[sterlind]

wouldn't stop AI companies from continuing to develop using their current infrastructure.

the West could retaliate by halting shipments of photoresist and other materials to China.

meanwhile, Intel second-sources Nvidia and starts pumping out GPUs.

the economic fallout would be devastating as trade wars and export bans on both sides make Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs look like NAFTA.

[chrismsimpson]

The rest of the world would likely side with China. The export ban on Fable wasn’t even extended to five eyes countries.

US is going to find itself isolated and irrelevant. And not a moment too soon.

[matheusmoreira]

I do wonder what the world will look like under a chinese hegemony though...

[marcus_holmes]

China is very inward-looking, though. It's not really interested in world domination in the same sense that Europe was or even the USA was/is.

[nativeit]

China has been aggressively developing infrastructure and financial services all over Africa and the rest of Asia.

https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106866

[marcus_holmes]

Yeah I saw this in Cambodia when I lived there. Sihanoukville had become a Chinese enclave almost completely.

Different to the way that French colonialism worked, though. Less direct government, more influence of existing power structures and respect for the local government.

There is definitely an argument that this is plain business investment - China has a lot of foreign currency to invest because of its trade surplus, and there isn't the opportunity within China to invest it all, so it is engaging with trade partners to invest in their economies so that they can increase future trade with China.

You can also make the argument that this is not benign and China is trying to create control over foreign governments with this investment.

I'm kinda "both can be true, but either are better than how we did it"

[Der_Einzige]

Go ask anyone in Southeast Asia which they'd rather have colonize them: USA or China.

They'll usually refer to China in terms like the "thousand year enemy".

[fakedang]

They've mostly been concerned with resource extraction rather than colonial exploitation like the West. And in fact, they've ditched most of their infra and tech projects in Africa, because of inherent instability in dealing with tinpot dictatorships.

On the other hand, every one in Asia is wary of too much Chinese presence and influence.

[fnord77]

resource extraction

stealth colonialism

[d5lt5]

The alternative is western colonialism Africa experienced before, and bombing campaigns.

[ninjin]

I keep hearing this and I fail to see any reason to believe that it will be the case. Any empire, in the history of our species, has always had an initial "inward-looking" period prior to becoming a full-fledged imperialist oppressor. Edo-period Japan into Imperial Japan, for example. Rather, what I think any budding empire needs a period of growth to become a large enough fish and also to delude its leadership and population into the convenient mindset that their flavour of imperialism is good and justified ("Hakkou ichiu", "The white man's burden", etc.).

To me, the PRC is at the very end of that process and I recommend anyone doubting this to go and read conversations and listen to the words of the populace that is turning increasingly nationalistic and you will hear the same old tales of revanchism and exceptionalism that we are used to hearing (during my recent visit, I watched the morning news every day for about a week and without fail a military inspection, new ship, new plane, etc. was presented each day). In addition, I think those outside of Asia are very much shielded from the early signs, but go and read about PRC influence and tensions in South Korea, Japan, RoC, Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, India, Pakistan, and Tajikistan and you will see something rather different than "inward-looking". To me, here the PRC is simply testing the waters for the extent of the influence of other powers and how far it can go. Likewise, we are seeing overseas naval bases being constructed which sure is an indication for a desire to project power outwards.

I want to believe that this time it will be different. I really do. Apologists around me say "It will only be Taiwan and the South China Sea, then then it will stop." and I would love to believe them. But can anyone truly internalise the narrative that international utopia will be spearheaded by a deeply authoritarian state that controls information like no other (and gladly exports that technology), disappears its own population at will, spins an increasingly strong nationalistic narrative, etc.? No, sorry, I think the "inward-looking" narrative is simply a convenient way for us to close our eyes and find comfort in ignorance, rather than in facts.

[marcus_holmes]

You may well be right, and it's really only that China has been more inward-looking recently, and given the chance it will spread its true colonial wings.

[ninjin]

Not sure if "colonial" is the right word though, as we should be careful to think that oppression always takes on the form we have seen in the past (US imperialist oppression for example did not take on the form of the colonialism that preceded it) . Also, be careful with "true" there. I do not think this is some sort of subterfuge, but rather an inherent weakness in us as a species. Vest power in anyone, and before long their morals will give way and an oppressor will be born.

The way I look at it, until Deng the PRC's economic policies and internal instability kept it from growing at the pace of many of its neighbours. Then we had an era of intense growth (which is still to some degree ongoing). However, as a reaction to this era Xi and others needed a narrative to counter the increased corruption and a new unifying myth to replace the cult of growth as the economy would stagnate at some point and could then call into question the authority of CCP to rule. Their choice of nationalism is what scares me and I know PRC citizens (even CCP members) that share this perspective and would rather have seen the Shanghai clique to have remained. It is possible that in this alternative reality we would still end up with "Imperialism with Chinese characteristics" ("中国特色帝国主义"?), but I chose to believe that at the very least the chances of this would have been smaller.

[brabel]

So let’s just guess what China will do once it becomes dominant and act like it already did whatever we conjured up they will do. That’s how you get preventive wars that destroy civilizations without any actual basis on reality.

[ninjin]

No, I do not think that is a fair portrayal of my position. Just like I will not say that your position is simply appeasement and hoping for the best. One must always be charitable in a discussion with strangers whose positions you do not fully understand.

Rather, I think we should look hard into ourselves and what is good and bad about the current world order. For example, the people of the RoC have the right to determine which direction they want to go. Regardless of the chauvinistic rhetoric coming out of Beijing. We should all stand up for this, because it is a universal right that we want everyone to enjoy. Similarly, we should push against the Eleven-dash line and support the 2013 ruling. The list goes on and I am sure these issues can be resolved without an outright war if we are careful, yet firm, in our beliefs and also diplomatically preemptive and thoughtful.

Being concerned about PRC imperialism should not be mistaken for the position that their people should "know their place" and be suppressed back to the stone age. They have the right to enjoy the fruits of their labour and pursue happiness, just like everyone else. We simply must be there to remind them (just like we must remind ourselves) that the course of humanity is a collective project if we are to stay clear of the darker sides of our nature as we venture together into the future.

[Khaine]

Except of course for claiming all of the South China seas. See the Nine-dash line

[elisbce]

"Not interested in world domination" LOL. That's what Putin said 10 years ago.

[gpvos]

It has been quite good at indebting countries to them, in Africa but also e.g. Montenegro.

[MaxPock]

Africans are more indebted to Western multilateral organizations and private Western bondholders than to the Chinese. The idea that Africans are being finessed by the Chinese is racist and stems from a "we know what's good for you" imperialistic lens.

[gpvos]

Interesting. I'm just relaying what I read in quality newspapers over here. And it's not just Africa. Anyway, you may be right. Do you have numbers?

[a34729t]

better dim sum, hopefully. the local chinese food is a crime against gastronomy.

[chrismsimpson]

You’re already seeing it. Strategic bilateralism.

[FooBarWidget]

It's called Tang and Ming dynasty. We already know.

[petre]

Keep an eye on Central Asia and Pakistan then? They are heavily infuenced by China.

[verdverm]

We are moving from unipolar hegemony to multipolar. There will be upwards of a dozen poles in time

[matheusmoreira]

Doubt. China is clearly on a level of its own compared to virtually every other country out there other than the USA.

[verdverm]

I find it unlikely to be a duoply of hegemony for long, some countries to watch are Germany, Japan, India, Nigeria, and Brazil. You could broaden the geography to continents were I expect major players to emerge on each.

We are only a few decades since the "end of history" and much has changed. What do things look like beyond 2050?

[matheusmoreira]

> Brazil

Brazil is basically the world's soy farm. It's at least half a century behind the times. I still have no idea how it managed to insert itself into the BRICS economic block. The notion that it's on the same level as China, India or Russia is just comical.

[greekrich92]

No worse than under US hegemony

[thesmtsolver2]

Much much worse: see Tibet or Hong Kong

[one33seven]

Vietnam, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan...

[tw1984]

care to explain why all governors of Hong Kong under the british rule were white males?

[Foobar8568]

Because the only period HK got a wind of freedom was after the signature of the retrocession still .... SARS.

[owebmaster]

How is Hong Kong worse than say, Puerto Rico?

[TheArcane]

certainly better than this one. Look at Africa under western neocolonialism vs China's infrastructure loans

[thesmtsolver2]

As someone from India and someone who knows people from Tibet, Chinese hegemony will be much much worse.

There is no HN equivalent in China where users advocate that US hegemony will be better.

[alightsoul]

On the other hand, India is enemies with China and Tibet is a highly oppressed region. I wonder what the average Chinese in china thinks.

[ido]

The average German in Nazi Germany probably didnt think the Nazis were too bad either (of course the average citizen wasn't Jewish, gay, communist or other undesirables). That the average Chinese think things are “just fine” doesn’t mean they are.

[lenerdenator]

And that's going just swimmingly [0]

[0] https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/chinese-manager-beats... (possibly NSFW, I can't see the video in my browser but be warned)

[vhantz]

There is no good imperialist power, there is no capitalism with a human face, there will never be. The UK murdered millions in India, Ireland and all around the world in their time. The US did the same. The only reason China isn't openly doing the same right now is because they are still the underdog and they still need cordiality to get through the door, just like the UK and the US did in their time. The solution is to rid the world of imperialism and capitalism as a whole. As long as there is a profit motive running through everything, international relations will be in the form of wars (military or economic). Only under socialism can the people of the world truly pool their resources together to build up instead of destroying each other.

[pmontra]

You would have to eradicate the desire to command other people. The wish for power which is different from the wish to be praised, as forcing somebody to do something is different from convincing somebody to do something.

[CaptWorld]

There are no good imperialists but it's a spectrum where western capitalist colonies fare much better than eastern communist colonies because capitalism and democracy is the engine for economic growth and western colonies fared much better than eastern ones. What's a better system than capitalism for imperialism? Socialism? Weren't they also pretty brutal imperialists? Japanese imperialists alone make western ones look like amateurs.

[soperj]

China would just start buying oil again, and stop using it from their strategic reserve. Hello $200 barrels of oil.

[verdverm]

> the West could retaliate by halting shipments of

China quickly retaliated last time by stopping shipments of rare earths and magnets. The West has no answer for this, really up the river without a paddle for such critical supply chain elements.

[0cf8612b2e1e]

I was led to believe that the US does have internal sources of these, but they are largely undeveloped. For years the processing could not economically compete with China so shutdown.

Which is to say, given internal subsidies, the US could eventually produce some on its own.

Unless I misunderstood the situation.

[verdverm]

I believe we both share this understanding, the problems are

1. China controls ~90% today

2. The US will find it difficult to build out because of how dirty and environmentally damaging mining and processing are.

I did see some research last week about a better way to process rare earths, but it is still research and will need to be industrialized.

Regardless, it will take many years (decade+?) to become self sufficient and China is already willing to and increasingly restricting them

[verdverm]

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49084690

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-may-need-allo...

[tw1984]

China controls way more things, from medical needles to pharmaceutical ingredient.

Lots of them can be made in the west or west friendly countries, but that takes time, money, infrastructure and good execution. Yes, identical to what is covered in China's belt and road initiatives. See the gap now?