[crdoconnor]

>That's assuming there are no technological improvements in transportation in the long, long term. Which is, honestly, in this time and age, ridiculous.

That's dumb. Japan has invested in it since the war and has reaped the benefits despite (relatively steady) technological improvements in HSR.

Assuming that there will be sufficient unknown black-swan technological breakthroughs to render it uneconomic is frankly, absurd.

[ekianjo]

> That's dumb. Japan has invested in it since the war and has reaped the benefits despite (relatively steady) technological improvements in HSR.

What benefits, exactly?

EDIT: I mean, what obvious economic benefits is Japan getting from spending so much on train lines?

[crdoconnor]

* Far lower CO2 emissions for long distance travel.

* Greater social interconnectivity between cities, enabling denser, richer industrial networks. The Keiretsu economic structure to which Japan owes so much of its industrial success would not have worked nearly as well without easy long distance intercity travel. Horizontal networks of large numbers of small businesses spread across large distances that combine together to form, e.g. a Nikon digital camera, would not be possible if executives in these businesses did not have easy access to one another and one another's factories.

* Lower trade deficit - it's better for Japan's economy that the money spent by its citizens on long distance travel isn't filtered overseas into the pockets of rich Arab dictators via oil purchases (who then spend it on gambling in Parisian casinos or American fighter jets). Instead, it is spent at home, generating additional economic activity, enriching Japanese rather than Arab princes.

* It serves as a good form of Keynesian stimulus - keeping people employed and levels of economic activity stable during debt-crisis driven economic slumps.

All of these are economic benefits that occur in addition to the cost savings.

[ekianjo]

> * Far lower CO2 emissions for long distance travel.

Yeah, except that electricity in Japan is mostly not nuclear, so you consume CO2 to produce electricity to run your trains anyway.

> Greater social interconnectivity between cities, enabling denser, richer industrial networks.

Most of the fabric of the industrial world in Japan is around Tokyo - that is the main point of the article, too, by the way. Most of the other cities in Japan are underdeveloped compared to Tokyo. Not sure where you get the idea the train is making things better for everyone.

> long distance travel isn't filtered overseas into the pockets of rich Arab dictators via oil purchases

Electricity is produced with petrol and gas in Japan mostly. You are feeding the same rich Arab dictators anyway.

> It serves as a good form of Keynesian stimulus

Yeah and we all know how well Keynesian stimulus works. It works as long as you spend, and then poof, nothing, and people get back to unemployment - it's a loss for everyone.

[crdoconnor]

>Yeah, except that electricity in Japan is mostly not nuclear, so you consume CO2 to produce electricity to run your trains anyway.

It's MORE energy efficient - not zero emission (yet):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail#Energy_efficie...

"Even using electricity generated from coal or oil, high-speed trains are significantly more fuel-efficient per passenger per kilometre traveled than the typical automobile because of economies of scale in generator technology[42] as well as lower air friction at the same speed."

Nonetheless, it will also make it easier to reduce emissions as renewable energy output ramps up. You can run HSR on hydro, wind and solar power - you can't run planes on electricity.

>Most of the fabric of the industrial world in Japan is around Tokyo

Japan's industry stretches a LOT further than just Tokyo, as do its Keiretsu, and MANY of its household-name brands (not to mention most factories) are not headquartered there (e.g. Toyota, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, Sharp, Nintendo, etc.). Japan is NOT just Tokyo.

>Most of the other cities in Japan are underdeveloped compared to Tokyo. Not sure where you get the idea the train is making things better for everyone.

I've no idea where you got the idea that the rest of Japan is undeveloped. Perhaps you should pay a visit to Osaka.

>Electricity is produced with petrol and gas in Japan mostly. You are feeding the same rich Arab dictators anyway.

Since Fukushima, yeah, but A) it is STILL more energy efficient and B) it's easier to move on to renewables (currently cheaper than oil) if your long distance travel depends largely on electricity rather than kerosine.

>Yeah and we all know how well Keynesian stimulus works. It works as long as you spend, and then poof, nothing,

It works perfectly well as a way of stabilizing demand and employment until the private sector works through a bad debt overhang and demand picks up again. This has been proven time and time again despite many economic junk-science attempts to disprove it.

If the stimulus is large enough (c.f. WW2 spending in US or Nazi public works programs pre-WW2) it ends depressions.

Japan's stimulus was enough to prevent widespread unemployment the likes of which Spain has right now, but not enough to end its serial economic malaise.

[ekianjo]

> I've no idea where you got the idea that the rest of Japan is undeveloped. Perhaps you should pay a visit to Osaka.

Haha, I live next to Osaka. But you're gonna tell me I dont know the place where I live, I guess?

I won't go into the debate about stimulus BS, because that's another entire topic, but as a side note Japan has been doing Keynesian stimulus for like 20 years with no effect whatsoever on the economy, so yeah, great proof of concept.

[crdoconnor]

I don't see how living near Osaka makes you any the less wrong about calling it undeveloped.

>I won't go into the debate about stimulus BS

That's probably best for you.

Japan has managed to keep its unemployment level pretty low and has had a protracted albeit mild depression over the last 20 years. This is undeniable.

The alternative (no stimulus at all / spiraling self-reinforcing depression) would have resulted in ending up like Greece or Spain. This is also undeniable.

I guess you think 50% youth unemployment vs. 5% counts as "no effect whatsoever"? I would beg to differ.