[cactus2093]

Sources? It seems far too early and there isn't enough reliable observational data, much less scientific trial data, available for broad "scientific agreement".

Although obviously the accuracy of China's data is in question, it's promising that they were able to get the reproduction rate below 1 pretty quickly. And within Wuhan itself the spreading seems to have slowed with something like 0.6% of the population of 11 million infected.

Not to mention in China outside of Wuhan/Hubei, which have conditions much more similar to most of the rest of the world in having some advanced warning of the virus, the spread seems also to have slowed down at a much much lower infection rate.

Based on this information it's not clear to me where the "40-70% of the world getting infected" idea is coming from, though I've seen a few headlines reporting that too.

[dwild]

Wuhan is your reference? China too? Aren't they putting pretty severe quarantine in Wuhan? Aren't their quarantine outside of Wuhan still quite strong?

The Diamond Princess had a quarantine, and yet the infection reached 706 peoples, in a boat with 3711 peoples. Sure that's "only" 20%, but that seems to me like 40% isn't that far out if we are considering that it's hard to quarantine a whole country.

The timeframe is important too, as long as we don't have developed any vaccine, the only way to develop immunity is by being infected... thus if the virus spread that easily, it's only a question of when will we reach 40-70%, not if.

[physicles]

Yeah I’m in Beijing now and there’s no way most of the world could implement this kind of quarantine. I can’t leave or come back home without presenting a special card at the gate of my apartment complex.

But it’s working, and at this point I’d rather be here than in many other countries.

[bhanhfo]

Source added in my post above. The number comes from this guy: https://www.charite.de/en/service/en_person_detail/person/ad...