[encoderer]

I think you're giving these people way too much credit. As if the shale oil boom was a plot all along. And it doesn't seem like they've had much support from Russia for most of the last 25 years so why would they worry about losing it now?

I think it's tempting to connect the dots. But they're just dots.

[joezydeco]

I believe Cuba is just collateral damage in the bigger things going on, but if the US can snatch away one of Putin's toys at an opportune time and turn the screws a little harder, why not?

Cuba will happy accept economic aid from the US (in the form of lifted sanctions) in the light that the Russian oil industry faces the possibility of collapse. Everyone expects a sudden humanitarian/tourist opening, but I don't believe that's going to be as quick.