It will take time to shift an entire entrenched organizational culture to focus on EVs...and not just making them, but to make ones that are truly without compromise ("as good as Tesla").
These things aren't easy at all, though it might be tempting to think that it's just a matter of resources. Microsoft had all the resources in the world and still couldn't pull off Bing or Windows Phone.
To challenge your thinking a bit, consider this: part of the reason you can buy a Tesla in California or Texas today and not worry about range at all is the supercharger network that can take your Model 3 from 0 to 80% in 20mins. That's a multi decade infrastructure investment that VW hasn't even begun. And no, regular 3rd party chargers you see plopped in random malls and centers aren't even close. Not by a long shot.
Yes, VW knows how to build cars, and manage all the aspects of the process, both technical and political, with plants spread through multiple countries continents.
And VW knows how to do that at scale.
> It will take time to shift an entire entrenched organizational culture to focus on EVs...
That assertion makes no sense, specially because VW does not need to switch the focus of anything. It's another power plant with a particular set of requirements, and VW is already handling those for decades and at much larger scale.
And production-wise, VW is orders of magnitude more capable and experienced in handling entirely different production processes.
Let's put things into perspective: Tesla is currently redlining its production process, including resorting to tents to perform ad-hoc extensions to the company's plant, just to reach 1% of VW's current production capacity, and currently VW is actually scrambling to keep entire factories with a residual production line for non-technical or economical reasons.
Sure, vw can do it, match tesla. So can audi, gm, bmw, mercedes, etc. Yet these companies haven't done it. Even the new ipace is less that my 2012 Dec Tesla 85kwh S. It's 6 years later and they haven't matched them.
I think you'll find that what VW cares most about is selling cars, not selling ICE cars. If someone proves the market for electric cars viable (thanks Tesla!), VW will not have trouble convincing themselves to make some.
In fact, the Audi e-tron is coming out soon and it is based on one of the most popular VW group compact crossovers, which is a much hotter market segment than sedans.
I know a lot of Tesla owners and they don't rely on superchargers when they travel. They just drive one of their other cars, or fly. The superchargers are not as big of an advantage as they seem to be, especially in urban areas where they are overcrowded. Futhermore, they are not free for owners of the Model 3, and usage is free only under certain limits for owners of other Tesla models: https://www.tesla.com/support/supercharging
> I think you'll find that what VW cares most about is selling cars, not selling ICE cars. If someone proves the market for electric cars viable (thanks Tesla!), VW will not have trouble convincing themselves to make some.
I would also add that even VW's unions backed VW's transition to EV, and actually insisted that VW "invested heavily" in EVs.
So, claiming that VW will be unable to perform that transition when at this stage the company has been actively shifting its focus for years... It shows a complete lack of understanding of how VW operates and what VW's plans have been for years.
Will VW be willing to sacrifice solid profits from its ICE cars for likely lower initial profits for electric cars, similar to how Apple cannibalized its iPod line for the iPhone? I don’t know enough about German management culture but I have not heard it to be particularly dynamic and flexible.
I agree with your other points but not with the charger network one.
What do you mean by multi-decade infrastructure investment? It hasn't taken Tesla multiple decades to spin theirs up. If you mean it's a multi-decade commitment, well sure, but it's very clear at this point that VW (and others) are going to make that commitment.
Also, it seems rather likely that actually there will be a much better commodity charger network, running on an open standard, set up. Seems unthinkable that it wouldn't be the case, actually, probably even legally enforced by regulation if necessary - though it will probably just make economic sense for all manufacturers to agree to this and evolve naturally.
Microsoft did pull off Bing and Windows Phone technically, they just missed on making them popular. VW is already in the car market and has a substantial user-base, that wasn't the case for Microsoft in those markets.
If VW can launch a quality product with way more supply than Tesla, they'll sell more. Tesla is doing most of the marketing for EVs, VW and other auto makers just need to meet demand. There's far less customer loyalty on things like cars than computers or online services, so it'll come down to value.
At the current Model 3 production rates (>50k/quarter), Tesla is on track of producing 230-250k cars this year, 350k cars next year, more if they raise the production speed further.
And $250 billion of revenue as a group annually. But that doesn’t help - if Tesla platformized the software with a developer program, the adoption rate would be astronomical and that lockin would be hard to defeat, same as the iPhone. The car will be the same as mobile phone hardware. The question is can Vw pull that off? They can certainly make the cars.
And there’s the rub. From where are VW going to source their batteries? Having vertical integration rather than having to buy from third parties is a fairly substantial advantage.
You‘d think they could also sell cars without fraudulent software then, wouldn’t you? The question is whether they‘re prepared to lose money doing it or are just making more dishonest claims as usual.
It will take time to shift an entire entrenched organizational culture to focus on EVs...and not just making them, but to make ones that are truly without compromise ("as good as Tesla").
These things aren't easy at all, though it might be tempting to think that it's just a matter of resources. Microsoft had all the resources in the world and still couldn't pull off Bing or Windows Phone.
To challenge your thinking a bit, consider this: part of the reason you can buy a Tesla in California or Texas today and not worry about range at all is the supercharger network that can take your Model 3 from 0 to 80% in 20mins. That's a multi decade infrastructure investment that VW hasn't even begun. And no, regular 3rd party chargers you see plopped in random malls and centers aren't even close. Not by a long shot.