[syshum]

>>if the batteries need to be replaced every say 12 years spending 16,500$ onto replace a 75kWh battery is less than gas prices over that time span.

That is a far too simplistic way to look at the issue, and one that is at odds with how the majority of people budget their lives. So even if technically correct (and I have not done the math to confirm) it has little relvance to the resell value of the car.

Reality does not often matter, for example certain model of cars have become known for being "trash" simply because of a 1% failure rate of a part. Most people will never have the failure but the resell value of that model takes a HUGE impact because of the perception.

If electric vehicles are PERCEIVED by the public as being unreliable past 10 years old, the resell value of older battery electrics will approach zero. You need this resell market to support new sales. The exception to this is normally the "luxury" market which is somewhat insulated by resell value because the owners typically do not care. This is also why most of the battery electrics are in that market.

But if you want to replace the Camry, or the F150, Resell value is Critical as most people only keep their car for 5-6 years, and the typical car is sold 3-4 times in it life.

As it stands right now, the battery powered car needs at least 1 full replacement to get the same life of a typical ICE car. That replacement, is more expensive than an engine for an ICE, and it typically more than the car is worth, that makes these cars a ticking time bomb to most used car purchasers. Even if the cost of gas is more over the 12-15 life. That plays no part in the metric of used car value

[Retric]

You say that yet EV sales and used EV sales aren’t facing that issue. A low mileage 2012 Model S is still worth ~37k, and 2013 are selling around 39k. It’s easy enough to see why, a 250 mile range * 1,000 charge cycles ~= 250,000 miles.

As to the underlying perception, I expect people will see old EV’s as being a great long term investment because they have vastly fewer bits that need to be replaced. People will be talking about slapping a new battery into an EV with 250k miles, and spend less on gas and repairs as you aim for 500k miles. Especially after a few more battery price drops.

[syshum]

Primary reason for that is battery issue has not reached the wider market, Tesla's are still a novelty, and owning one is an aspirational desire for many people, it is not a utilitarian car like a Camry.

Also you talking about a Car, when new in 2012 Dollars was $93,000 (that is $114,000 in today;s dollars), that is an EXTREME deprecation rate.

For comparison lets look at the Most popular vehicle in 2012, the F150. The most expensive F150 that year was the Harley Davidson Edition @ $53,000, That same truck 10 years later sells for $28,000 or 53% of its original value

The Tesla Model S Performance at a Original Price of $93,000 selling for $37,000 or 40% of its original price. Another Key factor here as well that tips this even more to the F150, is that the majority of F150s on the market from 2012 have 150,000+ miles on them, where the majority of 2012 Model S on the market have 1/2 that or less.

The Tesla Resell value is value is already in the tank compared to ICE, and that is with its cult like status symbol. Other Battery vehicles that do not have this cult like status are FAR FAR worse, and Tesla's will at some point see a similar fate if they ever become the next Honda or Toyota

[Retric]

A 9 year old BMW model 7 which ran 74+k new with 78k miles is only 20k, that’s at best retaining 27% of it’s value after 9 years. A 10 year old 150k mile BMW model 7 is down at 15k that’s down to 20% of it’s purchased price.

Depreciation is simply higher on more expensive cars, look at a wider selection of cars and 40% after 10 years is quite good especially on a 100k car. That said anything unusual such as the F150 Harley Davidson you looked at tends to retain it’s value much better.

[syshum]

BMW is hardly the example I would use to defend your stance, BMW are also widely known for their expensive maintenance costs as they age, that is the reason why they are soo poorly valued.

That is the trend Tesla is going towards, and it is not a trend to defend your position that Battery cars can / should replace ICE

The market can not bear every car having a resell value like BMW's

[Retric]

How about Audi? An 2012 A7 prestige with 89k miles is 20k vs a 60k base model MSRP. 33% while better than the BMW is still well below the Tesla.

There isn’t that many companies making 60+k cars to keep tossing stuff out.

[syshum]

This is the problem with your argumentation or rather we seem to be having 2 different conversation

The topic here, I thought, was the problem with Electrics replacing the common car, highlight luxury example is not the point and I am not sure how you believe that refute the idea that batteries will be a liability for resell value

So far you are just tossing out example of vehicle resell with out explaining how or why this refutes my position that selling used electric vehicle will be increasing hard, thus lowering their resell value, if the uncerntiy of battery replacement costs loom in the future buyers mind.

no one is going to buy a 10 year ICE car if they think the engine will need to be replaced in 2 years, like wise no one is going to buy a 10 year old electric car if they think the battery (@$15,000) will need to be replaced in 2 years.

This fact will hurt the electric car adoption, and could / will prevent it from being anything more than a luxury item for rich people, who instead of being able to sell it to a less well off person, will have to sell it for scrap making our waste problem even worse