[Retric]

Tesla seems overpriced when you look at their Solar/EV/battery sales, on the other hand Toyota is still pushing Hydrogen fuel cells which suggests active mismanagement to many investors.

As far as I am concerned the majority of the auto industry is a dumpster fire of incompetence. I don’t think Tesla is a good investment at this point, but a significant growth premium is perfectly reasonable IMO.

[arcticbull]

Sure a significant growth premium is reasonable, which is why I gave them one when I valued them between $80 and $160 per share.

Without a growth premium they'd be valued at $40.

They're currently valued the same as the entire rest of the auto industry combined. Plus a few utility companies. Plus the battery arm of Panasonic. There's growth premium, then there's fanciful delusions.

[Retric]

> They're currently valued the same as the entire rest of the auto industry combined.

How much did you value the Chinese manufactures in that calculation?

[arcticbull]

Based roughly on this. [1]

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1130533/global-market-va...

[spats1990]

Toyota is not blindly pursuing hydrogen fuel cells in anywhere near the way you suggest. https://www.motortrend.com/news/toyota-battery-bev-hev-solid...

They may have been dragging their feet in the last few years but they are still Toyota. Not to be underestimated.

[RC_ITR]

People seem to forget that until very recently, if there was an electric drivetrain on the road, chances were it was a Prius.

[syshum]

Like Toyota, I am still not convinced that our battery Tech is really there. We are starting to see more and more horror stories about Tesla battery Replacement costs on used vehicles, and recalls from major manufacturers.

The Resell value of battery cars may drop to Zero if very purchase is a $20,000 gamble if you will have have to replace the battery.

Personally I think hydrogen fuel cells is the better long term tech, but more than Toyota will need to adopt it

[Retric]

There are two different issues here. Assuming it’s a random risk you would expect car dealerships to offer some from of insurance/extended battery warranty.

However, if the batteries need to be replaced every say 12 years spending 16,500$ onto replace a 75kWh battery is less than gas prices over that time span. Further the labor is only 2,300 to replace a battery so falling battery prices could easily make that a pricey but expected repair that’s worth doing once.

Of course that’s assuming a full replacement is needed, the other option is to add capacity to adjust for reduced range. A 75kWh battery that lost 40% capacity only needs an additional 30kWh of batteries to be back to full capacity. An initial design leaving a void and appropriate hookups largely solves the problem of battery degradation.

[jodrellblank]

> "Further the labor is only 2,300 to replace a battery"

Why so much? Almost three working days at $100/hour?? Here[1] for example is a video of a Nio ES6 electric car in China with a battery swap station you can book on a smartphone, drive into, and it robotically swaps the discharged battery for a charged one in ~8 minutes, with possibly one person working there dealing with paperwork (of all things).

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bahXXZ6Lxs

[Retric]

Tesla had one car with that option, but currently use their batteries as a structural element to save weight.

Hot swapping batteries is a design choice, but it comes with real trade offs.

[jodrellblank]

https://youtu.be/DPVrraVbEIM?t=82 shows me that removing a Tesla Model 3 battery needs the front and rear seats, center console, and all the carpet and interior bits removed, because there are bolts going down to the battery pack. That explains the price.

(It doesn't explain the "only" $2300!)

[Retric]

I didn’t mean that 2300 was low, rather that labor is often equally or more expensive than the part but in this case it’s (only) 14%. Which means if the battery price drops by half you will see a replacement costs drop to 9,400.

[syshum]

>>if the batteries need to be replaced every say 12 years spending 16,500$ onto replace a 75kWh battery is less than gas prices over that time span.

That is a far too simplistic way to look at the issue, and one that is at odds with how the majority of people budget their lives. So even if technically correct (and I have not done the math to confirm) it has little relvance to the resell value of the car.

Reality does not often matter, for example certain model of cars have become known for being "trash" simply because of a 1% failure rate of a part. Most people will never have the failure but the resell value of that model takes a HUGE impact because of the perception.

If electric vehicles are PERCEIVED by the public as being unreliable past 10 years old, the resell value of older battery electrics will approach zero. You need this resell market to support new sales. The exception to this is normally the "luxury" market which is somewhat insulated by resell value because the owners typically do not care. This is also why most of the battery electrics are in that market.

But if you want to replace the Camry, or the F150, Resell value is Critical as most people only keep their car for 5-6 years, and the typical car is sold 3-4 times in it life.

As it stands right now, the battery powered car needs at least 1 full replacement to get the same life of a typical ICE car. That replacement, is more expensive than an engine for an ICE, and it typically more than the car is worth, that makes these cars a ticking time bomb to most used car purchasers. Even if the cost of gas is more over the 12-15 life. That plays no part in the metric of used car value

[Retric]

You say that yet EV sales and used EV sales aren’t facing that issue. A low mileage 2012 Model S is still worth ~37k, and 2013 are selling around 39k. It’s easy enough to see why, a 250 mile range * 1,000 charge cycles ~= 250,000 miles.

As to the underlying perception, I expect people will see old EV’s as being a great long term investment because they have vastly fewer bits that need to be replaced. People will be talking about slapping a new battery into an EV with 250k miles, and spend less on gas and repairs as you aim for 500k miles. Especially after a few more battery price drops.

[syshum]

Primary reason for that is battery issue has not reached the wider market, Tesla's are still a novelty, and owning one is an aspirational desire for many people, it is not a utilitarian car like a Camry.

Also you talking about a Car, when new in 2012 Dollars was $93,000 (that is $114,000 in today;s dollars), that is an EXTREME deprecation rate.

For comparison lets look at the Most popular vehicle in 2012, the F150. The most expensive F150 that year was the Harley Davidson Edition @ $53,000, That same truck 10 years later sells for $28,000 or 53% of its original value

The Tesla Model S Performance at a Original Price of $93,000 selling for $37,000 or 40% of its original price. Another Key factor here as well that tips this even more to the F150, is that the majority of F150s on the market from 2012 have 150,000+ miles on them, where the majority of 2012 Model S on the market have 1/2 that or less.

The Tesla Resell value is value is already in the tank compared to ICE, and that is with its cult like status symbol. Other Battery vehicles that do not have this cult like status are FAR FAR worse, and Tesla's will at some point see a similar fate if they ever become the next Honda or Toyota

[Retric]

A 9 year old BMW model 7 which ran 74+k new with 78k miles is only 20k, that’s at best retaining 27% of it’s value after 9 years. A 10 year old 150k mile BMW model 7 is down at 15k that’s down to 20% of it’s purchased price.

Depreciation is simply higher on more expensive cars, look at a wider selection of cars and 40% after 10 years is quite good especially on a 100k car. That said anything unusual such as the F150 Harley Davidson you looked at tends to retain it’s value much better.

[dclusin]

A majority of Americans cannot afford an unexpected expense of $1,000, let alone $16,500. The fact that its cheaper than the amount of gas you'd pay over that lifetime is irrelevant considering most Americans are not rich enough to shop comparatively like that. It's expensive to be poor.

[Dylan16807]

> A majority of Americans cannot afford an unexpected expense of $1,000

1. Those statistics typically use a very misleading definition of 'afford'.

2. It would be the exact opposite of unexpected, and even if you procrastinate you just get reduced range and the car keeps working.

And you could probably get a monthly payment plan for an electric car battery.

> The fact that its cheaper than the amount of gas you'd pay over that lifetime is irrelevant considering most Americans are not rich enough to shop comparatively like that. It's expensive to be poor.

You'd pay the new battery money after saving on gas for 12 years. Replacement batteries are not an "expensive to be poor" problem.

[syshum]

>>You'd pay the new battery money after saving on gas for 12 years.

How do you figure? For example lets look at my buying pattern

Some One leases a new Vehicle... 3-4 years later they return it, that is when I come in, I buy a Lease Return almost every time. I keep that for 5-6 years. At which point I sell or trade for another lease return. the car is typically about 9-10 years old at that point. Someone Buys this from me or the dealer then 2 years later is hit with a $16,000-$20,000 bill

People do not normally keep a car for 12 years... So you would not have "saved" for 12 years

>Those statistics typically use a very misleading definition of 'afford'.

It is not really, as it is based on cash savings of a person to incur the expense with out using debt. If we are talking about a $16-20,000 expense on a 12 year old car, it is unlikely anyone will finance that expense has it would exceed the cars resell value. No lender is going to give you a loan to replace the battery. This problem exists today with many hybrids.

[Dylan16807]

> it is based on cash savings of a person to incur the expense with out using debt

When you use debt every day, it doesn't matter very much whether you put an unexpected expense on debt. What matters is how fast you'd pay that off. If it will be gone in a couple months, that's afforded. And that's a lot of people when it comes to sudden hundreds-of-dollars expenses.

> No lender is going to give you a loan to replace the battery.

You can get a loan to buy a car, why not a battery for a car? I expect it to become possible as these things become more common.

> it is unlikely anyone will finance that expense has it would exceed the cars resell value.

Once you put in a new battery pack, won't the value go up a lot?

And basically every new car becomes worth significantly less than the loan value in the first week. This isn't a new problem.

> the car is typically about 9-10 years old at that point. Someone Buys this from me or the dealer then 2 years later is hit with a $16,000-$20,000 bill

If they've only had the car for 2 years then they've barely lost any capacity. Would they even need to replace it so soon?

But if we look at it in simple terms and say the battery is 80% dead, then shouldn't the part of the car's value represented by the battery be reduced by $14k when they buy it? Either way the answer is to consider 80% of a battery as part of the price, just like any other worn out parts a used car might have.