[askafriend]

I'm sure Tesla will also have EVs as good as Tesla for half the price by 2020.

They'll also have a vastly improved super charger network, a mature software ecosystem, a mature direct sales/servicing model, and whatever else they dream up like Powerwall and other systems that can potentially add value to the whole. VW will just be scratching the surface by 2020 while Tesla will likely continue sprinting ahead.

[simion314]

When EV gets popular enough won't all petrol station install chargers too? When this happens the super charger network will not be a large advantage. The only issue I see is if each company creates it's own "super/fast" charging system and DRMs it for "security" reasons.

[geezerjay]

> When EV gets popular enough won't all petrol station install chargers too?

More importantly, when EVs get popular we'll obviously see new power supply stations everywhere, and they may not comply with today's notion of a gas station. We'll see for example EV-specific stations such as rest areas or highway diners or shopping centers or autosilos or private parking spots that provide that service while drivers go on with their lives. These actually already exist, but as the number of EV cars is so small in comparison to ICE cars that they are barely noticeable.

[simion314]

Yes, the form factor is different so we will get more chargin stations then petrol station, I was thinking at the long trips Tesla owners say they can do because they can recharge the car in 39 minutes or something like that, but most citizens will be fine with night charging at home.

[perilunar]

The best place to charge an EV is wherever the car spends the majority of its daylight hours (which for many workers will be the company parking lot). That way they can be charged directly from solar PV during the peak hours, avoiding the necessity for storing that energy anywhere else.

[beatgammit]

Also, if these charging stations are managed by the power company, they can act as reserves of power for the area, so electricity spikes can be handled by EVs. This also goes for cars parked at home, which can charge after peak hours and use other renewable sources, like wind.

I'm very interested to see if this actually happens in the near future.

[herval]

Unless solar panels evolve _considerably_ in efficiency, or you cover a gigantic area with panels for a single car, I believe that’s not really a viable option

[kumarvvr]

Petrol stations are usually on prime commercial land. I doubt theyd get more revenue from charging stations over sale or lease to commercial activities like shops, etc.

I guess in the future Movie theatres, airports, malls, etc will be equipped with charging stations as an incentive to customers.

[zeristor]

I think the idea is that most people will use home charging.

Although not being able to charge from home looks like an opportunity for someone.

[stephengillie]

Maybe some stations will have charging lobbies, where you can charge your phone and take a nap (charge yourself) while the car charges.

[andai]

In that case, I foresee another wave of dongles.

[simion314]

Will dongles work if we talk about DRM? You may need to pay a hell lot to buy an approved dongle that contains the correct security key or someone needs to crack the DRM.

I hope we don't get scenarios where you need to charge a car, there are 10 free sports but all are from different manufacturers and are not compatible or charge you extra like we had with ATMs where you had to find teh right ATM or pay extra.

[sigi45]

Sure but VW produces 10 Million a year. Tesla 100k.

VW hast way more: experience, capacity, people, money.

They can probably do that.

[askafriend]

VW produces 10 million regular ICE cars a year.

It will take time to shift an entire entrenched organizational culture to focus on EVs...and not just making them, but to make ones that are truly without compromise ("as good as Tesla").

These things aren't easy at all, though it might be tempting to think that it's just a matter of resources. Microsoft had all the resources in the world and still couldn't pull off Bing or Windows Phone.

To challenge your thinking a bit, consider this: part of the reason you can buy a Tesla in California or Texas today and not worry about range at all is the supercharger network that can take your Model 3 from 0 to 80% in 20mins. That's a multi decade infrastructure investment that VW hasn't even begun. And no, regular 3rd party chargers you see plopped in random malls and centers aren't even close. Not by a long shot.

[geezerjay]

> VW produces 10 million regular ICE cars a year.

Yes, VW knows how to build cars, and manage all the aspects of the process, both technical and political, with plants spread through multiple countries continents.

And VW knows how to do that at scale.

> It will take time to shift an entire entrenched organizational culture to focus on EVs...

That assertion makes no sense, specially because VW does not need to switch the focus of anything. It's another power plant with a particular set of requirements, and VW is already handling those for decades and at much larger scale.

And production-wise, VW is orders of magnitude more capable and experienced in handling entirely different production processes.

Let's put things into perspective: Tesla is currently redlining its production process, including resorting to tents to perform ad-hoc extensions to the company's plant, just to reach 1% of VW's current production capacity, and currently VW is actually scrambling to keep entire factories with a residual production line for non-technical or economical reasons.

[Latteland]

Sure, vw can do it, match tesla. So can audi, gm, bmw, mercedes, etc. Yet these companies haven't done it. Even the new ipace is less that my 2012 Dec Tesla 85kwh S. It's 6 years later and they haven't matched them.

[twblalock]

I think you'll find that what VW cares most about is selling cars, not selling ICE cars. If someone proves the market for electric cars viable (thanks Tesla!), VW will not have trouble convincing themselves to make some.

In fact, the Audi e-tron is coming out soon and it is based on one of the most popular VW group compact crossovers, which is a much hotter market segment than sedans.

I know a lot of Tesla owners and they don't rely on superchargers when they travel. They just drive one of their other cars, or fly. The superchargers are not as big of an advantage as they seem to be, especially in urban areas where they are overcrowded. Futhermore, they are not free for owners of the Model 3, and usage is free only under certain limits for owners of other Tesla models: https://www.tesla.com/support/supercharging

[geezerjay]

> I think you'll find that what VW cares most about is selling cars, not selling ICE cars. If someone proves the market for electric cars viable (thanks Tesla!), VW will not have trouble convincing themselves to make some.

I would also add that even VW's unions backed VW's transition to EV, and actually insisted that VW "invested heavily" in EVs.

And that actually happened way back in 2016

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2016/11/18/volksw...

So, claiming that VW will be unable to perform that transition when at this stage the company has been actively shifting its focus for years... It shows a complete lack of understanding of how VW operates and what VW's plans have been for years.

[tebbers]

Will VW be willing to sacrifice solid profits from its ICE cars for likely lower initial profits for electric cars, similar to how Apple cannibalized its iPod line for the iPhone? I don’t know enough about German management culture but I have not heard it to be particularly dynamic and flexible.

[davnicwil]

I agree with your other points but not with the charger network one.

What do you mean by multi-decade infrastructure investment? It hasn't taken Tesla multiple decades to spin theirs up. If you mean it's a multi-decade commitment, well sure, but it's very clear at this point that VW (and others) are going to make that commitment.

Also, it seems rather likely that actually there will be a much better commodity charger network, running on an open standard, set up. Seems unthinkable that it wouldn't be the case, actually, probably even legally enforced by regulation if necessary - though it will probably just make economic sense for all manufacturers to agree to this and evolve naturally.

[beatgammit]

Microsoft did pull off Bing and Windows Phone technically, they just missed on making them popular. VW is already in the car market and has a substantial user-base, that wasn't the case for Microsoft in those markets.

If VW can launch a quality product with way more supply than Tesla, they'll sell more. Tesla is doing most of the marketing for EVs, VW and other auto makers just need to meet demand. There's far less customer loyalty on things like cars than computers or online services, so it'll come down to value.

[_ph_]

At the current Model 3 production rates (>50k/quarter), Tesla is on track of producing 230-250k cars this year, 350k cars next year, more if they raise the production speed further.

[carlsborg]

And $250 billion of revenue as a group annually. But that doesn’t help - if Tesla platformized the software with a developer program, the adoption rate would be astronomical and that lockin would be hard to defeat, same as the iPhone. The car will be the same as mobile phone hardware. The question is can Vw pull that off? They can certainly make the cars.

[sambull]

Tesla is a battery company.

[fattire]

I think you spelled Panasonic wrong.

[dagw]

I thought they bought the cells from Panasonic, but made their own batteries.

[madaxe_again]

And there’s the rub. From where are VW going to source their batteries? Having vertical integration rather than having to buy from third parties is a fairly substantial advantage.

[cjhopman]

WTF are you talking about? Tesla buys their batteries from a third party.

[madaxe_again]

They make their own cells.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/battery-cell-production-begins-gi...

[cjhopman]

Is this a joke? Tesla doesn't make their own cells. They buy them from Panasonic.

[kumarvvr]

The point is all that experience was useless since they could not see the future, nay innovate their way into the future.

It sure seems to me like the ICE car indistry biggies are in a kodak like moment.

[zeristor]

They had enough organisational problems to think it was easier to cheat tests for diesel pollution, than fix the issue.

From the love bug to just a bug.

[mtgx]

I remember when Nokia used the same defense against apple in 2007.

[lazyjones]

You‘d think they could also sell cars without fraudulent software then, wouldn’t you? The question is whether they‘re prepared to lose money doing it or are just making more dishonest claims as usual.

[ekianjo]

Not sure. They did not really deliver on the Model 3 initial price, since most models are sold with the more expensive options. And if I remember correctly the price paid by the consumer depends on government subsidies as well to promote EVs.

[AriaMinaei]

This episode [0] from a16z doesn't fully agree with that sentiment. It has to do with the commodification of EV parts and EV services, allowing traditional market players to catch up with the disruptors.

[0] https://a16z.com/2018/09/17/hallway-conversation-tesla-disru...

[_0w8t]

I drove VW eGolf recently. Under the hood one clearly see that VW treats electrical cars as nuisance. The was a lot of empty space and a mess of cables. That is, VM still designed a car that was essentially a IC car with the engine removed and the battery stuffed under the back seats. If VM manages to change that in 2 years, then great. But they have a lot of cultural inertia to overcome.

[lazyjones]

Tesla probably won’t be able to churn out the millions of EV a year the chinese Market demands. Someone else will do it and become an EV giant. My bets are not on VW though.