[nostromo]

If I was Amazon I'd be more worried about self-driving cars.

Self-driving cars will make natural delivery vehicles. If Google partnered with local retailers to provide check-out via wallet and delivery via automated cars, it would disrupt more than just Amazon.

Google has all of the nascent building blocks in place: Google Wallet, Google Shopping Express, Google Shopping, Google Maps with StreetView for routing, automated vehicles, and, of course, eyeballs.

[saosebastiao]

> Self-driving cars will make natural delivery vehicles.

Are you sure about that? Self-Driving cars are currently a very limited use case. They drive, but they haven't shown to be very adept at more anomalous behavior that humans can do, such as following detour signs, following traffic officer signaling at intersections, or finding parking spots in locations where they are unlikely to be towed.

Furthermore, when you want to actually deliver something, you have to do far more than a car is even capable of, such as unlocking doors (for apartment buildings with controlled access), opening the million different types of latches for front yard fence gates, obtaining legitimate signatures from humans, determining access requirements for new locations, finding and successfully navigating staircases, escalators, and elevators, and a dozens of other tasks that are years away and not prioritized in current research.

[svachalek]

Your first paragraph is fairly easily solved with data. When self driving cars are common, there will no doubt be police databases with information about detours and parking etc. Given that, they will do a much better job than humans trying to find and read signs.

The other parts of delivery are more of a problem. But remember at one time we thought it was necessary to have humans pump gas, operate elevators, and dispense cash. Those tasks were only partially automated, but sufficiently enough that the rest of the job was dumped onto the customer.

[yoster]

You are limiting your thinking to one type of solution. You also forgot the one thing that will trump all this, the human mind. A criminal mind would easily be able to rip off all the goods in a situation with driver-less cars.

[glenra]

That is a movie-plot threat; you're being silly. Vehicles can stream audio and video and GPS tracking data to dispatchers who would know where and how the car got broken into and could dispatch security. The cars don't need windshields and can be hardened to making breaking in more difficult. With cameras and GPS tracking in all the other cars in the area, not to mention surveillance drones and police helicopters, getting away clean is likely to be tricky.

[yoster]

Actually, you are being silly. You have never been in "the hood" then where cops take forever to get there. Ever been to L.A., NYC, etc.? All that stuff cost extra money to equip a vehicle. Cameras can't do much with someone that has a bandana and shades on. You think the police will actually dispatch a helicopter for a driver-less vehicle? You sound like YOU have been watching too many movies. The cost to run drones in the air would end up being astronomical. I hope you are not being serious....

[glenra]

You are postulating a group that is willing to hijack an unmanned truck in order to steal the goods being delivered and doesn't mind the risk of being seen because they "have a bandana and shades on". Question: What is so special about an unmanned truck given that circumstance? Wouldn't it be at least as easy for a group like that to hijack a manned truck? Why don't the same gangs pull a gun on the UPS guy and take all his stuff? That would be in some ways easier than taking stuff from an unmanned delivery van. The unmanned van can go into lockdown mode and doesn't have a driver who can be threatened to make him give up the key to the back.

The cost for any private party to send up their own monitor drones is coming down very quickly and will likely be insignificant by the time unmanned delivery vehicles are common. If one unmanned delivery car sends out a distress signal, other unmanned delivery cars in the area could release drones monitored by a local security firm to go see what's happening, follow the bad guys, and tell the cops exactly where they went.

The sort of drones I'm talking about might look like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQIMGV5vtd4

(You can already get copters of that sort with at least a 10 minute battery range for a mere few hundred bucks.)

[3825]

Google might have to license Microsoft's "avoid ghetto" patent and then just blacklist certain areas. No grocery deliveries for Gotham City!

[breadtk]

Self-driving cars could free up delivery drivers to do other things, such as sorting packages for the next drop-off location. I can't how many times I've seen a FedEx/UPS driver parked and trying to sort through boxes for a particular stop.

[jamesbritt]

Very good observations. I wonder, though, if self-driving can work for moving items from a warehouse to "close enough" such that some smaller local service can carry it that last mile.

[aylons]

Ahn? I think a self-driving car would still need someone to carry the product from the car to the door, or am I missing something?

[nostromo]

I envision getting a text. "Your pizza is here. Use code 4025 to open locker #24."

"You have 20 seconds to comply." ;-) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hzlt7IbTp6M

[saosebastiao]

Forcing people to be home is bad enough, but now you are forcing them to drop everything they are doing. Not exactly an amazing customer experience.

[nodata]

They wouldn't need to be home. The self-driving car would drive to the customer.

[svachalek]

True, but given a choice between an amazing customer experience and saving money, most people choose the latter. See: ATM, phone tree, commercial air travel.

[yoster]

I can just imagine the grandmother in a walking chair trying to get the package in a timely manner.

[venomsnake]

A person can get on the lawn and take it from the vehicle. You just need to separate the inside of the vehicle on easily configurable compartments.

[yardie]

The delivery guy that does regular drops at our office does everything from crates of server parts to flatpack envelopes. I can't imagine any sort of separation that can account for the variety of deliveries that need to be made and be small enough to fit onto city side streets.

[yid]

Rumors are that Google is testing a grocery-delivery bipedal robot that can climb stairs, use the elevator, etc.

[staccatomeasure]

I envy the teenagers of the future. They are going to have such wonderful targets of vandalism and destruction. However, it will make sad when Google adds defense mechanisms to the robots and skynet goes live.

[jeremyjh]

Yes and if it gets stumped it could alert a remote operator who could take over and figure out what to do. They don't have to handle every corner case if they have an escape hatch like that.

[yoster]

This will open up all types of theft. Camera on the robot? No problem, that mask and spray paint will clear that problem right up. Not to mention all the kids who will definitely be pushing this over for fun....

[goostavos]

Launching mechanism of some kind. UPS style ;)

[mtgx]

I agree. I think Google is planning something huge for when self-driving cars will start being used to ship stuff.

[jonnathanson]

Same-day delivery is the next big battle in the eCommerce space, but the real challenge isn't on the delivery end. It's on the logistics and supply chain end. Amazon has been investing heavily in distribution centers, inventory management, and fulfillment. (And even Amazon has a largely expensive, small, and inefficient distribution network as compared to, say, Walmart's).

As seamless as the front-ends of eCommerce have become, it's easy to forget how much brute force is still required on the operations side of the business.

Automated cars can make deliveries pretty easily, but they can't move merchandise in quantity between locations. The latter is the bigger barrier to scaling the system.

[ricw]

Of course they can move merchandise in quantity between locations. Faster, safer and cheaper than anything that currently exists. That's the whole point.

But nonetheless, a major distribution network needs to be in place before this can happen.. If you only want same day deliveries, you could do with maybe 20 centres in the USA and automated delivery vehicles, if you want 1-2 hour deliveries you have to be much closer. And that's where the battle for omnipresence will be won.

[ceejayoz]

> Automated cars can make deliveries pretty easily, but they can't move merchandise in quantity between locations.

Automated trucks sure as hell can...

[jonnathanson]

To and from where, though? That's the issue. The issue isn't the delivery vehicles; it's the inventory management. For Google, the most likely way around this problem will be as a service provider / aggregator for existing shops (similar to Amazon's affiliate program).

[ippisl]

Is it realistic that google will be the only self driving car company or even better by a large margin than others ? There are quite a few competitors today. And i think the u.s. government will highly oppose such situation, Since such situation is a clear and extreme concentration of power, seen from miles away.

It's hard for me to see it unfold this way.

[untog]

If Google partnered with local retailers to provide check-out via wallet and delivery via automated cars, it would disrupt more than just Amazon.

That's still hugely inefficient, though. The optimal solution is what Amazon does for most things- a giant, central warehouse with stuff that you deliver.

[_k]

Trains and airplanes are self-driving-flying but we do require them to have a driver.

[yoster]

I'm sorry but self-driving cars will not make any type of delivery. You obviously have not thought of even the simplest type of logistical delivery method. How would the package go from point A(the delivery vehicle), to point B(point of delivery). The simplest logistical standpoint of just getting out the vehicle and bringing the package to the residence is too advanced for any robot, anytime soon. A person can hop out, drop it off, and be on his/her way before a robot even gets to the curb. A self driving car with a person inside pretty much defeats the purpose of a self-driving vehicle.