You linked to the estimate of one scientist. It's stretching things to say "scientific agreement" with the implication that there's a consensus in the narrow band of 60-70% based on a data set of one.
I've seen estimates quite a bit lower than that, like 20%.
Although it is disturbing that 20% is about the lowest estimate I can recall seeing. I don't believe there are many (or any) scientists saying this will be a minor blip that only infects 1% or fewer. And 20% would be devastating, let alone 60-70%.
Sources? It seems far too early and there isn't enough reliable observational data, much less scientific trial data, available for broad "scientific agreement".
Although obviously the accuracy of China's data is in question, it's promising that they were able to get the reproduction rate below 1 pretty quickly. And within Wuhan itself the spreading seems to have slowed with something like 0.6% of the population of 11 million infected.
Not to mention in China outside of Wuhan/Hubei, which have conditions much more similar to most of the rest of the world in having some advanced warning of the virus, the spread seems also to have slowed down at a much much lower infection rate.
Based on this information it's not clear to me where the "40-70% of the world getting infected" idea is coming from, though I've seen a few headlines reporting that too.
Wuhan is your reference? China too? Aren't they putting pretty severe quarantine in Wuhan? Aren't their quarantine outside of Wuhan still quite strong?
The Diamond Princess had a quarantine, and yet the infection reached 706 peoples, in a boat with 3711 peoples. Sure that's "only" 20%, but that seems to me like 40% isn't that far out if we are considering that it's hard to quarantine a whole country.
The timeframe is important too, as long as we don't have developed any vaccine, the only way to develop immunity is by being infected... thus if the virus spread that easily, it's only a question of when will we reach 40-70%, not if.
Yeah I’m in Beijing now and there’s no way most of the world could implement this kind of quarantine. I can’t leave or come back home without presenting a special card at the gate of my apartment complex.
But it’s working, and at this point I’d rather be here than in many other countries.
Professor Christian Drosten from the Charite clinic in Berlin, Germany, estimates the virus could infect up to 70 percent of the world or 5.2 billion people.
He said: “Presumably between 60 and 70 percent of the people will get infected but we don’t know in what timeframe.
“It can be two years or even longer. It will be more problematic if the infections occur in a short amount of time.
“That is why authorities are doing everything to recognise the origin of infections and slow down any further spread of the infection.”
According to Professor Drosten, the coronavirus epidemic could even match the Asian flu pandemic of 1957 and the 1968 flu pandemic, which began in Hong Kong.
In the former case, the Asian flu is estimated to have killed between one and two million people.
Professor Drosten said: “If the whole pandemic process lasts two years, we will manage.
“If it is only a year, it will be much more difficult because many more cases will occur all at the same time.
“The necessary number of beds for patients requiring intensive care unit therapy is difficult to predict.
Presumably between 60 and 70 percent of the people will get infected
Professor Christian Drosten, Charite clinic
“If we don’t do anything now, they may not be enough.”
It's important to know where the 60-70% number comes from. He's basing it off of the evidence that the virus spreads at a ratio of 1:3. So every infected will spread it to 3 others and a pandemonium will only last as long as it can spread to >1 other person. Therefore, if 2/3 (66%) of the population is infected (hence immune), the virus won't be a pandemonium anymore. He's also assuming that nearly everyone will be infected at some point in time.
I've seen estimates quite a bit lower than that, like 20%.
Although it is disturbing that 20% is about the lowest estimate I can recall seeing. I don't believe there are many (or any) scientists saying this will be a minor blip that only infects 1% or fewer. And 20% would be devastating, let alone 60-70%.