[AdieuToLogic]

> Everyone’s talking about an oil price spike if stocks are depleted ...

Oil prices are determined by expected future cost and are only influenced by national reserves in the short-term.

> ... but the heavy backwardation of crude oil futures tells a completely different story.

This assertion is belied by Brent oil prices since the beginning of 2026[0].

> There was a press release by Exxon a couple of days ago with claims of prices hitting 150.

Again, referring to the cited Brent oil trading price[0], it has already hit 118 twice this year.

> People have been making similar claims for months, but it hasn’t happened. The forward curve has been backwardated for quite a while now.

This is demonstrably incorrect, as previously identified.

0 - https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?op...

[d4ng]

Oil prices are indeed determined by the expected future cost, including expected future reserves, and not only current reserves. Futures expiries extend quite far. Where does your short term reserves claim come from? Genuinely interested.

Regarding 118, this is about probability. Given we're at 96 and backwardated? What is the probability that we hit 150?

[AdieuToLogic]

> Where does your short term reserves claim come from? Genuinely interested.

Familial experience in one of the major US energy (oil) corporations headquartered in east Texas.

> Regarding 118, this is about probability. Given we're at 96 and backwardated?

The 118 peaks are separated by 4 weeks and the local minima of 92 from a week ago has already risen to almost 98 as of 6/3 close-of-business. This does not support a backwardation trend and, instead, could be reasonably identified as the beginning of another spike.

> What is the probability that we hit 150?

This is a question energy executives must answer. Fortunately, one did:

  The price of physical Brent oil cargoes will spike to $150 
  to $160 per barrel when inventories hit all-time lows in 
  coming weeks, the executive said. “When the price gets to a 
  certain level, demand destruction brings it back into 
  balance,” he said.[0]

0 - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/oil-inventory-exxon-strait-h...

[d4ng]

So what do you think the true reason is that the market is so backwardated? (another genuine question)

[AdieuToLogic]

> So what do you think the true reason is that the market is so backwardated?

It is not.

The only way to support a backwardation claim is to ignore the 24 months of pre-war market behavior. If analysis is limited to the last three calendar weeks, then the local minima might be called a backwardation.

Problem is, there are no geopolitical, market demand, and/or military indicators to support this point in time being an actual backwardation.