If this gambit doesn't pan out, they can just return to the status quo, it's not like Apple would ever permanently ban them, nor would they even reneg on the 30%.
So the only loss is the time they're off the store, plus legal. They just need to get this lawsuit started, maybe lose a couple weeks profits from the iOS store, and they've created the possibility of permanently increasing profits by 20%.
They reduced prices on all platforms though. And iOS users aren't 100% of Fortnite purchasers. I haven't yet found a good source but from [0] which says ~$300mm/mo total and ~$30mm/mo iOS it's 10% (higher than I expected tbh). So they lose 100% of iOS revenue and 20% of PC and console revenue from this.
If Epic wins and are allowed to offer alternate IAP for 20% discount, that increase profits for Fortnite on iOS by 10%, but all the other Fortnite platforms lose 20%.
Maybe Epic will raise the virtual prices of Fortnite goods over time to make up for it, eg a skin will be 1500 vbucks instead of 1250. But I'm guessing Epic has larger ambitions, such as making V-bucks systems for all games that use Unreal Engine.
You can bet on it that this is part of a larger game of chess. Certainly not the rebellious resistance fight of an underdog, as it is mostly being presented.
More like cannibalization between several large and ruthless corporations, and mostly because those who should have protected this market from being cornered into its current corrupt state, miserably failed at that (time and again).
Many may be hopeful about the results of this move, which is no doubt part of Epic's strategy. However, I expect that the results will mostly just favor the bottom line of whoever wins this fight. I'm rather convinced that it won't be much of an improvement for end users.
Maybe end users will benefit for a short while after a victory by Epic, until the company decides to "cash in" on their win and end users will (again) get pretty much what they had up till now. Because that is apparently what Epic can charge its users.
I imagine both of them and Apple (and possibly Google) have.
Well we don’t know for sure there’s a very good chance the negotiations have been going on behind the scenes and they finally broke down far enough that Epic decided to pull the trigger and force the issue.
Apple and Google also being prepared doesn't mean much for the final outcome of the case.
Even if Apple and Google have wargamed the move and found out they would definitely lose, would they do anything without first being confronted? I'd bet they wouldn't, because that would be several hundreds of millions in lost revenue. It's better for them to stay quiet, perhaps try to appease under the table those who have deep enough pockets to challenge them (e.g. Amazon), keep milking the cow for as long as possible.
I agree with what you said, but I think you might not have the scale right it's not hundreds of millions of lost revenue, it's many BILLIONS.
In 2019, the App Store had a gross revenue of 54 billion. Apple's cut should be 30% of that, or 16.2 billion.
Multiply that over several decades, and also consider that gross revenue of the App Store is growing at around 10% per year - we are talking about over 200 billion of revenue for Apple over the next decade, minimum.
So the only loss is the time they're off the store, plus legal. They just need to get this lawsuit started, maybe lose a couple weeks profits from the iOS store, and they've created the possibility of permanently increasing profits by 20%.