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by aint 4140 days ago
Interesting that Ukraine has higher arms export numbers than Sweden, Netherlands and Spain. I never knew Ukraine was an arms exporter at all.
3 comments

The USSR based a LOT of stuff in the Ukraine, both in terms of operational units, and supporting industry. Most of which was inherited by Ukraine when the USSR was dissolved. While many of the operational units were also dissolved, or traded back to Russia (for example, some Tu-160 strategic bombers), arms export is a pretty sweet way (relatively) for a new country to get some nice cashflow. Wiki says that Ukraine received about 30% of the USSR's arms industry... which is a lot.
>arms export is a pretty sweet way (relatively) for a new country to get some nice cashflow.

Ukraine was delivering relatively modern tanks - T-84 - to Thailand about the time when they outlawed Russian language while its army still had the old T-64. Historic lesson - putting your army on modern tanks should be the first step while outlawing a language of a major minority - second - and not otherwise :)

> when they outlawed Russian language

How do you mean? Half of Kiev (Ukrainian capital) speaks Russian as their first language. Half of the Ukrainian army and National Guard (including the volunteers) speak Russian as their fist language. Outlawed, eh?

they made it illegal (outlawed) to have schools in Russian, various government proceedings, etc... - all the achievements of the "Law of the Language", the results of the multi-year completely democratic and lawful process, were scrapped right in a first second by the junta right after the Maidan coup and thus among others sending a clear message of no more democracy for the ethnic Russians.
> they made it illegal (outlawed) to have schools in Russian

This is not true.

> various government proceedings

Always been like that. But the officials could always talk in Russian if they felt like it.

The rest is just propaganda.

>The rest is just propaganda.

ok. Then please do tell us what was so important about the language law that it was the very first order of business of the Kiev's junta on the very first moment it came to power.

What's interesting is that a lot Ukrainian arms exports are to Russia with which it is now at war.
That's one of the reasons for the civil war in Ukraine, an attempt(successful) to dismantle the left-over military industrial complex in Eastern Ukraine that was inherited from Soviet Union (competes with US's military industrial complex). They didn't want to do it peacefully(The EU-Ukraine association pact required shutting down these factories) , Yanukovich refused(his support base came from the East) now all of it lies in ruins (thanks to the US installed junta)
In what world is the democratically elected government of Mr. Poroshenko, a "US-installed junta"?
>democratically elected government of Mr. Poroshenko

interesting how democratically elected Poroshenko is ok while democratically voted separation of Crimea isn't. Democracy is supposed to be a principle not a substitute for the "i like the outcome" label :)

What part of the helicopter assault and naval blockade of Crimea is comparable to the Kosovo settlement? Which previous war with a genocide chaser primed the put-upon citizens of Crimea to form an army, gov't., etc? There is no comparison between Crimea and Kosovo in terms of extra-national interference. Please keep in mind that preping an assault force of Hinds and thousands of unmarked soldiers takes quite a while. The moment the Yanukovich ceded power, Russia began to act.

A better example of western tampering after a 'legitimate' election is in Gaza.

> Which previous war with a genocide chaser primed the put-upon citizens of Crimea to form an army, gov't., etc?

why wait for the genocide to actually happen? The new government in Kiev was completely clear with their very first action being the outlawing of Russian language. The international law, UN, recognize the right for self-determination without requirement of a genocide happening beforehand. Crimea used that right. They were just lucky that Putin's interests were aligned with theirs. The people of Donetsk weren't that lucky - the Kiev's "pacifier" operation (manned by the volunteers from Western Ukraine hating the ethnic Russians with their gut) in Donetsk region had gone into full swing and been really succeeding by the August of 2014 and would definitely succeeded if not for the direct Russia's intervention back then when finally Putin recognized that letting the ethnic cleansing happen in Donbass wouldn't be good for his regime.

Or lets try it from other side - how many ethnic Russians should have been killed by the Kiev pacifiers before you'd recognize right for self-determination for Donetsk (or Crimea if Russia did let the pacification to happen in Crimea) ?

> why wait for the genocide to actually happen?

The "South-East of Ukraine", which Russia claims is threatened by "genocide", is 9 regions in addition to Donbass and Crimea. None of the 9 regions have seen any ethnic conflict, let alone genocide happening since the hostilities in Donbass began. The hostilities in Donbass have only been possible because of the Russian covert military involvement, as Girkin has confessed on multiple occasions.

Let me ask you a question. Are the Russians living in Nikolaev somehow different to Kiev than the Russians living in Crimea? Why isn't there a genocide going on right now? Or why is that the Donbass cities which are under central government control are not being ethnically cleansed and live in peace, just as the rest of Ukraine does?

Moreover, half of the Ukrainian Army and National Guard (including the volunteers) speak Russian as their first language, and many of them are ethnic Russians from Donbass and the rest of Ukraine.

> The people of Donetsk weren't that lucky - the Kiev's "pacifier" operation

The people of eastern Donbass weren't lucky because that's where Girkin and his merry band decided to "stir things up" after being inserted from Russia. Hadn't it been for them, Donbass would be as peaceful and prosperous as the rest of Ukraine. Girkin has confessed as much himself.

> manned by the volunteers from Western Ukraine hating the ethnic Russians with their gut

This is simply not true. Look up the videos filmed by the Ukrainian soldiers, check the names of the wounded and killed on the Ukrainian side - plenty of them are ethnic Russians.

> Or lets try it from other side - how many ethnic Russians should have been killed by the Kiev

Let's try another one: how many people in eastern Donbass would have died if Girkin and his people hadn't appeared in Slavyansk prompting a covert military invasion from Russia? (hint: consider the rest of Donbass and the South-East of Ukraine).

>why wait for the genocide to actually happen?

What Russia is doing/has done in Chechnya is ethnic cleansing. They [Chechens] have been fighting for self determination for 30+ years. Your rhetoric, much like my own country's, falls flat in the face of facts.

>Crimea used that right.

The prevalence of this melarke is astounding. The chronology is a matter of public record. The 'vote' was nearly a month after the invasion.

>Kiev's "pacifier" operation

I have no knowledge of this. I do remember that Ukrainian paras and LEOs cracked down on extreme [Ukrainian] nationalist in the Western Ukraine before they began the fight against the Cossack invasion.

>Putin recognized

...10 years ago that the Ultra-Nationalists in Russia would tear the country apart. He is backed into a corner, ruling a nation controlled by thugs with very little to offer the global economy outside of shit tier weapons and petroleum products.

>...before you'd recognize right for self-determination for Donetsk

Do you support Palestinians, Tamils, Uyghurs, Kosovars right to self determination? I am not an advocate for mass slaughter. I firmly believe in equal representation. Partitioning countries by ethnic division is the fast track to both.

It seems very clear to me that Russia is backed into a corner. They have a dwindling, ignorant population obsessed with decadence. The have a poor geographical position. They have severe cultural divisions. The invasion of Ukraine as well as the impending invasions of Georgia, Bosnia/Croatia, and the Baltic States are a large gambit. Hilariously, it seems to be working so far.

The only thing that stands in the way of Russian Gangster Ascendancy is a German Army with U.S. equipment. Putin knows this. I have no faith in my Nation's wherewithal and resolve. 4000+ KIA in 10 years has nearly broken our military; how can those weaklings go up against a country more willing to slaughter their children and burn their livelihoods instead of retreat? Bully tactics work on the US and most of Europe. Germany and Scandinavia, less so.

The U.S. by some accounts set a bad international precedent with Kosovo. Crimea is not objectively any different from the former.

Even the civil war in Ukraine, which is absolutely criminal has international precedent (vis a vis Syria).

...Russia provided troops and equipment for the peacekeeping force in the Balkans. Also, that operation was planned and executed by NATO ( their first, I believe). Whatever the case, I believe the Kosovo/Serb cold conflict will be the next excuse for Russian expansionism. Either there, or as well as there, in Dagestan/Ossetia/Georgia regions.
There was no "democratically voted separation of Crimea", it was a farce.
It was free voting by the majority of people on that territory. Can you explain why such a thing can be called a farce? As the only reason i see to call such thing a farce is because one doesn't like the results.
> Can you explain why such a thing can be called a farce?

Mostly because people were to choose between two options both of which meant that Crimea would secede from Ukraine (the first one meant outright separation, the second a disguised one).

But there are other things which made it a farce: an armed occupation of the parliament building and forcing of the MPs to vote for the referendum[1][2], the haste with which the referendum was held (two weeks notice, not allowing for the sides to prepare arguments for and against the cessation), lack of public debates discussing pros and cons of the cessation, the fact that the "referendum" was not approved by the Ukrainian parliament, growing evidence that the outcome of the "referendum" had already been decided elsewhere[1][3].

I could go on, but if you're really interested in an example of a cessation referendum which was not a farce, consider the Scottish independence referendum of 2014 and compare its particulars with the Crimean one, side by side.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcCqrzctxH4

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUH-A3IF3h0

[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medal_%22For_the_Return_of_Crim...

In the world where the February 21st deal to keep Yanukovych in power until end of term [1] was reneged on with support by Voice of America and funding and training to Euromaiden groups from the West, prior US knowledge of the ouster and discussions about a suitable replacement [2], and a world where US policy makers suggest covert arming of the Ukraine [3]. It's also important to keep the broader context - that the nine former Warsaw Pact nations have in the past decade joined the EU of NATO and that the very aggressive terms and a near NATO deal with the Ukraine caused the original crisis that led up to the Feb deal. That the West and US armed other conflicts in the region (Moldova and Georgia). That US anti-ballistic missile battery systems have been installed along the Baltic that denies Russia it's anti-nuclear interception capabilities and directly violates Cold War treaties. Russia, too, plays dirty. But we can't pretend the West doesn't.

[1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/21/agreement-on-th...

[2] http://www.democracynow.org/2014/2/20/a_new_cold_war_ukraine... (25:00)

[3] http://csis.org/files/publication/150129_Mankoff_RussiaUkrai...

> the February 21st deal to keep Yanukovych in power... was reneged

It wasn't. The annexation of Crimea started before the deal was signed (Feb. 20) and Yanukovich decided to close shop and flee soon afterwards[1].

> and a world where US policy makers suggest covert arming of the Ukraine

With Ukraine undergoing a not-so-covert invasion, and Russian leadership having already laid a claim to half of Ukraine, no less[2], defensive weapons to help stop the aggression are hardly too much to ask.

> and a near NATO deal with the Ukraine caused the original crisis

European association agreement is hardly a "near NATO deal" and Ukraine had laws that precluded it from becoming a NATO member - so that wasn't even in the plans. The people took to the streets when Yanukovich abruptly reneged on his promise to sign the association agreement after visiting Moscow.

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/world/europe/ukraine-leade...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya

AFAICT we don't disagree on any points. Regarding support for Yunukovych, the deal was signed and not followed up on. It's true his authority was fading fast - these things are not mutually exclusive. The Feb 21 deal was struck to resolve the standoff discussed in your linked NYT article - can you point to where it says that annexation began before Feb 21st (the earliest I can find it mention is March)?

Similarly with covert armaments - the discussion of 'too much to ask' or 'right or wrong' is orthagonal to whether the West takes covert action in the Baltic to achieve policy objectives. My claim is merely that it is done - not that it is wrong.

And similarly wrt the association agreement - it has to do with the context of EU and NATO encroachment and Western action in the Baltic (I would have to admit that it was EU membership, not NATO, in this case).

The grandparent may have anti-European or -NATO sentiments. I don't. But I will defend the idea that the West, having heavily polled Ukraine and called for its own elections, and having discussed options for replacing the leadership, and training and funding groups in the Ukraine, and having controlled the election process in Kiev (calling afoul when Russia performed the same in the Crimea) absolutely is not above influencing its own support. Again I am not calling this bad.

> the deal was signed and not followed up on.

Yanukovich left the country (illegally, BTW), before the deal could even be followed upon. There wasn't anything for the parliament to do, but appoint an acting president and call for new elections.

> can you point to where it says that annexation began before Feb 21st (the earliest I can find it mention is March)?

Not in the article, no. But there are plenty of sources showing that. The Girkin interviews[1] or the Crimean annexation medal[2], among others.

> I would have to admit that it was EU membership, not NATO, in this case.

This is a big difference. Finland and Austria are both EU countries, but they've never been NATO members. EU is a political and economic union, not a military one. Russia's claim that Ukraine becoming a EU member poses a military threat to them is dishonest at best.

> and training and funding groups in the Ukraine, and having controlled the election process in Kiev (calling afoul when Russia performed the same in the Crimea)

What groups? There wasn't any paramilitary training or funding, contrary to what Russia would like us to believe. The West may have supported some NGOs, but that was perfectly legal (and acceptable) way of trying to sway the public opinion, as opposed to capturing the Crimean parliament building with commandos and herding the MPs into it in the middle of the night to force them to vote for a farce referendum[3][1].

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcCqrzctxH4

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medal_%22For_the_Return_of_Crim...

[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUH-A3IF3h0

Cannot everything you are saying about The West[sic] be applied to what Russia has done/is doing in E.Ukraine as well as Dagestan/Ossetia?
Probably because just coming right out and claiming it's a "Zionist plot" doesn't fly very well around here.

/s

In the same world where the US' own military junta was installed (Bush) with ease, under the cover of 'democracy'.
Democratic? When they barred the Party of Regions from participating and didn't let the east vote?
The Party of Regions basically rebranded itself as "Opposition Block" and got 29 seats in the Parliament.

All of the country voted (including the Eastern regions). A smaller part of the Donbass region couldn't vote because the insurgents didn't let the Ukrainian polling stations to operate.

when one third of the country is under constant bombardment (by both sides) and not allowed to vote, the other third are refugees living in neighbouring countries, what you sadly have is not an election but a farce.
One third of the country? Please get your facts straight. It's not even one third of the Donbass region that's affected by the hostilities, and Donbass is only 2 of the 24 regions ("oblasts") of Ukraine.