[joezydeco]

The timing seems really clever here.

The USA and OPEC flood the market with oil (literally), crashing prices and sending the Ruble into a spiral. Just as Cuba starts to worry about Russian support going forward, the USA swoops in to provide some economic bracing.

[sremani]

I think this move effects Venezuela more than Russia. It is Venezuela that provides cheaper oil cuba in return for many services like healthcare etc. Now that oil is already cheap, Cuba does not need for patronage of Venezuela.

[joezydeco]

Putin was just in Cuba this summer to strengthen the oil business relationship and get more access to offshore drilling off the Cuban coast.

This seems like it's all a concerted effort to double-down on the embargo and slap Putin where it hurts the most.

[jpatokal]

You may have the causality the wrong way around here here: with Venezuela's oil revenues cratering and what remains of their economy after a decade of Chavismo spiraling rapidly downwards, it's unlikely they can afford to be Cuba's sugar daddy for much longer.

[adventured]

This is the correct answer. Venezuela is begging China for loans presently to delay an inevitable default. They were already in disaster mode before oil plunged. It's a smart move on Cuba's part to reconcile with the US.

[glup]

This analysis is a little off-- Cuba has received only symbolic support from Russia since the fall of the USSR. However, dynamics in the oil market are significant for Venezuela, their chief ally (and main supplier of energy resources!).

[joezydeco]

Putin handed Cuba $32 billion dollars a mere 5 months ago:

"During the [July 2014] visit, Putin agreed to write off $32 billion in Russian debt to Cuba, leaving just over $3 billion left to pay over the next 10 years. This was a significant economic weight lifted from Havana, whose gross domestic product shrank by up to a third with the loss of direct aid and subsidies from Moscow after the Soviet Union fell. Putin and Raúl Castro also agreed to new deals in energy, health and disaster prevention and help with building a vast new seaport. Moscow is also now exploring for oil and gas in Cuban waters, right in the U.S.’s backyard."

http://www.newsweek.com/2014/08/22/russia-and-cuba-get-back-...

[dragonwriter]

You know, there was a time when Newsweek would have known the difference between Russian debt to Cuba and Cuban debt to Russia.

[jfoutz]

I think it's fair to say tensions between the US and Russia are increasing over the Ukraine. An obvious, and historically effective, Russian intimidation tactic is a military presence in Cuba. Improving relations with Cuba makes that a bit tougher to achieve. I'm not saying this is the reason, just another positive outcome.

There are a ton of good reasons to improve relations, and few reasons not to.

[encoderer]

I think you're giving these people way too much credit. As if the shale oil boom was a plot all along. And it doesn't seem like they've had much support from Russia for most of the last 25 years so why would they worry about losing it now?

I think it's tempting to connect the dots. But they're just dots.

[joezydeco]

I believe Cuba is just collateral damage in the bigger things going on, but if the US can snatch away one of Putin's toys at an opportune time and turn the screws a little harder, why not?

Cuba will happy accept economic aid from the US (in the form of lifted sanctions) in the light that the Russian oil industry faces the possibility of collapse. Everyone expects a sudden humanitarian/tourist opening, but I don't believe that's going to be as quick.

[hughw]

Literally?

[vidarh]

Literally means figuratively too now, didn't you get the memo? (yes, I agree it's annoying, though I've probably done it myself more than once).

[eCa]

Webster's:

"Since some people take sense 2 to be the opposite of sense 1, it has been frequently criticized as a misuse. Instead, the use is pure hyperbole intended to gain emphasis, but it often appears in contexts where no additional emphasis is necessary." [1]

[1] http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/literally

[baddox]

Using the word that way, in parentheses, is not something I have ever encountered when intending to express hyperbole.

[hughw]

Thank you for looking that up and providing the reference. The M-W argument is flawed when the bit that "literally" modifies already is hyperbole. "Abuse of language sends me through the roof" is hyperbole. "Abuse of language literally sends me through the roof" is just ridiculous.

(Edited to clarify)

[skywhopper]

I have to drive through six inches of crude every time I go to the market, don't you?