[Retric]

You say that yet EV sales and used EV sales aren’t facing that issue. A low mileage 2012 Model S is still worth ~37k, and 2013 are selling around 39k. It’s easy enough to see why, a 250 mile range * 1,000 charge cycles ~= 250,000 miles.

As to the underlying perception, I expect people will see old EV’s as being a great long term investment because they have vastly fewer bits that need to be replaced. People will be talking about slapping a new battery into an EV with 250k miles, and spend less on gas and repairs as you aim for 500k miles. Especially after a few more battery price drops.

[syshum]

Primary reason for that is battery issue has not reached the wider market, Tesla's are still a novelty, and owning one is an aspirational desire for many people, it is not a utilitarian car like a Camry.

Also you talking about a Car, when new in 2012 Dollars was $93,000 (that is $114,000 in today;s dollars), that is an EXTREME deprecation rate.

For comparison lets look at the Most popular vehicle in 2012, the F150. The most expensive F150 that year was the Harley Davidson Edition @ $53,000, That same truck 10 years later sells for $28,000 or 53% of its original value

The Tesla Model S Performance at a Original Price of $93,000 selling for $37,000 or 40% of its original price. Another Key factor here as well that tips this even more to the F150, is that the majority of F150s on the market from 2012 have 150,000+ miles on them, where the majority of 2012 Model S on the market have 1/2 that or less.

The Tesla Resell value is value is already in the tank compared to ICE, and that is with its cult like status symbol. Other Battery vehicles that do not have this cult like status are FAR FAR worse, and Tesla's will at some point see a similar fate if they ever become the next Honda or Toyota

[Retric]

A 9 year old BMW model 7 which ran 74+k new with 78k miles is only 20k, that’s at best retaining 27% of it’s value after 9 years. A 10 year old 150k mile BMW model 7 is down at 15k that’s down to 20% of it’s purchased price.

Depreciation is simply higher on more expensive cars, look at a wider selection of cars and 40% after 10 years is quite good especially on a 100k car. That said anything unusual such as the F150 Harley Davidson you looked at tends to retain it’s value much better.

[syshum]

BMW is hardly the example I would use to defend your stance, BMW are also widely known for their expensive maintenance costs as they age, that is the reason why they are soo poorly valued.

That is the trend Tesla is going towards, and it is not a trend to defend your position that Battery cars can / should replace ICE

The market can not bear every car having a resell value like BMW's

[Retric]

How about Audi? An 2012 A7 prestige with 89k miles is 20k vs a 60k base model MSRP. 33% while better than the BMW is still well below the Tesla.

There isn’t that many companies making 60+k cars to keep tossing stuff out.

[syshum]

This is the problem with your argumentation or rather we seem to be having 2 different conversation

The topic here, I thought, was the problem with Electrics replacing the common car, highlight luxury example is not the point and I am not sure how you believe that refute the idea that batteries will be a liability for resell value

So far you are just tossing out example of vehicle resell with out explaining how or why this refutes my position that selling used electric vehicle will be increasing hard, thus lowering their resell value, if the uncerntiy of battery replacement costs loom in the future buyers mind.

no one is going to buy a 10 year ICE car if they think the engine will need to be replaced in 2 years, like wise no one is going to buy a 10 year old electric car if they think the battery (@$15,000) will need to be replaced in 2 years.

This fact will hurt the electric car adoption, and could / will prevent it from being anything more than a luxury item for rich people, who instead of being able to sell it to a less well off person, will have to sell it for scrap making our waste problem even worse

[Retric]

Ok, sure let’s step away from actual data and work in theory.

> lowering resale value, if the uncertainty of battery replacement costs loom in the future buyers mind.

Saying batteries are a liability for resale value is no different than saying engines are a liability for resale value. High mileage cars have lower value than low mileage cars because they face more mechanical issues. The question is just how much.

> no one is going to buy a 10 year old electric car if they think the battery (@$15,000) will need to be replaced in 2 years.

This breaks down you you start running the numbers. Look at it this way, people are going to buy an EV that will last another 5 years before needing a battery at some price let’s call it 15k. Take an otherwise identical car and say it needs a 15k new battery right now is it worth 0$? No it’s worth more than that because after replacing the battery you have a car that’s going to last longer than 5 years. It’s also going to have the full range of a new car etc.

Essentially, it’s only a bad idea to replace the battery when a car with a new battery would be worth less than the cost to replace that battery. Of course the random factor could also play a role, but that’s down to design or manufacturing defects not some inherent issue with EV’s. Put another way some ICE cars had huge issues with head gasket replacement etc, but people singled out specific makes and models with issues rather than saying the ICE was simply an unworkable design.

PS: Saying it needs a replacement at some fixed point isn’t generally true. Battery’s rarely just fail, it’s normally a steady degradation such that someone can say range will be at least X miles for N years if I drive 13k miles per year but someone that doesn’t need as long a range or drives fewer miles could go much longer without replacing the battery. Presumably the market will do some filtering so people with lower range requirements will be getting great deals.