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by wxw 3 days ago
I strongly believe Apple can win the consumer AI space. They have incredible distribution and hardware. They just haven’t executed at the application layer yet.
6 comments

what's worrisome is that they continue to fail at it. it's one thing to say "we're still hashing things out". it's another to parade around Image Generation features that are obviously widely not-cared-for and oftentimes actively disliked

Apple cares greatly about their brand yet this has hurt their brand like nothing else in the past decade

It’s worrisome, but it’s also worth pointing out that no one else has succeeded at it, or even gotten close. It’s easy to forget that there are not good well-integrated person AI solutions yet, it’s just chat bots. I think it’s just harder than a lot of people think it is.
I think it's fair to say that OpenAI has at least partially won the "consumer AI" segment.
Yeah but OpenAI isn't building phones. The real winning would be Google's deep integration of Gemini into all of their products.

Also, even when you DO get AI into products, consumers might not like them. The overuse of copilot led to a barrage of Microslop jokes, for example

I would expect Apple to hedge their bet on Gemini and build everything so that the model can be swapped out in the future.
absolutely agree.

but Apple isn't known to make grand promises and then not keep them, is it..? usually they just deliver what they say they will

yet i've been reading about "well they promised AI Siri two years ago and Siri still can't set an alarm right" in every thread even remotely related to the topic

i don't remember reading this much about anything else. it seems to have soured people quite a bit, at least in my internet bubble

Apple hurt their brand so much. That the five ecosystems all work together better than anyone else.

And the Mac Neo is a best seller. Yep they really hurt themselves?

The only thing hurting Apple right now is memory like everyone else out there all because of the AI data center fiasco.

on the other hand failing at it or pushing it to the edges until they figure out where if anywhere it would actually make sense (which is I believe the entire crux of their strategy) might equally reasonably be helping their brand.

I don't see strong evidence the average consumer is demanding 'AI features' in everything. I mean even amongst the technically inclined this is often bemoaned, anecdotally.

thats exactly what i'm saying they should be doing, but aren't. we're in agreement!!

why don't they just wait and not ship any AI junk at all? instead of promising a Siri AI rework, which then doesn't deliver? or Image Generation stuff that feels wildly put of character and generates tasteless and often downright creepy images?

not to mention that all of the new AI stuff they announced won't go live in China and the EU for a while.

why not do exactly what you proposed and wait it out? instead they seem to be trying to deliver AI stuff and just unable to.

there's also reports that apple execs held a secret emergency "oh shit what do we do about AI" type meeting.

they very much didn't intend to be this behind

Image generation seems like table stakes though, i.e. if you're going to offer a whole ass AI integrated with your operating system, it'd seem like a weird omission not to have image generation included.
i dont agree at all. image generation feels very odd for Apple.

and usually they don't care about glaring omissions like this, either: iPadOS was lacking a calculator for yeeeeaaaars.

they repeatedly said they'd ship a calculator if they can do something special for its introduction, and only then.

so why did they lose their hesitancy to ship mediocre stuff here?

That's true, good point. Maybe they just wanted it for the memoji/iMessage possibilities?
Probably. It just feels so out of character. Especially the fact that it can't be safeguarded and generate sexual innuendos, for example, which Apple usually hates.

I'm not even entirely against genmoji. It's just odd for Apple to do.

Apple currently probably has a longer planning horizon than the catholic church.
If anything, shipping and sitting on the previous incarnation of Siri as a basic feature set to shut up iPhone users for a few years while everything else matured might be viewed as a very shrewd move ten years from now.
That's one way of looking at it. Alternatively; Apple had their pick of the litter at TSMC for half a decade, and Nvidia beat them to 5 trillion total valuation with their design chops alone.
There comes a point at which these execs cannot have more yachts. Apple still wields far more societal influence than Nvidia does, and will for a long time to come; and of course there's nothing stopping them from forming a partnership and putting Nvidia chips into an Apple device if it came down to it.
> it's another to parade around Image Generation features that are obviously widely not-cared-for and oftentimes actively disliked

I mean, that was one of many things, and I'd argue the least interesting by far. If the Safari extension creation thing is decent at all, that's a seriously cool addition. There's some real value shown in this most recent WWDC. Whether they actually release it this time is another question...

I mean have they, they have an outright majority share in iPhones in some markets, including the US, and lots of other stuff that sells reliably. Granted, I'm sure they'd love to have another blockbuster product, but having what amounts to "utility" status for a $1000 device isn't too bad.
Rest assured when they do have it figured out, we'll learn how they invented LLMs and AI chatbots.
ironically they respect user privacy the most and collect the least amount of data that’s why they lag behind ai i don’t understand why you would expect them to win
> I strongly believe Apple can win the consumer AI space.

Why? What strengths and structural advantages do you think thy have?

What black swan situation could arise that Apple cannot counter?

I just can’t imagine another computing device from a competitor company that 1) threatens the smartphone 2) apple couldn’t copy and mass produce at higher quality

If there’s truly an existential threat to its device business, Copy Well

The company that will challenge Apple will be one that possesses the capability to develop both an operating system and hardware at a high level right now, who is this company? There is one company that may one day, but that company isn’t in the west and no, it isn’t Nvidia.
North Korea
Well they better start executing soon
Apple has built the strongest ecosystem of AI-capable consumer products in the industry. I suspect they deliberately chose not to compete in the AI data center race. Entering that arena would have cannibalized sales of their own high-margin devices, while further straining their already tight supply chain for memory and M-series processors.

Apple would never willingly pay Nvidia for GPUs anyway.

Why absorb supply chain pricing pressures and volatility when you can pass those costs directly to the consumer?

Apple has over-promised and under-delivered so many times in this space, going back to the launch of the original Siri.

So while they could win, it’s pretty hard to get hyped about it before we see real-world tests.

What’s real world test phoning home to the server if Google can make a Pixel look good by phoning home what do you think it’s gonna be different with an iPhone that six years ahead in the processor area? When it phones home?
Most people don't care that Siri doesn't do very much; if anything, people outside of HN are already sorta sick of AI features being shoved in their face.
Siri has always been pretty useful for the things I use it for: setting timers and reminders, and turning off my lights after I'm in bed.
Agree 100% ... but it would be nice to have some softer edges around those things, where I don't have to be so prescriptive and robotic in the way I make such requests. For example if I set a 15 minute timer, I'd like to be able to follow up five minutes later with "actually that 15 minute timer should have been 16 minutes" and not second guess whether it will do the correct thing.