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by antocv 1655 days ago
What is the death rate from COVID-19 for those younger than 40 and healthy that is with no underlying health issues such as immunodeficiency or diabetes?

Seriously asking, its like the modern web has thrown such a question into a kakfaesque hole.

5 comments

My attempt at googling this produces an abundance of answers. They are not the best answers, but they do give some good indications. Here is an ABS article that appears in second place on DuckDuckGo Aust [0]. If you want really solid numbers I suggest you look for research papers. Here is one based on Melbourne’s first wave which we have basically complete information on [1].

In conclusion, its not particularly hard to find this data with a few searches on your favourite search engine.

0. https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/covid-19-mortality-1 1. https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186...

One still has to look through the numbers to see 74% of deaths have underlying issues and connect the dots to "per-age-group" and still interpolate some numbers from that instead of actual statistics on "per age group healthy deaths".

In the data you linked to, the age group 0-59 15 people died, lets say the 74% number which is from all ages, that makes 4 where healthy.

That depends on many factors. To answer this question you have to consider at least the country you are leaving in. It also depends on your environment and the timing, e.g. when hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid cases, they might discharge a younger person to early from the hospital or don't look deep enough.

If you want to answer this question for your country look at the official government numbers, I assume the CDC has those numbers for the US, the RKI publishes these numbers for Germany, etc. A generic Google search will find the most attention seeking site claiming stuff mildly related to your question.

CDC equivalent does not publish the numbers of deaths without health-issues, we only see total deaths per age group.

Below 40, the official stats say 43 males have died of which are 6 boys below 19 years old. The population is about 10 million. What if those dead had underlying genetic diseases or diabetes or hypertension?

What is the percentage of people who fit that description? I'm concerned that the subtext here is that if Bruce Wayne would likely shrug off Covid, we shouldn't worry about it. But the vast majority of us aren't Bruce Wayne.

Fully a third of Americans are obese, for instance. And why is 40 the cutoff anyway? That's half the population right there. So already you've excluded two thirds of Americans, right from the get-go.

And what percentage of "underlying health issues" are undiagnosed and asymptomatic until a severe challenge comes along - like a heart murmur? It's all very well saying "well I don't have any underlying conditions", but do you really know that?

It's about 1 in 10000-30000.

That is 33-100 micromorts. You can use this unit to compare with other activities (higher value is more lethal).

Base jumping is 400 micromorts.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort

Death rate is very low for that age, but I believe "long COVID" rates could be 20% or more - which might severely restrict your life for many months.
Vaccines dont prevent long-covid either, my wife had 2 shots of Moderna and not even 4th month in she lost sense of smell and has still not recovered it 2 months later.