[eloff]

Keep in mind the covid-19 has a myocarditis rate of 1 in 25000 according to this same study. 4x higher than with the second dose of an mRNA vaccine. On the basis of that alone, you're better off taking your chances on the vaccine - and that's not counting all the other risks that come with a covid infection - including death.

[Aerroon]

>On the basis of that alone, you're better off taking your chances on the vaccine

Is it though? I may not be infected by covid and not be subjected to the risk, but if I get the vaccine then I'm definitely subjecting myself to the risk.

x * (1/25000) vs 1.0 * (1/100000)

If the probability of catching covid (x) is less than 25% then the risk of myocarditis would be greater from the vaccine, no?

Edit: what happens when you get the vaccine and then get covid? Do the current figures include that?

[derbOac]

So, here's the worldwide cumulative prevalence of COVID:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-cases-re...

Assuming a world population of 7.75 billion, that puts the estimated prevalence at about 3.5%.

However, that's using confirmed cases. Estimates of actual cases would put it at 4-10 times higher (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd... or https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/06/9645278...).

So that puts it at 14-35%, right around 25%.

Although that's over the last 21 months or so, it means you're more likely than not going to be infected with it in the next few years.

[zzt123]

Keep in mind that boosters are now considered only good for 6 months, so depending on your definition of “the next few years”, you may be exposed to many times more spike protein load via the vaccine route.

Anyways, I have no horse in this race, but I did notice some unusual chest tightness after my 3rd shot very recently - nothing serious though. I’m completely stress-free in life, so it’s not anxiety. Things have been great for me.

[cseleborg]

I haven't seen any evidence so far that this thing won't stick around forever, so personally, I'd estimate anyone's chances of never being infected with SARS-COV-2 to be virtually zero.

[realreality]

Exposure to the virus does not automatically result in developing COVID-19 (the disease). In a healthy person, the innate immune system will neutralize the virus in the mucosal membranes of the nose.

Eventually, most everyone will be exposed. Not everyone will become sick.

[cub-creature]

However, the odds of being infected with SARS-COV-2 every 6 months forever would most likely be virtually zero.

[moonchrome]

But that's assuming all strains have the same risk.

[bigodbiel]

People act like it’s a dichotomy, either covid or the vaccine. The risk assessment should be made considering waning immunity, variants, etc. But no one can call this out without being censored for being anti vax. This is a dangerous precedent we are opening.

[eloff]

Waning immunity is overblown, and while variants might somewhat evade both natural immunity and vaccine immunity, that risk doesn't change the calculus around whether to protect yourself now against the known variants.

These are really anti-vax talking points, attempts to justify an anti-vax position. They're not imaginary concerns, but they also don't justify the former.

I always support talking about things transparently without censorship, period. But at the same time I acknowledge there's a lot of misinformation out there and most people are unable to distinguish what is important and relevant from what is not. Including myself.

[funcDropShadow]

It is true that you might not get Covid-19 any time soon. But depending on where you live the chances might be quite high in the next months. At least that is the conclusion I draw for myself, living in Germany, considering the likely immunity evading behavior of the omicron variant, its growth rate in other countries, and the unwillingness of a lot of people to follow simple hygiene rules and social distancing.

[croes]

It's a little bit more complicated. The severity of the mycarditis from the vaccines and corona differ.

[gjulianm]

Given that COVID seems to be on the path to be endemic, you should consider X to be close to 100%.

[roenxi]

Given the booster programs currently being recommended in Australia, it is entirely possible that I will be getting 3x vaccine doses before being exposed to COVID. 25% chance of getting myocarditis would make the risk comparable to normal COVID for me.

And that is assuming the vaccine is highly effective. There do seem to be questions about that, given the ongoing mutation and variants. I'd still rather get vaccinated, but I do question whether people are being obstinate about seriously discussing the pro- and con- on this topic.

[scotty79]

If you assume that you won't ever get covid, you might assume you'll never get any cold or flu in your life, even asymptomatic ones.

It's not a good assumption unless you are planning to die in about a year for some other reasons.

[Aerroon]

Sure, but EU countries are now discussing limiting the duration of the covid passport to 9 months already. That would mean, at a minimum, an extra shot every 9 months.

[herbst]

Thing is there are many 'colds' and 'flus' and the chance the catch a specific one may isn't that likely depending on where and how you live.

[scotty79]

Does that change anything? Covid is as contagious as any of them and all of them and immunity people gain against covid dimnishes in the matter of months. After few years it may drop to near zero as it is in the case of some other cold viruses.

[antocv]

What is the death rate from COVID-19 for those younger than 40 and healthy that is with no underlying health issues such as immunodeficiency or diabetes?

Seriously asking, its like the modern web has thrown such a question into a kakfaesque hole.

[ImaCake]

My attempt at googling this produces an abundance of answers. They are not the best answers, but they do give some good indications. Here is an ABS article that appears in second place on DuckDuckGo Aust [0]. If you want really solid numbers I suggest you look for research papers. Here is one based on Melbourne’s first wave which we have basically complete information on [1].

In conclusion, its not particularly hard to find this data with a few searches on your favourite search engine.

0. https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/covid-19-mortality-1 1. https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186...

[antocv]

One still has to look through the numbers to see 74% of deaths have underlying issues and connect the dots to "per-age-group" and still interpolate some numbers from that instead of actual statistics on "per age group healthy deaths".

In the data you linked to, the age group 0-59 15 people died, lets say the 74% number which is from all ages, that makes 4 where healthy.

[funcDropShadow]

That depends on many factors. To answer this question you have to consider at least the country you are leaving in. It also depends on your environment and the timing, e.g. when hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid cases, they might discharge a younger person to early from the hospital or don't look deep enough.

If you want to answer this question for your country look at the official government numbers, I assume the CDC has those numbers for the US, the RKI publishes these numbers for Germany, etc. A generic Google search will find the most attention seeking site claiming stuff mildly related to your question.

[antocv]

CDC equivalent does not publish the numbers of deaths without health-issues, we only see total deaths per age group.

Below 40, the official stats say 43 males have died of which are 6 boys below 19 years old. The population is about 10 million. What if those dead had underlying genetic diseases or diabetes or hypertension?

[dTal]

What is the percentage of people who fit that description? I'm concerned that the subtext here is that if Bruce Wayne would likely shrug off Covid, we shouldn't worry about it. But the vast majority of us aren't Bruce Wayne.

Fully a third of Americans are obese, for instance. And why is 40 the cutoff anyway? That's half the population right there. So already you've excluded two thirds of Americans, right from the get-go.

And what percentage of "underlying health issues" are undiagnosed and asymptomatic until a severe challenge comes along - like a heart murmur? It's all very well saying "well I don't have any underlying conditions", but do you really know that?

[jktogjfnn]

It's about 1 in 10000-30000.

That is 33-100 micromorts. You can use this unit to compare with other activities (higher value is more lethal).

Base jumping is 400 micromorts.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort

[martyvis]

Death rate is very low for that age, but I believe "long COVID" rates could be 20% or more - which might severely restrict your life for many months.

[antocv]

Vaccines dont prevent long-covid either, my wife had 2 shots of Moderna and not even 4th month in she lost sense of smell and has still not recovered it 2 months later.

[napier]

Undeniable ratio of benefit albeit one that doesn’t necessarily bode well for the six monthly booster subscription necessary in absence of airborne transmission interrupting NPIs.

[GameOfFrowns]

>doesn’t necessarily bode well for the six monthly booster subscription necessary in absence of airborne transmission interrupting NPIs.

Especially considering that the current booster shots are proven to be quite ineffective against the Delta and even less against the current Omicron mutation. Seemingly all of the risk, with none of the benefit.

[croes]

>Especially considering that the current booster shots are proven to be quite ineffective against the Delta and even less against the current Omicron mutation. Seemingly all of the risk, with none of the benefit.

Quite the opposite. The study in South Africa showed a 70% protection against hospitalisation from Omicron, the level is even higher for Delta.

[scotty79]

Please check the charts at the last lage of this document https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v...

It seems that three doses can drop down your risk of infection below what being previously infected with covid, or even being infected and then vaccinated with two doses can provide.

I think we made a great mistake by not making this vaccine 3 doses from the start.

[uyunte]

> you're better off taking your chances on the vaccine

I hate this kind of advice. It is like nutritional advice. "eat less omega 6", etc. None of it applies to any one person. What if I don't interact with humans and live on an island? What if I am a certain age, etc.

[eloff]

I'd say you're missing the forest for the trees. You'd be hard pressed to come up with a realistic scenario where I would advise you that your odds are indeed better without the vaccine.

[j2bax]

If you live on an island in complete isolation chances are you wouldn’t care too much about general recommendations intended for the majority.

[a_imho]

How is 1:25000 4x higher than 1:10000? Isn't it 2.5x less likely? I guess the parent is referring to this piece of data: 8-12 cases per 100,000 doses.

[ricardobeat]

The 1:10000 number is reported by Australia, for young men only, during the first 7 days, characterized as higher than the average. The 1:25000 number is from the study on the general population.

[a_imho]

Indeed and the context is vaccination for high school kids. I mean, if they are observing some outliers maybe that should be investigated first rather than brushed aside?

[eloff]

The 1:10000 number is not from this study. The highest number in this study was 1:100,000.

[HuwytNashi083]

That's also not counting all the other risks that come with vaccination - including death.

Also that individuals have variable probability of exposure to and infection with the virus, which may be very low, while vaccination carries a 100% 'probability'.

Also that one may reasonably expect to commit to many vaccinations. Australia, where I am, has already financially committed to more than 9 per capita - if they're buying them, I expect they expect to be using them. That's a lot of rolls of the dice.

[nicoburns]

Covid-19 has higher rates of death than vaccines too. It’s also highly transmissible. The probability of exposure is very high unless someone is isolating themselves from society entirely.

[eloff]

> That's also not counting all the other risks that come with vaccination - including death.

All of which are one or more orders of magnitude higher [edit s/than/with] with the virus according to the data, which is excellent now that there are over 6.3 billion vaccine doses administered worldwide.

> Also that individuals have variable probability of exposure to and infection with the virus, which may be very low, while vaccination carries a 100% 'probability'.

Covid is not going anywhere. Over time the probability of being exposed to it approaches 1. The only question is do you want to be vaccinated when that happens?

[funcDropShadow]

> All of which are one or more orders of magnitude higher than the virus according to the data

I assume you mean lower.

[eloff]

Yes, thank you

[croes]

Interesting how you completely ignore the risk of an corona infection and totally underestimates the infection risk. The virus will become endemic so the infection risk is near to 100%. Additonally the virus is neurotrope so late effects are possible.

[consp]

> which may be very low

Looking at the sewage data around here, your low is about 100% as well. There is no place in my country without any exposure so it's just a matter of time.