a half of Russian history has a large number of mass death events.

[stickfigure]

The phrase "for Russia" seems inappropriate. You mean for Putin. And... maybe? I'm not convinced. Even Stalin had to regularly kill off the people around him to maintain power.

[khazhoux]

> Real people with power build they don't destroy.

Citation needed.

This sounds nice but it's just a value statement.

[jacquesm]

> Historically, this sort of thing ends only when the leader is killed.

It can't happen soon enough.

[Razengan]

I’m curious, would you have called for the assasination of Bush during the invasion of Iraq or Afghanistan?

Or the American presidents during the massacres in Vietnam?

[bogomipz]

Curiously Orthodox Christian mysticism creeps in to this sense of destiny as well which is really scary. See:

"Russia’s Menacing Mix of Religion and Nuclear Weapons In the Kremlin, Faith and Force Go Hand in Hand"[1]

Another member of this inner circle not named in this article is Yuri Kovalchuk who's the largest sharedholders in Rossiya Bank in addition to National Media Group. He is a long time friend and advisor to Putin and subscribes to this same Orthodox Christian mystic narrative where Russia needs to save the world from the West.[2]

There's a book by Gary Lachman about this that came out a couple of years ago called:

"The Return of Holy Russia: Apocalyptic History, Mystical Awakening, and the Struggle for the Soul of the World"

[1] https://archive.ph/EeaaG

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/10/opinion/putin-russia-ukra...

[Animats]

Putin finds the support of the Russian Orthodox Church useful, but it's not clear whether he believes in it.

[bogomipz]

He doesn't need to believe in it though for the narrative to be useful and effective.

[AnimalMuppet]

> Historically, this sort of thing ends only when the leader is killed.

Sometimes not even then. If the person who takes over is also a true believer in this manifest destiny, it can go on until all the believers in the inner circle die off.