[myth_drannon]

That's one of the reasons for the civil war in Ukraine, an attempt(successful) to dismantle the left-over military industrial complex in Eastern Ukraine that was inherited from Soviet Union (competes with US's military industrial complex). They didn't want to do it peacefully(The EU-Ukraine association pact required shutting down these factories) , Yanukovich refused(his support base came from the East) now all of it lies in ruins (thanks to the US installed junta)

[throwaway344]

In what world is the democratically elected government of Mr. Poroshenko, a "US-installed junta"?

[trhway]

>democratically elected government of Mr. Poroshenko

interesting how democratically elected Poroshenko is ok while democratically voted separation of Crimea isn't. Democracy is supposed to be a principle not a substitute for the "i like the outcome" label :)

[classicsnoot]

What part of the helicopter assault and naval blockade of Crimea is comparable to the Kosovo settlement? Which previous war with a genocide chaser primed the put-upon citizens of Crimea to form an army, gov't., etc? There is no comparison between Crimea and Kosovo in terms of extra-national interference. Please keep in mind that preping an assault force of Hinds and thousands of unmarked soldiers takes quite a while. The moment the Yanukovich ceded power, Russia began to act.

A better example of western tampering after a 'legitimate' election is in Gaza.

[trhway]

> Which previous war with a genocide chaser primed the put-upon citizens of Crimea to form an army, gov't., etc?

why wait for the genocide to actually happen? The new government in Kiev was completely clear with their very first action being the outlawing of Russian language. The international law, UN, recognize the right for self-determination without requirement of a genocide happening beforehand. Crimea used that right. They were just lucky that Putin's interests were aligned with theirs. The people of Donetsk weren't that lucky - the Kiev's "pacifier" operation (manned by the volunteers from Western Ukraine hating the ethnic Russians with their gut) in Donetsk region had gone into full swing and been really succeeding by the August of 2014 and would definitely succeeded if not for the direct Russia's intervention back then when finally Putin recognized that letting the ethnic cleansing happen in Donbass wouldn't be good for his regime.

Or lets try it from other side - how many ethnic Russians should have been killed by the Kiev pacifiers before you'd recognize right for self-determination for Donetsk (or Crimea if Russia did let the pacification to happen in Crimea) ?

[geoka9]

> why wait for the genocide to actually happen?

The "South-East of Ukraine", which Russia claims is threatened by "genocide", is 9 regions in addition to Donbass and Crimea. None of the 9 regions have seen any ethnic conflict, let alone genocide happening since the hostilities in Donbass began. The hostilities in Donbass have only been possible because of the Russian covert military involvement, as Girkin has confessed on multiple occasions.

Let me ask you a question. Are the Russians living in Nikolaev somehow different to Kiev than the Russians living in Crimea? Why isn't there a genocide going on right now? Or why is that the Donbass cities which are under central government control are not being ethnically cleansed and live in peace, just as the rest of Ukraine does?

Moreover, half of the Ukrainian Army and National Guard (including the volunteers) speak Russian as their first language, and many of them are ethnic Russians from Donbass and the rest of Ukraine.

> The people of Donetsk weren't that lucky - the Kiev's "pacifier" operation

The people of eastern Donbass weren't lucky because that's where Girkin and his merry band decided to "stir things up" after being inserted from Russia. Hadn't it been for them, Donbass would be as peaceful and prosperous as the rest of Ukraine. Girkin has confessed as much himself.

> manned by the volunteers from Western Ukraine hating the ethnic Russians with their gut

This is simply not true. Look up the videos filmed by the Ukrainian soldiers, check the names of the wounded and killed on the Ukrainian side - plenty of them are ethnic Russians.

> Or lets try it from other side - how many ethnic Russians should have been killed by the Kiev

Let's try another one: how many people in eastern Donbass would have died if Girkin and his people hadn't appeared in Slavyansk prompting a covert military invasion from Russia? (hint: consider the rest of Donbass and the South-East of Ukraine).

[trhway]

>Are the Russians living in Nikolaev somehow different to Kiev than the Russians living in Crimea? Why isn't there a genocide going on right now?

because it has been made clear by Crimea and Donbass that if Ukraine tries it openly, the Russian tanks will come to Kiev, and Ukraine will lose even more territory. The massive shelling of cities, mainly and primarily Donetsk, by the Ukrainian forces (in many cases using cluster warheads on unguided missiles fired from multiple rocket launcher systems like "Smerch" and "Uragan" into the purely residential high-density districts located far from the actual battle lines) is the genocide and ethnic cleansing being performed under the cover of military action.

>Let's try another one: how many people in eastern Donbass would have died if Girkin and his people hadn't appeared in Slavyansk prompting a covert military invasion from Russia? (hint: consider the rest of Donbass and the South-East of Ukraine).

Girkin provided the focus point for the nationalists forces who had been doing "buses and trains of friendship" across all those regions and thus his incursion stopped the escalation of violence in those regions. It was like a lightning rod taking the hit away from other places. The message was clear - you either continue beating up and burning pro-Russian protesters in Kharkov, Odessa, etc... while Girkin takes the territory or you come and fight the Girkin thus leaving other people alone until Girkin problem is solved. As i was saying back at the time - until Ukraine understands that violence and oppression wouldn't provide the solution, Ukraine will be losing the territories and losing in other domains too.

[classicsnoot]

>why wait for the genocide to actually happen?

What Russia is doing/has done in Chechnya is ethnic cleansing. They [Chechens] have been fighting for self determination for 30+ years. Your rhetoric, much like my own country's, falls flat in the face of facts.

>Crimea used that right.

The prevalence of this melarke is astounding. The chronology is a matter of public record. The 'vote' was nearly a month after the invasion.

>Kiev's "pacifier" operation

I have no knowledge of this. I do remember that Ukrainian paras and LEOs cracked down on extreme [Ukrainian] nationalist in the Western Ukraine before they began the fight against the Cossack invasion.

>Putin recognized

...10 years ago that the Ultra-Nationalists in Russia would tear the country apart. He is backed into a corner, ruling a nation controlled by thugs with very little to offer the global economy outside of shit tier weapons and petroleum products.

>...before you'd recognize right for self-determination for Donetsk

Do you support Palestinians, Tamils, Uyghurs, Kosovars right to self determination? I am not an advocate for mass slaughter. I firmly believe in equal representation. Partitioning countries by ethnic division is the fast track to both.

It seems very clear to me that Russia is backed into a corner. They have a dwindling, ignorant population obsessed with decadence. The have a poor geographical position. They have severe cultural divisions. The invasion of Ukraine as well as the impending invasions of Georgia, Bosnia/Croatia, and the Baltic States are a large gambit. Hilariously, it seems to be working so far.

The only thing that stands in the way of Russian Gangster Ascendancy is a German Army with U.S. equipment. Putin knows this. I have no faith in my Nation's wherewithal and resolve. 4000+ KIA in 10 years has nearly broken our military; how can those weaklings go up against a country more willing to slaughter their children and burn their livelihoods instead of retreat? Bully tactics work on the US and most of Europe. Germany and Scandinavia, less so.

[trhway]

>>Crimea used that right.

>The prevalence of this melarke is astounding. The chronology is a matter of public record. The 'vote' was nearly a month after the invasion.

of course. Without Russian military presence any attempt at the vote would be bloodily squashed by the [Western] Ukrainian volunteer battalions.

>>Kiev's "pacifier" operation

>I have no knowledge of this.

It is what officially called "Anti-Terrorist Operation" that is happening in the Donbass.

>I do remember that Ukrainian paras and LEOs cracked down on extreme [Ukrainian] nationalist in the Western Ukraine before they began the fight against the Cossack invasion

A creature of Hell - Sashko Bilyy - was killed in pretty strange situation. Even Ukrainian nationalists finally decided to stop being publicly associated with the river of blood and torture he was leaving in his wake.

>>Do you support Palestinians, Tamils, Uyghurs, Kosovars right to self determination? I am not an advocate for mass slaughter. I firmly believe in equal representation. Partitioning countries by ethnic division is the fast track to both.

yes, i do. As Eltsyn said in 1991 when USSR was breaking up - "Take all the sovereignty you're able to carry away." Unfortunately, this short period of bloodless (or low-bloodness)independence getting was more of exception in the world rather than rule.

>It seems very clear to me that Russia is backed into a corner. They have a dwindling, ignorant population obsessed with decadence. The have a poor geographical position. They have severe cultural divisions.

it is pretty typical situation for Russia.

>Hilariously, it seems to be working so far.

will see. Falling of oil prices was a nice punch that Russia still need to live through. Last time it happened - mid-198x - the USSR went down like in boxing knock-down.

>The only thing that stands in the way of Russian Gangster Ascendancy is a German Army with U.S. equipment. Putin knows this. I have no faith in my Nation's wherewithal and resolve. 4000+ KIA in 10 years has nearly broken our military; how can those weaklings go up against a country more willing to slaughter their children and burn their livelihoods instead of retreat? Bully tactics work on the US and most of Europe. Germany and Scandinavia, less so.

If you look at the actual fighting in Donbass you'd notice that Russian military isn't very effective as a whole system. Of course, having nuclear ICBMs Russia thus willn't be made subject to "pacifying" invasion from NATO, yet Russian military also in no condition to effectively fight a high-tech force of NATO. Bully tactics works because NATO doesn't want any war, successful or unsuccessful, because peaceful life is that much better and cost effective. Putin's regime on the other side is under huge stress, economical and political, and "small victorius war" would seem like a miracle medicine for it. Like with other similar regimes in similar situations such war somehow just doesn't materialize (Falkland war comes to mind). Nevertheless, when Ukrainian nationalists took power in the coup and couldn't force themselves to work through the main course - buildup of economy and army - and instead went straight for the desert - solving "issue" of ethnic Russians - it was an opening Putin couldn't resist. It was his wet dream come true. The bloodless takeover of Crimea (with full support by the majority of the Crimea population, technical/procedural issues with the referendum be damned :) shot his approval rating into stratosphere ... Well, despite it looking like a "miracle medicine", such actions have only short-term effect of opiatic pain-killer with real problems staying unsolved and only going worse... So, more pain-killer is in order...

[hurin]

The U.S. by some accounts set a bad international precedent with Kosovo. Crimea is not objectively any different from the former.

Even the civil war in Ukraine, which is absolutely criminal has international precedent (vis a vis Syria).

[classicsnoot]

...Russia provided troops and equipment for the peacekeeping force in the Balkans. Also, that operation was planned and executed by NATO ( their first, I believe). Whatever the case, I believe the Kosovo/Serb cold conflict will be the next excuse for Russian expansionism. Either there, or as well as there, in Dagestan/Ossetia/Georgia regions.

[geoka9]

There was no "democratically voted separation of Crimea", it was a farce.

[trhway]

It was free voting by the majority of people on that territory. Can you explain why such a thing can be called a farce? As the only reason i see to call such thing a farce is because one doesn't like the results.

[geoka9]

> Can you explain why such a thing can be called a farce?

Mostly because people were to choose between two options both of which meant that Crimea would secede from Ukraine (the first one meant outright separation, the second a disguised one).

But there are other things which made it a farce: an armed occupation of the parliament building and forcing of the MPs to vote for the referendum[1][2], the haste with which the referendum was held (two weeks notice, not allowing for the sides to prepare arguments for and against the cessation), lack of public debates discussing pros and cons of the cessation, the fact that the "referendum" was not approved by the Ukrainian parliament, growing evidence that the outcome of the "referendum" had already been decided elsewhere[1][3].

I could go on, but if you're really interested in an example of a cessation referendum which was not a farce, consider the Scottish independence referendum of 2014 and compare its particulars with the Crimean one, side by side.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcCqrzctxH4

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUH-A3IF3h0

[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medal_%22For_the_Return_of_Crim...

[trhway]

ok, so non-following of the full set of details of a full-fledged democratic process makes the will of the people illegitimate. Are you kidding me? A coup of nationalist forces has just overthrown the legitimately fully democratically bells-and-whistles elected president, and now this new nationalist regime that took power through the coup is unsatisfied with the quality of democratic process a minority (primarily targeted by the new regime) used to run away from the coup. You can't be serious.

This is exactly the double standard i was talking about.

[xnull6guest]

In the world where the February 21st deal to keep Yanukovych in power until end of term [1] was reneged on with support by Voice of America and funding and training to Euromaiden groups from the West, prior US knowledge of the ouster and discussions about a suitable replacement [2], and a world where US policy makers suggest covert arming of the Ukraine [3]. It's also important to keep the broader context - that the nine former Warsaw Pact nations have in the past decade joined the EU of NATO and that the very aggressive terms and a near NATO deal with the Ukraine caused the original crisis that led up to the Feb deal. That the West and US armed other conflicts in the region (Moldova and Georgia). That US anti-ballistic missile battery systems have been installed along the Baltic that denies Russia it's anti-nuclear interception capabilities and directly violates Cold War treaties. Russia, too, plays dirty. But we can't pretend the West doesn't.

[1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/21/agreement-on-th...

[2] http://www.democracynow.org/2014/2/20/a_new_cold_war_ukraine... (25:00)

[3] http://csis.org/files/publication/150129_Mankoff_RussiaUkrai...

[geoka9]

> the February 21st deal to keep Yanukovych in power... was reneged

It wasn't. The annexation of Crimea started before the deal was signed (Feb. 20) and Yanukovich decided to close shop and flee soon afterwards[1].

> and a world where US policy makers suggest covert arming of the Ukraine

With Ukraine undergoing a not-so-covert invasion, and Russian leadership having already laid a claim to half of Ukraine, no less[2], defensive weapons to help stop the aggression are hardly too much to ask.

> and a near NATO deal with the Ukraine caused the original crisis

European association agreement is hardly a "near NATO deal" and Ukraine had laws that precluded it from becoming a NATO member - so that wasn't even in the plans. The people took to the streets when Yanukovich abruptly reneged on his promise to sign the association agreement after visiting Moscow.

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/world/europe/ukraine-leade...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya

[xnull2guest]

AFAICT we don't disagree on any points. Regarding support for Yunukovych, the deal was signed and not followed up on. It's true his authority was fading fast - these things are not mutually exclusive. The Feb 21 deal was struck to resolve the standoff discussed in your linked NYT article - can you point to where it says that annexation began before Feb 21st (the earliest I can find it mention is March)?

Similarly with covert armaments - the discussion of 'too much to ask' or 'right or wrong' is orthagonal to whether the West takes covert action in the Baltic to achieve policy objectives. My claim is merely that it is done - not that it is wrong.

And similarly wrt the association agreement - it has to do with the context of EU and NATO encroachment and Western action in the Baltic (I would have to admit that it was EU membership, not NATO, in this case).

The grandparent may have anti-European or -NATO sentiments. I don't. But I will defend the idea that the West, having heavily polled Ukraine and called for its own elections, and having discussed options for replacing the leadership, and training and funding groups in the Ukraine, and having controlled the election process in Kiev (calling afoul when Russia performed the same in the Crimea) absolutely is not above influencing its own support. Again I am not calling this bad.

[geoka9]

> the deal was signed and not followed up on.

Yanukovich left the country (illegally, BTW), before the deal could even be followed upon. There wasn't anything for the parliament to do, but appoint an acting president and call for new elections.

> can you point to where it says that annexation began before Feb 21st (the earliest I can find it mention is March)?

Not in the article, no. But there are plenty of sources showing that. The Girkin interviews[1] or the Crimean annexation medal[2], among others.

> I would have to admit that it was EU membership, not NATO, in this case.

This is a big difference. Finland and Austria are both EU countries, but they've never been NATO members. EU is a political and economic union, not a military one. Russia's claim that Ukraine becoming a EU member poses a military threat to them is dishonest at best.

> and training and funding groups in the Ukraine, and having controlled the election process in Kiev (calling afoul when Russia performed the same in the Crimea)

What groups? There wasn't any paramilitary training or funding, contrary to what Russia would like us to believe. The West may have supported some NGOs, but that was perfectly legal (and acceptable) way of trying to sway the public opinion, as opposed to capturing the Crimean parliament building with commandos and herding the MPs into it in the middle of the night to force them to vote for a farce referendum[3][1].

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcCqrzctxH4

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medal_%22For_the_Return_of_Crim...

[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUH-A3IF3h0

[xnull2guest]

There were other options like keeping the current administration solvent - Yanokovych himself said that he was still wanting to fulfill his duties - and the parliament didn't have enough votes to remove him from office (it was done anyway).

All of the sources I can find including Girkin's own testimony put him in Ukraine in April at the earliest. Can you point to something specific?

Certainly there is a big difference between NATO and the EU. The point stands that several former Warsaw nations HAVE joined NATO. The Ukraine was only set to join the EU under extremely hostile conditions to Russia (the deal with the EU would have precluded close economic ties with Russia).

Russia's claim was that the threat was to national security - and this is true - especially if they were to lose the port accesses in the Crimea. Furthermore the Ukraine controls the pipelines that deliver gas and oil from Russia. This powers 70% of Europe and is the main export and national income of Russia. The EU deal would have severely undercut Russia's ability to negotiate oil prices, which absolutely poses a national security problem. This is common among nations; for example The United States considers the Trans-Pacific Partnership key for national security concerns and interests in the Pacific region and into the future. The TPP is not a military deal.

Academi (Blackwater) was in Ukraine as early as January (this can be confirmed with Google image searches). The NGOs you mentioned made up large numbers of the Euromaiden protestors that occupied Central Square - it's also important to name names: the support of these NGOs included the CIA's USAID. Legality is questionably relevant - at least to this conversation where we are discussing whether or not it was done. Acceptable to us, yes. Not to Russia.

Russia definitely responded with direct military force. We aren't talking about that though. We're talking about installing juntas and influencing politics. As I mentioned in an earlier comment I'm not interested in whether this was right or good or bad. Merely that it was done. It was done.

[classicsnoot]

Cannot everything you are saying about The West[sic] be applied to what Russia has done/is doing in E.Ukraine as well as Dagestan/Ossetia?

[xnull2guest]

Yes.

It is not good versus evil nor is noble versus savage. It is power versus power.

[guard-of-terra]

What about Dagestan? Maybe you mean Abkhasia?

[cbd1984]

Probably because just coming right out and claiming it's a "Zionist plot" doesn't fly very well around here.

/s

[fit2rule]

In the same world where the US' own military junta was installed (Bush) with ease, under the cover of 'democracy'.

[Mikeb85]

Democratic? When they barred the Party of Regions from participating and didn't let the east vote?

[geoka9]

The Party of Regions basically rebranded itself as "Opposition Block" and got 29 seats in the Parliament.

All of the country voted (including the Eastern regions). A smaller part of the Donbass region couldn't vote because the insurgents didn't let the Ukrainian polling stations to operate.

[myth_drannon]

when one third of the country is under constant bombardment (by both sides) and not allowed to vote, the other third are refugees living in neighbouring countries, what you sadly have is not an election but a farce.

[geoka9]

One third of the country? Please get your facts straight. It's not even one third of the Donbass region that's affected by the hostilities, and Donbass is only 2 of the 24 regions ("oblasts") of Ukraine.